Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: On which reputations are made (or lost)

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2009-10-09T04:06:06.006-04:00

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2009-09-09T03:50:01.680-04:00

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2009-03-27T02:53:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-12T00:19:00.000-05:00

I don't know why people view these numbers suspici...

2008-06-03T16:11:00.000-04:00

I don't know why people view these numbers suspiciously. Obama has essentially abandoned the primary campaign to focus on McCain, while Bill and Hillary are still going all out. In a state the size of SD, that can easily represent a 30-40 point swing within a matter of weeks. I think we're going to see a lot of stunned faces tonight. It will be interesting to see how Obama spins the results if, in fact, the loss is as wide as ARG is projecting. It will be equally interesting to see what impact this has on the Clinton campaign strategy over the coming days.

Is it just the ARG poll that's influencing the Int...

2008-06-02T20:34:00.000-04:00

Is it just the ARG poll that's influencing the Intrade numbers for SD (also MT)?

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/

When I saw the numbers posted I thought it was a t...

2008-06-02T20:14:00.000-04:00

When I saw the numbers posted I thought it was a typo (they had the two reversed). Maybe they hit Chelsea and Bill hotel room in their three person poll.

I'm beginning to see where Obama's gonna get his d...

2008-06-02T19:22:00.000-04:00

I'm beginning to see where Obama's gonna get his delegates from in the next 24 hours or so. He only 24 or so delegates below where he needs to be right now... Then there's the 15 Senators Harkin's been talking with (admittedly, not all will go), but...

Then there's 6 Pelosi Club Members...

Then there's Cylburn's an whatever he brings with him...

And then, of course, whoever else Obama has in his pocket.

Is there any chance that ARG accidentally stumbled...

2008-06-02T18:34:00.000-04:00

Is there any chance that ARG accidentally stumbled upon The Lost Tribe of Appalachia and polled them heavily?

Seriously, ARG is a joke. It tends to slant WAY to...

2008-06-02T17:58:00.000-04:00

Seriously, ARG is a joke. It tends to slant WAY to far towards Clinton, especially in this region of the country. Furthermore, Obama did some substantial early voting GOTV. I'd believe that SD will be close... But I just don't see Clinton winning any state west of the Mississippi and north of the 36th parallel, particularly not by double digits. In either case, neither candidate is likely to get more than 8 delegates out of SD... Obama will get 9 in Montana.

Anon 4:21, this is my concern, too. It's becoming ...

2008-06-02T17:50:00.000-04:00

Anon 4:21, this is my concern, too. It's becoming like the neverending story except without the luckdragon.

I will be highly disappointed if Obama loses SD pa...

2008-06-02T17:28:00.000-04:00

I will be highly disappointed if Obama loses SD particularly by such a wide margin.

I really want Obama to finish up strong in the final 2 primaries. God Damn why won't Hillary lay the hell off?

My fear is that if there is a blow-out Clinton win...

2008-06-02T17:21:00.000-04:00

My fear is that if there is a blow-out Clinton win in South Dakota, then she will be pushing the claim that Obama's big wins in similar caucus states like Nebraska, Kansas, and Iowa were really just a fluke of the caucus system. Sure, I know this is a bogus argument for various reasons (e.g., the rules set up caucuses as the mode for apportioning delegates in those states, and we've got to play by the rules). But I don’t want to have to hear these arguments and worry about it anymore. Can we please just have an Obama win in SD or a small Clinton victory and be done with this?

Well, I hope Poblano's numbers come back with Obam...

2008-06-02T16:48:00.000-04:00

Well, I hope Poblano's numbers come back with Obama on top or close in SD. It will help me sleep more easily tonight. Of course, Obama is going to get the nomination. But if Clinton did somehow win by 25-30 points in SD, I think she might not drop out right away. The end of primary will just go down a lot smoother without another Clinton blow-out win at the very end. Come on Nate's numbers . . . give me a good night's sleep.

I don't see how Obama loses Montana, nor South Dak...

2008-06-02T16:26:00.000-04:00

I don't see how Obama loses Montana, nor South Dakota as he's already dominated the North Central and Pacific Northwest regions.

Reason 1: the non-coastal states are all fairly consistently red Republican states as far as General Elections. The voters in Democratic primaries thus tend to be more liberal than traditional Democratic voters in the Great Lakes and Northeast regions.

Reason 2: This area of the country has a much more significant Libertarian streak (evident in both Republican AND Democratic voters) than the rest of the country. These voters are turned off by Clinton's Universal Health Care initiative (big government program mandated over the objections of ordinary citizens like them). They also remember the incidents at Ruby Ridge, Idaho and Waco, Texas which occurred during Bill Clinton's presidency. Voters on the coasts may have forgotten about these events but Rocky Mountain and Plains states citizens still bear a strong resentment of Federal government as a result, especially the Clinton-led Federal government.

There's not a lot of evidence that Obama could flip any of the states from Idaho to Nebraska in November, but it is clear that Hillary Clinton wouldn't have a snowball's chance of doing it if she would be the nominee.

Yes, we will definitely have projections up later....

2008-06-02T16:19:00.000-04:00

Yes, we will definitely have projections up later.

Nate, will you post projections for SD and/or MT? ...

2008-06-02T16:18:00.000-04:00

Nate, will you post projections for SD and/or MT? I will certainly be looking forward to them if the answer is "yes."

How the hell did that post twice? I swear I only c...

2008-06-02T16:08:00.000-04:00

How the hell did that post twice? I swear I only clicked once. Really!

First of all, Nate, might I say this site is one o...

2008-06-02T16:07:00.001-04:00

First of all, Nate, might I say this site is one of the greatest developments in the history of wonking.

Second, might I beg that you consider taking on the BCS next.

Third, regarding the above post, have you any thoughts on the ARG Montana poll? Montana is, as you know, one of the whitest and blue-collar-est states in the Union. So it was somewhat surprising to see last week that Obama was polling (Lee Newspapers) almost 20 points ahead of Ms. Clinton. But now we see ARG suggest that the two are locked in a statistical tie. What gives? Sadly, neither one of the polls is by what I would consider a very reputable source, so I'm not sure we can really draw any solid inferences from them. What do you think?

First of all, Nate, might I say this site is one o...

2008-06-02T16:07:00.000-04:00

ARG also says Obama's only up 4% in Montana.http:/...

2008-06-02T16:05:00.000-04:00

ARG also says Obama's only up 4% in Montana.

http://americanresearchgroup.com/

Hard to believe that this poll is accurate given t...

2008-06-02T15:48:00.000-04:00

Hard to believe that this poll is accurate given the results in neighboring states:
IO - O+8
MN - O+34
ND - O+25
NE - O+35
WY - O+24

Admittedly, all of these are caucus states. But, even if you assume an Obama caucus advantage of 15 or so points (about the difference between the Texas primary and Texas caucus results), Obama would still seem a solid favorite. As Nate notes, there also hasn't been any significant movement in the national polls. Thus, if this ARG poll is accurate, it would seem the Clinton SD campaign has really moved the electorate somehow.

Maybe ARG is playing Intrade? (You were looking fo...

2008-06-02T15:47:00.000-04:00

Maybe ARG is playing Intrade? (You were looking for their business model, weren't you?)

It's a pity you do not publish a projection, really. It's unfortunate that readers look at this as if a projection is a game in which Nate may "win" or "lose" and so Nate is now led to project only where he believes he will "win". Projections are best considered as experiments, in which any outcome is of interest, "predicted" or otherwise (indeed, in an experiment, an unpredicted result is often more interesting, in that it reveals some new reality).

Anyway, even if we don't have Nate's MT-SD Clinton/Obama projection, we do have his against-McCain 538 regression, which is at least an indication of the demogaphics. The gap against McCain is identical, an Obama 7 points advantage (i.e. Obama loses in both cases, but by about 7 points better than Clinton does), which agrees well with the 10-20 Obama victory that everyone expects. However, heavy campaigning is worth about 5 points by Nate's model, i.e. this can well be very close in SD. (In other words, MT-SD can be a very nice experiment to study the impact of campaigning, clearly the one factor distinguishing the two).

Here's a "for what it's worth" comment. I'm being ...

2008-06-02T15:45:00.000-04:00

Here's a "for what it's worth" comment. I'm being vague on identifying details because I don't want to get a staff member in trouble.

I was an Obama volunteer in a state with a primary last month. An Obama field staff member that has moved on to SD started sending out urgent emails last week looking for volunteers to head up to SD to help with GOTV. (Odd as we are a loooong way from SD.)

They forwarded an article about the Clintons spending lots of time in the state and perhaps being able to pick up enough votes there to end up ahead in popular votes. (This was all before Michigan/FL decision and before PR.)

Personally, I don't put any stock in the popular vote argument... also I took the whole episode with a grain of salt as it is probably hard to keep field staff focused when the race has been essentially over for weeks.

Nonetheless, in the multiple emails it implied campaign polls showing a Clinton lead at a level not being picked up by the national press.

As the great Jerry Seinfeld says, ARG, Good luck w...

2008-06-02T15:18:00.000-04:00

As the great Jerry Seinfeld says, ARG, Good luck with aallll that.