Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Obama Outperforming Kerry Among Nearly All Demogra...

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2009-05-18T11:18:00.000-04:00

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2009-03-11T22:12:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-11T22:12:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-15T02:28:00.000-05:00

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2009-02-08T20:39:00.000-05:00

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2009-01-07T02:11:00.000-05:00

There is no justification of comparing the surveys...

2008-08-04T10:48:00.000-04:00

There is no justification of comparing the surveys of pre-election popularity of Sen. Obama to national exit poll popularity John Kerry. If you compare the pre election surveys of the 2 senators,i bet Sen Kerry outperforms Sen Obama in almost all demographic because Sen Kerry was ahead almost 15% against Mr. Bush 3 months before the election

MR-You may be independent, but douchebaggery knows...

2008-08-02T12:00:00.000-04:00

MR-
You may be independent, but douchebaggery knows no partisan bounds.

What you have on this site is a guy with his own set of biases putting out a model that, thus far has been acting as a leading indicator. It could be right in Nov. and it could be wrong as well, but that's neither here nor there. Thus far, he's been right on. That you, and others of a conservative ilk want to point to Nate's well-documented biases as evidence of his model's failure while ignore the model's obvoious successes exposes you as a partisan hack and opens you up to ridicule, and yes, preaching.

Oh an MR? The model has Obama winning now. So if it "changes little" I'll be fine. To think... With that "Masters in Economics" you can't read a fucking pie chart. So sad.

Chad, please see my post above. You'll find broadl...

2008-08-01T19:19:00.000-04:00

Chad, please see my post above. You'll find broadly similar numbers there, in a comparison of June 2000, June 2004 and June 2008 polls.

"And Cugel: What do you know about independents? Y...

2008-08-01T19:13:00.000-04:00

"And Cugel: What do you know about independents? You are a Daily Kos wannabe from day one! Stop pretending you know about a group of people you have never been a part of."

Typical right-winger! Doesn't know any argument except ad hominem attacks and personal anecdotes!

I don't have to be an Independent fool! I can read the 2004 Election cross-tabs.

Bush won 93% of Republicans, Kerry won 89% of Democrats and Bush won Independents by 1%.

Think McCain is going to do a better job Swift-Boating Obama than Bush did Kerry?

Did Bush's tactic win large numbers of Independents? NO! If it didn't work for Bush it sure as hell isn't going to work for McCain!

Bush won by turning out 11 million more Republicans. Only this year there AREN'T more Republicans to turn out!

Know what happens if McCain wins 93% of Republicans, Obama wins 89% of Democrats and McCain wins Independents by 1%, all just like 2004? Obama wins by 5.6% that's what! All due to the Democratic party ID advantage measured by Rasmussen. (Plug the numbers into Nate's spreadsheet calculator yourself)!

I could just as easily accuse you of not knowing a thing about women voters because you aren't one, but that would be a really stupid arguement! Just like yours!

you americans are very lucky people because you ca...

2008-08-01T19:10:00.000-04:00

you americans are very lucky people because you can drill to solve the issue of high gas prices...here in Italy we cannot play this card...so i think you have to support this plan...

The one thing that Nate's model "lacks" is an anal...

2008-08-01T19:02:00.001-04:00

The one thing that Nate's model "lacks" is an analysis of the registered voters who either claim they will vote Other or refuse, even when pushed by Rasmussen or SUSA, to indicate a preference. By using Gallup's data, as he does here, he might be able to solve the final piece of the puzzle. After all, this group, most of whom are eventually going to vote for either McCain or Obama, can be allocated based on their education level, partisan ID, race/ethnicity, gender, ideology, and region of the country. Of course the question is, Is there some confounding factor that prevents an allocation based on past elections. The race of the Democratic nominee obviously might be such a factor. I seriously doubt that Obama will get 89% of Democratic votes. Gore got considerably less than that. Obama will outperform Gore by a bit among Dems, and might, with a smart and aggressive media campaign, blow out McCain among independents.

Off-topic, how is it that some states seem "easy to poll" insofar as the result are so consistent? Seems like everybody has North Carolina as about McCain +4. Meanwhile, OH, KY and MN have huge swings depending on the pollster and the date. One obvious possibility re: North Carolina is that minds are made up. If that's so, then it's all about the ground game in NC (and maybe VA too). Ground game is v. important everywhere, but TV and radio might be particularly important in a state like Ohio which is close, but yields polling that is all over the place.

In my opinion at the moment this race is a pure to...

2008-08-01T19:02:00.000-04:00

In my opinion at the moment this race is a pure tossup ( perhaps Obama has a very small lead )...i noted Obama BELIEVERS think McCain is doomed...of course you can say it...but no facts can support this vision...

"And Cugel: What do you know about independents? Y...

2008-08-01T18:59:00.000-04:00

"And Cugel: What do you know about independents? You are a Daily Kos wannabe from day one! Stop pretending you know about a group of people you have never been a part of."

Typical right-winger! Doesn't know any argument except ad hominem attacks and personal anecdotes!

I don't have to be an independent, fool! All I have to do is look at the cross-tabs for the 2004 election!

Bush won 93% of Republicans, Kerry won 89% of Democrats and Bush won Independents by 1%.

Do you think McCain will do a better job Swift-Boating Obama than Bush did Kerry?

Did Bush draw lots of Independents to him by these tactics? NO!

Bush won because he turned out more Republicans (11 million more)!

Only this year there AREN'T more Republicans for McCain to bring out.

Know what happens if McCain wins 93% of Republicans, Obama wins 89% of Democrats and McCain wins Independents by 1%, just like 2004?

Obama wins by 5.6% that's what! An Obama landslide! (see Nate's spreadsheet calculator).

Still think polarizing the race is a good idea for McCain? Of course you do! You're an idiot.

I could just as easily accuse you of knowing nothing about women voters because you aren't one, but that would be a really stupid argument, just like yours!

Comparing exit polls of actual voters on ELECTION ...

2008-08-01T18:52:00.000-04:00

Comparing exit polls of actual voters on ELECTION DAY (2004) to a telephone poll in July (2008)?

Pathetic.

This makes me wonder if anything on this site has any validity.

The cell phone problem is bunk. It was trotted out...

2008-08-01T18:51:00.000-04:00

The cell phone problem is bunk. It was trotted out in 2006 and 2008 but the Democrats did not overperform the polls.

Chuck Todd said VA isn't looking so blue because of military veterans, who heavily favor McCain.

For those looking for apples-to-apples comparisons...

2008-08-01T18:26:00.000-04:00

For those looking for apples-to-apples comparisons with 2000 and 2004, Pew has them, comparing polls from June 2000/2004/2008:
http://people-press.org/report/?pageid=1337

some fun facts:
-- McCain is getting the votes of fewer Democrat (9%) than Bush did in 2000/2004 (13%/10%)
-- Obama has made big gains with 18-29 year olds, winning them 56-36, where Kerry won them 55-44 and Gore LOST them 44-49.
-- Obama's down by 8 and 15 compared with Gore and Kerry among the 65+ group, but McCain's only up by 2 and 4, respectively, so there are lots of undecided seniors out there
-- Obama's gained a lot among voters with "some college," winning them 48-41, where Gore lost them 41-52 and Kerry lost them 41-54
-- he's underperforming slightly with white non-Hispanic Catholics, losing them 40-46 where Gore/Kerry lost them 45-48/47-48, but again the losses are going to "undecided," not to McCain
-- he's got a positive rout among the religiously unafiliated, winning them 67-24 (Gore own them 46-40, Kerry 65-29)

Three facts, all relevant:1.) The PUMAS are about ...

2008-08-01T18:14:00.001-04:00

Three facts, all relevant:

1.) The PUMAS are about as numerous as their wildlife namesakes. And NONE of these rare animals are voting for McCain.

2.) At the Gallup site, Obama has led McCain among independents by about 5 points for the entire month of July.

3.) An informal perusal of various threads at Free Republic shows a very dispirited and disgusted base. Thye hate Obama... but a whole lot of these hardcore Republicans dislike McCain enough that they are still threatening to sit out the election or vote 3rd party. And that's his base!

Given these three facts... how can the man possibly win? Slinging mud just won't be enough.

Pete Kent,"Where do you come off saying my stateme...

2008-08-01T18:14:00.000-04:00

Pete Kent,

"Where do you come off saying my statement about McCain closing the gap in the Gal tracker is false?"

Because it is. Again, check the site (www.gallup.com) and you will see that the gap in the daily tracking poll between Obama and McCain has expanded and contracted. Are you unable to read simple charts or are you just a bald-faced liar?

About drilling, you forget Americans are more concerned about the unregulated speculation that drives up the price of oil and enriched Big Oil at the cost of the middle class.

I like that McCain is running banner ads all over ...

2008-08-01T18:12:00.000-04:00

I like that McCain is running banner ads all over the blogs today pimping his latest ad. For those who don't know how this works, McCain has to pay for all click-thrus so please click away and bankrupt his ad budget. The country will thank you for it later.