Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Cracking a Tracking Poll: Theory and Practice

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Why the current poll numbers don't bother me ...My...

2008-09-08T11:31:00.000-04:00

Why the current poll numbers don't bother me ...

My industrial statistics teacher explained it to us thus: Making a measurement of a statistical variable in this situation is like piloting a small boat through a strong current in choppy seas.

The surface choppiness is what the tracking polls measure. But you need to take account of the current (underlying trend) also, or your course (what you are measuring) will be wrong.

The "true" measure of where you are is going to be a weighted average of the choppiness (daily measurements), and of the current (the underlying trend).

At the moment its blowing a hurricane and the waves are mountainous. Its pretty much an outlier. So Nate can't really get a bearing on what the true situation of the race is. The convention bounces (of both Obama and McCain) have to blow themselves out before we can get something nearer an accurate measure.

Nate is basically trying to guess what the underlying trend is so as to guesstimate a "true" measure. Is the trend counter to the hurricane? Or is it aligned with the current hurricane (McCain's bounce)?

Basically anyone who claims that the Republican convention has changed the "fundamentals" of the race, that person does not really know anything. We need another week or so to decide that. Given his track record, Nate's guesses are probsably more informed than anyone elses.

So when are you guys gonna dump Biden and replace ...

2008-09-08T08:52:00.000-04:00

So when are you guys gonna dump Biden and replace him with Hillary? I think it's your only change to win. The McCain Surge is Working! =)

Okay, first off there is NO chance whatsoever that...

2008-09-08T05:14:00.000-04:00

Okay, first off there is NO chance whatsoever that Biden will be replaced on the ticket. Obama has promised to sit down and talk with President Clinton, thats what is happening on the 11th. Its nothing truly major.

Any Democrat panicking right now needs to sit down relax and remember how much of a lead Bush had coming out of the convention season 4 years ago. (And its not like Bush's approval ratings where high 4 years ago!) We are in the GOP bounce zone right now, so we all need to calm down.

Thanks Nate, it's very interesting to see your met...

2008-09-08T04:10:00.000-04:00

Thanks Nate, it's very interesting to see your methodology. I haven't touched probability or statistics since modern physics at university, so I'm probably going to write something stupid here...

It seems the problem here is that you are dealing with aggregate data, while you wish to decompose it so you can observe day-by-day changes. The polling companies are commonly forced to aggregate their data otherwise a statistical outlier will make their data look unreliable. However, the outliers are less likely to occur if the sample size is large.

So what if you weight it by number of interviews on a given day across each of the pollsters additionally weighted according to your reliability ratings? Or do you not have that information?

Also, I'm just being pedantic here but you mentioned that
"there are an infinite number of mathematically valid values of M1 and M2",
But that doesn't seem correct in practice. They are obviously bounded by 0 and 100, and calculating values of M1 and M2 past a couple of decimal places is silly if the margin of error is so high.

Mmmmmm Nate Silver Kool-Aid!303 EV's, 68% of winni...

2008-09-08T03:37:00.000-04:00

Mmmmmm Nate Silver Kool-Aid!

303 EV's, 68% of winning for Obama?

And he's down by 10 among likely voters in the newest USA Today poll.

Love that Nate Silver Kool-Aid!

Will Walker (paraphrasing Bill Clinton)"Obama is t...

2008-09-08T02:53:00.000-04:00

Will Walker (paraphrasing Bill Clinton)
"Obama is the right person to restore our place in the world, so that our allies will help us combat terrorism.

Obama has the right policies to bring prosperity to the middle class."

This is so true. But how do we get this message out to those who need to hear it?

By the way, keep the haikus coming!

Hey, thank you, Will...seriously. You condensed in...

2008-09-08T02:21:00.000-04:00

Hey, thank you, Will...seriously. You condensed into wonderful sound bites exactly what we should say when we canvas, when we call. And, yes, it is what I think but worded so much better.

Wow, Hudson, interesting post!I think we "forget" ...

2008-09-08T02:18:00.000-04:00

Wow, Hudson, interesting post!

I think we "forget" Palin for the most logical reason of all: the Presidential candidates are Obama and McCain, period, end of story.

Wow, I think I just figured out why I really suppo...

2008-09-08T02:10:00.000-04:00

Wow,

I think I just figured out why I really support Obama, instead of just hating the GOP.

I think the strongest argument for Obama is (ironi...

2008-09-08T02:07:00.000-04:00

I think the strongest argument for Obama is (ironically) the one that Bill Clinton made:

Obama is the right person to restore our place in the world, so that our allies will help us combat terrorism.

Obama has the right policies to bring prosperity to the middle class.

If I were speaking to a non-political voter, I would bring up these as the key reasons to support Obama.

Thank you, Bill Clinton.

Matt - I agree with most of your points.I think Sa...

2008-09-08T02:03:00.000-04:00

Matt -

I agree with most of your points.

I think Sarah Palin honestly believes she can do what is right for her country.

I think she wouldn't be half bad.

But she isn't running for president. And she isn't writing the policies. She isn't writing her own speeches.

Obama seems to have honestly run the kind of campaign I would like to see in American politics. I agree with his policies and worldview about 75% of the time, too.

Obama's team seems to be the team that wins the championship - no flash, no egos, just a lot of good teamwork and fundamentals.

It's also about a 6.8% increase in Registered Vote...

2008-09-08T01:50:00.001-04:00

It's also about a 6.8% increase in Registered Voters (using 2007 numbers).

will JUST SAY NObut still if you can't get enoughr...

2008-09-08T01:50:00.000-04:00

will JUST SAY NO

but still if you can't get enough

realclearpolitics.com of course

ezra klein http://www.prospect.org/csnc/blogs/ezraklein
andrew sullivan
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/
mark nickolas
http://www.politicalbase.com/profile/Mark%20Nickolas/blog/
josh marshall (tpm)
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/
marc ambinder
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/
and i have just started reading charles kozierok
http://aabw.blogspot.com/

i like ezra ... and josh marshall is pretty funny

This could be long. I enjoy (obsess over, actually...

2008-09-08T01:48:00.000-04:00

This could be long. I enjoy (obsess over, actually) 538, as it is as close to smart banter that shares my leanings without giving way (usually) to go-team sorts of thinking. So, as I also feel the sinking ship feeling that was talked about, I want to make five points. These are sort of related to Nate's "energy guy" post a few days ago but are really about how on earth we, as average folks, can ensure that this is a thoughtful election.

1) Most Americans don't consider themselves to be smart. Just people. As such, when we say that we are tired of our intelligence being seen as a liability or freaky thing, it makes us seem arrogant. It really isn't arrogant, we all know this. That doesn't matter. Most people don't consider themselves above average. Funnier than average? Yes. Smarter? No. Also, most people I know outside of my peer group (I am a dot-edu guy) don't tie ideology into their identity. They aren't progressive. Or conservative. Again, they think of themselves as being normal. They think both sides have "good points." It is possible that they see patterns to those points that are ideological, but usually it's just about moment to moment choices -- they go with their gut. They should. Don't get me wrong. I am not talking about the thirty percent of America who agrees with me or the thirty percent of America who could be shown a picture of our current president eating a baby and still find a way to vote for him; I am talking about the forty percent of America who decides everything and really does think of themselves as normal people. Finally, on this, I am not saying they are less valuable than me for thinking this way; my point is that IT DOESN'T WORK TO TRY TO PROVE WHY CONSERVATISM IS WRONG OR STUPID. These things don't exist, not in the abstract, to most people. Not the way they do to me or Mule.

2) Information will never win. If you believe the devil lies, you can't be won over with argument. Because there is SO FRIGGIN' much information in the world, most people ignore most of it. This means that all of you telling us to ignore gaffes and take the long view are right. But it also means that all of the logical reasons to vote of Obama won't convince the forty percent I am talking about: they aren't stupid but they have plenty of good reasons not to believe you. A recent study showed that an equal percentage of Americans were willing to believe that a malevolent force (Satan) might have planted the fossil record as were willing to believe evolution might be true. Thought provoking. We are as willing to believe that the devil, literally, is lying as we are that truth is true. For what it's worth, that study is a fiction. It didn't happen. But it would take you days to prove that I made it up. As such, for most folks, information and even video doesn't mean much. Think about how many "facts" you disregard each day because your basic world view tells you they are false. Oy.

3) We have to stop saying Sarah Palin isn't qualified to be president. She is a naturally born citizen and she is old enough. She's qualified. The constitution does not establish a yard stick to measure qualifications. I believe this is intentional. Such yardsticks tend to be racist, sexist, or at least promoting oligarchy. As such, Sarah Palin represents the hope (I swear to God, that the reaction to her is the flip side of the optimism that has allowed Obama to be Obama) that all of us truly could be president. We want to call her nomination cynical, and it likely is in some way, but America's reaction to it is anything but: we forgive her basic idiocy and light-weightocity because of a hope that the American dream really is true. As such, every time that we point out how ill-prepared she is for office, we come off as trying to preserve an oligarchy. I don't care if the 40% would call it this. But this is what they believe on some level. That we are standing in the way of non-lawyers being president. As such, I think the progressive movement should really ponder, honestly, why she's exciting. On any objective level, her speech was really pretty ordinary. But we're acting like it was amazing? Why? If Obama is right that he is just riding the tide that says something about us, the same thing applies to Palin. Don't respond to this by saying "sure, it proves we're stupid." It might. Hell, I think it probably does. But I think it proves a lot more. I know many smart people who have had to really think about the idea of president because of this nomination. That's a good thing. Let's go with that. Use that. Ponder that.

4) The republicans, many of them as smart as I am, believe this reaction has to do with coffee and Espresso. Culture wars. Effete intellectualism. I don't think it does. I think it has to do with the comforts of knowing something is real; republicans have gotten to use the currency of realness -- the Simulacra, if you'll forgive the pomo -- and as such appear to be real. They talk about this as being normal people. And to that extent, they are right, but it's not because Susie Q. is actually like GW or Carl Rove; it's because they think that they "know" GW or Carl Rove. They think they're real because their identities are conveyed in the same set of symbolic terms that most of us use to identify ourselves. Love. Of family, God, country, etc. Of course I think most Republicans aren't who Americans believe they are, but they absolutely win the authenticity gap.

5) I don't know how to do this. I was once asked, by a student, if I, when I was cut, bled the idea of blood. I think this is part of our problem. Ideas aren't real. We really do have the trump card on EVERY FRIGGING ISSUE THAT MATTERS TO AMERICANS. It doesn't matter. We don't seem real.

Short of getting Palin to pull of her human face and reveal a lizard face, which would still leave her and McCain polling at 44 or so, I don't know how to do this.

Suggestions? I got tired and stopped making sense. This is not the perfect, pithy post I imagined as my debut. But I am too tired to delete.

Matt
(my favorite thing about 538 is OZ's salutations at the end of flame mail... you all are retards! bye. It's like punching me in the face and then cuddling.)

dennis,Obama doesn't understand he has to win the ...

2008-09-08T01:46:00.001-04:00

dennis,

Obama doesn't understand he has to win the election first?

What kind of koolaid are you drinking? He frequently mentions "We have to win first."

Instead, Obama put country first by selecting a solid choice to be "one heart beat away" while McCain, as you just said, selected winning over country first.

"The ground game and voter registration drive is s...

2008-09-08T01:46:00.000-04:00

"The ground game and voter registration drive is strong in the states we need."

This is good news and also why I think it might be for the best if McCain is close or just a little ahead of Obama in the polls on election day. Alot of voters need a good reason to get out and vote especially if it is raining that day or whatever. A close race is better for Obama I think. If these people really want to vote for him, they will make a point to actually show up if they think there is a real threat that Obama might lose.

OTF-265,000? That's about 3.4% of the state.

2008-09-08T01:44:00.000-04:00

OTF-
265,000? That's about 3.4% of the state.

Will Walker,Also VA doesn't have party registratio...

2008-09-08T01:39:00.001-04:00

Will Walker,

Also VA doesn't have party registration numbers but Obama campaign registerd 49,000 in august and 113,000 since june, plus another 142,000 before june bringingthe total to 265,000 and the yare gunning for 40,000 more in september. The ground game and voter registration drive is strong in the states we need.

But Biden can alway drop out of the ticket on his ...

2008-09-08T01:39:00.000-04:00

But Biden can alway drop out of the ticket on his own (with probably a little nudging from the high powers to be in the party) if he thinks the best chance of a Democratic win is with Hillary as VP.

But I agree all this talk about Hillary taking Biden's place is really pretty stupid talk right now. Sure It may not be in a couple of weeks...but it's really crazy talk right now.