Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Today's Polls, 9/4

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2009-03-12T01:35:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-12T01:35:00.000-04:00

I'm a newbie... a lurker?? I dunno. but what I w...

2008-09-06T01:46:00.000-04:00

I'm a newbie... a lurker?? I dunno.

but what I want to understand is this: why are Republicans so in love with the bully persona? why is belligerance the default? Here they are, they've been in power for 8 long and miserable years, and they still come off with that chip on their shoulder, as if someone's taken away their ice cream.... it's downright Orwellian, listening to Republicans... cognitive dissonance, an alternate universe.

Sarah Palin is like the Jamie Lynn Spears of politics... somehow 17 and pregnant is now HEROIC, a virtue. it's ok, it's personal, but is it really a role model?? I find her really vicious.

I'm always stymied by what resonates with people... when did bullies become heroes?

Comparing the impression left by the Republican co...

2008-09-05T00:25:00.000-04:00

Comparing the impression left by the Republican convention vs. the Democratic convention may fortell a disaster for the Republicans. Appearances count. The Republicans looked amateurish. The crowd listening to McCain was schizophrenic -- many looked bored or stunned. The graphics were awful, showing him against a blue screen or green screen much of the time. McCain seemed stiff, slow, with terrible timing, and little punch until the last 30 sec. The homemade signs had misspellings "Mavrick". When's the last time you saw "Peace" on a sign at a Republican Convention? They are trying to pretend they are the party of change, but you could see uneasiness everywhere. By contrast, the Democrats were polished, on message, and the faces of the constituents looked determined to win. The Republicans used to look fantastic, and the Dems disorganized. Not anymore. Palin was good when given a speech to read; we'll see what happens when she has to wing it. McCain may love our country (who doesn't) but he looks like the gambler. Obama looks cautious and conservative by comparison.

PeteKent,Palin is a neccessary tool right now. Mcc...

2008-09-04T22:07:00.001-04:00

PeteKent,
Palin is a neccessary tool right now. Mccain needed someone different, a CHANGE...he hopes that she will rev up the base then give him a chance to win. He feels he can then control her. After all she is a govenor of a state that does not have the population of the district that Obama had in Chicago.

By the end of the first year of Obama's term, some magazine will unearth the name Palin and remind us of the first woman in the republican party named for the VP nod.
As far as Mrs. Palin, all I could think of was why is that five month old baby not in his bad...it was after midnight and that child was being passed from hand to hand. Another tool.

PeteKent,Palin is a neccessary tool right now. Mcc...

2008-09-04T22:07:00.000-04:00

Poll methodology makes a huge difference in the pr...

2008-09-04T21:51:00.000-04:00

Poll methodology makes a huge difference in the predictive value of polls. For instance, additional questions regarding events related to the race are often asked, sometimes before asking "Who will you vote for" (CBS/NYT?). Most of these polls are intended to generate headlines, not to make predictions. Also, the fraction of people who are really undecided is much higher than most of these polls suggest, since they ask "who would you vote for today" and they also push undecideds to choose.

For an interesting discussion of such things, see Wednesday's Diane Rehm Show featuring John Zogby and David Moore:

http://wamu.org/programs/dr/08/09/03.php#21032

That CBS poll is a major buzzkill.I hope its due t...

2008-09-04T20:00:00.000-04:00

That CBS poll is a major buzzkill.

I hope its due to the change in party weighting, although maybe more people are self-identifying as Repubs.

peteKent wrote:Sarah Palin's speech generated 37.2...

2008-09-04T19:18:00.000-04:00

peteKent wrote:
Sarah Palin's speech generated 37.2 million viewers, just a 1.1 million viewers fewer than watch Barak Obama's Invesco Field acceptance speech. As Nielsen notes, only six networks carried Palin's speech compared with ten for Obama's.

That base must be pretty big, Nate!

You are seriously asserting that everyone who watched Palin's speech was part of the Republican base?

This counts as your most delusional remark yet, and that is quite an accomplishment.
The ratings actually turn against her if there isn't a bounce. You can't say that nobody saw her acceptance speech, and that if they only knew her they would vote for McCain.

Pete, you predicted incredible gains for McCain when the pick was announced. There has been enough time for the frenzy that you promised (nay, guaranteed!) to work it's way through the polls.
You were wrong then, and you are wrong now...except that now you are completely delusional as well.

Here's the key thing about the CBS poll, whatever ...

2008-09-04T19:15:00.000-04:00

Here's the key thing about the CBS poll, whatever the internals. McCain is still only at 42%. He's rarely cracked 43% in any poll, including this one. Those aren't winning numbers.

Check out the internals on the CBS poll. Most of ...

2008-09-04T19:08:00.000-04:00

Check out the internals on the CBS poll. Most of the shift is coming from a change in the partisan mix of the sample:

The Previous CBS Poll

874 Respondents
228 R = 26.2%
308 D = 35.24%
337 I = 38.55%

The NEW CBS Poll

691 Respondents

215 R = 31.11%
241 D = 34.07%
235 I = 34.00%

We are far enough into the Palin phenomenon to see...

2008-09-04T19:05:00.000-04:00

We are far enough into the Palin phenomenon to see that virtually all of the wild hyperbole that was spewed all over here has proven to be unfounded.

The announcement of the pick has already worked its way through the polling, and it's come up with nothing. All of the things that we knew about Palin at the time of the announcement (Governor, mom, former mayor, hunts/fishes, Downs syndrome baby, etc.) have failed to gain any traction with voters. Yet these are the precisely the same characteristics that were highlighted by those making a case for the electoral influence of Palin's acceptance speech at the Convention. It didn't work before, but now somehow it will be a hit.

Likewise, the idea that there would be immediate and strongly negative repucussions from the "5th child" story has been largely disposed of. There has been enough time now that such a backlash would have been noticed in the polls. And the positive effects of the engagement of Bristol has not shown up, either.

Palin seems to be able to generate interest, but not votes. And she doesn't seem to be generating a tiny fraction of the fear among Democrats that conservatives have claimed.

If there is no significant bounce (3 or more points) by Saturday for McCain, there will be no way for the conservatives to spin Palin as anything more than a "miss". Conservatives will have to come up with some rather bogus-sounding explanations about it "taking time" for her appeal to translate into votes, or some other weasel words.

If Palin fails to grab votes, McCain has nothing more than recycling the same smears that have failed to gain traction for the next two months. And he will be restricted to public financing up until the election.

I'm sure Sara Palin's rating, were as much curious...

2008-09-04T19:04:00.000-04:00

I'm sure Sara Palin's rating, were as much curious Obama supporters, as well as curious "auto wreck" watchers as well.

The new CBS poll is totally fabricated, and is jus...

2008-09-04T18:54:00.000-04:00

The new CBS poll is totally fabricated, and is just media manipulation.

Here's the party ID shift, a blogger on Kos reported:

Party ID Change Worth 6 PTS CBS (13+ / 0-)
Recommended by:dlcox1958, marchmoon, sgilman, Chicago Lulu, IndyScott, averageyoungman, waitingforvizzini, Inventor, Strabo, allie123, Not Brit, Tricky, Just Bob
The Previous CBS Poll

874 Respondents
228 R = 26.2%
308 D = 35.24%
337 I = 38.55%

The NEW CBS Poll

691 Respondents

215 R = 31.11%
241 D = 34.07%
235 I = 34.00%

'A Time Comes When Silence Is Betrayal"

by Engaged Voter on Thu Sep 04, 2008 at 05:29:57 PM EST

[ Reply to This | RecommendHide ]

http://www.dailykos.com/comments/2008/9/4/154957/5651/76#c76

I find the breakdown on the television ratings to ...

2008-09-04T18:49:00.000-04:00

I find the breakdown on the television ratings to be quite interesting...these are viewers by network for the VP speech nights:

Joe Biden:
---------------------
CNN: 5,383,000
NBC: 5,361,000
ABC: 3,483,000
CBS: 3,462,000
FOXNEWS: 2,699,000
MSNBC: 2,270,000

Sarah Palin:
--------------
FOXNEWS 9,038,000
NBC 7,720,000
CNN 6,114,000
ABC 5,050,000
CBS 4,630,000
MSNBC 3,277,000

Fox News seems popular for republican speeches.

stuart: From what my reader shows this morning, sh...

2008-09-04T18:40:00.000-04:00

stuart: From what my reader shows this morning, she's still in seclusion? No interviews of any kind, in any context?
Man, they are terrified of a non-friendly audience.

Biden had better be getting ready for the debates.

Speaking of, did you hear about how Frothy Mix described Palin's learning curve and preparation process?
“She will learn and she will, she will learn at uh, you know, with uh, with a, with a firehose attached to her mouth.

Regarding Obama's work as a Communtiy Organizer- I...

2008-09-04T18:37:00.000-04:00

Regarding Obama's work as a Communtiy Organizer- It took place after Undergraduate School(Columbia University) and before Graduate School(Harvard Law School). This was from 1985-1988.

Sarah Palin graduated from College University of Idaho in 1988- she worked as Sports Reporter.

Sarah Palin's political career in the Wasilla City Council started in 1992- She got elected Mayor in 1996-2002- She served on the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commision until 2006- She was elected Governor.

In 1992- Obama graduated from Harvard Law School- He moved back to Chicago taught Con Law for 12 years at University of Chicago Law School - He also worked as an associate at a Civil Rights Law Firm. - In 1996- He was elected to the IL State Senate- served their until 2004-

McCain may get a 1 day +2 or so bounce from Palins...

2008-09-04T18:33:00.000-04:00

McCain may get a 1 day +2 or so bounce from Palins speech based on MSM media adulation Last night. However MSM has moved to key words "mocking", "smug", sarcastic, today so the McCain bounce will go negative.

And as long as Palin is shielded from press I would except her negatives to continue to increase among dems and inds.

Good to hear.I'm not a Democratic Undergrounder dr...

2008-09-04T18:31:00.000-04:00

Good to hear.

I'm not a Democratic Undergrounder dreaming of Bush's frogmarch across the White House lawn or anything, but I don't trust the GOP for not showing more anger with the man who led to the death of XYZ many soldiers with that "let it ride" thing for so long.
And on the political front, I remember how angry Repubs were when Rumsfeld resigned and changed strategy after the midterm losses. Politicos were pissed after spending (and wasting) so much capital to defend him and suffering such losses anyway, and on the other side of the fence, it seemed like troop deaths and country going down the crapper necessitated no change in strategy but Congressional losses did?
Anyway, I'm officially overplaying at someone who conceded a point quite gracefully, so I'll shut up now.

I agree Bush was completely off on his post invasi...

2008-09-04T18:22:00.000-04:00

I agree Bush was completely off on his post invasion plans. Rumsfeld was trusted and that was the single greatest error of the Bush administration, even more than the invasion itself.

It is an issue to the military vote, and it is the...

2008-09-04T18:21:00.000-04:00

It is an issue to the military vote, and it is the main reason people hate Bush.

As Iraq gets better, the hate wears off and people realize, hey, we won - and why would i vote to risk defeat by prematurely pulling out?

Geoff: 90% is hanging out. Exactly. At least we're...

2008-09-04T18:20:00.000-04:00

Geoff: 90% is hanging out. Exactly. At least we're following some kind of strategy now. Kind of. Which, I may add, doesn't for one second excuse Bush for criminal disaster he led the military to over there. Why doesn't the GOP hold him accountable if they hold the military in such high esteem?

MPM: Ok, so the code of conduct thing isn't really relevant to this debate: got it.

And another point I don't think raised here is that Ron Paul, IIRC, outraised all the GOP candidates? The guy who wanted to withdraw from Iraq? My larger point here is that the constant narrative that the Dems "hate" the troops and dishonor the military when it was the GOP that sent them off to die with no plan or strategy was the #1 reason I abandoned the GOP. The hypocritical claim to not only love the military but defend it from the Dems yet leaving our young people to die for years with no plans leaves me, still, angry.
40 years in the wilderness isn't punishment enough.

Did I just get in a time machine and go back to Ju...

2008-09-04T18:18:00.000-04:00

Did I just get in a time machine and go back to June?

Iraq is a non issue, both candidates are identical now.

No Rhys, he hasnt. This is clearly damage control ...

2008-09-04T18:17:00.000-04:00

No Rhys, he hasnt.

This is clearly damage control and good timing on Cainer's big day.

In July he stated the surge did not reduce the violence, instead it was Al Sadr, the Awakening and Iran.

Problem is, none of those local actors would have ACTED BUT FOR THE SURGE.

The fact that Obama still doesn't understand that is very troubling to his quality of judgment.

Obama even said in July that knowing what he knows now, he still wouldnt vote for the surge. Compare that comment to the interview on Fox and the quotes of his statements above.

He wouldnt vote for something that succeeded beyond anyone's wildest dreams, in his words? Pretty questionable judgment even in hindsight.

rhys - ...and McCain juiced those numbers too...Wh...

2008-09-04T18:15:00.000-04:00

rhys -

...and McCain juiced those numbers too...

Why not? Good PR. A free headline.