Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Shock and Awe, Paid Organizer Version

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2009-10-08T07:29:29.544-04:00

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2009-03-11T22:01:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-11T22:01:00.000-04:00

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Suppose 20 million workers were able today to take...

2008-07-15T21:02:00.000-04:00

Suppose 20 million workers were able today to take their Social Security payroll taxes and invest them in the stock market, as Bush and McCain have proposed.

How much of a shortfall in Social Security would we see and how quickly would it come? Never mind "78% of benefits in 2041"; the shortfall would come far more quickly and far more dramatically.

NcCain has since "clarified" his remarks calling the very heart of Social Security a "disgrace," but I still think his original remarks are the more accurate. They reveal either the depths of his ignorance or the depths of his malice. Probably both.

Social Security, whether you like it or not, has kept millions of our elderly out of poverty. Some here want to imply that those people are simply stupid for not hoarding their money under a mattress somewhere. Maybe they are stupid; to some of the more "elitist" Republicans posting here, I'm sure working hard one's whole life, raising a family, and struggling to get by is "stupid."

It is unfortunate that not everyone can be born the son of an admiral and marry into money. It is beyond unfortunate that just such a man, who sucks yearly off the government teat, would then turn around and decry the "disgrace" of a program that helps the millions who are too stupid to join the Lucky Sperm Club.

This is perhaps more indicative of his character than any amount of military service, no matter how heroic.

But we all have our lot in life.

Re Fear MongeringChenney - 2004 - If you vote for ...

2008-07-15T19:21:00.000-04:00

Re Fear Mongering

Chenney - 2004 - If you vote for Kerry, you may wake up to find a mushroom cloud over an American city.

McCain's campaign chief advisor 2008- A terrorist attack would benefit McCain.

If you need to delude yourself that the GOP doesn't engage in fear mongering, that's up to you. But, don't expect the rest of us to be deaf, dumb and blind along with you.

However, I have to offer something the Republicans...

2008-07-15T19:15:00.000-04:00

However, I have to offer something the Republicans need to watch out for that Dems are starting to do more and more. Anytime there is a piece of negative news or pessimism surrounding anything in our society, particularly if it's something where the negativity might benefit Reps, the Dems accuse them of "fear-mongering." We hear it all the time now - "They're just using the politics of 'fear.'"

We hear it all the time because it's true all the time, cretin.

Okay, maybe there have been some embellishments on the part of Reps, but many times they have just been speaking the truth.

Name one, liar. OTOH, the right wingers accuse "libruls" of fear mongering over global warming, despite AGW being a well-established scientific truth.

Right wing/Republican == lying corrupt hypocrite ignoramus ... you can take that to the bank.

Obama worst presidential candidate ever said... As...

2008-07-15T19:11:00.000-04:00

Obama worst presidential candidate ever said... As a McCain supporter ...

And boy does it show; like all his supporters, ignorant and dumb as a doorknob.

I can present mounds of evidence suggesting that speculation is not a cause.

That's a mighty dumb thing to say after the price of oil just had its largest drop in 17 years, due entirely to speculation jitters.

I'm starting to see a trend here, and thanks to co...

2008-07-15T16:41:00.000-04:00

I'm starting to see a trend here, and thanks to counsellorben for being my test subject.

Democrats have finally picked up on something of late and are starting to fight back. For the longest time, the Republicans have consistently labelled Democrats as tax-and-spend and/or always wanting to raise taxes no matter what. Sometimes this has been true, while many others it has not. Anyway, the Dems are finally starting to fight back and defend themselves and point out that just because its Republican mantra, it doesn't mean it's exactly true.

However, I have to offer something the Republicans need to watch out for that Dems are starting to do more and more. Anytime there is a piece of negative news or pessimism surrounding anything in our society, particularly if it's something where the negativity might benefit Reps, the Dems accuse them of "fear-mongering." We hear it all the time now - "They're just using the politics of 'fear.'" Okay, maybe there have been some embellishments on the part of Reps, but many times they have just been speaking the truth. Yet all they get from the other side is a blind accusation of fear-mongering.

I'm sure counsellorben uses that excuse for just about any conservative ideal that runs contrary to his opinions.

counsellorben,For some people, paying out only 78 ...

2008-07-15T16:27:00.001-04:00

counsellorben,

For some people, paying out only 78 percent of scheduled benefits, especially those who rely on it and it's barely enough, think that might be a "financial disaster."

And "tweaking" it the way Barack Obama is expected to will only exacerbate the issue.

You only cite one source of those who stake an argument about the survival of SS down the road. I've seen other sources not as positive. Anybody can cherry-pick one source that's rosy towards their opinion.

It doesn't matter anyway because I'm socking away 20% of my own salary towards retirement. So Barack Obama can tweak it all he wants for all the "mainstream" people who want a handout and don't want to plan for their future.

I never heard your opinion on oil speculation, counsellorben. You're so condescending in telling me to get informed, but I want to know where you stand on that issue. Come on. Don't hide.

counsellorben made the point that SS is notheaded ...

2008-07-15T16:27:00.000-04:00

counsellorben made the point that SS is notheaded for a financial disaster, calling it "baseless fear mongering". And asserting: "Check out this report for a good understanding of the issues. The "crisis" is that, without any changes, it is projected that Social Security will only be able to pay out 78% of scheduled benefits in 2041."

Seems like we have other pressing issues.

The why is OPbama so anxious to raise payroll taxes on familes with household incomes over $200,000? And examining applying that tax to all sorts of income, not just wages?

Mmmmm . . . could it be fairness?

He had better watch out: that net will trap a lot of people in NY, NY and CA!

Here's a suggestion to everyone who keeps posting ...

2008-07-15T16:22:00.000-04:00

Here's a suggestion to everyone who keeps posting back-and-forth:

Get off the computer and go organize out in the real world. You're not going to win over (or register) any new voters via e-debates on obscure websites frequented by political junkies.

Anonymous @1:45pYou are absolutely right that the ...

2008-07-15T16:05:00.000-04:00

Anonymous @1:45p

You are absolutely right that the SC poll represents more confirmation for Nate's model.

I was commenting on lompe's tying the current poll to the final Bush/Kerry results, since there is no basis for logical comparison between a June 2008 poll and the final 2004 results.

Anonymous @1:43p said "Isn't SS proven to be heade...

2008-07-15T16:02:00.000-04:00

Anonymous @1:43p said "Isn't SS proven to be headed for a financial disaster in the next 15-50 years if something isn't done right now?"

No, that is the baseless fear mongering. Check out this report for a good understanding of the issues. The "crisis" is that, without any changes, it is projected that Social Security will only be able to pay out 78% of scheduled benefits in 2041.

So we are 33 years from a benefit reduction, if nothing is done. Modest changes in funding, retirement age or benefits will address this manufactured "crisis."

You also accuse me of spin, which shows you could not be bothered to read my post. "Mainstream opinion" as reflected by polling in 2005 (you can find some poll results here and here) was against Bush's proposals.

The Republican led Congress did not even bother bringing Bush's proposals to the House or Senate floors for a vote. Another fact. Since the Republicans were in charge of the House and Senate, why didn't they bring Bush's proposals to either floor for a vote?

You call my arguments "spin" solely because you disagree.

Get informed.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the "organizing fello...

2008-07-15T15:46:00.000-04:00

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the "organizing fellows" are just that-- people organizing the local volunteers. The local volunteers are the people doing the actual talking-to-local-people-they-know deal, not the paid organizers.

Meanwhile, back to the topic of the post. Isn't t...

2008-07-15T15:38:00.000-04:00

Meanwhile, back to the topic of the post. Isn't this the same conventional wisdom that we heard before the 2004 election? Namely, that Kerry's (really, Soros') paid armies of poll workers and door knockers would deliver a GOTV effort like no other? And, of course, that conventional wisdom was tured on its head after the election once the numbers came in showing that the GOP GOTV effort was much more effective because it used 1) volunteers who were passinate about their candidate who 2) knew the people that they were getting to the polls.

Paid "stranger" Dem GOTV workers weren't as successful as unpaid volunteer "known" GOP GOTV workers were in 2004.

True, the CW isn't always right, and true, Obama is certainly the favorite, and true, I fully expect the GOP GOTV effort to suffer because of a lack of enthusiasm for McCain, but. . .

it seems a stretch to laud Obama's use of the same methods that failed Kerry.

Anon in MO

This is anecdotal, but I worked the primaries for ...

2008-07-15T15:33:00.000-04:00

This is anecdotal, but I worked the primaries for Obama in Pa the borough I canvassed was a high democrat/low performing area. We made it perform quite well. The second wave Obama are here to increase registration. I whined about cost effectiveness since we worked it so hard in the spring. We are less than half way through the drive and have added eight hundred new voters. I honestly didn't think we could scrape two hundred together.
Talk trash all you want but ask McCains people if they can turn out eight hundred new voters with 14 volunteers.

DiggsBYou're right. If only Pete Kent could share ...

2008-07-15T14:53:00.000-04:00

DiggsB
You're right. If only Pete Kent could share his enthusiasm with the rest of the McCain world (...instead of here....?), McCain could have a fighting chance. haha...

Counsellorben: I don't think you're quite right ab...

2008-07-15T14:45:00.000-04:00

Counsellorben: I don't think you're quite right about the significance of PPP SC. It is a data point that confirms the validity, today, of Nate' models for the South Coast. That's useful to know, as we didn't have VA and NC polled through the recent dip, or pseudo-dip.

counsellorben,All I said was SS was a disgrace...I...

2008-07-15T14:43:00.000-04:00

counsellorben,

All I said was SS was a disgrace...I didn't try and entangle myself in the politics of addressing it and why who was supporting what when because they were trying to get elected. And actually I do think the mainstream thinks SS is flawed. I don't know what "mainstream" you refer to that think it's okay.

In any event, the "mainstream" isn't always right. I bet you're part of the "mainstream" that think rampant speculation as opposed to supply/demand factors are driving up energy prices unnecessarily. You probably think it is a big behind-the-scenes conspiracy. I don't know the numbers, but I think more than half the country are blaming it on those factors. They're wrong, and if you agree, you are wrong as well. I can present mounds of evidence suggesting that speculation is not a cause.

So don't go making a point on "mainstream opinion." Aren't you the one who always demands fact-based arguments.

Isn't SS proven to be headed for a financial disaster in the next 15-50 years if something isn't done right now?

Give me a break, and give me some facts. You want facts when it's convenient to make your point, and you want to spin and use hyperbole when that's convenient.

Obama's campaign is mining a resource that McCain ...

2008-07-15T14:39:00.000-04:00

Obama's campaign is mining a resource that McCain simply doesn't have available to him: the enthusiasm of their supporters.

lompe,Regarding the SC poll, the only July 2004 po...

2008-07-15T14:27:00.000-04:00

lompe,

Regarding the SC poll, the only July 2004 poll in SC, found here, was SUSA, showing Bush +7.

We cannot draw anything positive (or negative) from this single poll, showing McCain +6. It is consistent with the current trend-adjusted polling for SC. SC will go for McCain, other than in a total Obama landslide.

Please don't force me to do these posts. I do not want to be seen as a fellow traveler with Pete Kent.