Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Today's Polls, 5/18

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2009-09-09T02:27:18.218-04:00

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2009-06-17T11:55:59.656-04:00

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2009-06-17T11:55:45.774-04:00

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2009-03-26T23:13:00.000-04:00

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2009-03-18T07:20:00.000-04:00

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2009-03-11T04:13:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-11T04:13:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-25T21:44:00.000-05:00

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2009-02-11T22:43:00.000-05:00

"Very interesting work, thanks. I'm trying as an e...

2008-05-20T14:20:00.000-04:00

"Very interesting work, thanks. I'm trying as an example to understand the Swing State Analysis table. For e.g. PA Obama vs. McCain is 13.5% (size of the former's projected victory there I take it), while HRC vs Obama is 5.4%. The poll detail table however has HRC winning the state in 20% more trials than Obama. Am I misinterpreting something?"

Yes. The Swing State Analysis just chows the percentage of elections, where the state "swings" the election: Puts the Democrat over the top.

Folks, this is Monte Carlo analysis, not ordinary ...

2008-05-19T23:03:00.000-04:00

Folks, this is Monte Carlo analysis, not ordinary "what if" games. Some extremely improbable (but statistically possible) results are included, if you look at the distribution curves you see results from 30 EV to 480, with a clustering in the center.

So saying "there's no way Obama wins an EV from NE" is not accurately depicting what the model shows, which is that he *can*, with various probabilities.

Anyway, this is not going to be a repeat of the last 4 elections. Obama is not going to be pouring $100M+ into Ohio and Florida. Every state is a potential pickup opportunity. If a GOP governor gets caught hosting an orgy for the entire GOP congressional delegation, Obama's going to be in position to take advantage of that and flip the state, with an organization on the ground with contingency plans.

Agree or disagree with the strategy, it's irrelevant: That's the game plan for November. And it's not relevant to Poblano's projection system, which is not inherently biased.

Very interesting work, thanks. I'm trying as an e...

2008-05-19T14:33:00.000-04:00

Very interesting work, thanks. I'm trying as an example to understand the Swing State Analysis table. For e.g. PA Obama vs. McCain is 13.5% (size of the former's projected victory there I take it), while HRC vs Obama is 5.4%. The poll detail table however has HRC winning the state in 20% more trials than Obama. Am I misinterpreting something?

Why do you use 251 Electoral Votes for Kerry? The ...

2008-05-19T14:28:00.000-04:00

Why do you use 251 Electoral Votes for Kerry? The states he carried cast 252 electoral votes, but one of his electors voted for Edwards instead.

It would be neat if there was some way to tag vari...

2008-05-19T14:20:00.000-04:00

It would be neat if there was some way to tag various comments as numerically sound and other as innumerate.

Brandon: consider a baseball team. Consider its average margin of victory. Now consider its winning percentage. These are different things, right? And it's completely possible that a team could win more than half of its games while still scoring fewer runs than its opponents, right?

Don't go around accusing people of bias when you're math is completely wrong.

Semblence,You actually had it right the first time...

2008-05-19T14:09:00.000-04:00

Semblence,

You actually had it right the first time. Each state delegation gets only one vote for President (according to Amendment XII) if the decision falls to the House. But, as David points out, the math still favors the Democrats in that case as well.

Jay, you're right about the correlation, it seems ...

2008-05-19T10:41:00.000-04:00

Jay, you're right about the correlation, it seems to me. Another way this is reflected in the model indirectly is in the "baseline" demographic comparison which serves as one "poll."

Regarding the Bradley Effect, Poblano has written on this a couple of times and does find a regional difference. Click on the "Best of" tab at the top of the page. Perhaps he should retitle that tab 'Research.'

do your simulations take into account the fact tha...

2008-05-19T10:26:00.000-04:00

do your simulations take into account the fact that results in states are highly correlated?

Of course they do, and without any clever statistical trickery. The polls that are source data are correlated in the same way as the election itself will be. So as voters learn about more about McCain and Obama picks up ground or voters continue to be fooled by the media and McCain picks up ground, this will show in the head to head poll numbers.

To the degree that they are correlated, all the poll numbers will move together.

(One thing to worry about is Sirota's race chasm claim and the Wilder effect. It could be that the relationship between poll numbers and actual votes may vary by state racial composition. This is a side study that Poblano could do. If it turned out to be true--more wilder effect in MS than in IA--he could add a dummy for the race chasm to his model.)

And he is just a slight underdog in OH- nothing no...

2008-05-19T00:14:00.000-04:00

And he is just a slight underdog in OH- nothing noteworthy six months before the election. THe unity bounce, even when it should be weak, will solve this problem.
It´s a Clinton state, and some blue collar workers defected to McCain (or to not voting), I think. Even now Obama is now a slight underdog. Some Clinton campaigning and ads and an endorsement will do that.

I'd just like to state my thanks for this amazing ...

2008-05-18T22:10:00.000-04:00

I'd just like to state my thanks for this amazing website and resource. Unfortunately, I'm no statistician so I'll leave the discussion to those who are unless I can say something intelligent. The genuine lack of bias is refreshing.

To all the folks who are still thinking about OHIO...

2008-05-18T20:36:00.000-04:00

To all the folks who are still thinking about OHIO and FLORIDA as the swing states for this election year 2008... I am sorry to say that you folks are living in caves.....
Because Obama, unlike Clinton, is playing 50 state strategy (actually 48 strategy, since he 'purposely conceded' Kentucky and West Virginia), he will go on to hit 270 EV by winning Iowa, Nebraska, Nevada, Missouri, Michigan, Colorado, Oregon, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Minnesota and possibly Virginia and North Carolina.

Iowa, New Mexico, and Nevada al seem very possible...

2008-05-18T20:28:00.000-04:00

Iowa, New Mexico, and Nevada al seem very possible (if not probable) pickups for Obama -- and if they happened with no other changes, the 269-269 EVs would send the election into the House of Representatives.

I do not think Colorado will end up in Obama's column because an initiative to ban affirmative action will be on the ballot there.

A McCain pickup of NH would throw off the Obama calculus.

Obama will never pick up Nebraska electoral votes. In the beauty contest primary last week, Obama barely edged Hillary, showing his lopsided caucus win was a false indicator of his NE popularity.

Oops!I see that anonymous got the jump on me with ...

2008-05-18T19:05:00.000-04:00

Oops!

I see that anonymous got the jump on me with his analysis of the non-OH Obama win.

Frankly I think McCain is such a weak candidate, and he is tied so closely to the most unpopular president since WWII, that Obama will probably win with between 310 and 340 EV.

Empirically you may be correct Brandon, but I thin...

2008-05-18T18:56:00.000-04:00

Empirically you may be correct Brandon, but I think the mathematics may give Obama the election without Ohio.

If he holds all the Kerry States (which includes PA - which Kerry won while losing OH) that is 252 EV. If Obama added Iowa (7 EV) CO (9 EV) and either NV or NM (5 EV each), Obama totals 273. If Obama won both NV & NM, he would have 278, a large enough margin to win even if NH (4 EV) goes to McCain.

As of today, I personally think that winning Iowa plus the three mountain states is Obama's most direct route to the Presidency. The odds are excellent that Governor Rendell will bring in PA for Obama. The polls in PA analyzed by pollster.com put Obama up 1.9% (within percentage error, of course) while RCP's average of last three major polls has Obama up 5.0% over McCain.

McCain seems determined to help Obama in PA and elsewhere. As to Obama's relative lack of appeal to white Catholics in Pennsylvania, it doesn't hurt one bit that McCain has been playing footsie with Paster Hagee, who called the Catholic Church the Great Whore!