Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Do Voters Like Joe Biden?

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2009-10-08T05:32:12.533-04:00

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2009-02-16T23:05:00.000-05:00

How can Barack "change the way Washington works" w...

2008-08-20T17:04:00.000-04:00

How can Barack "change the way Washington works" without havign someone who has been around D.C. a long time? He needs someone like Biden who knows where the bodies are buried! Plus, Biden has NEVER lived in DC. He has always taken the train home every night to Delaware to be with his family. He is the poorest Senator in Congress or so I hear. He is a solid blue-collar guy- a straight-talker who is NOT a sell out.

cowbat friend: Lieberman is and has been for some ...

2008-08-20T15:40:00.000-04:00

cowbat friend: Lieberman is and has been for some time, for all relevant intents and purposes, a Republican. So Harold answered your question before you asked it: won’t happen.

Ben, and also pluckon: Lemme get this straight. Obama’s success or failure hinges on the decisive effect his VP choice is certain to have upon his brand as a “change” candidate, vis-à-vis McCain’s “experience” brand? And if he undercuts the “change meme” by dint of choosing an “experienced” partner then he weakens his sauce and therefore loses? Yet if he reinforces his “change meme” with an “exciting” partner then he also reinforces the “naïve meme” and therefore loses? Huh. What’s that you were saying about Beltway insider-think?

Jackson: Did it occur to you that a Freudian lapse into usage of the feminine pronoun while describing Senator Obama, followed by a doth-protest-too-much assertion that you would never support Hillary “in a million years”, might identify you as someone who came here to state things you do not believe to be true? Did you pause to consider that a comment expressing concern about the overstated reality of “concern trolls” might be received with a certain skepticism? Just asking.

Bill: Clearly you’re unfamiliar with the role Biden plays in the Senate. Please note: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1op8vwF5UA

Alex S.: Sebelius is from Kansas, not Missouri.

Dash Riprock: Why do you state that Biden “doesn’t help” in Ohio? Do Ohioans have something against him I don’t know about? Don’t Ohio’s demographics largely map onto those of Pennsylvania, where Biden— with his Catholic, blue-collar heritage in addition to his roots in the region— is said to be a ringer?

stop_the_stutter: Warren who?

Well, John, in the space of one month I've seen Ob...

2008-08-20T05:40:00.000-04:00

Well, John, in the space of one month I've seen Obama's campaign fall apart, so I'm not as ready as you are to proclaim him infallible. Let's hope his people can turn it around. One thing they might consider is running him as a Democrat who wants to change the country's direction. Pass it on.

I want everybody to listen and listen clear. If yo...

2008-08-20T05:01:00.000-04:00

I want everybody to listen and listen clear.

If you vote for Obama, you are voting for his judgment. Plain and simple. You arent voting for his VP as your number one priority. If you do its just plain stupid. Your only alternative is John Mccain and if Obamas VP choice steers you to Mccain, then you need to ask yourself if you are engaging in a popularity contest and making smart decisions since the two couldnt be any more different. CONCLUSION: Its Baracks judgement here, if you are voting for him, trust it! If you dont trust his VP choice then, you as a voter need to ask yourself more important questions. Pass this comment along! Please! Thanks all.

I'm always amused when people comment on how Obama...

2008-08-20T02:41:00.000-04:00

I'm always amused when people comment on how Obama must choose a VP with a "wow factor", and then immediately list a bunch of candidates that "satisfies the wow factor".

If he picks Biden he can kiss Colorado goodbye, an...

2008-08-20T02:07:00.000-04:00

If he picks Biden he can kiss Colorado goodbye, and probably Nevada too, and possibly New Mexico. It's not that people there dislike Biden, but to anyone west of the Mississippi that choice is going to come across as a timid, Eastern establishment pick that was dictated by a combination of fear and the "in-crowd."

It will say to voters: "You know all that 'Change' I was talking about? It was nothing but a spring slogan."

I'll be surprised if Obama's VP choice is any of t...

2008-08-19T19:39:00.000-04:00

I'll be surprised if Obama's VP choice is any of the 5 big names. I think Obama needs someone who can add gravitas in foreign policy without being a beltway insider. Someone with hands on experience of running something big. At the moment I'm thinking Wes Clarke for the following reasons:
1) He's from outside the beltway so he can talk about change with some believability.
2) He uniquely can counter-attack McCain's military hardtalk and make McCain seem overly hawkish supporting Obama's quieter diplomacy approach
3) He's actually run something of size and complexity.
4) He has reasonable foreign policy gravitas.
5) He seems quite happy to be an attacker.
We'll know sooon enough. Love the blog!

Do not underestimate Biden's appeal to older women...

2008-08-19T18:28:00.001-04:00

Do not underestimate Biden's appeal to older women people. I've got five (5) data points (mother, grandmother, mother in-law, and two aunts) that with no encouragement say Biden is the way to go.

Do not underestimate Biden's appeal to older women...

2008-08-19T18:28:00.000-04:00

Do not underestimate Biden's appeal to older women people. I've got five (5) data points (mother, grandmother, mother in-law, and two aunts) that with no encouragement say Biden is the way to go.

I hope I can coax Nate into running some sims on h...

2008-08-19T18:16:00.000-04:00

I hope I can coax Nate into running some sims on his vastly superior model toying with a pro-life women (snowe) and trying to see how it plays.

Mine is a reverse engineered EXCEL knockoff, which I run 500x sim cycles on and tweek the best I can to match Nate's posted cross probabilities. Its not bad, but I don't pretend to assert that its results are anything other than interesting and something for Nate to explore if he agrees.

Glenn-in-ColoradoI sure as heck hope your model is...

2008-08-19T17:59:00.000-04:00

Glenn-in-Colorado

I sure as heck hope your model is gronked.

(Curious: Do you run it on excel with an add in or did you build a program?)

Jackson - You should usually vote for policies."No...

2008-08-19T17:56:00.000-04:00

Jackson -

You should usually vote for policies.

"Not really. Campaign policies are at best a rough draft, not the least reason being that they can't enact them by themselves. It takes character and, frankly, charm to get other politicians on board to actually implement it."

Does not compute. I'd much rather have policies I agree with pursued, even clumsily, than have policies I don't agree with pursued, either effectively or ineffectively.

I believe that almost everyone who can find their way to a site like this can follow straightforward logic, so when it's denied, I assume that some sort of emotional bias is driving the denial.

This is a democracy, for the time being, and you have the right to vote as you see fit. If large numbers of voters continue to vote against their own self interests on the basis of their superficial opinion of the candidates' personalities, if, in short, majorities or pluralities continue to treat real elections like junior high class president elections, then this nation will continue to spiral downward.

I kinda had to stop reading all the comments, but ...

2008-08-19T17:32:00.000-04:00

I kinda had to stop reading all the comments, but I think you guys are wrong in one aspect. I'm a female in the 18-25 age window, and I love Biden. It won't be hard for other women to like Biden if they were obssessed with Hillary in the primaries either.

McCain + Snowe EV SimsWhen I run my clone of Nate'...

2008-08-19T17:24:00.000-04:00

McCain + Snowe EV Sims

When I run my clone of Nate's model in simulations where I have McCain moving center with a pro-choice women in Snowe and running the basic model with 2:1 trades of Evenagelical voters for indies up to 4% for 8% I get really interesting simulations. Maybe Nate could do this on his (better) version and see if he gets the similar results ...

Bottomline:

McCain still carries the hard red states, mostly, with Georgia, Texas, West Virgina, South Carolina dropping to single digit wins, but generally they still hold. Virginia tends to go Obama more than the unmodded version. But New Hampshire (4), Colorado (9), Nevada (5), Michigan (17) and even Wisconsin (10), Minnesota (10)Oregon (7), Iowa (7) and the big Kahuna PA (21) start popping McCain with frequency. Florida's 4.3% (Nate's projection) holds up pretty well, but it doesn't play as the tipper.

The frequency of PV losses with EV wins goes up through the roof for McCain.

NOT TRUE, VA Conservative!!McCain was never fully ...

2008-08-19T17:19:00.000-04:00

NOT TRUE, VA Conservative!!

McCain was never fully cleared of his implication in the Keating 5. That skeez Charles Keating stepped up and took the brunt of responsibility, this alleviating the suspicions cast on the other principals involved.

That has been a black cloud off in the distance for McCain for years and I'm sure he'd rather there be little to no mention of it now.

As to Biden: get all the facts before you spout your vision. Back in the late 1980s, Biden made a regular speech which included an anecdote (you're a McCain guy, you know ALL about anecdotes!). Biden gave full citation and credit for that story every time BUT ONCE.

Your man, on the other hand, has been lifting other people's words and claiming them as his own as recently as last Saturday. The "Cross in the Sand" story he almost tearfully shared--and which he has told in changing versions over the years--was straight out of Solzhenitsyn (one of McCain's self-professed "favorites!").

I wouldn't normally bring up the Wikipedia/Georgia question, since there is no real proof that it happened, but when you start adding together ALL THE LIES AND GAFFES AND DECEIT--was he in a cone of silence or wasn't he?? First he denies the stories that he wasn't, then when none other than Rick Warren confirms it, he does some serious back-peddling and table-turning--you can't help but realize what a sham of a man McCain is. Period.

Go ahead and bring up Biden's mistake from 20 years ago. Our ammo is much more recent, much more effective!!

"LLCoolBi" is hilarious! I'm a lady and I can atte...

2008-08-19T17:04:00.000-04:00

"LLCoolBi" is hilarious! I'm a lady and I can attest to his appeal :)

Barack is essentially tied,That doesn’t bode well ...

2008-08-19T16:53:00.001-04:00

Barack is essentially tied,

That doesn’t bode well for him. I’m the biggest fan, but must people aren’t seeing him as tough enough now. I’m look at most of the blue collar states, Ohio, Ind, southern VA, he’s losing the vote. The only place he’s really winning is MI, and PA. He’s wasting his time in FL, they will never vote democratic. When Republicans and John McCain attack him he shrugs it off as being cynical or politics. He’s missing the point. This is a test of his toughness. What happens when the Russians say he’s a wimp or not tough enough? Man this election is too close and has gotten closer as the summer has come to an end. One of two things has to happen in order for him to get a bounce:

He has to select Hillary Clinton as his VP, and then he will pull Ohio, perhaps, WVA and Ind back into the fold.
Or
He has to get tougher. He seems to confuse being tough with negative politics. He can’t run this in a National Campaign. He will lose if he does.

Barack is essentially tied,That doesn’t bode well ...

2008-08-19T16:53:00.000-04:00

OFF TOPIC - RE DENVER CONVENTIONDid anyone catch t...

2008-08-19T16:42:00.000-04:00

OFF TOPIC - RE DENVER CONVENTION

Did anyone catch the story last week of the Canadian Somali Muslim found dead in a Denver hotel with a pound of Sodium Cyanide and a suitcase full of money? Death was from what appeared to be inadvertent cyanide ingestion.

The secrurity here in downtown Denver is Red Level. The building next to us required employees to sign liability waivers in order to report to their jobs next week - mentioned in the waiver were tear gasing and restraint of free movement due to lock downs. All the mailboxes/FedEx drop boxes are gone off the streets. British style CCTV cameras are up all over the place. Even the tables and chairs sitting in the sun along the streets are gone.

Rage Against the Macine and Public Enemy will be performing concerts. Now if I can just round up some Obama T-Shirts and 1/5ths of whiskey to hand out to the bums downtown - 1972 style ... oh never mind, they're being rounded up and shipped off to the zoo.

I'm trying to look at this as if I were a McCain s...

2008-08-19T16:35:00.000-04:00

I'm trying to look at this as if I were a McCain supporter. Who would I want Obama to pick? Who would I not want Obama to pick?

Looking at the (admittedly unreliable at this stage) state level polling this morning, as well as at the national polls, if I were backing McCain, I have to think I'd be OK with how things are shaping up for McCain. Not confident by any means, but not in a panic.

I'd have thought my guy would be behind by a dozen points at this stage, given the economy, the war and McCain's association with the idiot who got us into the war and who is getting blamed for the economy, but he's only behind by less than a handful of points and he's within the margin of error nationally and just about everywhere that counts. Even that Obama homer, Nate, only has his guy winning by less than a point and an easily eraseable 14 EV's today.

I'd be thinking that the key states and the electorate in general have broken Republican in the last month or so in the last two elections, despite a total doofus at the top of the ticket.

So, what could Obama do with his VP pick that would muck things up for my otherwise good mood?

Biden? Puhleez. He's got gray hair and he knows what he's doing on Foreign Policy, but he's not going to bring a state, he's prone to "misspoking" and he's so liberal that we can paint the ticket as liberal and liberaler. Fun.

Bayh? Another youngish guy. He's got DLC tatooed on his whatever so he'll tick off Obama's zaniest supports and there's no way he's bringing Indiana, that's gone Republican since forever I can remember. Great.

Hillary. Sure, the dems say this is the "dream ticket," but my one worry is that my conservative and evangelical base isn't energized enough behind Johnny Mac, so maybe they'll stay home if it rains or if they have to wash their hair. One thing to wake em up and bring em out? Put Bill's wife on the ticket. Good news.

Kaine. Ah, he'll annoy some of Obama's base for sure. Pro Life. A little too "Catholic." A little DLC'ish. Might not work for Barry's base. But, I just checked the polls and Obama's actually ahead by a smidge in Virginia. Now, under normal circumstances, I'm almost certain that the state will break our way by the end of October and we'll win it by four or five points, but this Kaine guy might just throw a big wrench into that plan for us. He doesn't know squat about foreign policy, but, darn if he didn't do some sort of overseas, missionary work with the Jesuits. By the time it's over, Barack's half a billion dollar ad budget will have that sounding like he's an old, overseas policy hand. And that Jesuit missionary stuff plays well with a lot of the voters we're kind of counting on, you know, the ones that Paris Hilton called "wrinkly" and "old." No, I don't think I want this guy. Pick someone else, Senator Obama. He could be a problem for us.