Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: How Early Voting Changed the Game in 2008

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2009-10-02T08:30:34.477-04:00

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2009-10-02T08:29:31.972-04:00

借金返済に特化した弁護士が作成した、知っておくと役に立つキャッシングの知識を習得できるページです。キ...

2009-07-16T23:33:25.627-04:00

借金返済に特化した弁護士が作成した、知っておくと役に立つキャッシングの知識を習得できるページです。キャッシングの種類、基礎知識、トラブル予防・解決策、金利をめぐる法改正と支払金額、過払い金・ブラックリストなどのキーワード解説から構成しています。

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2009-03-12T06:15:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-12T06:15:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-09T21:55:00.000-05:00

I was a poll watcher in a reasonably affluent Repu...

2008-11-05T03:27:00.000-05:00

I was a poll watcher in a reasonably affluent Republican-leaning precinct in a Denver suburb. Out of boredom, one of the election judges counted the number of people who hadn't voted early or received a mail-in ballot: about 300 of a precinct size around 1400. From two precincts in the church, only about 300 people voted in person.

Colorado (or at least Jefferson County) has really reached out for voter convenience: voters can sign up to be on the "Permanent mail-in ballot list." And it's probably a good thing; we had 16 ballot measures, a dozen presidential candidates, and several local races. It takes a few hours at home to figure that all out, so you might as well fill out the ballot when it's fresh.

WV: reldfac - a Red State FAQ written by someone who's really drunk

"22.5% of Americans cast their vote early in 2004,...

2008-11-05T02:01:00.000-05:00

"22.5% of Americans cast their vote early in 2004, and if that number held true for this election"

Why would you assume the percentage held constant? That obviously was completely wrong.

/If you were right about this, GA would have went Obama, and I'd be even happier right now.

Too much traffic---sight dying

2008-11-04T18:47:00.000-05:00

Too much traffic---sight dying

15 MINUTES UNTIL THE REAL JOE SURPRISEwv - gulfo -...

2008-11-04T18:42:00.000-05:00

15 MINUTES UNTIL THE REAL JOE SURPRISE

wv - gulfo - what i'll be crossing if mccain wins

Hey again from St. Joe co. IN., having delivered v...

2008-11-04T18:30:00.001-05:00

Hey again from St. Joe co. IN., having delivered voters to poll booths. good turnout here. I wonder how many out there know of places such as "Michiana" and "Illiana"? Well, it would be instructive to find out. NW In is such places. St. Joe Co is Michiana (along with Berrian Co in Mich, N of here). BO has had a very strong organization here. Given the strong Dem tilt in Mich and Ill, Michiana and Illiana (together lost about 250,000 jobs past two yrs) may well decide who wins Indiana. Thats mostly Indiana counties at the top, reading L to R (with major metros)- Lake (East Chicago, Hammond, Gary), Porter (Portage), LaPorte (La Porte, Michigan City), St. Joseph (South Bend, Mishawaka), Elkhart (Elkhart). Watch these to see how Indiana goes [if any one cares, that is - for a fire red state like IN, usually not].

I get a big kick out of these Republicans who are ...

2008-11-04T18:30:00.000-05:00

I get a big kick out of these Republicans who are saying that the high voter turnout will help McCain. They remind me of "Baghdad Bob" from 2003.

So amusing...

I'm not worried at all about those exit polls in V...

2008-11-04T18:27:00.000-05:00

I'm not worried at all about those exit polls in VA. We knew white males and late deciders were going to break for McCain. It's the hispanic/black/women voters that are going to vote him in.

Plus exit polls in the state are incredibly weighted by where they were polling. Within the same city there can be one precinct that is overwhelmingly repub in a sea of dems.

VA will go blue.

Garnett/136 said... @jj and Servius: You are cu...

2008-11-04T18:25:00.000-05:00

Garnett/136 said...

@jj and Servius: You are currently engaged in the academic equivalent of a slapfight. It is making you both look bad. Stop it.

Its cool Garnett. I've made my point, and I'll ignore him from now on. Good Call.

Back to exit polls.

97% of pollers in Florida say that the sun will rise in the east tomorrow. 1% undecided.

@jj and Servius: You are currently engaged in the ...

2008-11-04T18:21:00.000-05:00

@jj and Servius: You are currently engaged in the academic equivalent of a slapfight. It is making you both look bad. Stop it.

it's crazy, for every troll disappearing back into...

2008-11-04T18:20:00.000-05:00

it's crazy, for every troll disappearing back into agony there's a new one appearing. The problem is they've tried all kinds of different BS and it still won't work...

New exit p[oll. 80% of McDonells customers in Virg...

2008-11-04T18:18:00.000-05:00

New exit p[oll. 80% of McDonells customers in Virginia said that they were "big boned"

el oso broke character, nvm....

2008-11-04T18:17:00.000-05:00

el oso broke character, nvm....

Drudge: TOO CLOSE TO CALL AT CLOSE: FL, IN, OH...M...

2008-11-04T18:15:00.000-05:00

Drudge: TOO CLOSE TO CALL AT CLOSE: FL, IN, OH...
MCCAIN KEEPING AZ... DEVELOPING...

Note: He doesn't mention Virginia!

Blogger Servius said... @jj History and Cla...

2008-11-04T18:14:00.001-05:00

Blogger Servius said...

@jj

History and Classical Studies here. I know who Homer is. Go be snotty somewhere else.

I found college got in the way of an education

Homer was

Was.

I said I was not talking about the Simpsons character.

FFS if you don't know who I'm talking about go to Wiki and fake it rather than make some BS non denial denial insult.

What am I talking about In your insult you said you knew who he IS but didn't mention who he was in the hope I would not call you on it. But your concience gave it away when you typed IS

Heres where you geep up your pathetic insult BS by calling me delusional. And you response after that will be to say you are sorry for me. AND you wont ever make a response to what I said

Namely you mentioned authors that noone had heard of, never mentioned what they actually said. claimed superiority and told someone else to go and read then knowing you will be dead and gone when they realise you were talking Bullshi, and then when someone calls you on it you claim equivelent education ina lame attempt to stay in superiour position, except you f****d that up too

Yes this is me laughing my head of at you, you sad pathetic little man.

Are el oso and troll!petekent the same person? >.>...

2008-11-04T18:14:00.000-05:00

Are el oso and troll!petekent the same person? >.>

PA should be DEM if the voting problems in urban a...

2008-11-04T18:13:00.000-05:00

PA should be DEM if the voting problems in urban areas don't hurt them too much.

collou - Mispelling of popular children's cartoon Caillou

servius, El Oso, you guys won't get along so just ...

2008-11-04T18:12:00.000-05:00

servius, El Oso, you guys won't get along so just cut it

@ pentkent the real -- We can tell the difference ...

2008-11-04T18:11:00.000-05:00

@ pentkent the real -- We can tell the difference between the two of you. Your sockpuppet is like the embodiment of Triumph the Insult Dog. You can tell it's him because every post he ends by yelling, "FOR ME TO POOP ON!"

All the caveats (incomplete data on exit polls so ...

2008-11-04T18:10:00.001-05:00

All the caveats (incomplete data on exit polls so far, they might show Dem bias, might underrepresent early voters)

Taking the % of voters on each of the 3 top issues broken down so far (economy, Iraq, terrorism) - that part of those surveyed would be Obama 46%, McCain 35%.

I have not seen a breakdown on health care (9% 1st issue) but that will be huge for Obama.

And what the top issue for the other 10% we do not know.

But likely the early horserace exit survey so far shows around a 10% PV lead.