Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Now It Matters

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2009-10-09T04:08:42.656-04:00

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2009-09-09T23:30:46.842-04:00

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2009-02-12T00:22:00.000-05:00

I feel that most people, you are making a serious ...

2008-07-27T12:02:00.000-04:00

I feel that most people, you are making a serious mistake in treating Nebraska model of electoral college reform which it is.

-----------------------------------------------

animesh

Wide Circles

Like most people, you are making a serious mistake...

2008-06-02T00:59:00.000-04:00

Like most people, you are making a serious mistake in treating Nebraska as 19th-20th century monolith, and not the 21rst century model of electoral college reform which it is.

Nebraska is not “winner take all”. It is 2 “winner take all” + 3 separate electoral votes for each congressional District:

Survey USA currently has CD 1 and CD very purple:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ce13d065-9b3a-44bc-9576-24abb567a4f4

You have seen the future, and it is Nebraska!

Tom Fennell

Thank you. I have been on something of a campaign ...

2008-06-02T00:57:00.000-04:00

Thank you. I have been on something of a campaign about this since early March when it became clear to me just how insidious the myth of the popular vote is.

I completely agree with your analysis regarding Michigan, and offered my own version late on Saturday night when I started becoming frustrated, once again, about the "so-called" popular vote.

"Why is Clinton Really Objecting to the DNC's Decision?"
http://msa4.wordpress.com/

I also sent a rather impassioned comment to DCW, following on the heels of another comment, and Yousri responded,

"I agree with you.

Popular Vote is taken out for good!"

Happy days......

is there a way for Obama, at the convention, to gi...

2008-06-02T00:51:00.000-04:00

is there a way for Obama, at the convention, to give back Hillary's 4 delegates?
I think Hillary's people would make a play on Obama's dirty fingernails if that's all they had to go on, so if it's not this it's something else.

Tom Daschle didn't get the memo, because he allowe...

2008-06-02T00:49:00.000-04:00

Tom Daschle didn't get the memo, because he allowed Ickes' popular vote claim on MTP to go completely unchallenged. It's maddening

one of the reasons why i never dug TD. He's a pushover and has no passion.

How anonymous are the women supporting Clinton at ...

2008-06-01T22:54:00.000-04:00

How anonymous are the women supporting Clinton at the DNC rules meeting? About as representative as the so-called "massive crowds" of Obama supporters in liberal bastions like Portland, OR. Remember that 35k rally in Philly for Obama, and then he lost by nearly 10% across the whole state? If Obama gets the benefit of the doubt that his supporters aren't extreme left-wing nuts and his hard core supporters, unrepresentative of the public at large--than I would hope the media would assume Clinton is similar.

The 4 delegates doesn't matter numerically. It is...

2008-06-01T22:52:00.000-04:00

The 4 delegates doesn't matter numerically. It is the perception. While just anecdotal, I visited relatives in suburban Philadelphia this weekend, and they are adamant Hillary Clinton supporters. The women in the family in particular are extremely motivated by politics, and most of them were only occasional voters in previous elections, not engaged in politics. They are leaning towards writing in Hillary Clinton or voting for McCain. I think the 80% of Clinton supporters you speak of feel that Clinton does not need to do anything to unite the party, and they are waiting on Obama. What I heard from the loyal Clinton supporters today was that Obama and his staff have been dismissing her (by claiming she'd make a good Sec. of HHS, for instance--a Cabinet position--and not VP). They aren't happy with a lot of the coverage, and feel that Obama has not made the overtures he should be to Clinton supporters, while at the same time acting like there is a general and being dismissive of her. Finally, their perception of the FL and MI deal was that it was a backroom deal where states that Clinton won were given to Obama. And on the 69-59 Michigan split, their feelings were that those were #s pulled out of a hat, so why not just violated the Florida rules too and pull #s out of a hat there (why not 3/4 delegates, since all were on the ballot?). Why did Clinton lose delegates in Michigan, but gain nothing in Florida?

Obama was wise to adjust the 50/50 MI split he cou...

2008-06-01T20:06:00.000-04:00

Obama was wise to adjust the 50/50 MI split he could have gotten to the 69/59 split the MI Democratic Party wanted. Why go further than what the state party wants? What did he get out of it? An additional 4 votes on the committee, making it a 2/3 majority instead of a bare majority.

If Clinton wants to protest for 4 delegates, then she is risking her Senate future on a petty slight. Her real goal was ZERO delegates for Obama, so giving her 73 wouldn't satisfy her.

I've read Taylor Marsh, and she is mad that Obama dared to beat Clinton. If he baked Clinton a cake, she would call him sexist for mocking traditional women's roles and for implying that Hillary is fat.

Most of Clinton followers will back Obama in the fall, because once they get over their anger, they will realize that 8 years of McCain is a high price to pay for petty revenge on a fundamentally decent guy.

It makes sense Obama supported the 69-59 split to ...

2008-06-01T18:39:00.000-04:00

It makes sense Obama supported the 69-59 split to undermine Clinton's popular vote claims, but if so, Tom Daschle didn't get the memo, because he allowed Ickes' popular vote claim on MTP to go completely unchallenged. It's maddening. Obama and his surrogates need to start vigorously claiming the popular vote and stating the fact that Clinton claims it only by giving Obama no votes from Michigan. They should also point out that Clinton said it wouldn't count and that the ballot didn't "make any difference." I haven't heard an Obama surrogate say this even once.

The need to be gracious and magnamimous to the Clintons does not extend to allowing them free reign to delegitimize Obama's victory and help McCain. It baffles me that many Obama supporters are still refusing to acknowledge what the Clintons are doing. It's obvious they want McCain to win.

Agreed with anonymous at 3:08 - Clinton just doesn...

2008-06-01T17:52:00.000-04:00

Agreed with anonymous at 3:08 - Clinton just doesn't have that many hardcore supporters (the type who will follow through on their threats against Obama)

I'd bet that in the end over 90% of Clinton supporters back Obama in the general election.

McCain is just an unthinkable choice. I can't even imagine the mind state of someone who thinks it's reasonable to vote for another 4 years of George W. Bush's failed policies.

20-80 percent is clearly pessimistic in that the h...

2008-06-01T16:08:00.000-04:00

20-80 percent is clearly pessimistic in that the hard-core element is certainly much less than 20 percent of Clinton's supporters.

An excellent indicator is the number of small donations to Clinton, which is at the range of a few 100K persons, about 0.2% of November's voters. Anyone who is so deeply obsessed with Clinton would have donated, at least a 5$. So this is an upper bound on the extreme Clinton fringe.

I think there might be three circles:

The inner core of supporters, deep Democrats who have become much more involved with Clinton than with the party. They may well vote McCain but that's no big deal.

The wider circle of partisan Democrats, who became very attached to Clinton and may now deeply dislike Obama, but will mostly vote for him.

The fuzzy border is of Independents or only vaguely attached Democrats, who have been attracted by Clinton's campaign. Those are mostly low-income, low-education middle aged women, a group with very low political attachment in general. In such a year, this group ought to go to the Democrats by a large margin, but the Clinton-Obama feelings may now put this in jeopardy. (I don't pull this out of the air: this is my reading of the recent Pew Survey).

The inner core is the one we hear from all the time, but they are trivial Trotskyites, no more. The danger is in the fuzzy border.

I am not sure I buy the starkness of your dichotom...

2008-06-01T16:01:00.000-04:00

I am not sure I buy the starkness of your dichotomy between people that would not vote Democrat anyway and people who will end up rallying to Obama.

The most important group (and probably the largest) are swing voters that COULD go for Obama, but who would be entirely comfortable with McCain.

On the issues Clinton was increasingly perceived as the cetrist candidate as the race continued (and did better among moderate and conservative voters*). These voters won't necessarily rally when you shout "George Bush, war in Iraq, etc." Imagine a voter that thinks that the Iraq war was a mistake, but that a rapid withdrawal is too. They could probably go either way.

Secondly, there are "experience" voters - a minority of the electorate, but about 35% in most states. Insofar as John McCain's personal qualities are closer to Clinton's these voters could go for the more experienced McCain.

Obama can still win back those people, however. If the election is about the economy, it is not clear to me that McCain's experience will get him very much leverage. Centrist voters are, as well, folks that are hardly lost forever to Obama.

These folks are heavily represented in swing states that went for Clinton - as opposed to unwinnable red states or hardcore blue states that went for Obama. I think this is the reason Obama-Clinton '08 is a good idea.

*"But Obama does well among independents"
-A: independents could be too left wing to consider themselves democrats - and I suspect these independents are over-represented in Democratic primaries. Moreover, Obama's lead there shrunk in later contests.

I think one of the things that has been instructiv...

2008-06-01T15:26:00.000-04:00

I think one of the things that has been instructive for me on a purely sociological level is the way that the lunatic fringe is not defined by necessarily insane ideas but but a failure to adapt to shifting realities. Six months ago, Hillary Clinton's hard core of supporters were fairly mainstream in their belief that she was the best candidate for the job. Now that it's been clear for a while that she would not seek election, those who are left are those who have failed to understand that no amount of rabble-rousing and loophole-finding is going to change the outcome of the game. These people are not only completely committed to a cause that has died, they appear to have surrounded themselves with other people who agree, to the point that the echoes of their own voices have convinced them that there are more people like them than there really are.

These people are not insane, but their echo chamber -- the lack of reasonable checks on what has become increasingly, shall we say, creative logic -- has allowed them to convince themselves of fundamentally untrue things. For instance, that 35% of the Democratic party will never vote for Barack Obama; not even 35% of people who voted for Hillary Clinton have been reliably shown to hold this view. The frankly ludicrous equasion above of Hillary Clinton with God, John McCain with country, and Barack Obama with . . . partisan politics? Is that what's happening there? Anyway. It's a case study in how beliefs can be allowed to calcify. Made worse, doubtless, by antagonism, I'm sure. But what was the reasonable center has become the outlier.

It's like they said in Sunset Boulevard, it's the pictures that got small -- changes in the landscape dwarf the changes in the person standing on it.

Wow. That's sort of surprising.

2008-06-01T14:56:00.000-04:00

Wow. That's sort of surprising.

NO ONE ought to complain Obama supporters trashing...

2008-06-01T14:48:00.000-04:00

NO ONE ought to complain Obama supporters trashing Hillary as though she were the devil herself. By the same token, Clinton supporters can say whatever we want about Obama. Obama supporters are oblivious of their need to reconcile with Clinton diehards, who account for 30-45% of the likely Democratic voters in several key swing states and beyond. Instead they continue to spit venom at the very group Obama WILL need if he were nominated. The intersection of Clinton Democrats and Reagan Democrats is much larger than Nancy Pelosi and Howard Dean would admit. Do not complain that you have not be forewarned when the Savior loses in the GE.

God > Country >>>>>>>> ANY Party
therefore,
Clinton > McCain >>>>>>>> Obama
simple as that.

el cid is correct. If just one state, Minnesota, h...

2008-06-01T14:38:00.000-04:00

el cid is correct. If just one state, Minnesota, had had a primary instead, based upon the fact that up here in the upper midwest, we are notorious for high voter turnout, even among young people, Minnesota's padding of Obama's popular vote margin, would nullify all of Hillary's claims.

I don;t worry about it for a second though, because superdelegates aren't having any of the popular vote argument (especially in Puerto Rico)...it's just one of many attempts at changing the rules in the middle (or end) of the game.

mikeel is right. The 69-59 split gives Ickes the t...

2008-06-01T14:34:00.000-04:00

mikeel is right. The 69-59 split gives Ickes the talking (read: rallying) point that Hillary actually had delegates "hijacked" from her.

Now, of course it isn't true, and since it was actually the Clinton campaign opened the door long ago to pledged delegates not really being so pledged after all, Ickes' assertion is laughable on its face.

Still, though, it allows him to carp on the hijacked delegates to the already devout Clintonians.

...in John McCain who had an extremely abbreviated...

2008-06-01T14:33:00.000-04:00

...in John McCain who had an extremely abbreviated primary season,
Are any campaigns that don't go into September now considered "extremely abbreviated"? My how things have changed in the past 6 months!

It's not like citizens who live in caucus states g...

2008-06-01T14:28:00.000-04:00

It's not like citizens who live in caucus states got to choose whether or not to have a primary or caucus.

And it's not like the Democratic Party rules told caucus states that (1) yes, caucuses are perfectly valid ways to select candidates & delegates, but (2) someday the 'popular vote count' will matter in indirectly influencing which candidate is chosen by the 'superdelegates'...

...so since your party bureaucracy or state government chose to give you a caucus over a primary, NOW your individual vote doesn't count because it doesn't help us determine a popular vote total.

So by this logic it's perfectly okay to undercut citizens living in caucus-holding states, as though they did something wrong, while arguing that states whose parties & governments broke national party rules MUST have their 'popular votes' counted.

If all this voo-doo mattered and states got no punishment for breaking the rules, I see no reason for my state of Georgia not to hold the primaries for 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2018 next Thursday and thus declare the next decade of nominations as locked up.

While the popular vote argument would have been le...

2008-06-01T14:19:00.000-04:00

While the popular vote argument would have been legitimized by a 73-55 split in Michigan, it would have gone a long way over to a smoother path to unity. A wise investment of four delegates.

Agreed that the Obama haters (esp. those who comment on Taylor Marsh are a lost cause). Obama needs to focus on those women who don't post
comments on blogs (lower info voters).