Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Today's Polls, 10/27

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2009-10-03T04:23:23.843-04:00

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2009-03-12T05:41:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-12T05:41:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-08T21:32:00.000-05:00

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2009-01-17T05:21:00.000-05:00

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2009-01-17T05:20:00.000-05:00

Nate, Sean or anyone:Are there any studies/referen...

2008-10-30T07:59:00.000-04:00

Nate, Sean or anyone:

Are there any studies/references to the effect of caller id on polling data? It seems unlikely there would be a big skew to the R or D side.

Thanks.

===

This is an uneducated guess, but older land-line-only voters, I believe, are LESS likely to have caller ID.

I work with the elderly, and vision problems and reluctance to engage modern technology work against owning caller ID. And the habit, if you're an older voter, is to answer the phone. Easier to pick up and hang up than peer at the ID first.

So anyone with caller ID may be younger and busy enough that they want to screen their calls. Elderly people may pick up the phone out of loneliness as much as willingness to be polled (I also work as a telemarketer).

This could skew results.

..

These polling numbers reflect far more accuracy fr...

2008-10-29T00:48:00.000-04:00

These polling numbers reflect far more accuracy from polls exhibited with main-stream jargon (example CNN) especially for the following reasons:

#1 Considering the record numbers of new voters registering under the Democratic party, and
#2 Considering the ever shaky, albeit non-existent "platform" McCain is running on, not withstanding his choice of running mate

(hmmm, now why ever do I feel more at home in Wisconsin, than the years I spent in Oklahoma?)

greetings from the lost world...Oklahoma. We're no...

2008-10-28T15:22:00.000-04:00

greetings from the lost world...Oklahoma. We're not all red rednecks here. Tulsa and OKC have strong pockets of blue. But we are often punished for showing our colors.

Great website and posters. I look forward to contributing.

Dear RWC,What does "spread the wealth" mean? Is ta...

2008-10-28T14:07:00.000-04:00

Dear RWC,

What does "spread the wealth" mean? Is taxing the wealthy socialism? "Many Republicans have bitterly opposed the federal income tax since the 16th amendment was passed in 1913. Is McCain going to repeal the federal income tax? If so, how does he plan to finance the government? Or does he mean that the difference between the top rate of 39.6% under Bill Clinton and the top rate of 36% under George Bush is the difference between communism and capitalism? The purpose of the progressive federal income tax is to spread the wealth. That Democrats have supported a progressive income tax for decades is hardly news. Does McCain want to keep the tax but make it a flat tax (a la Steve Forbes)? No word on this. It seems this is just another desperate attempt to attack Obama rather than being a serious policy proposal for tax reform and it comes awfully late in the game. If McCain wanted to run on a platform of a flat tax, he certainly has had the opportunity, but until now he didn't bring up the subject."

So is taxing the wealthy by 3.6% more (the same tax rate experienced by the top 5% under Clinton) socialism? No. You remember the Clinton era right? Back when the economy was in good shape and the middle class was thriving.

GDI: "Are there any non-defense programs that you ...

2008-10-28T09:16:00.000-04:00

GDI: "Are there any non-defense programs that you libs would eliminate? Just one? Or even cut?"

When our military spends almost as much as the rest of the world combined, over $1trillion a year, more than 1/2 the federal discretionary spending, I tend to think that that's all the spending we need to look at.

But for argument's sake, other things I would cut:

The "War on Drugs," which takes up an inordinate amount of our police budget for the results, or lack there of, it gets.

Similarly, I would reduce or eliminate prison sentences for non-violent crimes, reducing the prison population by over 50%.

Corn ethanol subsidies. It's inefficient, better to spend it on algae and other alt. fuels sources.

That's just off the top of my head. I'm sure I can think of some more.

That enough?

*Should The top management of the Public listed co...

2008-10-28T09:02:00.000-04:00

*

Should The top management of the Public listed company be responsible for the company performance, eg company nearly get wind up?

http://bailoutmovie.blogspot.com/

Are you a Partisan?

Should they give their view......? Any regulation to prevent similiar thing from happen?

If any party did not give their views, send it to their supporter to question them....

On taxation: Obama's plan neither raises nor lowe...

2008-10-28T06:29:00.000-04:00

On taxation: Obama's plan neither raises nor lowers them overall -- gov't receipts will be about the same. (Personally I'd like to see them raised slightly, yes even on me, to start bringing the deficit down). Rather, he's asking high-income Americans (who received the bulk of the benefits from the Bush cuts) to pay taxes at Clinton rates, and cutting taxes for low- and middle-income Americans. So the way I see it, if W Bush had aimed his tax cuts at the working and middle class instead of the rich, then Obama wouldn't need a tax policy.

Of course, W didn't. I leave it to you to debate whether the anemic overall economic growth and stagnation of median wages is a consequence of that decision, or just a coincidence.

Oh yeah, and the last data I have is from 2006, but: the 100 wealthiest Americans paid 22% of their income in federal taxes, on average. We don't have a progressive system, we have a "hump-shaped" system, where the highest taxes fall on those making $100k - $500k in wages or salary. Once you hit the capital gains bracket (making money for having money, rather than making money for working), the living is easy.

If a vacancy occurs between elections, generally t...

2008-10-28T03:11:00.000-04:00

If a vacancy occurs between elections, generally the governor of the state appoints a replacement to serve as senator until the next biennial election.

Well, I don't think so? Because the Governor of A...

2008-10-28T02:39:00.000-04:00

Well, I don't think so? Because the Governor of Alaska doesn't get to designate the replacement for the Senator. They'd hold a special election for it. (Unless you mean it's different when he just resigns, rather than being expulsed?)

He's not dropping out (though I guess he doesn't have a choice if he wants to keep up appearances while appealing), but I wonder if he *would* be expulsed, since that requires 2/3rds of the Senate. How much do ~8 Repubs want to bolster their own reputations for being hard on corruption compared to the shit they'll get for betraying the party? The GOP Party, even? Also. Anyway, he clearly *doesn't* have the decency to resign, sigh.

emily,Maybe Stevens will have the decency to resig...

2008-10-28T02:17:00.000-04:00

emily,

Maybe Stevens will have the decency to resign (or croak). Then my scenario could play out.

Ironic, no.Finished, yes.

2008-10-28T02:15:00.000-04:00

Ironic, no.

Finished, yes.

You being the latest to respond to RWC, I can only...

2008-10-28T02:10:00.000-04:00

You being the latest to respond to RWC, I can only assume you're being ironic. XD

Why does everyone feel a need to respond to RWC?Ju...

2008-10-28T02:05:00.000-04:00

Why does everyone feel a need to respond to RWC?

Just ignore him and he will shut up and go away.

LOL McCain is losing hold of Arizona

2008-10-28T02:02:00.000-04:00

LOL McCain is losing hold of Arizona

Right Wing Conspiricist said... "Wealthy people...

2008-10-28T01:54:00.000-04:00

Right Wing Conspiricist said...

"Wealthy people already pay more than poor people, you moron libs. Always have, always will, regardless of whether the Messiah wins next week. The only critical difference between Obama and McCain is that Obama will start taking money directly from those who he decides have too much, and give it directly to people who he decides need it.

That is Marxist, and that is Obama. But you're too ignorant or lazy to understand that."

I pay taxes to send other people's kids to school and for other things that don't benefit me directly.

I would be willing to pay more taxes if I could be assured that Right Wing Conspiricist might learn something and quit making stupid statements.

It's probably too late for him, though. Some are just incapable of learning.

David R.In Alaska, if he is expulsed, they'd hol...

2008-10-28T01:45:00.000-04:00

David R.

In Alaska, *if* he is expulsed, they'd hold a special election for it. The Governor doesn't just get to appoint someone. (Whether she'd run in that special election is another thing, though, and I'd wonder if she could pull that off?)

paprbackwriter16 said... "Does anyone know what...

2008-10-28T01:40:00.000-04:00

paprbackwriter16 said...

"Does anyone know what the procedure is if Stevens continues running and is re-elected? I believe the Senate will most likely call for his expulsion, but what happens to the seat then? Does the Governor of his state (i.e. Palin) appoint someone? An any civic-savvy fivethirtyeighters out there clue us in?"

Yes.

Palin cuts a deal with the Lt. Governor. She steps down. He becomes governor. He appoints her to the Senate.

Dear Right Wing Conspiricist,We don't have to expl...

2008-10-28T01:36:00.000-04:00

Dear Right Wing Conspiricist,

We don't have to explain anything to you over the next 8 (at least) years.

Figure it out yourself.

Elliot Tarabour said... "It would be great to g...

2008-10-28T01:29:00.000-04:00

Elliot Tarabour said...

"It would be great to get to 60 withOUT Lieberman."

Don't worry, that weasel will vote with the dems, or he will be just as worthless as the repubs.

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Today's Polls, 10/27

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^^ nice blog!! ^@^徵信, 徵信網, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵...

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Nate, Sean or anyone:Are there any studies/referen...

These polling numbers reflect far more accuracy fr...

greetings from the lost world...Oklahoma. We're no...

Dear RWC,What does "spread the wealth" mean? Is ta...

GDI: "Are there any non-defense programs that you ...

*Should The top management of the Public listed co...

On taxation: Obama's plan neither raises nor lowe...

If a vacancy occurs between elections, generally t...

Well, I don't think so? Because the Governor of A...

emily,Maybe Stevens will have the decency to resig...

Ironic, no.Finished, yes.

You being the latest to respond to RWC, I can only...

Why does everyone feel a need to respond to RWC?Ju...

LOL McCain is losing hold of Arizona

Right Wing Conspiricist said... "Wealthy people...

David R.In Alaska, *if* he is expulsed, they'd hol...

paprbackwriter16 said... "Does anyone know what...

Dear Right Wing Conspiricist,We don't have to expl...

Elliot Tarabour said... "It would be great to g...

David R.In Alaska, if he is expulsed, they'd hol...