Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Anatomy of a Polling Disaster

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2009-10-03T05:00:02.748-04:00

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2009-09-11T08:53:07.025-04:00

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2009-09-11T08:45:18.492-04:00

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2009-02-08T20:34:00.000-05:00

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2009-01-17T04:39:00.000-05:00

Since the current poll didn't indicate sample size...

2008-10-30T23:45:00.000-04:00

Since the current poll didn't indicate sample size, I used the PEW Research data of 25,000 interviews which broke down as:
Dems 38%
Repubs 28%
Inds 34%

Using those numbers the true numbers should reflect:
Obama 51%
McCain 40%
Undecided 9%

That's quite a difference.

I am prone to distrust the polls and though I find...

2008-10-30T21:38:00.000-04:00

I am prone to distrust the polls and though I find myself watching them constantly, I frankly wish they weren’t even available to observe. It boils this election process down to little more than a horse race. You can bet on the outcome. You can watch the daily fluctuations and wonder why one pollster can have Obama up by 2 points, while another has him up by 13. And then there is John McCain, suggesting he has a plan, and that he will win and show everyone what idiots the pollsters and pundits have been. I wonder if the pollsters will offer some of their fees back if somehow their predictions and analysis has been...flawed. I mean, they have had Obama up by so much for so long, how this can be overturned....and if it is, will it be the will of the voters or some more sinister force. One hesitates to go down that road.

With a week left, there will be attacks, if possible even more acidic than last week, or the week before that. Vitriol will flow from candidate’s mouths to their supporter’s ears, and what they say will become fact, regardless of how ridiculous. The undecided will sit in their Lazy Boys and ponder whether they really need to decide at all. I hope they do, but I can see how they might want to turn off the cable news shows and watch some sports....the World Series is on Fox...nope scratch that...we’ll have to wait for that 3 inning spectacle for some night when winter has not made its presence known.

Still, it is our obsession with sports that prepares us to dissect the pre-election data. Every candidate’s strengths and weaknesses laid out like a batter’s tendencies against left or right handed pitching. How many sacks has he endured? How many fumbles? How many home runs? This has in fact been an election with few home runs, McCain was thought to have homered when he picked Sarah Palin, but upon further review, that looks more like a ground rule double...at best. In fact, because of that pick the McCain campaign has apparently started to point fingers. Like the Yankees...all that star power and no playoffs. Or worse, the Raiders....a rudderless ship bouncing from rock to rock in search of a safe place to anchor.

On Election Night, we will have game time. All the stats from the “pre-season” will tell us which states to watch, and we will be familiar with each candidate’s strongest spots on the map. But just like in real sports, upsets occurs. The team with the best quarterback, or ground game, does not always win. Sometimes, the other team just wants it more. Sometimes you play a better game, but don’t score enough points. Sometimes the ref makes a bad call that costs you a touchdown, or perhaps a state like Florida. Sometimes, there is a little known player on the other team, “Hanging Chad” who comes out of nowhere to steal the show.

President Bush came to power under the most suspicious circumstances, and his presidency, in some circles, was played more or less under protest. That it has ended so badly is either his just reward, or a punishment for our country for allowing the election process to be co-opted by those unimpressed by democracy. Beyond any other need, our country badly needs a good positive election...about things that matter, and without a whiff of tampering. We need a president installed by the majority, with a mandate to be above all, successful. To lead us, and restore our faith in the system. At the end of the day, this is what George W. Bush has deprived us of....faith.

There is not much pithy to say about the next week. I fear the October surprise...a tape from OBL, a terrorist plot, another plot to assassinate a candidate. Why can’t we all just get along, I wonder. Too late for that, I guess. So instead....lets not spend time looking for the silver bullet or the “gotcha moment”. Instead, this is a request that the candidates stop talking of their opponent and speak only of what they will do, how they will do it, and why we should give them something as valuable as our vote.
http://critpatriot.blogspot.com/

Just to tack on to the subgroup problem here... th...

2008-10-30T19:40:00.000-04:00

Just to tack on to the subgroup problem here... there are only 25-30 youth voters in the sample. 30 people leads to a margin of error of 18% and is pretty much the bare minimum for assuming a normal distribution.
The Jewish group has half of that? Then you don't report anything, because under no circumstance is 15 people enough to make any relevant conclusion from. The margin of error for a poll of 15 people (which is meaningless anyway, since the normality assumption is invalid) would be over 25%. Silly.

FLLOLon election night we will see who wins FL

2008-10-30T18:43:00.000-04:00

FL

LOL

on election night we will see who wins FL

Michael said... THE TRUE REASON CRIST EXTENDED EAR...

2008-10-30T18:25:00.000-04:00

Michael said...
THE TRUE REASON CRIST EXTENDED EARLY VOTING IN FLORIDA

A Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll gave McCain a 49-45 lead over Democrat Barack Obama among Floridians who have already voted. 1.4 million voters have gone to the polls early.

The Money Quote:

And Republicans continued to show a traditional strength, leading 50 percent to the Democrats’ 30 percent in the 1.2 million absentee ballots already returned.

*********
Since most of the Republican votes in early voting is coming from absentee voting, how does extending early voting help the Republicans? Since people mail in absentee ballots, it doesn't matter what the hours are?
Also, if 50% of absentees have voted Republican and 30% have voted Democrat? Who did the other 20% voting for?
The last I heard down here in Florida is that while Rpeublicans are leading Democrats in the absentee balloting by a 3-2 margin, the Democrats are leading the Republicans by a 2-1 margin in the in person early voting.
Last night, someone posted a Bloomberg poll from Florida that said Obama was leading in the early voting in Florida, so I don't know which number is correct. Either way, I expect McCain to win Florida in the end. The young voters are yet to show up in Florida as they have bene predicting.

The polls you mention had Bush without 50% in all ...

2008-10-30T18:11:00.000-04:00

The polls you mention had Bush without 50% in all the polls. Obama is over 50% in many polls and has an average around 50% furthermore Obama has higher leads than Bush.

You also forget that Bush's DUI did not come to light until days before the election.

All true. Also, Bush famously visited California on the advice of Karl Rove in a bogus exercise in showing bravado rather than continuing to fight in the battlegrounds. Something tells me Obama is not making the same mistake.

>> There are still sharecroppers?Technically, yes....

2008-10-30T17:51:00.000-04:00

>> There are still sharecroppers?

Technically, yes. It's actually more common now than say 20 years ago. But they aren't exactly the images of old. The difference is that the sharecropper is likely to have several 100's of thousands of dollars in equipment. They are trying to run a larger scale operation for better margins but lack the capital/credit to buy the land in their area, or are just unable to convince the landowner (who inhereted the land or retired from farming) to sell at the price that the sharecropper is willing to pay.

Michael @ 1:26 --Re: 2000 polling a week before th...

2008-10-30T17:45:00.000-04:00

Michael @ 1:26 --

Re: 2000 polling a week before the election.

(1) The Bush DWI story hadn't really broken yet.

(2) Gore had a superior GOTV operation.

The answer to the Fox party weighting question:htt...

2008-10-30T17:41:00.000-04:00

The answer to the Fox party weighting question:

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,95854,00.html

A properly conducted national probability sample should accurately reflect national attitudes. However, particularly because FOX News polls are normally conducted over only two nights (limiting the opportunity for callbacks), some demographic deviation is possible. Opinion Dynamics Corporation compares each sample of respondents with a constantly updated database of demographic information about the national voting population and, when necessary, minor weights are applied to key demographic variables to bring the sample into conformity with the most reliable demographic profiles. FOX News polls are not weighted by political party.

There you have it -- they don't weight by party, which accounts for the change from last poll.

"why isn't OBAMA up by more the 15 to 20%?"What co...

2008-10-30T17:36:00.000-04:00

"why isn't OBAMA up by more the 15 to 20%?"

What could it be? What could it be? I just can't put my finger on it. Maybe one of the Alabama commenters could weigh in. Just what could it be......?

Nice job, Nate. It's hard to imagine anything mor...

2008-10-30T17:23:00.001-04:00

Nice job, Nate. It's hard to imagine anything more tiresome and pointless than an incompetent pollster...except, perhaps, for an average political candidate.

This is my last read of this website. What may ha...

2008-10-30T17:23:00.000-04:00

This is my last read of this website. What may have passed for an unbiased analysis has swiftly became a Democrat propaganda tool. All polls have weaknesses (have we forgotten earlier analyses).

Let's acknowledge the BIGGEST assumption in all the polls ... that is that substantially more DEMOCRATS will vote (despite historic trends) than REPUBLICANS. Although I think the overall voting percentage will be higher this year ... I'm not so sure of the Democrat / Republican split.

Also, lets acknowledge the elephant in the room ... with the state of the economy and the Iraq war, lowest approval rates in history ... why isn't OBAMA up by more the 15 to 20%?

Latest poll shows McCain winning with 75% of the v...

2008-10-30T17:10:00.000-04:00

Latest poll shows McCain winning with 75% of the vote ===> http://jupiterarrowfire.blogspot.com/2008/10/re-who-are-you-voting-for.html

For all tro//s trying to blow smoke up our collect...

2008-10-30T17:02:00.000-04:00

For all tro//s trying to blow smoke up our collective arses. Going by straight state polling Obama is up 375 - 175 in EC votes.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

On this day in 2004 Bush was up on Kerry 280 - 243 in the EC.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Oct30.html

So explain to me how McCain is going to catch up 200 EC votes when Kerry could not catch up with 37?

michiganmaine said... "Except Obama leads by mu...

2008-10-30T16:55:00.000-04:00

michiganmaine said...

"Except Obama leads by much more than that. You are simply cherry picking the worst of the polls--the one that is obviously fixed. Anyhow, this is a state-by-state race. Show us how that would work without cherry picking. You can't and you know it, so you won't even answer that request. So make a real argument or on your bike."

Great point I watch the EC college polls like a hawk in 2004. Bush never got near 300 ECVs based on state polling at that time.

Great historical reference for 2004 race.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Oct30.html

Politowitz said... "Not to throw cold water on ...

2008-10-30T16:50:00.000-04:00

Politowitz said...

"Not to throw cold water on everyone, but it's worth having a look at the polling data from 2000:

ABC: 48/45
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP 48/42
FOX/OPINION DYNAMICS 43/43
HOTLINE 47/40
IBD/CSM/TIPP 47/42
MARIST COLLEGE 49/44
NEWSWEEK 45/43
REUTERS/MSNBC 45/42
VOTER.COM (BATTLEGROUND) 46/37"

The polls you mention had Bush without 50% in all the polls. Obama is over 50% in many polls and has an average around 50% furthermore Obama has higher leads than Bush.

You also forget that Bush's DUI did not come to light until days before the election.

RCP Average 10/23 - 10/29 -- -- 49.9 43.7 Obama +6.2
FOX News 10/28 - 10/29 924 LV 3.0 47 44 Obama +3
Rasmussen Reports 10/27 - 10/29 3000 LV 2.0 51 46 Obama +5
Gallup (Traditional)* 10/27 - 10/29 1825 LV 2.0 50 45 Obama +5
Gallup (Expanded)* 10/27 - 10/29 2437 LV 2.0 51 44 Obama +7
Diageo/Hotline 10/27 - 10/29 869 LV 3.6 48 42 Obama +6
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby 10/27 - 10/29 1179 LV 2.9 50 43 Obama +7
IBD/TIPP 10/25 - 10/29 894 LV 3.0 48 44 Obama +4
ABC News/Wash Post 10/25 - 10/28 1316 LV 2.5 52 44 Obama +8
GWU/Battleground 10/23 - 10/29 1000 LV 3.1 49 46 Obama +3
Ipsos/McClatchy 10/23 - 10/27 831 LV 3.4 50 45 Obama +5
Pew Research 10/23 - 10/26 1198 LV 3.5 53 38 Obama +15

Very bad comparison.

Seth O'Toole said... Now that things are windin...

2008-10-30T16:40:00.000-04:00

Seth O'Toole said...

Now that things are winding down and 538 - and its commenters - are cemented in the fabric of this election cycle, it's time for some awards.

Who are some of the best - and worst - commenters on this site since its inception.

We could have several catgories like:

Best Overall
Most Partisan
Most Insightful/Intellectual
Best Satirist/Parody/Sarcastic
Most Ignorant
What does everyone think?"

We should have categories for "Most Amusing!" "Best Troll" and "Best Faux Concern-Trolling In An Individual Post"

Most Amusing: HE for his constant references to "Simper Fi!" and other hilarious rants.

Best Troll: Mule-Humper, who manages to hijack every single thread he enters and make it all about him.

Best Concern Trolling-Single Post: There are too many entries in this category.

Best Use of Cut & Paste Function: Pete Kent

Most Informative: Modeler, Humanist

WV: "cologio" -- a new form of Bi-partisanship & Collegiality Obama will use as President: involves calling up Harry Reid and Hillary Clinton to ask them what they think.

According to preliminary ratings numbers from the ...

2008-10-30T16:29:00.000-04:00

According to preliminary ratings numbers from the networks, more than 26 million people watched the program on CBS, NBC or Fox. That's 3 million more than usually watch those networks at that hour, according to the Hollywood Reporter. Averaging in the cable networks that also carried the event, about 30 million people in all saw the long-form campaign ad.

Yesterday, someone posted that the US embassy in D...

2008-10-30T16:25:00.000-04:00

Yesterday, someone posted that the US embassy in Damascus being shut down today was a hint of something big in the offing.

My random guess was that, well, maybe the Syrian gov't was planning a demonstration protesting the border incursion last weekend.

I guess right.

http://english.sina.com/world/2008/1030/195217.html

Let's see what we can come up with next....

I'm finding myself muting the TV now when they swi...

2008-10-30T16:24:00.000-04:00

I'm finding myself muting the TV now when they switch to Palin or McCain speaking. I'm so tired of their voices.