Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Pennsylvania: Lackadaisical Liveblog

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2009-09-06T05:20:15.511-04:00

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2009-02-10T06:43:00.000-05:00

Your projection was splendid. All the more reaso...

2008-04-24T00:10:00.000-04:00

Your projection was *splendid*. All the more reason to ponder the tiny +1.3 gap as (just possibly) of interest. As a matter of logic, this gap is a combination of local campaign effects and of hidden variables which your projection ignores. Now, one would tend to think the campaign effect should be +Obama since your projection is based on a series of events whose background was national polls where Obama and Clinton were at best (for Obama) tied, whereas PA took place when Obama is clearly ahead in national polls; this should count for something. Thus one should look for hidden variables. Whatever they are, they seem to be located mostly at the PA White educated (which, I understand, stand out as White not improving for Obama over OH). Now, 2.3% Jewish general population is perhaps 10% educated voters in a Democratic Primary, which may begin to move numbers. And the Jewish educated voters are certainly worse for Obama than the general white educated voters. All of which however is I have to admit rather weak since what really counts is the differential of Jewish population between PA and OH, which is quite small (even when magnified to the levels of percentages of educated white Democratic primary voters).

So when do you post the Poblano projections for the remaining contests? Indeed, did you post the Poblano projections for past contests, to help us in our search for hidden variables?

IIRC, Obama did fine among the Jewish vote, losing...

2008-04-23T17:12:00.000-04:00

IIRC, Obama did fine among the Jewish vote, losing it something like 51/44.

I'm really quite pleased with the projection -- we had Clinton winning by 7.8 points and she actually won by 9.1. That's more accurate than 8 of the 10 polls of the state.

Here are my predictions again (crossposted at poll...

2008-04-23T16:07:00.000-04:00

Here are my predictions again (crossposted at pollster.com)

And Indiana and NC have virtually nothing to do with Electability- because Indiana is red and will prbably stay red- and it does not harm Obamas electability argument when he wins NC by 10 points- or did it harm Clintons PA-OH electability argument when she won there by that margin?

I think you can predict the outcome of primaries pretty well with 538 numbers:
Clinton average-Obama average*3 or if black population>20%: (Black Population*0,9*1,8+(95-BlackPopulation*1,8)*0,25*+5*0,55)

If I had to predict the margin of victories in the past-Super-Tuesday PRIMARIES (caucuses are a different thing) I would come to this results:

Maryland:
29*1,8*0,9= 47+
48*0,25=12+
5*0,55= 2,75
=
61,75% for Obama (margin: 23,5)
actual margin: 23

Virginia:
(this is a little bit critical �cause the AA-population is 19,6%)
13,2 average (for McCain-Clinton)-6,3 average (McCain-Obama)*3= 20,7% margin for Obama
"real" margin: 29%

The problem here is, that the election is 2 months ago and Obama lost ground against McCain. i guess the prediction would come closer to the real result just with the polls older than 12 February...

Wisconsin:
=
2,9 (C average) - (-3,2) (O average) *3=

18,3%-margin for Obama
"real margin": 17%

Ohio:
(-2,9)-2,1*3= 15% margin for Clinton
actual result: 10% margin

this is a bit to high, but here the same pattern: Clinton improved since the election. I wouldn�t wonder when she won a 2nd primary with 15%.

Texas:
1,6*3=4,8% margin for Clinton
real margin: 4%

Mississippi:
37*0,9*1,8+68,06*0,25+5*0,55=
40% margin Obama-
actual result: 24% margin.

OK, this is far off and i don�t have any idea why. I know why, the turnout of black voters was just about 37% in a state with a 36,66% AA-population. But I don�t know why that happened. Probably an outlier... Anyone here who knows why the MS-blacks stayed at home?

Pennsylvania:

-3-0,2*3= 9,6% margin for Clinton. Actual it is 9,4% as far as I know.

Lets summarize:
This is the difference between the "real" margin of victories-Obama:Clinton and my predictions:

Maryland: 0,5% (really good, I think)
Virginia: 8,3% (far off, but I already explained why that happened. The state has 0,4% LESS African-American Population than I needed to use the other formula...)
Wisconsin: 1,3% ( I can live very good with anything below 2,5%, I think ... )
Ohio: 5% (a little bit off, but Clinton improved in OH since 3/4)
TX: 0,8% (again, pretty close to the actual results)
MS: 16% off (a disaster for me, I assumed about 55-60% AA-turnout with my formula, but it was less than 40% in the state with the biggest black community)
PA: 0,2% off (and I made this prediction first on 4/16- six days before the election.)

Here my prediction for NC:
52,5 Obama: 47,5% Clinton.
This is definetly too close. Why?
Because whites tend to vote more heavily for Clinton when there is a big black population and my formula covers that in a simple way.

In NC the black population has the ideal size for Obama. ENough to give him a big boost, and small enough to give him 40% of the white vote- or more.

Maybe I should increase the minimum size of AA population for using the 2nd formula to 25%.

Then I had to use the first formula and would get out:
56,15% Obama 43,85% Clinton
Maybe still a little bit too less, but i think this could be in a 2,5% range of the actual results.

Indiana:
Obama: 56,9% Clinton 41,1%
Either the Republicans love Obama in that state, the polls are dramatically wrong, or we�ll see a surprise in the primary there.

I also predict that he will get slain in WV, Clinton could get to 74% there, and in KY he is doing SO bad that my predictions can�t be right. When they are right, he would be in danger to fall below the 15% threshold...

But just look at the latest KY-SUSA poll: Clinton is competitive, he trails by 34 (!) points. Those both states have the largest margins of all 50 states- maybe he could win a Wyoming primary by a similar margin, but that was it.

For Oregon I�d predict a 63-37 Obama win.
Obama is doing a lot better against McCain in Indiana than Clinton (so much to the Electability argument)

This philly cheese steak is YUMMY...mmmmmmmmm

2008-04-23T15:32:00.000-04:00

This philly cheese steak is YUMMY...mmmmmmmmm

The special appeal to the latter vote may explain ...

2008-04-23T13:44:00.000-04:00

The special appeal to the latter vote may explain Clinton's "obliterate Iran" declaration in the final days of the campaign. But more likely that was aimed at showing she was tough than at winning over the relatively small Jewish vote in PA.

Check this for population estimates by state: http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/US-Israel/usjewpop.html

Are you going to write a post analyzing your proje...

2008-04-23T12:23:00.000-04:00

Are you going to write a post analyzing your projection in light of the results? I thought the higher turnout could explain a lot; also one notes a somewhat better than expected HRC in suburban/educated, which may perhaps be a result of a small but meaningful factor you did not use, namely Jewish vote?

Yep, I posted that first 4/16

2008-04-23T08:06:00.000-04:00

Yep, I posted that first 4/16

People usually like to hear predictions before eve...

2008-04-23T02:59:00.000-04:00

People usually like to hear predictions before events occur Rasmus.

Hi,anyone interested in hearing my prediction for ...

2008-04-23T02:11:00.000-04:00

Hi,
anyone interested in hearing my prediction for Pennsylvania (the actual result is 9,4%)?

.... 9,6% ....
.... 9,6% ....
.... 9,6% ....

It seems that my simpla formula of (average Clinton - average Obama)*3
is not so bad...

Montgomery County looks like it might be about to ...

2008-04-22T23:26:00.000-04:00

Montgomery County looks like it might be about to turn.

Yeah, but the exit polls broke remarkably close to...

2008-04-22T23:23:00.000-04:00

Yeah, but the exit polls broke remarkably close to neighboring Ohio for almost every subgroup. Which at least suggests that the Wright and bitter controversies didn't have much impact other than perhaps ceasing his momentum.

Obama did what he had to do in Philly, but those C...

2008-04-22T23:13:00.000-04:00

Obama did what he had to do in Philly, but those Clinton margins in the northeast and Southwest are killing him. Much higher than polls showed there.

Pedantic nitpick here.It's spelled Allegheny, not ...

2008-04-22T23:12:00.000-04:00

Pedantic nitpick here.

It's spelled Allegheny, not Alleghany. Check your charts and tables.

Yeah...from the exit polls I predicted a 53-47 mar...

2008-04-22T23:03:00.000-04:00

Yeah...from the exit polls I predicted a 53-47 margin. We'll see if he can narrow it to that.

Almost 10 pm Central, and the very first Chester C...

2008-04-22T23:00:00.000-04:00

Almost 10 pm Central, and the very first Chester County results trickle in: Obama, 55-45. He could make up some ground in the wee hours.

Since your demographic model seems to have Pennsyl...

2008-04-22T22:55:00.000-04:00

Since your demographic model seems to have Pennsylvania spot on (7 to 8% Clinton advantage), can you do a preliminary projection for Indiana and NC using the same model? It's proved itself as a baseline.

FWIW: I posted that comment about 5 minutes into h...

2008-04-22T22:40:00.000-04:00

FWIW: I posted that comment about 5 minutes into her address, and I think she lost some steam in the middle. But I think she's hitting largely the right tone for heading into Indiana, even if she needs to cut down on the sap factor a bit.

""I think Clinton is hitting her marks in her vict...

2008-04-22T22:31:00.000-04:00

""I think Clinton is hitting her marks in her victory address.""

It might not matter. David Gergen made a good point on CNN tonight that I've actually been thinking about for a few days now.

He said that even if superdelegates do in fact find Hillary electable and Barack not, they may still have little choice but to nominate him, even if it means sacrificing the election to save the party. Because if Barack leads in pledged delegates, popular vote, and states won, and they still take it from Barack and give it to Hillary, they'd lose black votes and young votes in droves, and no Democrat in the past 40 years has won the white vote in presidential elections - not even Clinton or Carter. They may sacrifice the election to save the party, because they'll be thinking about congressional seats, and also ahead to a reapportionment in 2010, because red counties are growing faster than blue ones, and have been for decades. And they'll need those black votes and young votes to hold on to Congress.

She seems to have a flat affect; sort of mildly di...

2008-04-22T22:29:00.000-04:00

She seems to have a flat affect; sort of mildly disappointed.

The last anon comment was obviously directed at Po...

2008-04-22T22:20:00.000-04:00

The last anon comment was obviously directed at Poblano.

I know. And Allegheny is solid Clinton territory n...

2008-04-22T22:16:00.000-04:00

I know. And Allegheny is solid Clinton territory now with 70% of precints reporting. It was not a prediction. I just wanted to say that the race was still to early to call at that moment in my opinion.

A bit early to tout your prediction with virtually...

2008-04-22T21:21:00.001-04:00

A bit early to tout your prediction with virtually no Allegheny votes in.

Allegheny is (with about 1200 votes in or so) at 5...

2008-04-22T21:21:00.000-04:00

Allegheny is (with about 1200 votes in or so) at 57-43 Obama.
Philly now 55-45, Delaware a tie.

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Pennsylvania: Lackadaisical Liveblog

艾葳酒店經紀公司提供專業的酒店經紀, 飯局小姐,領檯人員,領台,傳播妹,或者想要到台北酒店、林森北路...

情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,...

Your projection was *splendid*. All the more reaso...

IIRC, Obama did fine among the Jewish vote, losing...

Here are my predictions again (crossposted at poll...

This philly cheese steak is YUMMY...mmmmmmmmm

The special appeal to the latter vote may explain ...

Are you going to write a post analyzing your proje...

Yep, I posted that first 4/16

People usually like to hear predictions before eve...

Hi,anyone interested in hearing my prediction for ...

Montgomery County looks like it might be about to ...

Yeah, but the exit polls broke remarkably close to...

Obama did what he had to do in Philly, but those C...

Pedantic nitpick here.It's spelled Allegheny, not ...

Yeah...from the exit polls I predicted a 53-47 mar...

Almost 10 pm Central, and the very first Chester C...

Since your demographic model seems to have Pennsyl...

FWIW: I posted that comment about 5 minutes into h...

""I think Clinton is hitting her marks in her vict...

She seems to have a flat affect; sort of mildly di...

The last anon comment was obviously directed at Po...

I know. And Allegheny is solid Clinton territory n...

A bit early to tout your prediction with virtually...

Allegheny is (with about 1200 votes in or so) at 5...

Your projection was splendid. All the more reaso...