Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Today's Polls, 7/15

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2009-10-08T07:26:44.306-04:00

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2009-09-11T02:20:22.112-04:00

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2009-02-14T01:55:00.000-05:00

Jim S. looks prescient, as he said "I know you wil...

2008-07-17T10:22:00.000-04:00

Jim S. looks prescient, as he said "I know you will claim none of this is racist, but just saying something a thousand times real loud does not make it true."

On likely voters:Does anybody understand why almos...

2008-07-17T09:45:00.000-04:00

On likely voters:
Does anybody understand why almost all pollsters use all-or-nothing LV screens, rather than probabilistic weighting? Except for pollsters who don't bother to ask the 'who' question of non-LV's, this makes no sense. Dropping anybody who has some probability of voting increases the statistical error bars. It also ignores information that will enter into the election outcome, i.e. votes from the pool of less-likely voters. Setting the probabilities of all who make the cutoff equal very slightly reduces the nominal statistical error- but dishonestly, since the probabilities are not quite equal.

Is there some historical reason for what appears to be a highly irrational technique?

Thanks, Jim. I really enjoyed re-reading my color...

2008-07-17T09:40:00.000-04:00

Thanks, Jim. I really enjoyed re-reading my colorful and insightful prose.

You try and equate my discussion of race as racism and simply does not wash.

Again, I suppose only Obama can bring up the topic and discuss it -- the rest of us must stand mute in awed silence I suppose.

Virtually all of your commentary is grounded in some silly notions of political correctness.

I am not here to defend or correct the sins of racism. If I were here to preach I would spend my time decrying the moral horror that is abortion and the genocide that it has visited upon the the AA community all in the name of "choice". Now there is a Holocaust for you.

Obama and his campaign constantly bring up race in order to deflect criticism. He did it the week of July 4th by talking about his candidacy in the third person. Perhaps you missed his comment: "Oh and by the way he is a black man."

Nothing I said was racist at all. it was a political-sociological discussion. Your hyper sensitivity should not disuade any of us from discussing the most historic aspect of Obama's candidacy and learning from it.

JC Watts 2016!

Thanks Jim S. That needed to be said.SInce this i...

2008-07-17T00:29:00.000-04:00

Thanks Jim S. That needed to be said.

SInce this is a post about polls...

There is a new Rasmussen poll in the Oregon Senate race; the first one to show a tie. They had Franken up by 2 in MN the other day too (though SUSA had Coleman by 13 the same day).

Ok, Pete. I was attempting to ignore you for the g...

2008-07-16T18:13:00.000-04:00

Ok, Pete. I was attempting to ignore you for the good of the site (because it's the only way to make it stop), but ask twice and you shall receive. I know you will claim none of this is racist, but just saying something a thousand times real loud does not make it true. Pete Kent quotes in italics.

It should surprise no one that an inexperienced left of center African American of Muslim extraction is being challenged in the polls by a genuine American war hero who is widely hailed as both a moderate and a maverick.

Descriptors used for the black guy here "inexperienced" "of Muslim extraction" (not saying this to bait people who might fear that fact, are you?) vs. descriptors used for the white guy here "genuine" "war hero" who is "widely hailed".

There are two concerns about Obama: (1) he is inexperienced and cannot lead in a crisis and (2) he is too exotic and different from the people he is seeking votes from.

It is hard to see how he overcomes either of these easily.

If you identify him being "too exotic and different from the people" as being a concern with the electorate and fail to point out how this viewpoint itself is racist, then base your argument off that stance... racist. Incidentally, you believe this point so strongly that you posted it identically in two locations. I understand cutting and pasting to avoid having to retype things, but you clearly must believe this one if you said it more than once.

You might as well argue that Obama is a bi-sexual crack user.

I'm sure you just picked crack as a random drug here...

As it is now, I think that he is a very gifted orator with a great deal of native intelligence, but he is out of his depth and is beginning to show signs of wear, of cracking even.

Would someone have said Kennedy is "out of his depth?" Native intelligence?

It would not have been there unless it spoke to an unconscious level of mistrust about the Obamas. Again, we simply do know who they are. And they have not revealed themselves.

While we have their words of assurance (more from him than from her), their past associations (which need not be detailed here) suggest a plausibility to the accusations that somehow they are not patriotic enough, not American enough, not opposed to our enemies enough to satisfy the concerns of a segment of the population out there.

I am one of those skeptics. While I do not really believe that Obama is an agent of Muslim forces, he has yet to define his peculiar brand of patriotism to me and I am not sure if he would truly put American interests first. My suspicion is that he is some sort of globalist out to advance the interest of the entire world.

Basically they're un-American because they're black here... same old, same old. You are talented at covering yourself from admitting you believe this stuff by saying things like "the concerns of a segment of the population out there," but by lending credence to racist ideas, you are supporting them yourself.

The American people are by and large not racist and this election will not be fought over the hearts and minds of such benighted fools as they.

However, the great mass of people want a President of the United States of America and what is emerging about Obama's campaign is that everything about him and it, and presumably his administration is being seen through the prism of race.

I do not think even Black people enjoy all this attention being placed on racial identity. It is constant and it is a distraction from issues.

Instead of laughing and shrugging off the silly stereotype of them on the New Yorker cover, the Obama’s contributed to the firestorm and added more gasoline to the fire, further assuring that his is a candidacy firmly rooted in his racial identity.

With so much that the next President has to face, he can ill-afford to be distracted by constant race baiting, whether by his own campaign/administration or those who would attack it.

I think the election was lost for Obama last night, as it became clear to me how wearying all this racial discussion and politics are.

Many, many people, including those who might be inclined to vote for Obama in the abstract will shun his candidacy because he brings with him a lot of baggage.

That he cannot help it, does not excuse it.

To imply that the Obama campaign has done anything but try to avoid discussion of race is borderline insane. Your pace really picks up here.

It is becoming clearer by the day that Obama will bring a hyper level of race consciousness to the national scene, the likes of which we have never witnessed.

Unsubstantiated claim based around race and how Obama's race will be a problem if he becomes President.

As far as the race baiting goes. It is true that it is Obama and his folks bring it up constantly. They began this in the primary in SC and have never looked back. Their miscalculation will become manifest when it is revealed that America does not want a Black President. It simply wants a President.

Far from ushering in a post-racial era in our politics Obama is now intent on creating the first racial era. Dangerous ground, and if this drum beat keeps up will it will make the flip flopping seem like a foreshock to an earthquake that will shatter the foundation of his candidacy.

Ditto.

The man's very idenity has become a huge distraction and he has become "the Black candidate". He cannot get elected from that perspective.

Who painted him into that corner is largely irrevevant, although I think he must bear some of the blame.

This one's a good one, because you say here it's irrelevant who paints him as "the Black candidate." Well... since it is his opponents trying to use it to gain votes, I believe it's relevant. You see the relevance yourself, obviously, or your whole posting strategy here wouldn't be based around it.

The American people don't "dislike" Obama's reaction to the cover. They dislike having to deal with it all.

Again here, you're blaming the victim for the problem. You have a major problem with causality in your race relations viewpoint.

The whole thing supports my thesis as relayed elsewhere that all of this race and Muslim baiting is enervating the public and they will soon tire of the baggage that Obama will bring to the Presidency.

Another unsubstantiated claim that the color of his skin will bring baggage to the office.

Obama is bogged down by racial issues everywhere he seems to turn.

Ditto.

Obama's race is a fact and how he and we deal with it are determinative factors int he election.

To ignore it is folly.

Here you just accept that racists exist.

Barack Obama has consistently made race the force field around himself to protect his candidacy. I dare not delve into his own personal history which has caused such consternation among large percentages of voters for fear of you all lopping my head off. But facts are facts.

His policy failings aside, his lack of consistency in his positions negated, Barack Obama has asked Americans in my view to cross a bridge too far.

They do not want the next four years to be a dialogue about race relations and racial identity and for racial politics to be the focal point of the next four to eight years.

There is too much important business to be done.

That he has been tarred as the Black Candidate is as much his doing based on his past and his present and the bell once rung cannot be unrung.

This is the fatal flaw in his candidacy and I fully expect it to track in the polls over the present cycle.

Obama's racial identity has become the focal point of the present news cycle and that bodes ill for him.

Obama is asking Americans to cross a bridge too far? And again you make a lot of unsubstantiated race-based claims here.

(and Obama their new and improved Adolf Hitler)

Comparing Obama to Hitler. Cute.

Unlike Barack Obama (and the Muslims) I feel no need to cast aspersions on homosexuals

First you link him with Muslims here (on accident... not to scare the ignorant people who are scared of a religion) and then you claim the Obama's a homophobe? Did you remember the Republicans trying to make it illegal to marry another person of the same sex, so much so that they tried to get it into the freaking Constitution?

electing a racially charged candidate like Obama to the presidency will be seen as risky and distractive to many people

You're substantiating racist views at an astonishing clip here.

4) There is a segment of the AA population that fears his election b/c it will forever end the culture of entitlement and the underpinnings of affirmative action on which many of them falsely believe they depend.

This was a good one. Here you claim that black people not only have a culture of entitlement due to affirmative action, but it's only based on them falsely believing that they depend on affirmative action.

What the Revered Wright revelations made plain is that there is a lot of aberrant thinking in the Black community and its values and thought processes are vastly different from those of the majority culture.

What about southern whites... would you say southern whites have values and thought processes that are vastly different from those of the majority of culture? Everyone I know would say this. Yet, you've just pointed out the people who have different color skin.

You may think my comment or reasoning to be dispicable, but there are many in the AA community who like the leg up they have been given and don't want Barack Obama pulling the ladder up behind him.

More of the same.

All this constant race talk will take its toll on Obama and he will badly lose moderate/independent white voters of both genders if it keeps up.

Here you actually hit the nail right on the head, but you again still seem to blame Obama instead of the white voters who are basing their decisions on this stuff.

Read Maureen Dowd on how humorless a man Obama is. How you can't even make a joke about him. It fuels my narrative that his candidacy is too charged with personal identity and has created a discomforting hyper-sensitivity that many voters would best want to avoid, even if they might otherwise be inclined to opt for change.

Obama's fault again.

Me? I suspect a backlash. Not that we are racist, but we resent being told that oppostion to his candidacy is akin to being a racist. Will we have to hear that for four years? How will we accomplish anything as nation if all debate is framed in terms fo a racial divide?

More of the same.

Anyway... I'm not sure if this site has a page limit, but that should take up at least a few pages. All of these are direct quotes. All of them will be claimed as not racist and just trying to stir intelligent conversation. All of them are part of an effort by YOU to bring race to the front and center of the discussion. You condone having these opinions by emphasizing them and taking them as matter of fact.

Again, your viewpoint disgusts me.

We are being offered a great gift to study as it happens the first serious campaign by an AA for President of the US in history. Let us not lose the opportunity by some false scruples or squeamishness. We must be willing to call a diamond a diamond!

My diamond is younger, smarter, and has better ideas. Your diamond just has skin-color closer to most of the people in this country. Hopefully, people think for themselves and can see that.

Hey, EnzoValenzetti:Show me the racism in what I h...

2008-07-16T18:01:00.000-04:00

Hey, EnzoValenzetti:

Show me the racism in what I have said.

I think you are all just afraid of me and my provocation which is meant to focus all our thinking. Especially mine!

Now watch your language and get off my lawn!

McSame '08 (Because what you don't know can hurt you!)

Considering how quickly Iowa has returned to the D...

2008-07-16T18:00:00.000-04:00

Considering how quickly Iowa has returned to the Democratic fold, it really is a testament to how awful a campaign John Kerry ran that he was able to let that state slip.

90% of Americans overestimate the size of the blac...

2008-07-16T17:22:00.000-04:00

90% of Americans overestimate the size of the black population of this country.

Probably because they are so loud in movie theaters.

Seriously Nate, can't you ban a couple of these ra...

2008-07-16T17:13:00.000-04:00

Seriously Nate, can't you ban a couple of these racist fucks? I doubt you'd want your website to be used for vile propaganda dissemation by the likes of Pete Kent.

lol well, he changed his headline for it now. it's...

2008-07-16T17:07:00.000-04:00

lol well, he changed his headline for it now. it's mccain regains 20 point lead or somthing like that.

jim.s, that´s exactly what I wanted to say in the ...

2008-07-16T17:03:00.000-04:00

jim.s,

that´s exactly what I wanted to say in the post above yours.

and the new Ras poll is what I meant with Rasmussen always screws its poll memos up:

Kansas: McCain leads Obama by ten

Republican presidential candidate John McCain leads Obama 52% to 32% in the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Kansas voters. When “leaners” are included, it’s McCain 58% and Obama 35%.

...

nothing to say to that, except that Rasmussen apparently just copies its poll memo from the last survey of a state and changes the percentages.
This time they forgot to change the headline.

Pete Kent said 38 times..."I have a gut feeling th...

2008-07-16T17:02:00.001-04:00

Pete Kent said 38 times...

"I have a gut feeling that the numbers are all wrong! BTW: You liberals suck!

McCain really has got the Stupid Vote...

new rasmussen KS poll mccain winning by 20% now.

2008-07-16T17:02:00.000-04:00

new rasmussen KS poll mccain winning by 20% now.

Hey, Left Wing Zealot: Get offa my lawn! Damn ki...

2008-07-16T16:54:00.000-04:00

Hey, Left Wing Zealot: Get offa my lawn! Damn kids!

Did y'all notice that I called Jim S out at 11:11AM asking for proof of the racist statements I have made (per his post of 10:06) and he has supplied NOTHING!

I guess he was do busy penning his quantitative theory on the existence, vel non, of God.

How very insightful and a bit sad, really.

Hey, you kids! What did I tell you about my lawn???!!!

McCrankey for Pres.

PS: McCain narrowed Obama's lead to 3% in today's Gallup tracker --YIPPEEEEEEE!!!!

Yes, of course it's precise in the sense that the ...

2008-07-16T16:47:00.000-04:00

Yes, of course it's precise in the sense that the last simulation run had exactly this output, and these are the percentages of that output.

I think broadly it has some predictive value, and that whatever that value is, it can't be quantified to the basis-point level -- but your point that that probably isn't its main purpose is a good one. That is why I like this site, I often learn something.

Good. I think all of the nutty right-wingers are g...

2008-07-16T16:41:00.000-04:00

Good. I think all of the nutty right-wingers are gone. Now maybe we can rule the world!

I want Obama to win in a landslide!

I want him to beat the pants off of those sorry-*ss, uppity, white, sumbitches who've ruled us for way too long....the Repukes!

I want socialism!

I want abortion legalized with no limitations!

I want guns gathered up and incinerated!

I want 'under God' taken out of EVERYTHING!

I want every Mexican who can to come up here and work the jobs that lazy-*ss white trash won't work!

I want the United Nations to control our outdated Constitution! Obviously, we need some kind of overseeing body or else we'll declare a unilateral military action against people we don't like.

I want full nuclear disarmament and the reduction of 90% of our military!

I want Social Security expanded, as well as other entitlement programs!

I want no taxes on any income under $100,000 and a tax liability of 70% or more on anything above $1 million!

I want it all!

The time is now! Obama will bring these things, thank goodness!

Go Obama in '08/'12! Pick Biden as your VP, please!!

Yay!

Nate can speak for himself, but I believe he repor...

2008-07-16T16:40:00.000-04:00

Nate can speak for himself, but I believe he reports to the 2nd decimal place, because what he's reporting is data (which is what I think the post right above this is saying). Those percentages are the percent results of his simulation. There is no error in those numbers. There's error in the results (i.e. the data behind those numbers), but the % representation in each set of 10,000 simulations is a simple counting exercise and represents no source of error in and of itself.

He's not saying that Obama has a 4.66% chance to lose the Popular Vote, but win the Electoral Vote with that number... he's saying that 4.66% of his simulations give that result. I do believe that he believes those numbers to be representative of the relative chances of those events happning, but he's not claiming to have 0.01% accuracy in determining them. In reality, every number here, being based on polls, has a huge error bar attached to it (though smaller than the error bars on the individual polls themselves if you can follow).

"If Rasmos is right about this, then I think the S...

2008-07-16T16:05:00.000-04:00

"If Rasmos is right about this, then I think the Scenario Analysis should only show one decimal place. Otherwise it's overstating its case."

Sure it is, because if just the last simulation was replaced by another one, it would show different results.

But are you sure what it´s "case" is? I could imagine it´s just for playing around with the numbers, and the ANALYSIS (not projection) of the last simulation run. And with analyzing past numbers you don´t have any random noise -.-

Not a single post for the day at 4:00pm EDT. Real...

2008-07-16T16:01:00.000-04:00

Not a single post for the day at 4:00pm EDT. Really?

Pete Kent, I don't know whether you are a consciou...

2008-07-16T15:43:00.000-04:00

Pete Kent, I don't know whether you are a conscious racist, but you certainly are a fabulous bore. I assume you come here seeking attention that your tedious personality denies you in the real world. You have nothing positive or insightful to contribute - just a rusty door squeaking in the wind.

I hope my link works... if the guys start talking ...

2008-07-16T15:35:00.000-04:00

I hope my link works... if the guys start talking about Romney....scroll down and click the "launch" button to get to the Democratic contest.

TI said,Anytime you're ready for a fact-based, qua...

2008-07-16T15:32:00.000-04:00

TI said,
Anytime you're ready for a fact-based, quantitative discussion on policy, I'm right here waiting.

And that misses the point of the site. Nowhere on the FAQ is there any mention of policy discussion. Not that it's always a bad thing to go off-topic, but when doing so you've got to realize you're doing it.