tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4257917002416684161.post5225261279687959099..comments2010-01-24T16:34:43.963-05:00Nate Silverhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08334852368748204318noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4257917002416684161.post-81406819100329383742009-02-11T00:15:00.000-05:002009-02-11T00:15:00.000-05:00<A HREF="http://toytoytoytoytoytoy.com/" REL="nofollow">情趣用品</A>,<A HREF="http://toytoytoytoytoytoy.com/front/bin/home.phtml" REL="nofollow">情趣用品</A>,<A HREF="http://toytoytoytoytoytoy.com/front/bin/ptlist.phtml?Category=258265" REL="nofollow">情趣用品</A>,<A HREF="http://toytoytoytoytoytoy.com/front/bin/ptlist.phtml?Category=300129/#q15" REL="nofollow">情趣用品</A>,<A HREF="http://toytoytoytoytoytoy.com/front/bin/ptlist.phtml?Category=258267" REL="nofollow">情趣用品</A>,<A HREF="http://toytoytoytoytoytoy.com/front/bin/forum.phtml?bbcode=" REL="nofollow">情趣用品</A>,<A HREF="http://toytoytoytoytoytoy.com/front/bin/ptlist.phtml?Category=258277" REL="nofollow">情趣用品</A>,<A HREF="http://78cf.com/" REL="nofollow">情趣用品</A>,<A HREF="http://78kb.com/" REL="nofollow">情趣用品</A>,<A HREF="http://78pl.com/" REL="nofollow">情趣用品</A>,<A HREF="http://78bk.com/" REL="nofollow">情趣用品</A>,<A HREF="http://omb1.com/" REL="nofollow">情趣用品</A>,<A HREF="http://6lv9.com/" REL="nofollow">情趣用品</A>,<A HREF="http://6lv6.com/" REL="nofollow">情趣用品</A>,<A HREF="http://6ea9.com/" REL="nofollow">情趣用品</A>,<A HREF="http://6ea6.com/" REL="nofollow">情趣用品</A>,<A HREF="http://6ck9.com/" REL="nofollow">情趣用品</A>,<A HREF="http://6ck6.com/" REL="nofollow">情趣用品</A>,<A HREF="http://0lv0.com/" REL="nofollow">情趣用品</A>,<A HREF="http://0ea0.com/" REL="nofollow">情趣用品</A>,<A HREF="http://0ck0.com/" REL="nofollow">情趣用品</A>,<A HREF="http://8bl8.com/" REL="nofollow">情趣用品</A>,<A HREF="http://8kb8.com/" REL="nofollow">情趣用品</A>,<A HREF="http://8bk8.com/" REL="nofollow">情趣用品</A>,<A HREF="http://8dl8.com/" REL="nofollow">情趣用品</A>,<A HREF="http://8ea8.com/" REL="nofollow">情趣用品</A>,<A HREF="http://8bv8.com/" REL="nofollow">情趣用品</A>,<A HREF="http://8ct8.com/" REL="nofollow">情趣用品</A>,<A HREF="http://8pr8.com/" REL="nofollow">情趣用品</A>,<A HREF="http://8dh8.com/" REL="nofollow">情趣用品</A>,<A HREF="http://8br8.com/" REL="nofollow">情趣用品</A>,<A HREF="http://7bl7.com/" REL="nofollow">情趣用品</A>,<A HREF="http://7kb7.com/" REL="nofollow">情趣用品</A>,<A HREF="http://7dl7.com/" REL="nofollow">情趣用品</A>,<A HREF="http://7lv7.com/" REL="nofollow">情趣用品</A>,<A HREF="http://7ea7.com/" REL="nofollow">情趣用品</A>,<A HREF="http://7bv7.com/" REL="nofollow">情趣用品</A>,<A HREF="http://7ct7.com/" REL="nofollow">情趣用品</A>,<A HREF="http://7ck7.com/" REL="nofollow">情趣用品</A>,<A HREF="http://7dh7.com/" REL="nofollow">情趣用品</A>,<A HREF="http://7br7.com/" REL="nofollow">情趣用品</A>,<A HREF="http://toytoytoytoytoytoy.com/" REL="nofollow">情趣</A>,<A HREF="http://toytoytoytoytoytoy.com/front/bin/home.phtml" REL="nofollow">情趣</A>,<A HREF="http://toytoytoytoytoytoy.com/front/bin/ptlist.phtml?Category=258265" REL="nofollow">情趣</A>,<A HREF="http://toytoytoytoytoytoy.com/front/bin/ptlist.phtml?Category=300129/#q15" REL="nofollow">情趣</A>,<A HREF="http://toytoytoytoytoytoy.com/front/bin/ptlist.phtml?Category=258267" REL="nofollow">情趣</A>,<A HREF="http://toytoytoytoytoytoy.com/front/bin/forum.phtml?bbcode=" REL="nofollow">情趣</A>,<A HREF="http://toytoytoytoytoytoy.com/front/bin/ptlist.phtml?Category=258277" REL="nofollow">情趣</A>,<A HREF="http://78cf.com/" REL="nofollow">情趣</A>,<A HREF="http://78kb.com/" REL="nofollow">情趣</A>,<A HREF="http://78pl.com/" REL="nofollow">情趣</A>,<A HREF="http://78bk.com/" REL="nofollow">情趣</A>,<A HREF="http://omb1.com/" REL="nofollow">情趣</A>,<A HREF="http://6lv9.com/" REL="nofollow">情趣</A>,<A HREF="http://6lv6.com/" REL="nofollow">情趣</A>,<A HREF="http://6ea9.com/" REL="nofollow">情趣</A>,<A HREF="http://6ea6.com/" REL="nofollow">情趣</A>,<A HREF="http://6ck9.com/" REL="nofollow">情趣</A>,<A HREF="http://6ck6.com/" REL="nofollow">情趣</A>,<A HREF="http://0lv0.com/" REL="nofollow">情趣</A>,<A HREF="http://0ea0.com/" REL="nofollow">情趣</A>,<A HREF=信次http://www.blogger.com/profile/02481689321253585436noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4257917002416684161.post-61109340627798792192008-05-20T20:42:09.769-04:002008-05-20T20:42:09.769-04:00Regarding the Oregon turnout comment - there are only 869,000 registered Dems as of the cut off on April 29th, so your absolute max is probably about 80-85% of that.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4257917002416684161.post-10906437407082925042008-05-20T18:49:11.436-04:002008-05-20T18:49:11.436-04:00Wait Poblano I think I see something here:<BR/><BR/>Remember I asked you how come Clinton's veer to the right did not help her in IN/NC, seeing that you expect it to help Obama in OR?<BR/>But actually we've got caught up in the spot-on nature of your IN prediction and missed the fact that you underpredicted North and overpredicted South. <BR/><BR/>The very early returns from KY may perhaps go in such a direction? Even worse in the rural, OK in the urban?<BR/><BR/>And can it be that if we go back to the recent states voting we see that more liberal counties were more Obama than predicted, less liberal were less Obama, and that this simply mostly canceled out in IN/NC?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4257917002416684161.post-23572942981542998992008-05-20T18:45:26.962-04:002008-05-20T18:45:26.962-04:00Watch the % for Ron Paul in Oregon, I think it could be around 20%Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4257917002416684161.post-12988578562018152232008-05-20T18:35:14.001-04:002008-05-20T18:35:14.001-04:00In the meantime the Oregonian says the turnout is going to top 1M.<BR/>Arguably I doubt much of this is for the Republican primary.<BR/>Good sign for BO ?Benhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12733045998459276672noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4257917002416684161.post-30620295727376232992008-05-20T18:27:09.696-04:002008-05-20T18:27:09.696-04:002 points better among W is 4 points better spread. Add the AA higher %age and you have roughly 15% better spread, i.e. 25+.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4257917002416684161.post-41963994119136477512008-05-20T18:12:32.621-04:002008-05-20T18:12:32.621-04:00Exit polls said 31% of Clinton supporters would support Obama whereas 71% of Obama supporters said they would support Clinton if the nominee..<BR/><BR/>W. Va and Kentucky show their true colors once again.<BR/><BR/>We can't win wars overseas until we win them here at home.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4257917002416684161.post-34256891480596352102008-05-20T18:11:12.721-04:002008-05-20T18:11:12.721-04:00As a way of comparison - in WV exit polls, Clinton carried 75% of white women and 63% of white men.<BR/><BR/>Those broke down to 51% and 45% of the WV electorate.<BR/><BR/>However, again, the big difference between WV and KY is the 8% of AA. what will the turnout be there and what will Obama's %age be there?The Dead Guyhttp://www.thedeadguy.com/noreply@blogger.com