Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: A Short List of Short Lists [UPDATED]

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2009-09-11T07:08:48.331-04:00

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^^ nice blog!! thanks a lot! ^^徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社, 徵信...

2009-03-11T22:19:00.000-04:00

^^ nice blog!! ^@^徵信, 徵信, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社...

2009-03-11T22:18:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-15T02:57:00.000-05:00

They're all snores except Schweitzer. I've heard h...

2008-07-30T17:33:00.000-04:00

They're all snores except Schweitzer. I've heard him twice on The Ed Schultz Show and he is terrific, would get the attention of a lot of moderate conservatives. Richardson was my first choice but the lack of recent buzz suggests he ain't in the runnin.'

Ok, does anyone know where we could look at commen...

2008-07-29T14:44:00.000-04:00

Ok, does anyone know where we could look at commentary just prior to previous races to see how accurate anybody was in reading them tea leaves? Was anyone regularly calling Edwards in 04, Liberman or Cheney in 00? Data people data!

If we ask the questions "Who is best prepared to t...

2008-07-29T13:49:00.000-04:00

If we ask the questions "Who is best prepared to take over the Presidency?" and "Who is most capable of helping Obama govern?", then there is only one answer -- Al Gore.

I hope Obama has the wisdom and courage to TELL Gore that it is Gore's OBLIGATION and DUTY to serve.

Obama wants and tries to maintain a drama free cam...

2008-07-29T12:54:00.000-04:00

Obama wants and tries to maintain a drama free campaign. The likely running mate has to be drama and gaffe free, isn't a show boater, or raises the hackles of the Repubs.

I expect a white male who's competent, well liked, slightly attractive (youngish) and a gov./ex-gov.

Wish it were Richardson, if he clears vetting. He's the only one who had Obama's back during a rough patch during the primaries.

Plus Obama and Richardson genuinely like each other.

I don't see any mention here of Jim Webb as a seri...

2008-07-29T11:59:00.000-04:00

I don't see any mention here of Jim Webb as a serious VP contender. Have I missed something?

Should we really bother with the conventional wisd...

2008-07-29T10:27:00.000-04:00

Should we really bother with the conventional wisdom about the VP race? I seem to remember everyone being pretty surprised about the choice of Dick Cheney in 2000 (since he was leading the search himself). And the choice of Gore violated just about every preconception about what Bill Clinton needed in a running mate.

I say this in every VP discussion, but I would lov...

2008-07-29T01:39:00.000-04:00

I say this in every VP discussion, but I would love to see Lincoln Chafee selected. A moderate Republican who left his party and became an Independent. He was the only Republican Senator to vote against the Iraq war. I think he would be a great pick that would reach out to indenpendents while reinforcing Obama's core message.

@Michael,Exactly!You're damn right it would aliena...

2008-07-29T00:58:00.000-04:00

@Michael,

Exactly!

You're damn right it would alienate Democrats in Virginia. A selection of Kaine would be a slap in the fact to many Virginia Democrats. We didn't work to elect Kaine just to have half his term gifted to the Republicans.

There are a tremendous number very able Democrats in our nation. Why choose the ONLY one that results in gifting a governor's mansion to the Republicans? ? ?

It just doesn't make sense.

Were this about New York or California, I don't think Obama consider such a plan for an instant. Why he thinks it's OK to destroy Virginia's Democratic leadership is a complete mystery to me.

Giving our Governor to the Republicans is too high a price to pay. I hope Obama comes to realize this. Many of my fellow VA Dems will be mighty peeved with Obama if he selects Kaine.

In any case, I think Obama should look to either a national security expert or an economic expert. I like Kaine a lot, but he fulfills neither of those qualifications.

heard from a source tonight that Kaine, while well...

2008-07-29T00:16:00.000-04:00

heard from a source tonight that Kaine, while well liked, may be a no-go due to the fact that the Governorship would change party control. Some fear this might alienate voters in VA, especially Dem's who do not want to lose control of state politics.

Also, hearing a bit of chatter about Joe Biden, more so than Bayh, Dodd, Nunn, or others. I would bet right now, 50-50 that Biden is the pick, announced sometime around August 18

MS...Good to hear from a sane Virginian on here. I...

2008-07-29T00:11:00.000-04:00

MS...Good to hear from a sane Virginian on here. It seems like this board has been taken over by talking point trolls...ugh.

I'm from Richmond and lived blocks away from Tim Kaine when he was a city councilman representing my district, and while he was Mayor of Richmond and Lieutenant Governor. He is a great guy, but I will add to some of the points you made.

I know he has had some issues with governing, but the problem lies mostly with House Speaker Bill Howell and the anti-tax, anti-transportation Republicans in the House of Delegates. They have blocked everything that Kaine has tried to do in order to improve Virginia's dilapadated road system. You know how badly roads in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads are, while projects go unfunded and developers continue to build with regard to land usage.

Kaine pushed so much for the gas tax because it is clearly the most equitable way to fund road projects and establish a consistent stream of revenue for large-scale projects and services (i.e. Metro). The Republicans endorsed the failed abuser fees and regional authorities, and they suffered a lot at the ballot box last fall, but it wasn't enough to take away the GOP House majority. However, Kaine deserves SO much credit for restoring Democratic control to the Senate. They knew any tax bill would get rejected in the House, so that is why the bill didn't go anywhere. Kaine has led on this issue, as well as Pre-K education and refining government transparency. The Republicans, who are still smarting after they felt Mark Warner got too much shine thanks to moderate Republicans, are trying to blunt any advantage Kaine can have. I don't think Kaine is ineffective, but he has been limited by anti-progress Republicans who have no solutions and sign anti-tax pledges just to make themselves look good. That isn't governing, and that's why Northern Virginia voters have embraced Democrats--and even the business organizations which leaned Republicans abhor the statewide GOP candidates. Don't even get me started on people like Ken Cuccinelli, Morgan Griffith, and Howell...they are the worst.

I am also horrified about the prospect of Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling becoming governor. First, we would have no transportation plan for the forseeable future. Higher education funding would be gutted. Grover Norquist would probably have a guest bedroom in the Governor's Mansion as long as Bolling is there (shudder). However, this might be a good thing if Creigh Deeds is the Democratic gubernatorial nominee next year. Deeds runs well in rural areas and the Shenandoah Valley, and if there is a backlash in Northern Virginia and Deeds swamps Bolling there, Bolling would have no chance. If Attorney General Bob Attorney, whom I find even more frightening, decides to run for re-election as Attorney General--the Democratic nominee would have a good chance of knocking him off. We could get rid of both Bolling and McDonnell in one election cycle, but I still would like Kaine to be there so Democrats can craft a cohesive agenda that warrants a Deeds victory.

Democrats HAVE to take back control of the House of Delegates in either 2009 or 2011, and they must have a Democratic governor to modify the Congressional district boundaries and get rid of that artificially high 8-3 Republican edge in the U.S. House delegation.

However, I have to disagree with you about Kaine's speaking abilities. I think he is amazing, and when the tragedy at Virginia Tech occured last year, he gave such an inspiring and gracious speech.

Tim Kaine is extremely popular in the African-American community, especially in the City of Richmond and the surrounding counties. I think he could make a big difference in Henrico County, a traditionally Republican county which has become way more moderate in the past decade. It is also nearly 30 percent African-American, and voter turnout here would grow exponentially with a popular Democrat like Kaine on the ticket. Chesterfield will be a stretch, but if Obama could get above 40-41 percent there, it would be great. To non-Virginians, that may seem like a low mark, but Chesterfield is a strongly Republican county with a history of tense race relations. However, Obama won with 71 percent in the Democratic Primary, and the county is only 19 percent African-American. This is a mixed white-collar and blue-collar county, and if Obama can make inroads here, it will make a BIG difference statewide.

Lastly, picking Kaine would almost ensure that Virginia would go for Obama. I think a lot of on-the-fence moderates in the state, especially in the Northern Virignia exurbs, would instantly gravitate to the ticket. Traditional GOP voters in suburban Richmond might take an extra look at the ticket, and Kaine would help in military-rich Hampton Roads. Kaine sweeped the area handily in 2005 during his gubernatorial run, and is his strongest area of the state (polling-wise).

Right now, I'm conflicted about Kaine. He's a GREAT guy, intelligent, and a has a wealth of experience. He has been moderately successful, but doesn't really have a defining issue as governor and lacks foreign policy credentials (however, Mark Warner lacked this trait as well--even though a lot of people thought he was a better pick). Also, like I said before, I don't want a Governor Bill Bolling either.

Virginia has shaped to be THE state to watch this election, and I'm so glad it is finally a swing-state on the presidential level.

For Wes Clark to be VP, for me, you need to be wil...

2008-07-28T23:33:00.000-04:00

For Wes Clark to be VP, for me, you need to be willing to use Rovian tactics, and be confident in so doing. If he's the choice, we'll hear about McCain's service non-stop. So he'll almost have to kneecap McCain on the issue to keep from being a drag on the ticket.

Of course, if he succeeds in a "getting shot down doesn't qualify you to lead a country" line of attack, McCain could lose big.

But there's no electoral advantage to winning big versus winning small - Obama's just as much President in either case. If it reduces his chance of winning and increases his chance of winning big - its dumb. With the exception a total landslide might bring him the majority he'd need to minimize Republican interference.

On the plus side - he's an outsider, a Clintonite, led a campaign with approximately 0% of the deaths in Iraq. If we ever get to going on about his strengths, it'll be good.

I like the thought of Colin Powell, but I think that also depends on how comfortable with spin are you. Can you play his trip to the UN before Iraq as a loyal soldier doing what his President ordered him to do based on faulty info, or is that a huge wedge to give the loony left and McCain?

Klaus: You say he shouldn't pick Kaine is because ...

2008-07-28T23:29:00.000-04:00

Klaus: You say he shouldn't pick Kaine is because he's a snoozer... then you say he should pick Sam Nunn? Huh???? How about he shouldn't pick Hillary Clinton because she's too dirty, so he should just go ahead and pick Hoffa instead?

Anonymous @6:54p (and I will not miss starting a c...

2008-07-28T22:56:00.000-04:00

Anonymous @6:54p (and I will not miss starting a comment this way),

Thanks for the link to the NY Times Magazine article on Brian Schweitzer.

However, after reading it, I see an even more compelling reason to pick Schweitzer as Obama's VP candidate ... energy policy!

The Republicans have selected energy policy as their wedge issue for 2008, and already have trotted out what I would assume is Frank Luntz's focus group tested slogan, "Find more, use less." Aside: I went to Penn at the same time as Frank, and I still remember his columns in the Daily Pennsylvanian (shudder!).

Schweitzer can fight back hard, with his sensible proposals for alternatives to petroleum, and he has the ability to explain his concepts in a simple, direct manner.

I'm definitely a "nutball," and I share the 538 crush on Brian Schweitzer, but I think he can single-handedly neutralize the "drill more" wedge issue with his forthright approach to solving the critical issue of US energy independence.

Kaine is a Terrible choice. I and Most of the Vir...

2008-07-28T21:33:00.000-04:00

Kaine is a Terrible choice. I and Most of the Virginia Democrats I know are hoping and praying that Kaine isn't the pick.

Firstly because Virginia Democrats are HORRIFIED at the prospect of Tim Kaine abandoning his post. If he becomes the Vice President, an extremely conservative Lieutenant Governor will inherit the Virginia Governor's mansion. Virginia will be saddled with the terrible, terrible Bill Bolling for a full Two Years! As much as VA Democrats want Obama to win, they don't want Bolling to inherit the Governor's mansion. Some independents may even use this as rationale to vote against an Obama Kaine ticket.

As for Kaine's political ability, he truly has a tin ear to populist politics. Kaine was largely blamed for a horribly designed (and horribly regressive) speeding fine system put in place two years ago. It was so poorly thought out that first offenders found going as little as 10 miles over the speed limit could face a massive $1000 fine. The system became so unpopular that barely a month after its passage many state legislators started plans to repeal the bill. Kaine didn't get on board with the repeal. He completely ignored the issue. He signed the repeal, but never got credit for it. Yes, in the big picture it was an inconsequential issue. That doesn't change the fact that it was probably the single most covered state political issue last year.

How bad is Kaine's tin ear? The new highway bill he endorsed this month included an INCREASE in Virginia's Gasoline Tax! Yes, he endorsed an increase in the gas tax just as gas surged above $4 per gallon... A small increase, but an increase none the less. Personally, I think he was set up by Republican state legislators. Which is yet another reason not to go with Kaine. He has continually been played by Republican legislators. He's also terrible at getting his own legislation enacted. He's championed a ban on smoking in restaurants for the past two years, on each occasion he was shot down.

Thirdly, Kaine just isn't a very good speaker. I suppose he's better than McCain, but that isn't saying much. Compared to Obama's speaking skills, Kaine is a rank amateur. Most of the '08 Democratic presidential hopefuls are better speakers than Kaine. I've seen Kaine speak in person, for that reason alone I wouldn't pick him for VP.

Worst of all, I don't think Kaine will have any meaningful influence on Virginia's presidential vote. The major factor for Obama in Virginia is getting out the black vote. Virginia is 20% black. Tim Kaine is unlikely to influence that metric in any meaningful way. Obama should focus a huge Get Out The Vote effort in Virginia, he doesn't need a Virginian as VP.

I think Obama is tempted to pick Kaine for a number of bad reasons. Obama and Kaine seem to truly get along. Both their families are from the same small town in Kansas. Kaine was (I think) the first Governor to endorse Obama. Kaine REALLY wants the job because if Kaine isn't chosen as VP, his political career will likely end in two years time. VA Governors are term limited and each of our Senators are likely to be Democrats in 2010. Kaine will have no where to go.

None of those are good reasons to pick Kaine as VP. Obama should promise Kaine a cabinet position when his gubernatorial term expires in 2010. He doesn't need Kaine as VP.

If Obama throws a curveball for VP, who could he c...

2008-07-28T21:20:00.000-04:00

If Obama throws a curveball for VP, who could he choose that would actually surprise us?

Ann Veneman's been touted, so no one would be surprised by a moderate Republican choice, even a former Bush cabinet secretary or governor.

Colin Powell's been speculated on, as has Mike Bloomberg.

Every Democratic Senator and Governor under 70 has been on someone's short list.

So who could surprise us at this point?

Well, here's some picks no one's talking about:

1) Joe Lieberman
2) Jesse Jackson
3) Ross Perot
4) Dick Cheney

Maybe we don't want a curveball after all...

Nemesis: Cugel is Nate's 'attack dog' running mate...

2008-07-28T21:16:00.000-04:00

Nemesis: Cugel is Nate's 'attack dog' running mate in this election. He brings the state of coma-boredom to the ticket, too. Give him some respect!

p.s. define 'good piss'.

Off-topic alert: where has Senor Nines gotten to? and that cool Poblano guy? (I miss him)

this site is infested with left wing & right wing ...

2008-07-28T21:13:00.000-04:00

this site is infested with left wing & right wing nuts

Obama is a going to win it like it or not

Fu** off trolls

The person attacking Cugel may have missed the per...

2008-07-28T21:09:00.001-04:00

The person attacking Cugel may have missed the person anointing him the best poster at the beginning of the post...
Anonymous said...
thanks for that Cugel
I'd have to say you are the number one poster on this site. Your posts are almost always about the original post by Nate or Sean, and they are not just opinion. You routinely answer questions by other posters with insight and other sources (like the pollster.com article on this last post), and you articulate your thoughts very well.

I'd agree-Cugel is a great poster. If you don't want to read a long post- DONT. Let him post what he wants- he isn't rude- disparaging to others- nor does he stoop to racist or insincere levels.
He is a good poster

The person attacking Cugel may have missed the per...

2008-07-28T21:09:00.000-04:00

OBAMA-BLOOMBERG '08 IS THE MAGIC TICKET! I bet on ...

2008-07-28T21:06:00.000-04:00

OBAMA-BLOOMBERG '08 IS THE MAGIC TICKET! I bet on that one...

What about Wes Clark?

2008-07-28T20:57:00.000-04:00

What about Wes Clark?