Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Franken's Odds of Winning Recount May Be Long -- o...

The survey found that consumer 3G wholesale china ...

2009-10-14T04:23:53.078-04:00

The survey found that consumer 3G wholesale china from the crowd of view, the buyer 25 to 40 years old mainly white-collar workers, accounting for about 40%, followed by consumer groups of students, accounting for about three into. According to statistics, 3G wholesale products in sales, compared with a 2G mobile phone sales are still a wide gap between, but since June has been, 3G mobile phones increase in the average monthly buy products for more than 50%, "11" period due to holiday business, the increase of more than 150%. Pk that the "11" after the peak sales of 3G handsets likely to usher in more stable growth.

From cell phones users to see the specific situati...

2009-10-14T04:23:19.594-04:00

From cell phones users to see the specific situation of occupational segmentation in 2009, accounting for 19.5% of students dropped 21.2 percent over last year, other types of occupations than those last year, the proportion of Internet users cheap cell phones increase. White collar crowd from last year's 29.2% increase to 38.9% this year, accounting for 9.7 percentage points up to replace the student groups cellphone users as one of the biggest occupational hierarchy; blue-collar crowd from last year's 13.9% to 18.9% this year, accounting for rose by 5.0 percentage points, showing that mobile phones users by a group of students to the occupational groups a significant trend in the development. Ereli advice that, cheap cell phones and mobile phone users Internet users monthly income distribution of age, education, occupational distribution has strong correlation with high spending capacity of white-collar workers and some students in the crowd will be a huge cell phone china online potential consumer groups.

By comparing the traditional Internet users, Inter...

2009-10-14T04:22:47.019-04:00

By comparing the traditional Internet users, Internet users to iResearch found that the traditional white-collar-based, cell phones wholesale, corporate general staff accounted for 18.9%, higher than the 5.6% of the wholesale cell phones users accounting; and discount cell phones users in the years students and blue-collar workers accounted for significantly more than the traditional Internet users, respectively, accounting for 19.5% and 18.9%, higher than the traditional Internet users Students and blue-collar workers accounted for 7.8% and 5.1% respectively.

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2009-04-16T05:01:00.000-04:00

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Wow, what an impressive analysis! However it does ...

2009-02-03T18:47:00.000-05:00

Wow, what an impressive analysis! However it does demonstrate why some people call the field of statistics "sadistics" instead.

Several ways to interpret the results, but I hope Franken wins given the House vote on the Recovery Act last week.

I am not hopeful that we'll see any GOP help in solving the nation's mess they got us into.

If the scanners beeped for undervotes, they'd be b...

2008-11-18T09:56:00.000-05:00

If the scanners beeped for undervotes, they'd be beeping all the frickin' time; there's a whole scad of downballot races -- including downballot uncontested races, where there's only a named candidate and a write-in line -- and just about nobody I know bothers to vote for Ole Ericson vs. Write-in for Second Assistant Third District Water Commissioner and such.

I'll be stunned if there's a consistent pattern to the what I'm going to call, since I like making up acronyms, just like our host, the PRUBUV -- the Possibly Relevant Up Ballot Under Vote -- where, say, somebody votes for Obama or McCain by filling in the circle, but votes for Franken or Coleman by checking the box or circling the name. With, probably, 6000 rejected ballots, some of those will be CSUBM (Consistently Screwed Up Ballot Marking) problems, where some moron who couldn't read the directions consistently circled their candidate, at all levels, rather than filling in the bubble.

Those votes will -- and by MN law, must -- be counted, and there's where the Franken supporters do have their best chance of pulling this out: VSPWCRSDs (Very Stupid People Who Can't Read Simple Directions) are more likely to vote for Franken than for Coleman.

So, y'all may win this. Honestly.

So, in other words, things look better for Franken...

2008-11-12T21:50:00.000-05:00

So, in other words, things look better for Franken, which I would have expected for my candidate for Senator here in Minnesota. This is a progressive state. That Coleman "won" over Mondale after Wellstone was killed in 2002 was HIGHLY suspect. Coleman is a Rove hand-picked puppet as is Governor Pawlenty and Michelle Bachmann. These people don't "fit in" with Minnesota's profile of politicians. My hunch? The machines were programmed by ES&S for Coleman to "win" and that is why the GOP is so frantic to cast suspicion or stop the process. Our Secretary of State Mark Ritchie is an honest politician and I worked on his campaign for election myself in order to rid our state of a highly partisan GOP hack, former SOS Mary Kiffmeyer. I trust that Ritchie will conduct this recount fairly. I just want to know if the machines are counting our votes accurately or not and this recount will be a good test of that. The ES&S 100 optiscans used here have a history of problems (most recently in Michigan) and they are the very machines that were demonstrated to be so easily undetectably reprogrammed via the memory cards by Finnish expert Harri Hursti in Florida in Bev Harris's "Hacking Democracy" documentary. I pray that our chain of custody laws are being tightly followed around handling and storing the ballots and the memory cards and flash cards; that we are ensuring the security of the Microsoft Access-based GEMS databases that register the totals and are so easily hacked; and that our electronic voter registration databases have been safeguarded so that they have not been in any way compromised. I and other election integrity activists in this state worked extensively with the SOS and the state legislature on revising our election laws, as well as the new auditing/recount laws that are now being put to the test. It is my opinion that the SOS and the legislature did not take the vulnerability of Republican-owned and operated electronic machines into full account, although Ritchie says he is a friend of Mark Crispin Miller and I and others have personally badgered him about the insecurity of voting on ES&S and Diebold machines. I know that Minnesota elected Al Franken. We are sick of Norm Coleman--he is a crook and was never a popular mayor let alone senator.

Nate, I generally agree with your analysis. Howeve...

2008-11-12T02:12:00.000-05:00

Nate, I generally agree with your analysis. However, I would come down on the side that Franken's chances of winning a recount are not minuscule. However, I don't know enough about the details of Minnesota's voting procedures to predict confidently.

You address most of the sources of uncertainty I can think of. The most important is almost certainly the level of experience with voting in Minnesota with Franken voters vs. Coleman voters. Franken voters are probably less experienced voters on average, so a recount is more likely to move towards Franken than towards Coleman.

One variable you didn't consider is differences in election practice between precincts favoring Coleman vs. precincts favoring Franken. Franken's votes disproportionately come from urban areas, where there are large, busy polling places. Coleman's votes disproportionately the reverse, of course. I've observed that, in some recounts of marksense (bubble) paper ballots, urban counties tend to proportionately gain more votes than rural counties. It may be that this is due to different experience levels in voters, but it may also be caused by a different voting environment. A busy, urban polling place may lead to a slightly higher machine error rate, due to more distractions, longer waits and difficulties in parking leading to time pressure on the voter, and so on. In an election this close, even slight differences in these effects can result in vote total changes much larger than the difference between the candidates.

Of course, the consensus is this will end up in court, but it seems likely to me that the candidate leading after the hand recount is likely to prevail in court.

Incidentally, recounts of this type are very substantial undertakings. Often, a warehouse of some kind has to be rented just to keep everything organized, allow observers adequate room, and so on.

Precinct pre-scan is generally never set up to cat...

2008-11-12T01:53:00.000-05:00

Precinct pre-scan is generally never set up to catch undervotes. That is, the voter does not get their ballot kicked back at them for not voting a contest. This is for two reasons:
1. In the US, it is generally allowed to not vote on a contest. So an undervote is legitimate.
2. Even if undervotes were flagged as a warning, it would slow down the pre-scan function and affect the orderly operation of the polling place.

Nate,Not to nitpick, but I think you mean probabil...

2008-11-11T17:44:00.000-05:00

Nate,
Not to nitpick, but I think you mean probability instead of odds for all these tables and the title of your piece......under binomial odds would p/(1-p)

Regardless, very insightful analysis .......Can I have job as your assistant? I love baseball, politics, and stats too.....jk. Keep up the good work! Your doing some pretty cool stuff here.

The CER in Minnesota might be lower than is though...

2008-11-11T12:38:00.000-05:00

The CER in Minnesota might be lower than is thought otherwise, given the opportunity to correct a flawed ballot offered by the voting machine itself. The machines used in Minnesota automatically check for over- and under-votes and ask the voter to either verify that his ballot is accurate or try again on a fresh piece of paper.

Of course, it's hard to make anything idiot-proof, given that idiots are so resourceful.

Autumn hues lingerBrilliant yellow glows to showAl...

2008-11-11T10:20:00.000-05:00

Autumn hues linger
Brilliant yellow glows to show
All the known unknowns

OK. Last comment, putting it all together.We have ...

2008-11-11T07:34:00.000-05:00

OK. Last comment, putting it all together.

We have reason to believe (presidential undervotes) that the superficial undervote rate is around 9,000. We have reason to believe (Hennepin county disqualified absentees) that the disqualified absentee rate statewide is around 2,000. We have reason to believe (2006 audit reclassified 53 votes of 94,073 in the 2006 senate race) that there are about 1,500 ballots that have been miscounted. This puts an absolute ceiling of about 12,500 reclassifiable votes, a CER of about .4%. Honestly, it is probably significantly lower.

To win under these conditions, Franken needs to take at least 51%, probably more like 52% of these votes, and to score a safe win he needs 53 or 54%. These latter numbers begin to stretch credulity; thus, by all accounts, Coleman has at least real chance, and quite possibly the better chance.

It's "an entire matrix's," not "and entire matrice...

2008-11-11T00:11:00.000-05:00

It's "an entire matrix's," not "and entire matrices'." Sheesh, what kind of a math dork are you?

we had a ton of judges, many running unopposed in ...

2008-11-10T23:45:00.000-05:00

we had a ton of judges, many running unopposed in MN. I cna't imagine anyone voting for all of the races. So the warning for an undervote HAD to be shut off nearly everywhere.

Congrats on your write-up in the NYT

2008-11-10T21:36:00.000-05:00

Congrats on your write-up in the NYT

cshawngreen - good find with the exit poll. If 18-...

2008-11-10T21:15:00.000-05:00

cshawngreen - good find with the exit poll. If 18-29 is 12%, then 18-22 (first eligible presidential election) is around 4%. This age group goes 35-48 for Franken. First time voters are 9% and 34-52. If 18-22 is like 18-29, then the 5% who are older first-time voters are splitting about 33-55 for Franken; two-way, that's 38-62. If these are 3 times as likely as other voters to correctibly misvote, then they are 14% of misvotes, or 9% extra who are not cancelled out by everyone else, 7.5% without Barkley. 7.5% of the 25-point margin they have is just under 2 points of margin, or 51/49. Say, per Nate, that minority margin is also two points, low-income is also two point, and in the 6 points there are 2 of overlap: 4 point margin.

Again, PERFECT TIE +/- 100.

Well done.Possessive form of matrix singular: matr...

2008-11-10T21:12:00.000-05:00

Well done.

Possessive form of matrix singular: matrix's
Possessive form of matrix plural: matrices' or matrixes'-- both are fine

You must have just accidentally mixed up the differences between than and then

Hennepin county just refused a Franken request to ...

2008-11-10T20:54:00.000-05:00

Hennepin county just refused a Franken request to review 460 disqualified absentee ballots, saying they could be dealt with in the recount. This is a new number to throw into the mix. If there are 460 in Hennepin, and such ballots are evenly distributed, that would indicate about 2000 statewide. I'd suspect somewhere around 75% end up being valid, and of course there's the Barkley ones. So that is over 1000 more votes. If they are biased, it is probably on a different pattern than the machine rejects; lets assume that they are unbiased but slightly correlated, so that the stdev on these guys is 60. Combined with the stdev of 80 or so on the 6400 misvoted ballots (that's a guess based on 8900 presidential undervotes) that puts the stdev up to 100 votes total: a 5% chance for Franken before counting bias.

Increasing the variance is good news for... people who don't waste their time trying to read these particular tea leaves, because it pushes the probability towards 50% anyway.

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Franken's Odds of Winning Recount May Be Long -- o...

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Wow, what an impressive analysis! However it does ...

If the scanners beeped for undervotes, they'd be b...

So, in other words, things look better for Franken...

Nate, I generally agree with your analysis. Howeve...

Precinct pre-scan is generally never set up to cat...

Nate,Not to nitpick, but I think you mean probabil...

The CER in Minnesota might be lower than is though...

Autumn hues lingerBrilliant yellow glows to showAl...

OK. Last comment, putting it all together.We have ...

It's "an entire matrix's," not "and entire matrice...

we had a ton of judges, many running unopposed in ...

Congrats on your write-up in the NYT

cshawngreen - good find with the exit poll. If 18-...

Well done.Possessive form of matrix singular: matr...

Hennepin county just refused a Franken request to ...

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