Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: The NASCAR Dad of 2008? It Might be The Perot Vot...

There must be a cabbie exchange program(me) going ...

2008-08-27T13:45:00.000-04:00

There must be a cabbie exchange program(me) going on. Here in London all the taxi drivers have started talking like dudes off Da Bears sketch.

For what it's worth NASCAR dads were thoroughly de...

2008-08-27T12:16:00.000-04:00

For what it's worth NASCAR dads were thoroughly debunked. See Gary Langer's work on this question. Married women esp. those without kids were key to Bush's win.

As Obama loses traction he is moving to the center...

2008-08-27T11:44:00.000-04:00

As Obama loses traction he is moving to the center and compromising. He needs to stop and stand up for what he believes. Modifying the message is losing votes.

Your cabbie's comments match up pretty well with w...

2008-08-27T10:54:00.000-04:00

Your cabbie's comments match up pretty well with what I'm hearing from a lot of "independent" voters. They are all pretty well turned off by McCain, are intrigued by Obama, but he hasn't "sealed it" yet.

Some of these people are true independents and are truly open. For them, the debates may be very important, as a strong performance by Obama will reassure them and get their vote.

There is another breed of independents as well, though, in my admittedly anecdotal experience. These voters, as a point of pride, simply refuse to choose a candidate this early as a point of pride. When discussing politics, they preface the conversation with the phrase, "I'm a true independent." I think a lot of these people have already chosen, but just don't want to admit it (perhaps even to themselves).

Regarding the Republic Convention next week. What...

2008-08-27T09:39:00.000-04:00

Regarding the Republic Convention next week. What if, God forbid, the hurricane currently in Haiti is bearing down on the Gulf Coast next Monday, and turns into a Category 3-4 storm? Based on Katrina, certainly, the Republics won't be able to competently deal with the hurricane damage/catastrophe, because they're a bunch of incompetent bluebloods; and the Republics will look like a bunch of out-of-touch d-bags if they're all giddy and celebrating during their convention in Minneapolis. Pete Kent-- please explain how McCain can overcome this?

Perot opposed the '91 Gulf War. This was a huge p...

2008-08-27T09:31:00.000-04:00

Perot opposed the '91 Gulf War. This was a huge positive for many of us. He was the only one of the three candidates in November to oppose it. He got a ton of votes because of this. This has to be part of the Perot conversation.

P.S. I voted for Clinton in '92 and '96.

Dear Nate:Now that your talking to cabbies, you've...

2008-08-27T09:20:00.000-04:00

Dear Nate:

Now that your talking to cabbies, you've obviously firmly arrived as a player in the political game.

Good for you.

Bear with me. I have a half-decent point to make, ...

2008-08-27T01:52:00.000-04:00

Bear with me. I have a half-decent point to make, since we're going down Perot Lane.

I voted Perot in 92, Powell in 96 just for shits and giggles, Nader in 2000 (thank goodness I'm not from Florida), Kerry in 04 and certainly for Obama this time around.

My voting pattern might be unique but there are millions more like me... this thread has convinced me that the Perotistas from 92 will break HEAVILY for Obama.

People like me are underpolled because we show up to vote when we have a statement to make. We're motivated this time around.

Which got me thinkin'...

Recipe for unexpected Obama landslide:

Begin with millions of people like me;

Add significantly increased black turnout;

Throw in a dash of last-minute deciders' dissatisfaction with the Republican brand;

Pepper with two spices: enthusiasm and GOTV, both clearly on the Dems' side;

Bake until Nov. 4 and voila!

The thing is, none of those five ingredients will show up in the polls. So color me Pollyanna, but Obama is already up 8-12 points nationally in my personal calculations, and EV-wise, it won't even be close, Obama 330 or more, easy.

Oh Lord, here she comes. I'm nervous.

2008-08-26T22:45:00.000-04:00

Oh Lord, here she comes. I'm nervous.

Hm. I think we can probably quantify this effect t...

2008-08-26T22:44:00.000-04:00

Hm. I think we can probably quantify this effect to an extent, by looking for a correlation between the percentage of Perot voters in '92 and the "swinginess" of a state's polling. I'll see what I can do...

"Perot’s name still has a lot of currency among ce...

2008-08-26T22:36:00.000-04:00

"Perot’s name still has a lot of currency among certain voters, especially here out West."

Is that confined to a certain part of the West? Because I haven't really heard much about Perot in Oregon, really since 1996 or so. Even references to his comedic aspects don't seem to be common. Let alone some type of deep-rooted nostalgia for the Ross Perot vision, which I couldn't even rightly say what it was.

So yes, I think sample sizes of one are not good.

Holy crap. And now Schweitzer. Four serious futu...

2008-08-26T22:24:00.000-04:00

Holy crap. And now Schweitzer.

Four serious future presidental candidates in a row. Hillary will make 5. Son of a bitch, we've got some good ones coming up.

I just hope we have to wait until 2016 to see them in action.

Hmmmm...Warner, Strikland, and Patrick. All three...

2008-08-26T22:13:00.000-04:00

Hmmmm...Warner, Strikland, and Patrick. All three seem to be definite presidential material in 2012/2016.

At least they all know how to talk, unlike Sebelius.

"...a lot of cabbies who spoke the King's English....

2008-08-26T22:05:00.000-04:00

"...a lot of cabbies who spoke the King's English."

Am I to infer that taxi drivers are using British Received Pronunciation now?

That would be shocking.

Have you gotten the feeling you have lost yet, and...

2008-08-26T21:47:00.000-04:00

Have you gotten the feeling you have lost yet, and that it’s only a matter of the plaster hardening?

You have not even come together as a party. You have not had to endure a week of the Republican Convention and its focus on the twin themes of Radical Islam and Taxes.

Our convention will be about our issues and Barack. Yours is about yourselves.

I don’t believe that part of the poll about people favoring Obama’s tax plan. I wonder how many of the majority who thinks Obama will raise taxes, support him.

After the Republican Convention we have the anniversary of 9-11. The debates will follow in two weeks.

I think once Obama is fully branded as a naïf on international affairs (Biden the record will show is not much better), and reckless and dangerous on the economy with those quasi-Socialist views and “fairness” perspective on tax policy, those Clinton dems will start bolting the party.

What good will unity do you then?

What you will witness are what happens when the election turns out like those peaks at the leftward most third of the electoral vote dispersion.

Given the dispirited convention you are having, a McCain landslide is more and more plausible.

There is life left in the Rat Pack!

tomthress: Thanks for the link. It's an interestin...

2008-08-26T21:42:00.000-04:00

tomthress: Thanks for the link. It's an interesting document.

There's one nugget hidden in there that can change the figures. McCain is proposing a new "optional" individual income tax system. It's a sort of flatter tax. But the idea is you can choose to use either system. The campaign then assumes this is revenue neutral, and the document you linked to goes with that for their total.

They then note, though, that in reality people would not blindly choose one system or another. Each taxpayer would tend to choose the system that meant less taxes for them (duh). If that happens, the system is no longer revenue neutral; a footnote estimates the cost at $115 billion,

Gotta go over to watch Hill's speech at mom's hous...

2008-08-26T21:38:00.001-04:00

Gotta go over to watch Hill's speech at mom's house. She is my 'focus group'.

But before I go I wanted to give props to everyone on this thread tonight.

It seems so....[how shall I say] civil & [dare I say] reasonable adult behaviour ?

I certainly appreciate it for a change. THANKS !

ciao 4 now

Republican conventions are much more exciting.

2008-08-26T21:38:00.000-04:00

Republican conventions are much more exciting.

If you want the Perot vote nowadays, Perot isn't t...

2008-08-26T21:37:00.001-04:00

If you want the Perot vote nowadays, Perot isn't the guy who is going to deliver it to you. His nutbar antics (and Al Gore - my god that was one hell of a smackdown - my favourite part was when Gore smiled and used Perot's "let me finish" on Perot) have destroyed his credibility. Moreover, somebody who was 18 in 1992, barely able to vote legally, would be 34 this year. So a fair percentage of the kind of voters that Perot's message would appeal to have never heard of the guy.

Unfortunately Lou Dobbs is the contemporary water carrier for Perot's protectionist message, which Dobbs has expanded into a generally anti-Mexican theme.

I also have to ask - are American conventions normally this boring? Canadian conventions are usually contested because we don't have staggered delegate elections (and the candidates are usually more regional - you get more "favourite son" candidates). I really hope things keep moving towards a national primary.

That's assuming Dems ever GET any power.

2008-08-26T21:37:00.000-04:00

That's assuming Dems ever GET any power.

ROFL = not to worry about Dem abuse of total power...

2008-08-26T21:36:00.000-04:00

ROFL = not to worry about Dem abuse of total power. Two years from now we have the opportunity to flip House and Senate, if necessary.

It happened to Clinton. It happened to GWB, although a few years too late.

Colbert would be a breath of fresh sarcastic air f...

2008-08-26T21:34:00.000-04:00

Colbert would be a breath of fresh sarcastic air for sure, but he is better suited to the GOPer party next week.

Maybe Ron Paul will let him in the counter-convention in Mpls next week ?

dcm,Yeah, just watching him makes me wish Colbert ...

2008-08-26T21:33:00.000-04:00

dcm,

Yeah, just watching him makes me wish Colbert was here (or at the Republican Convention) just for his ability to manipulate a crowd masterfully.

Of course, he wouldn't get a pliant crowd at the conventions like he gets with his show, but still.

heheon MSNBC Chris M. & Keith O. both just admired...

2008-08-26T21:32:00.000-04:00

hehe

on MSNBC Chris M. & Keith O. both just admired those Casey speech taglines...

Bob Casey, you're no Zell Miller.

2008-08-26T21:31:00.000-04:00

Bob Casey, you're no Zell Miller.