Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: On Obama-Clinton

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2009-10-08T05:41:31.988-04:00

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2009-02-16T23:14:00.000-05:00

I wonder if the fact that Obama was being hailed a...

2008-08-19T11:27:00.000-04:00

I wonder if the fact that Obama was being hailed as the ultimate winner, ala "the math", is the reason that Hilary received fewer mentions in the press? Or have we forgotten the fact that she was virtually written off after feb?

Softcore PUMAs say now that they would be satisfie...

2008-08-19T00:45:00.000-04:00

Softcore PUMAs say now that they would be satisfied with Obama/Clinton, but hardcore PUMAs think the VP would be an insult and/or a trap. I haven't seen a poll on this. In MSM media there are many pro-VP comments, but in hardcore PUMA sites such as bitterpoliticz anyone who promotes the Obama/Clinton option gets shouted down.

WP/ABC's July poll found it a wash among the general public: 23% would be more likely to vote for O/C, 23% more likely to vote for the BOP ticket.

Making the assumption (for the sake of discussion)...

2008-08-18T16:07:00.000-04:00

Making the assumption (for the sake of discussion) that Clemons is honest AND isn't being used as a distraction...

It comes down to Biden or Sebelius.

One of them fits well with the overall narrative of the Obama campaign--and one doesn't.

Given those assumptions, I'd say it's Sebelius. Or--given Obama's ability to keep things under wraps--Schweitzer.

Economist/YouGov/Polimetrix (Aug. 11) Page 4Do you...

2008-08-18T12:55:00.000-04:00

Economist/YouGov/Polimetrix (Aug. 11) Page 4
Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people?
Have a favorable opinion of...

Total-Dem-Rep-Ind
-----------------
Hillary Clinton 46%-80%-9%-44%
Barack Obama 53%-80%-22%-52%
Bill Clinton 48%-81%-11%-47%

With only 9% of Republicans having a favorable view of Hillary, she will not be the VP pick. She brings nothing to the ticket.

DCM in FL,Wow, thank you for treating me like a Mc...

2008-08-18T11:38:00.000-04:00

DCM in FL,

Wow, thank you for treating me like a McCainite troll.

Clinton would likely hurt Obama in MN more than Pawlenty would help McCain, yes, but I'm not convinced that T.P. would lose the state for the GOP. Show me statistics that suggest that a VP choice with approval ratings in the 50% range or below. Otherwise, sorry, that sounds counterintuitive.

I'm an Obama supporter no matter which running mat...

2008-08-18T10:55:00.000-04:00

I'm an Obama supporter no matter which running mate Obama chooses. I don't like Hillary Clinton, I'm sick of the Clinton's, but if I thought she'd help Obama win I'd be 100% for it. But I feel certain that Hillary on the ticket will galvanize the Republican base more than anything else, including the Infanticide threat hanging over Obama's head. It's true that women rose up enmasse when Hillary came under negative attacks, but women alone (and I am one) won't be the deciding factor alone. What about all those Independents and disenchanted Republicans who hate the Clintons? H-A-T-E.

The Republicans are praying for Obama to make this mistake. They haven't needed to attack Hillary and Bill yet. Not really. But don't kid yourself. The Clintons have made a lot of mistakes since they were last vetted.

Meh.... I lost my bet that the VP was to be announ...

2008-08-18T10:13:00.000-04:00

Meh.... I lost my bet that the VP was to be announced on Sunday (and you only have one shot ;-)).

If I was Obama, I would never, ever, ever pick Clinton as VP. The drama would be endless, before and during the presidency. The only problem is that he might have to. I am now rationally able to accept Clinton (which I wasn´t 3 months ago), the arguments are good - but if you have a choice between several good picks you just don´t take the one that will annoy you the most.

You said it yourself Nate, she hasn't been the sub...

2008-08-18T03:30:00.000-04:00

You said it yourself Nate, she hasn't been the subject of negative attacks in a long time, which means her public appeal has been only going up. She essentially became a national treasure after her primary run. She's on my short list, but only because I refuse to accept the MSM short list.

agreed. and all parties know the adage:keep your ...

2008-08-18T02:45:00.001-04:00

agreed. and all parties know the adage:

keep your friends close and your enemies closer.

[just do not turn your back in the dark]

It's no secret that Michelle hates the Clintons. ...

2008-08-18T02:45:00.000-04:00

It's no secret that Michelle hates the Clintons. She told a reporter in Wisconsin: "I want to rip Bill Clinton's eyes out," as she clawed the air with her fingernails.

David Gergen said on CNN that Michelle and other Obama campaign members believe that if Hillary were VP, Barack would need a food taster as she would have him killed. Likewise, Peggy Noonan wrote in the WSJ that Hillary would poison him in the White House.

It's even possible that running mate Hillary would have Barack killed before the election so that she could ride into the White House on a wave of sympathy a la Angela Lansbury's plot in The Manchurian Candidate.

Barack will not pick her. Even if she did not have him eliminated, she and Bill would make his presidency a living hell for him.

Doesn't matter how much scandalous ammunition the ...

2008-08-18T01:59:00.000-04:00

Doesn't matter how much scandalous ammunition the right wing thinks it has available to use against Hillary. The GOP base has heard it all before and is starting to get bored. Besides, it would only be effective in the tomato-red states Obama wouldn't win anyway. Meanwhile, the voters Hillary brings to the table in the swing states would get absolutely furious when she was attacked. You can bet your last money they'd push back at McCain - harder than hard. Now as far as compatibility is concerned, there may be no love lost between the Obamas and the Clintons, but it's unlikely they actually hate each other the way JFK and LBJ manifestly always did.

Listen DCM in Florida. I agree. Obama puts her on...

2008-08-18T01:27:00.000-04:00

Listen DCM in Florida. I agree. Obama puts her on the ticket and he gets a 5-8 point bump overnight. The media loves the Clinton's because of the controversy they bring and would be slurping this like a crack addict. That convention would be rocking and they would come out of there like a rocket. Obama hates her, but its time to win the general. Win first, worry about governing later.

notes from on the ground in FL...McCain is in FL n...

2008-08-18T01:19:00.000-04:00

notes from on the ground in FL...

McCain is in FL now to speak to a veterans convention - and pretending to help us prepare for the approaching hurricane [Fay].

[Some think John thought that 'Fay' was one of his ex-girlfriends coming after him...]

Anyway, from my feedback recently here from DEMS & INDs in central FL:

- most have become ready to concede that Obama would not be able to overcome the GOP advantage in FL, although it would probably be close.

- BUT this week hope springs eternal with the news/rumor/noise coming out that in Denver they may now seat the entire FL [and MI] delegation with full voting. This was enough of a gaffe in FL to cost the DEMS at least a few polling points with PUMAS & INDs.

- and now, IF HRC does get the VP bid then the hard-core PUMAS will suck it up & turnout to vote DEM - not FOR Obama, but FOR HRC as the 1st female VP/POTUS-in-waiting.

- my mom's bridge group tonight. 4 widows in the 70's & 80's. 3 PUMAs threatening to vote for McCain [or sit it out], only 1 Obama DEM [mom].

- despite McCain's warmongering & GOPer threats to SocSec & Medicare & Healthcare, 3 of 4 would cut off their nose to spite their faces UNLESS HRC at least gets VP.

Makes little or no sense after all this time & info, but it is what it is. Counterintuitive I think, but even though I would prefer someone else for VP, if HRC can do this in OH & FL and bring 2-4 points or more of the lagging DEM demo, then why the hell not ?

"Pride goeth before a fall"

can I get an 'amen' ?

TheMarvelousApe ...The same time Hilary was losing...

2008-08-18T01:18:00.000-04:00

TheMarvelousApe ...

The same time Hilary was losing support in February was the time Obama was winning 14 in a row. That would hurt anyone's numbers. The time Obama stopped attacking (Which wasn't much before that anyway) was when Hillary got her groove back through March, April and May and was winning. So although it appears as though it were the attacks on her, thats not indisputable.

Last week Rassmussen polled Hillary and she was 8 points ahead of McCain. Obama was +1. Again, she's not getting attacked, but +8 is very close to the +9 number I thought she would have in my previous post.

Sedi said...Matt J.H.: Where did you get this idea...

2008-08-18T01:12:00.000-04:00

Sedi said...
Matt J.H.: Where did you get this idea? Legally, he can't just give her the money from this campaign funds.

No he can't but his camp wasn't interested in helping her out through his own donors which is the usual route. They were pissed at her for dragging them through the mud in March, April and May, while she couldn't win. And it was selfish Clinton bullshit. Anyone else would have dropped out after losing 14 in a row and been deeply in debt, but not them.

This made the Obama camp furious I'm sure, and Obama wasn't interested in helping her out, but he ended up giving in to her and looking weak in the process anyway.

Now his lead is gone, he gave half the convention to the Clinton's and he still has no predominant campaign message for the general election besides change. He had better get his act together fast. he is the CEO of his campaign, and right now he's taking on water.

He needs to bring in a Clinton operative to help Gibbs with the communications department with talking points and general media spin, and find a solid line of attack against McCain and drive it home.

Matt,Respectfully, I'm not buying what seems like ...

2008-08-18T01:07:00.000-04:00

Matt,

Respectfully, I'm not buying what seems like some arbitrary math, especially if you acknowledge Nate's point that Clinton was not subjected to very much negative press or attacks in the last two or three months of the primary. There is no guarantee that she would not have been severely effected by a barrage of negative ads, especially given her financial disadvantage and the fact that the McCain campaign would have had a field day if she made the sort of complaints she did during the primary.

While I agree that Obama needs to improve his media game, I don't think Clinton's theatrics would make up for the inherent weaknesses and constricted electoral map.

PeteKent @ 9:49 PM said... "An Obama Clinton tick...

2008-08-18T01:01:00.000-04:00

PeteKent @ 9:49 PM said...

"An Obama Clinton ticket would be fraught with as much risk as reward."

Thanks for your 'concern, PETE.

hhmmm...seems to me that you & your cohorts have been singing HRC's praises all summer & gloating about how McCain was attracting her PUMAS.

or was that the other PeteKent...

anyway, as always the smart money will place out bets on everything that goes against the stellar advice you care so much to share with us.

I was against HRC - before I was for her now [IF Obama decides to choose her].

Then it would certainly be Obama/Clinton vs McCain/Romney for the block...

ThatMarvelousApe ...I hear ya. but listen. Obama g...

2008-08-18T01:00:00.001-04:00

ThatMarvelousApe ...

I hear ya. but listen. Obama got a 5 point bump when he finished the primary. That bump lasted until Schmidt took over the McCaincampaign and started using the Rove tactics on Obama at which point Obama strated dropping. Now, the reason Obama is dropping is because he doesn't have a coordinated attack message, or a descent communications department. His biggest weakness is his lack of offense.

Now take Hillary. She had a steady 4-5 point lead on McCain at the end of the primaries, better than Barack, and everyone knew Hillary had lost. Take that 4 points and add a 5 point bounce from winning the primary and you get 9 points. Thats a lot. Now take that 9 point lead with the Clinton Attack machine and today had she been the nominee, It may have even grown because of McCains weaknesses, whereas Obama's lead is gone.

Based on this information, I have no doubt Hillary would be rolling over McCain right now. Sure, I could be wrong, but thats my feeling. Obama can still win and he may, but he's not put together a standard set of media talking points for media manipulation and thats Presidential campaigning 101.

Obama may have come back from vacation yesterday, but from my opinion, he's been on vacation since June. I say again,

Presidential politics are won using "FREE" media. ie. CNN, FOX, MSNBC

and local networks. Local networks take the lead from the big networks. For instance, McCain always issues attack adds to the media before they go on air to get all that extra media coverage. Obama does not. Obama wants to slide them under the radar so he can pass as the high-minded politician. This is a mistake. Obama should make adds with the express purpose of being interesting and different like the Paris Hilton ad so the MSM will run lots of segments on them for free coverage.

Secondly, Obama has no talking points. Every republican on every network say the same thing. Obama is a celebrity, he has no experience, he's going to raise your taxes. Coordinated attack. Obama has no talking points and seeds the ground to McCain.

Third, Obama needs to rustle up some fake outrage. When Obama made the racial "They're going to come after me because I'm black" comment, no one thought Obama was playing the race card, millions of people, and hundreds of reporters and the major networks played that stuff and nobody gave it a second thought. However, the next day, McCain issued a statement claiming Obama played the race card (Fake outrage) and got 5 days of bad press towards Obama because of one 200 word bullshit statement. But the media slurped it up, like the McCain camp knew they would.

These are games Obama doesn't play, but Hillary would, and they work. Obama needs to get on board.

I personally think Sebelius is the best VP pick at...

2008-08-18T01:00:00.000-04:00

I personally think Sebelius is the best VP pick at this point. While she probably won't be able to deliver her home state Kansas, she will be able to win the support of many women reluctant to support Obama. The new PPP poll in Ohio showed Obama hasn't won the vote of many middle-aged voters, particularly women, and Sebelius will certainly help.

I was once under the notion that Obama couldn't possibly pick a female VP not named Clinton for fear of angering Clinton supporters. Those are the voters that won't vote for Obama regardless.

Obama/Sebelius '08

HARRISON,TPaw couldn't help McCain carry MN in eit...

2008-08-18T00:56:00.000-04:00

HARRISON,

TPaw couldn't help McCain carry MN in either of their dreams or yours for that matter.

I posted a link yesterday showing how polling in MN this week indicates that with TPaw on the GOPer ticket, McCain loses the critical IND voters.

Tim can't get 50% in his own state - he is just a big ol' goof with a mullet 'do [oops. he cut that off this summer hoping for your vote].

McCain/Pawlenty - well, he is no Dan Quayle ! lol

I hope like heck that he does get the slot... guarantees MN stays BLUE.

Serious question. What does Joe Biden bring to th...

2008-08-18T00:51:00.000-04:00

Serious question. What does Joe Biden bring to the ticket. Everyone is touting him, but if I recall from his presidential run, he was a disaster waiting to happen. Given his baggage and the fact that he is not a good campaigner, what makes people think he is a good choice? Serious question.

I don't have any VP polls from the past couple of ...

2008-08-18T00:49:00.000-04:00

I don't have any VP polls from the past couple of months, but if primary polls are fair game on your side of the table, so they are on mine. :)

And, point about OR and WI (and MN to a lesser extent, particularly if McCain takes on Pawlenty), but Nevada, Indiana, and New Mexico would probably still be in play as well. (No polling data in particular on this; demographically, though, it makes sense).