Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: After the Magic Number, the new Magic Number

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2009-02-12T00:17:00.000-05:00

"the otherwise valid and totally realistic superde...

2008-06-03T16:31:00.000-04:00

"the otherwise valid and totally realistic superdelegate flipping hypothesis"

Why are you writing about it then?

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In all seriousness, I think there is another "magi...

2008-06-03T14:59:00.000-04:00

In all seriousness, I think there is another "magic number" that is more interesting - the number of delegates Obama needs to inoculate him from a serious credentials/convention challenge and allow him to be magnanimous on several fronts.

Would be interested in such an analysis. I think it would primarily focus on seating the full MI and FL delegations and provide an additional buffer to eliminate gripings about the 59 "hijacked" MI delegates (55 uncommited and 4 supposed HRC that were "granted" to Obama).

By my VERY rough count that it would be

19+2=21 (HRC gain from converting MI to full vote)

55+4=59 (BHO loss from MI)

~5 (HRC gain in MI/FL superdelegates)

Total needed 85
New magic number (approx) 2203

Can he reach this??

To Sean -Once it was clearly a joke, if tasteless....

2008-06-03T14:32:00.000-04:00

To Sean -

Once it was clearly a joke, if tasteless. But four paragraphs defending it makes it not a joke any more. Please stick to numbers.

David in CA

The add-ons would be just as likely as Michigan pl...

2008-06-03T13:10:00.000-04:00

The add-ons would be just as likely as Michigan pledged delegates to switch to Clinton, if they were guaranteed by the Michigan deal this weekend. Obama's team would identify who they wanted picked, just as they would for their pledged delegates. Otherwise, the deal would be meaningless. Remember, for Clinton Magic Number purposes, these are people she needs to be able to convince to flip. If those Michigan add-ons were guaranteed, as Chuck Todd reported, then you can be sure Obama will not select people who can be swayed. That is how they will be essentially vetted for loyalty.

I have never posted under "Poblano." As for the great concern over me noticing Clinton's behavior. I suppose it is a little rude for me to remember that she said that over and over and over and over. That's a fair point. I am often rude like that. Here we were, having a nice little post about Clinton's route to the nomination even after it is over and everyone stops caring. Technically she could win if enough Obama-declaring supers reverse themselves. And another route is, technically, as Hillary Clinton has oft been heard to point out, RFK was shot in June in California.

But I can see how rudely remembering Clinton's repeatedly insistent point about how people can get murdered and have it affect who gets the nomination - and associating that with the post's subject about extreme longshot ways to win the nomination - uncouthily undermines my credibility, and the site's. It casts a huge shadow on the otherwise valid and totally realistic superdelegate flipping hypothesis.

After all, you objectors must be arguing that if Obama's killed, this is NOT in itself a Magic Number, right? That Clinton would never try to win after such a thing? So of course it was unrelated.

Agree with Jim @05:31 - it may be that Nate and "S...

2008-06-03T12:21:00.000-04:00

Agree with Jim @05:31 - it may be that Nate and "Sean" were both posting under the name Poblano before but now that they are distinct, I'm getting seriously turned off by Sean's snark. It does take away from the analysis; I'd suggest muzzling it at the risk of losing the very great credibility this blog has built up over the last few months.

Yeah, it was really inappropriate when Clinton bro...

2008-06-03T12:14:00.000-04:00

Yeah, it was really inappropriate when Clinton brought up the assassination...

Why would Obama be vetting the add-on delegates fr...

2008-06-03T08:57:00.000-04:00

Why would Obama be vetting the add-on delegates from Michigan? Add-ons are unpledged. Vetting is for pledged delegates.

Jack Evans, the DC pledged switcher, flopped back to Clinton (or never meant to say he switched in the first place).

And I agree with Jim that the assassination joke was a bad idea.

Not a fan of your assassins comment at the end, it...

2008-06-03T08:31:00.000-04:00

Not a fan of your assassins comment at the end, it detracts from your analysis.

Let's hope it doesn't come to that. Hopefully it'l...

2008-06-03T00:55:00.000-04:00

Let's hope it doesn't come to that. Hopefully it'll be Clinton's superdelegates abandoning her sinking ship starting Tuesday night.

The whole idea that Clinton would be a viable candidate after essentially stealing the nomination from Obama is insane. I mean think about how some Clinton supporters are saying they won't support Obama - and they don't even have any reason to feel that way. Obama supporters would have a reason. And as shown by the fund raising numbers - Obama has many more "hard core" supporters.

The nihilist in me wants to see the superdelegates...

2008-06-03T00:30:00.000-04:00

The nihilist in me wants to see the superdelegates overturn this.

Now that Bill Clinton has resolved to outright slandering Obama as being the head of a conspiracy to attack Hillary through the media AND the pulpit(!), can we finally stop pretending that the Clintons want Obama to beat McCain? What else do they have to say to make it clear they are speaking to their supporters, not superdelegates, in an effort to foment rebellion?

This stopped being about 2008 no later than 5/6, and probably two months before then.

Huckabee doesn't have a 'magic' number, he has a '...

2008-06-03T00:23:00.000-04:00

Huckabee doesn't have a 'magic' number, he has a 'miracle' number. He majored in miracles, you know.

Her campaign has reached the epitome of absurdity,...

2008-06-03T00:08:00.000-04:00

Her campaign has reached the epitome of absurdity, seriously.

What is Huckabee's magic number?

2008-06-03T00:03:00.000-04:00

What is Huckabee's magic number?

You know, I was just arguing with someone today ov...

2008-06-02T23:45:00.000-04:00

You know, I was just arguing with someone today over whether it was still possible for Hillary to win the nomination. Now, in the cosmic sense, anything is possible. But in reality, tomorrow is the end of the trail for Clinton and Obama is the presumed nominee in the same sense that McCain is the presumed nominee.

I do think Clinton will still make a statement at the Credentials Committee meeting on principle.