Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Road to 270: Minnesota

^^ very nice 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社, 徵...

2009-03-12T01:51:00.001-04:00

^^ very nice 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社, 徵...

2009-03-12T01:51:00.000-04:00

情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,...

2009-01-19T10:00:00.000-05:00

Using Pollster.com's excellent interactive feature...

2008-10-02T03:43:00.000-04:00

Using Pollster.com's excellent interactive feature, I've just compared Google Insights graphs of the parties' popularity in MN with Pollster.com graphs of the candidates in the same "toss-up" state. Interesting similarities and contrasts... See my Word Face-Off blog.

There's also the small issue of how one gets accep...

2008-09-13T14:40:00.000-04:00

There's also the small issue of how one gets accepted into Harvard and later doesn't get flunked out. You can do it by performing spectacularly in high school and excelling in your studies, or you can be a legacy, or you can do and be both. Bush was either the second or the third. I'm willing to bet my entire intrade account that he was not the third.

In response to overrated's comment regarding Harva...

2008-09-13T14:27:00.000-04:00

In response to overrated's comment regarding Harvard education vs intelligence.

Matt Damon did indeed attend Harvard but dropped out prior to finishing his studies and did not receive a degree. George Bush also attended Harvard Business college and graduated with an MBA.

I have seen endless posts regarding President Bush's alleged inferior intellect. According to you, everyone who went to Harvard (and I guess that means any ivy league college) is not only not an idiot but instead is a person possessing considerable intelligence. Does this mean you really believe GW's IQ is well above average? Btw.. did you graduate from Harvard?

1. McCain has gained 13 points since Rasmussen's ...

2008-09-13T14:11:00.000-04:00

1. McCain has gained 13 points since Rasmussen's last SD poll in July. Obama's hopes in ND, MT, and one CD EV in Nebraska are now dashed. I expect MN and IA to show some spillover effect too from their conservative neighbors.

Minnesota is not nearly as rural as ND, SD, or MT. Most of the states population lives in the 7 county Metro area. The Twin Cities suburbs lean conservative but Minneapolis and to lesser extent St Paul are as liberal of cities as you will find anywhere.

Am-its a tough electorate to poll right now...too ...

2008-09-13T14:07:00.000-04:00

Am-its a tough electorate to poll right now...too much uncertainty and fluctuations

I still don't understand how Gallup managed to pol...

2008-09-13T13:58:00.000-04:00

I still don't understand how Gallup managed to poll McCain's support as consistently slipping and Rasmussen somehow pulled a +9 day on 9/11. Even with the "house" lean Republican, this is odd.

1. McCain has gained 13 points since Rasmussen's ...

2008-09-13T13:56:00.000-04:00

1. McCain has gained 13 points since Rasmussen's last SD poll in July. Obama's hopes in ND, MT, and one CD EV in Nebraska are now dashed. I expect MN and IA to show some spillover effect too from their conservative neighbors.

2. Disregard a candidate's maximum polling number all year as a guide to election day. At one point, Dukakis was ahead by 17 points in the polls and he ended up posing by 8.

3. With respect to 3-day trackers, even if you can know to a certainty what the numbers were for the day that is dropping out, you don't know what the new day will bring (unless you are a psychic) so why try to figure such things out mathematically. Just take a guess and have fun seeing if you are correct.

Gallup looks to be moving closer. McCain's lead is...

2008-09-13T13:51:00.000-04:00

Gallup looks to be moving closer. McCain's lead is now down to 2. Statistically tied. Considering everything I think Obama should feel pretty good about this position. The facts are totally on his side. McCain/Palin's ads/speeches/interviews are full of LIES and that's becoming more and more obvious. Those lies will put off independent voters. Only right wing lunatics will stick with them. They'd vote for McCain/Palin no matter what though, you obviously can't worry about them.

John McCain Is A Liar.

One last thing before I hit the gym. Sooner or la...

2008-09-13T13:48:00.000-04:00

One last thing before I hit the gym. Sooner or later RealClearPolitics is going to have to drop that ridiculous USAToday McCain +10 poll from Sept 7th.

Now really, had that poll been Obama +10 does anybody here really think RCP would have kept it in their polling avg. for so long?

The +10 comes out and we will see this race is around McCain +1.7 nationally.

qute,Making a logical argument to Republicons is f...

2008-09-13T13:47:00.001-04:00

qute,

Making a logical argument to Republicons is futile b/c they can not be swayed by fact, logic, or reason. They don't utilize higher brain function in determing their votes, they utilize the primative structure of the amygdala based on emotions and in many cases negative emotions of fear, resentment, etc. Republicons have a rigid construct and are incapable of change and mold their views to retain that rigid contruct even in the face of unequivocal facts to the contrary of their construct. This is a thinking or lack thereof that is inherent in some mental diseases and psychoses.

Oh here it is:http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...

2008-09-13T13:47:00.000-04:00

Oh here it is:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601070&refer=politics&sid=auPofEVcBXrs

OTF, exactly! Winning a state by 1 vote or 5 Mill...

2008-09-13T13:44:00.001-04:00

OTF, exactly! Winning a state by 1 vote or 5 Million nets you the same electoral college votes so McCain is hemhorraging popular votes right now in all these really really red states.

Chun, my wife's family lives in Hartford, CT (45 minute drive to Foxboro) so I can assure you that you are correct in saying that just getting to the playoffs is not enough for the Pats. However, you still need to make the playoffs to eventually win the Super Bowl.

"bryen did you read that off of talking points mem...

2008-09-13T13:44:00.000-04:00

"bryen did you read that off of talking points memo?
Just wanted to see if we both saw the same article from different links."

Can't remember, but I read it this morning. I remember the article saying Obama people being "tight-lipped" about the number that's going to be released on the 20th, but it will be historic. About every month, they seem to float a fundraising scare leak designed to get people to pony up even more.

Gallup Daily tightens again: M: 47O: 45"These resu...

2008-09-13T13:42:00.001-04:00

Gallup Daily tightens again:

M: 47
O: 45

"These results, based on interviewing conducted Wednesday through Friday, indicate that the presidential contest is -- for now, at any rate -- settling back into the close race that it was before the two weeks that marked both candidates' selections of their vice presidential running mates and the two conventions. In the weekend before the Democratic convention, the race was tied 45% to 45%. Now, as the "convention dust" is settling, the race is at 47% McCain, 45% Obama, only slightly different.

During the time period of the conventions, of course, the race underwent predictable "bounces" -- first for Obama, who at one point had moved out to an eight percentange point lead, and then for McCain, who moved out to a five-point lead. Now, it appears that the structure of the race -- after all the sturm und drang of the convention period -- ends up not all that different than when the conventions began.

Recent days have seen intense media focus on Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin's widely publicized television interviews with Charles Gibson of ABC News, hard-hitting television ads, and the usual campaign back and forth. The next major planned event involving both candidates will be the first presidential debate on Sept. 26. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.) -- Frank Newport"

Pete,The fact that McCain held the Thurs Ras numbe...

2008-09-13T13:42:00.000-04:00

Pete,

The fact that McCain held the Thurs Ras numbers after Friday was added doesn't mean that Friday matched Thursday. It means that Friday matched Tuesday (the day that fell out). If Friday matched Thursday, McCain's numbers would have gone up (since the 3-day tracker would have consisted of 2 really good days instead of one).

There's a whole lot of imprecision in the individual day cracks, but it's pretty clear that Thursday was a great day for McCain (since it moved him from even to plus 3). It's also pretty obvious that Friday was closer to even, since the new info didn't increase the number at all.

Actually, Daniel, the better analogy is that Texas...

2008-09-13T13:41:00.000-04:00

Actually, Daniel, the better analogy is that Texas offsets New England. If New England were one state, it would be a Democratic stronghold of 34 EVs.

Similarly, the Pacific West offsets Dixie.

I find the mindless pontification on national poll...

2008-09-13T13:39:00.001-04:00

I find the mindless pontification on national polls hilarious, if it weren't so utterly futile and stupid. We have an elEctoral college system. State polls matter. As illustrated by me atleast t times if you change 50,000 votes in the right states in 2000 out of 100million..thats's 0.05% folks. Bush or Gore could have had 310+ EC votes, which is an easy EC win.

IT MATTERS WHERE YOUR SUPPORT IS CONCENTRATED. THERE ARE NO BONUS PTS FOR WINNING BY 20PTS COMPARED TO 1 PT IN A STATE...IT'S THE SAME # OF EC VOTES! PONTIFICATION ON EVERY TICK IN NATIONAL POLLS IS SILLY!

bryen did you read that off of talking points memo...

2008-09-13T13:39:00.000-04:00

bryen did you read that off of talking points memo?
Just wanted to see if we both saw the same article from different links.

otf,Just spotted your Palin "fiscal policy" post.....

2008-09-13T13:38:00.000-04:00

otf,

Just spotted your Palin "fiscal policy" post...her answers scare the daylight out of me too. At least most of the Republicans here acknowledge she's out of her depth in this respect, or so I hope.

Daniel,You talk as if getting into the playoffs is...

2008-09-13T13:37:00.001-04:00

Daniel,
You talk as if getting into the playoffs is the seasonal goal for a Belichick led team. I assure you, it is not.

haha dario my boy, because the last thing RCP want...

2008-09-13T13:37:00.000-04:00

haha dario my boy, because the last thing RCP wants to do is create any link (however small) with the daily kos lest The resident curmudgeon chuck krauthamer shit his diapers....

Trevor,Correct, a lot of those states are sparsely...

2008-09-13T13:34:00.000-04:00

Trevor,
Correct, a lot of those states are sparsely populated (the Upper East Side of Manhattan has more people than Wyoming) but taken as a whole (including TX), with such enormous REDNESS it actually trumps Obama's collective BLUE advantage in CA, NY, and IL.

So many blue states are closer MI, PA, WI, NJ, MN, OR but are not likely to switch from BLUE to RED so that a McCain +2 nationally is actually not at all a bad number for Obama with respect to winning the Electoral College.