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2009-02-08T21:15:00.000-05:00

I agree with the other comments that the fame test...

2008-11-25T19:06:00.000-05:00

I agree with the other comments that the fame test is pretty silly, particularly if the guy is meant to be a placeholder. It sounds like he's a good choice. If he's savvy as a campaigner, rather than just as a policy-maker, he might find himself in the running for re-election, rather than just as a place-holder.

As for the Wikipedia link, asking for the most-recent 500 edits isn't a good way to show when the page was created, because it will show the wrong thing as soon as the edit count exceeds 500. Instead, this link requests the oldest page of edits in the edit history for the page, and will always show the beginning of the page's edit history.

"But I think there ought to be some minimum thresh...

2008-11-25T13:27:00.000-05:00

"But I think there ought to be some minimum threshold of public stature for a senate appointee "

Wow, what a bunch of elist nonsense.

Joe Biden was on the New Castle County Council for only 2 years(there's some stature for you) before he became a Senator!

And there is a minimum threshold of public stature. You have to be 30 years old! (Biden's age at swearing in!)

Do you want to bring back land owning requirements for voting, too!

Most of the legislature is actually written by aides like Ted Kauffman.

Okay, I can't resist, I have to tell my two storie...

2008-11-25T12:50:00.000-05:00

Okay, I can't resist, I have to tell my two stories about Delaware pollution. The first, I went swimming in the Delaware river as a kid. After I got out, I noticed my feet were covered in crude oil. Second, I went hunting (I used to be a little rednecky), shot a dove, took it home and ate it. I found out later my hunting grounds were an untreated superfund site. I'm surprised I don't have cancer.

I think that this is a perfectly acceptable appoin...

2008-11-25T12:33:00.000-05:00

I think that this is a perfectly acceptable appointment. I disagree that appointments need a certain level of notoriety, especially if they are there as a placeholder, as Kaufman obviously is.

So Ted Kaufman failed the notoriety, uh, notabilit...

2008-11-25T12:12:00.000-05:00

So Ted Kaufman failed the notoriety, uh, notability criterion for Wikipedia until two weeks ago. LOL. Better yet, Nate was savvy enough to catch it. LMAO. Great catch, Nate. As for the rest of you who think his lack of a Wikipedia page is silly, welcome to the 21st Century!

http://dir.salon.com/story/news/feature/2005/09/09...

2008-11-25T10:47:00.000-05:00

http://dir.salon.com/story/news/feature/2005/09/09/wasteland/index.html

That is the story from which the linked picture is taken. It is a photo of New Orleans, post-Katrina, NOT of Smyrna, DE. Please, change your link. You're not only trash talking a town you pretty obviously know nothing about, such blatant misinformation really calls your credibility on this issue into question.

@ Mark- I mean the 206 official 'randomly selected...

2008-11-25T10:04:00.000-05:00

@ Mark- I mean the 206 official 'randomly selected'preincts in which the election judges did an initial hand recount with no partisan observers making challenges. Of these about 160 have had subsequent recounts with challenges allowed, so on that subset one can see what (usually transient, according to all accounts) effects the challenges are having in distorting the results.

There are also over 2000 precincts on which no challenges were actually made, but they are obviously not the ones where the interesting action is, i.e. they are not even close to a random sample.

I took the 160 or so precincts for which we happen to have a very good idea of what the ultimate count will be (these are distributed throughout the state) and used them to check whether there was any effect of differential challenge rates distorting the current running count. There was, but it was small and not statistically significant. Extrapolation to the rest of the state could be slightly off because these precincts were slightly less urban than typical, but in light of the statistical errors I doubt that systematic error (of unknown sign) is important.

A detail: if the new recount was still unchallenged, I used it as the final result. If there were challenges I used min(old, new+challenge) as the count for each candidate.

@ Fred- What "model'? What "linear"? What assumption about precincts being identical? You just made that stuff up. Are you familiar with Emily Littella?/mbw

@ Mark- I mean the 206 official 'randomly selected...

2008-11-25T10:02:00.000-05:00

@ Mark- I mean the 206 official 'randomly selected'preincts in which the election judges did an initial hand recount with no partisan observers making challenges. Of these about 160 have had subsequent recounts with challenges allowed, so on that subset one can see what (almost all transient, according to all accounts) effects the challenges are having in distorting the results.

There are also over 2000 precincts on which no challenges were actually made, but they are obviously not the ones where the interesting action is, i.e. they are not even close to a random sample.

I took the 160 or so precincts for which we happen to have a very good idea of what the ultimate count will be (these are distributed throughout the state) and used them to check whether there was any effect of differential challenge rates distorting the current running count. There was, but it was small and not statistically significant. Extrapolation to the rest of the state could be slightly off because these precincts were slightly less urban than typical, but in light of the statistical errors I doubt that systematic error (of unknown sign) is important.

A detail: if the new recount was still unchallenged, I used it as the final result. If there were challenges I used min(old, new+challenge) as the count for each candidate.

@ Fred- What "model'? What "linear"? What assumption about precincts being identical? You just made that stuff up. Are you familiar with Emily Littella?/mbw

Elected office shouldn't be a precursor/requiremen...

2008-11-25T07:45:00.000-05:00

Elected office shouldn't be a precursor/requirement for those named to a senate seat. Harris Wofford had never held any elected office on a statewide or national level when he was named to take over John Heintz's seat back in the early 90s. Yes, he had headed the Peace Corps and done other important things (which I do think are more relevant than being someone's chief of staff) but he was a good senator for Pennsylvania and the US.

Tomorrow Never Dies was okay, when I was thirteen....

2008-11-25T06:15:00.000-05:00

Tomorrow Never Dies was okay, when I was thirteen.

Goddamn, enough with the "I'm so much more politic...

2008-11-25T02:16:00.000-05:00

Goddamn, enough with the "I'm so much more politically astute/more mathematically expert/more knowledgeable about the geographical superiority of white sand vs black sand" carping.

Being that this is Nate's site; he can post to it whatever the f*ck he wants, be it stats, analysis, opinions, photos of his toenails, or a 10,000 word contemplation of his navel lint. You clowns who don't approve, go start your own site. Good luck getting a fraction of the traffic this site enjoys.

Stop hatin' on Ted Kaufman. His sister taught me ...

2008-11-25T01:07:00.000-05:00

Stop hatin' on Ted Kaufman. His sister taught me in college. They're good people!

This guy sounds like an excellent place-holder to ...

2008-11-25T00:33:00.000-05:00

This guy sounds like an excellent place-holder to do what the voters expected when they voted for Biden.

Meanwhile, Jones would be a bad pick in IL. The most important task for D's here is to distance ourselves a much as possible from the corrupt Blago regime. Jones is the last guy to do that. A placeholder is ok, so long as they don't magnify our worst image problems.

/mbw

"but you are not a very smart person nor do you pr...

2008-11-25T00:18:00.000-05:00

"but you are not a very smart person nor do you present anything worth reading or discussing."

Do you say that every time you look in a mirror Ass Rider?

Oh Biden, I do look forward to your gaffe-tastic s...

2008-11-25T00:04:00.000-05:00

Oh Biden, I do look forward to your gaffe-tastic self these next four years. I was so afraid it was going to be Chris Dodd for VP. I have nothing against Dodd, he's a nice man and very qualified, but boring, and with a name that suspiciously like like Dudd. Accurate, that, given his performance in the primaries.

I digress. While I like the Bidens, I must admit the idea of a place-holder Senator disturbs me more than a little. For one thing, dynasty politics is unpleasant business in a democracy that was formed as a rejection of European primogeniture. If you were to take a look at just the last names of those holding elected office at the federal level, most of what you would see would be the same names that have been in power for a century, maybe longer. You ahve your Bushes and Clintons and Gores and Stevensons and Kennedys, your Landrieus and your Jacksons. same names, nothing changes when you look at it that way.

And now, we can add the Bidens to that list. American monarchy.

You know, this is kinda why I voted for the big O. My whole life, it,s been either President Bush or President Clinton. I just wanted a change of names, you know? To break up the monotony.

I kinda disagree with you here, Nate. First off, t...

2008-11-24T23:18:00.000-05:00

I kinda disagree with you here, Nate. First off, there's a long history of precedent of appointing a deceased incumbent's spouse to the job in the House and Senate (Representative Bono, et alia) based on the belief that being the closest to the person in question, they're in the best position to interpret that person's character and judgement (channel it, if you will.) And for an admitted placeholder, the Chief of Staff is probably the next best thing to a spouse. Having worked for a congressional office (albeit for only a year) I can assure you that the Chief of Staff is the optimal choice.

For one thing, you can rest assured they WON'T be running, which you can't with another politician. They'll follow instructions int he meantime -- and the voters of Delaware voted Biden to the office, knowing full well he may also become VP. I don't think there's anything underhanded here at all. It's the best way to see the will of the voters carried out.

Who better to fill the post in the short term than...

2008-11-24T22:56:00.000-05:00

Who better to fill the post in the short term than someone with extensive knowledge and experience and no ambition to hold elected office?

That people outside of Delaware haven't heard of him isn't significant. This is far better than having the gov appoint herself.

Kaufman is not unknown in DE, it is a tiny state. ...

2008-11-24T21:50:00.000-05:00

Kaufman is not unknown in DE, it is a tiny state. I think the people f DE are thankful they get to makea choice in a few years.

Kaufman is a better choice than Jones, as Jones is a simple Chicago machine hack with no knowledge of DC. Jones would fail for two years in DC, Kaufmenwill be a succesful placeholder and is thuis a better choice for DE.

Do try to stick to numbers more, these are fun as a sometimes post but numbers are your thing Nate. Aren't there any numbers in GA?

Why does "prominence" matter? There needs to be s...

2008-11-24T21:05:00.000-05:00

Why does "prominence" matter? There needs to be some rationale behind this distinction for it to make any difference. If placeholders are good, then the only thing required of the placeholder is being able to do a good job in the interim. By all accounts, as Biden's chief of staff, he should competently represent the people of Delaware with similar policy views as the recently elected Biden. Just as I prefer a placeholder in Illinois, I think this also was the right decision.

I strongly disagree. The governor is free to appoi...

2008-11-24T20:54:00.000-05:00

I strongly disagree. The governor is free to appoint whoever they want. They SHOULD appoint the most capable person, regardless of whether they're related to the person or not, an elected official or not.

Doesn't have a Wikipedia page? Please tell me tha...

2008-11-24T20:50:00.000-05:00

Doesn't have a Wikipedia page? Please tell me that was sarcasm.
That a person is not well-known is neither here nor there.

I think it fine to appoint someone on the basis of ability to perform the functions of the job well.

Everything else is just politics and not statesmanship. Not that I am opposed to politics.

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Dubious in Delaware

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I agree with the other comments that the fame test...

"But I think there ought to be some minimum thresh...

Okay, I can't resist, I have to tell my two storie...

I think that this is a perfectly acceptable appoin...

So Ted Kaufman failed the notoriety, uh, notabilit...

http://dir.salon.com/story/news/feature/2005/09/09...

@ Mark- I mean the 206 official 'randomly selected...

@ Mark- I mean the 206 official 'randomly selected...

Elected office shouldn't be a precursor/requiremen...

Tomorrow Never Dies was okay, when I was thirteen....

Goddamn, enough with the "I'm so much more politic...

Stop hatin' on Ted Kaufman. His sister taught me ...

This guy sounds like an excellent place-holder to ...

"but you are not a very smart person nor do you pr...

Oh Biden, I do look forward to your gaffe-tastic s...

I kinda disagree with you here, Nate. First off, t...

Who better to fill the post in the short term than...

Kaufman is not unknown in DE, it is a tiny state. ...

Why does "prominence" matter? There needs to be s...

I strongly disagree. The governor is free to appoi...

Doesn't have a Wikipedia page? Please tell me tha...

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Dubious in Delaware

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I agree with the other comments that the fame test...

"But I think there ought to be some minimum thresh...

Okay, I can't resist, I have to tell my two storie...

I think that this is a perfectly acceptable appoin...

So Ted Kaufman failed the notoriety, uh, notabilit...

http://dir.salon.com/story/news/feature/2005/09/09...

@ Mark- I mean the 206 official 'randomly selected...

@ Mark- I mean the 206 official 'randomly selected...

Elected office shouldn't be a precursor/requiremen...

Tomorrow Never Dies was okay, when I was thirteen....

Goddamn, enough with the "I'm so much more politic...

Stop hatin' on Ted Kaufman. His sister taught me ...

This guy sounds like an excellent place-holder to ...

"but you are not a very smart person nor do you pr...

Oh Biden, I do look forward to your gaffe-tastic s...

I kinda disagree with you here, Nate. First off, t...

Who better to fill the post in the short term than...

Kaufman is not unknown in DE, it is a tiny state. ...

Why does "prominence" matter? There needs to be s...

I strongly disagree. The governor is free to appoi...

Doesn't have a Wikipedia page? Please tell me tha...

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