Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Today's Polls, 9/28

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2009-07-23T01:47:50.987-04:00

レーザー脱毛、Vライン脱毛の銀クリの医療脱毛は安心納得価格で愛されボディに。各コース先着50名様30...

2009-07-13T22:38:37.474-04:00

レーザー脱毛、Vライン脱毛の銀クリの医療脱毛は安心納得価格で愛されボディに。各コース先着50名様30%OFFキャンペーン中！

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^^ very nice 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社, 徵...

2009-03-12T03:13:00.001-04:00

^^ nice blog!! ^@^徵信, 徵信網, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵...

2009-03-12T03:13:00.000-04:00

徵信社, 感情挽回, 挽回感情, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 捉姦, 徵信公司, ...

2009-02-08T22:55:00.000-05:00

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2009-01-18T07:46:00.000-05:00

was out in my front yard yesterday evening when an...

2008-09-29T13:50:00.000-04:00

was out in my front yard yesterday evening when an older couple pulled up to say hi. they are well-known republicans in our precinct. they told me they are emphatically voting obama--they'd just seen the series of Palin interviews with katie couric and were throwing in the towel. They asked me to keep the information secret, as they are very active in the local republican scene and didn't want to be punished, as they had to sign a loyalty oath in 2004.

Alyssa--"He blew the 200 election by 8 points ."20...

2008-09-29T09:23:00.000-04:00

Alyssa--

"He blew the 200 election by 8 points ."

200? They're talking about elections during the Roman Empire now, and Rasmussen was around to predict them? :)

'Btw, someone is claiming to be registered as a "chaos" Democrat... what the hell does that mean?? Republican in disguise to confuse polling or someshit?'

Rush asked his viewers to participate in "Operation Chaos" after the Republican primaries were over by temporarily registering as Democrats to scramble the remaining primaries and damage Obama/keep Hillary in the race.

I suspect this is where we got so many "PUMAs"--many were technically registered as Democrats late in the game but were pulling for McCain. Moreover, states like WV and KY had many right-leaning Dems to begin with.

Where are you getting 59% chance for Obama in Flor...

2008-09-29T08:36:00.000-04:00

Where are you getting 59% chance for Obama in Florida and 84% in Virigina?

Ummm...the sox weren't eliminated from the post-se...

2008-09-29T00:05:00.000-04:00

Ummm...the sox weren't eliminated from the post-season this afternoon. It only feels that way because they have to beat the Tigers and Twins in back-to-back games to get in.

Maybe if the Sox brought in a rookie with utterly no experience to pitch tomorrow. He could just keep hitting batters and walking people, then claim victory based on a lack of hits in his box score.

There is a stark lack of state-level polling to ba...

2008-09-28T23:41:00.000-04:00

There is a stark lack of state-level polling to back up the model's projections in IN and FL. Is everything functioning properly? McCain leads in the last 5 state level polls in FL, but Obama is projected to win? Same basic thing in IN. I thought the model was built to undercount changes in the national trackers, but it feels like they're weighted much too heavily if they're swinging states away from the clear trend of state-level polling.

"I'm going to make sure you have Miss Alaska stand...

2008-09-28T23:39:00.000-04:00

"I'm going to make sure you have Miss Alaska standing by in your trailer waiting to blow you at all times"

Ha-Ha

Ari Gold. From Entourage September 28th. Seriously. Strangely timely.

www.sarahpalinrumorcheck.blogspot.com

www.cuttingconfessionsfilm.blogspot.com

www.myspace.com/370392338

I think Steven's idea of the gambler ad at about 9...

2008-09-28T23:28:00.000-04:00

I think Steven's idea of the gambler ad at about 9pm is excellent. Its good straight forward but it has legs too. A lot of people don't know McCain loves to gamble. So, when people talk about it and someone tells them its more than a metaphor they will go "wow". Just the thing, clever for those tuned in, a jolt to the dolts. Way to go Steven, named after the first christian martyr, thinking for the cause.

Gallup had the race tied on the Wed. morning that ...

2008-09-28T23:10:00.000-04:00

Gallup had the race tied on the Wed. morning that McCain made his crazy suspension and McCain is now down 8 in Gallup. What could have made McCain make such a self-inflicted wound that makes him look unsteady and ties him to the unpopular bailout?

KARLO said...The bradley effect discussions just w...

2008-09-28T23:05:00.000-04:00

KARLO said...
The bradley effect discussions just will not die. Use the post tags on the left to find Nate's excellent discussions on the Bradley effect.

Thanks for the information, Karlo. As I believe I mentioned, I've read many studies on the supposed Bradley Effect, including Nate's fine work.
First, I'd like to note that by no means am I arguing that there will be one, nor even that one is likely. I am simply expressing an opinion that I personally believe some variation of it to still be a possibility.

Second, with regards to such in a presidential election, I have issues with the studies I have seen in general...

A) The primary results Nate uses are those of the most recent Democratic Primary.

"Democratic Party Primary Voters" is a sample-size that carries no small amount of selection bias, in my opinion. I would strongly suspect those who are enrolled in the Democratic Party AND care enough to vote in the primary (many enrolled don't care about or vote in the primaries) would tend to be more left-leaning than your average Democrat or Independent.

At the risk of having several flame-throwers aimed squarely at my ass, it is my experience that these voters -- the ones who identify with the Democratic party strongly enough to vote in the primaries (some may call them more "liberal" the Sally and Sal Sixpack) -- are far less likely to be vaguely racist than Democrat and Independent voters in general.

This makes Democratic Primary polling and subsequent results a poor fit for arguing against any variation of Bradley Effect in a general election.

B) The use of mayoral and senate races certainly gives us valuable information. But there is no study that involves a presidential race.

Well, duh! Of course not, because there's never been one. So this is not the problem I have.

I personally know -- unfortunately -- at least two people who say they could accept a black congressman or mayor, but not a black president. They just can't "wrap their heads around it". They insist -- of course -- they are not racist, blah blah blah.
(Side note: I'm working hard on these two poor souls, I promise.)

I suspect the number of people who fall into this boat is small, but not insignificant. After all, we've already had African-American mayors, governors, senators, etc. But never before a president. It's a first, and that makes it a harder nut to crack practically by necessity.

It's absolutely naive to assume that the following is not true:
Some voters can accept one (a "fill-in-the-blank" senator) but simply not the other (a "fill-in-the-blank" president").

Therefore, I feel the studies I have read ignore this effect. Namely: that of the higher office necessitating a higher threshold of tolerance for some people. Not all bigots are of the straight "all or nothing" variety.

Having said aaallll that...I'd like to reiterate that I *agree* with Nate about the cherry-picking of results and the over-reliance on decades-old data to support a strong Bradley effect.

Hell, I don't even think those I worry about would even *lie* to pollsters. The Bradley Effect -- as strictly defined -- is not something that concerns me as much. I simply think there will be a non-insignificant number of people who flat-out change their mind when it comes time to vote, or in the immediately preceding days.

I hope not. But it wouldn't surprise my perhaps overly-cynical mind in the least.

Ah well.

-- False Joe

Nate, couldn't agree with you more: http://thelibe...

2008-09-28T23:02:00.001-04:00

Nate, couldn't agree with you more: http://theliberalcrab.wordpress.com/2008/09/27/keep-plugging/

Nate couldn't agree with you more:

2008-09-28T23:02:00.000-04:00

Nate couldn't agree with you more:

I live in NYC... I'll keep an eye out for him.

2008-09-28T22:30:00.000-04:00

I live in NYC... I'll keep an eye out for him.

CAreful. Bush is closing in on bin Laden. I think ...

2008-09-28T22:22:00.002-04:00

CAreful. Bush is closing in on bin Laden. I think they are going to try and bag OBL, and make their own October surprise.

The more bullshit I hear, I'm starting to wonder if Bin Ladin isn't in Detroit somewhere. We swear he's in Pakistan, Pakistan swears he's in Afghanistan (outside Kabul there isn't a great deal of difference between tribal Pak and tribal Afghanistan).

There was just a story out of Canada where someone had a bad name so he changed it so he quit getting flagged at airports. All bin Ladin has to do is switch out to Bob Bin Ladin and he could be living in NYC for all we know.

Yeah, the FR should rename itself the Scot Free pa...

2008-09-28T22:22:00.001-04:00

Yeah, the FR should rename itself the Scot Free party. No responsibility, no accountability, least of all when you really fuck up the country for 300 million people.

Bin Laden probably died of natural causes a few ye...

2008-09-28T22:22:00.000-04:00

Bin Laden probably died of natural causes a few years ago, so Bush isn't going to bring him in this October or any other time.

I think my favorite FR comment was: "It's too bad ...

2008-09-28T22:18:00.000-04:00

I think my favorite FR comment was: "It's too bad that the party in power always gets blamed for these kinds of economic problems but Hussein is going to get in because of it anyways"

Or something along those lines.

I mean seriously, why can't the public understand that the party in power should never be blamed for when the country gets off-track? It's crazy, I tell you...

Yes, Sarah is probably McCain's greatest gift to t...

2008-09-28T22:16:00.000-04:00

Yes, Sarah is probably McCain's greatest gift to the Obama campaign. But in keeping with her witchcraftery links, I suspect there's some sort of secret message in hidden in her name.

An anagram. When properly decoded, it may even suggest extraterrestial connections.

My aging dad thought that Sarah must be secretly Jewish. The first name, after all, was a signal. And her, as he put it, "brashness." Even her last name, he said, "Palin." Must have been a reduction from Palinovski or somethin Russian.

Never mind that her actual family name was Heath, and her parents were Roman Catholics (if not devout), and that the Palin name comes from her husband and he's partly descended from indigenous peoples.

Mind you, he didn't think the Jewis connection was a bad thing. It implied a certain pedigree, as far as he was concerned.

Still, that S A R A H P A L I N. There's a message in there somewhere.

Haha the freepers are losing their freeping minds:...

2008-09-28T22:15:00.000-04:00

Haha the freepers are losing their freeping minds:

Ras is not very accurate period.
People go on and on about him because he called the 2004 election but so did the Battleground Poll.
He blew the 200 election by 8 points .
In fact, his state polling track record is not great but POOR.
The Mason Dixon polls ( if there not subcontracted by NBC etc..) are fairly accurate .

Btw, someone is claiming to be registered as a "chaos" Democrat... what the hell does that mean?? Republican in disguise to confuse polling or someshit?

I agree with Juris' pessimism. But we have one se...

2008-09-28T22:08:00.000-04:00

I agree with Juris' pessimism. But we have one secret weapon in reserve.

And our secret weapon is --

S A R A H P A L I N

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Today's Polls, 9/28

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レーザー脱毛、Vライン脱毛の銀クリの医療脱毛は安心納得価格で愛されボディに。各コース先着50名様30...

^^ very nice 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社, 徵...

^^ nice blog!! ^@^徵信, 徵信網, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵...

徵信社, 感情挽回, 挽回感情, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 捉姦, 徵信公司, ...

情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,...

was out in my front yard yesterday evening when an...

Alyssa--"He blew the 200 election by 8 points ."20...

Where are you getting 59% chance for Obama in Flor...

Ummm...the sox weren't eliminated from the post-se...

There is a stark lack of state-level polling to ba...

"I'm going to make sure you have Miss Alaska stand...

I think Steven's idea of the gambler ad at about 9...

Gallup had the race tied on the Wed. morning that ...

KARLO said...The bradley effect discussions just w...

Nate, couldn't agree with you more: http://thelibe...

Nate couldn't agree with you more:

I live in NYC... I'll keep an eye out for him.

CAreful. Bush is closing in on bin Laden. I think ...

Yeah, the FR should rename itself the Scot Free pa...

Bin Laden probably died of natural causes a few ye...

I think my favorite FR comment was: "It's too bad ...

Yes, Sarah is probably McCain's greatest gift to t...

Haha the freepers are losing their freeping minds:...

I agree with Juris' pessimism. But we have one se...

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