Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Ron Paul To Appear on Montana Ballot

I live in Helena, Montana. All I see are Obamanite...

2009-10-20T02:11:11.384-04:00

I live in Helena, Montana. All I see are Obamanite hippies. Where did the libertarians go? The South.

http://offgridmontana.com

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2009-10-08T04:31:31.465-04:00

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2009-03-12T01:57:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-12T01:57:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-08T22:46:00.000-05:00

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Using Pollster.com's excellent interactive feature...

2008-10-04T03:50:00.000-04:00

Using Pollster.com's excellent interactive feature, I've just compared Google Insights graphs of third parties' popularity with Pollster.com graphs of their candidates in the same "toss-up" states. See my Word Face-Off blog.

Can anyone who lives in and/or knows MT very well ...

2008-09-18T18:28:00.000-04:00

Can anyone who lives in and/or knows MT very well make a strong case for the state not being in play?

I'm a Montanan (Missoula) - and Ron Paul has a huge following here. In the Gop Primary and Caucus (we have both) Paul got 25% and 20% respectively.

Having Paul on the ballot will hurt McCain much, much more than Obama. And to those who say that Palin will win it for McCain: No. We're not gullible and we can see through her transparent facade.

I will be ecstatic to see the next MT poll that includes Paul. I'm expecting something like 45% Obama 38% McCain 17% Paul. Yes. I'm serious.

Have studied the Electoral College for hours upon ...

2008-09-12T10:39:00.000-04:00

Have studied the Electoral College for hours upon hours every national election year and still haven’t a clue as to how it it has survived. It is simply tiring explaining it and studying it- almost as tiring as this country’s bogus “two party system” that we are forced to participate in IF we choose to vote. Bottom line is, if 200 million people vote, then 200 million votes should be properly counted and the winner named the winner based on popular vote - period. It is remarkable that A) This archaic system is still in place in 2008 when every tiny corner of this country is more connected via internet and cable television than ever, and B) WHY THE PUNDITS ON TV OR RADIO NEVER TALK ABOUT IT!!!! EVER! Most importantly, if everyone knew clearly that their vote TRULY counted in whatever state they lived in and that their vote could not be over ridden because they live in a “blue or a red state” then more people would vote. Absolutely nuts.

Nate: Been reading through your blog from 28AUG t...

2008-09-12T00:45:00.000-04:00

Nate: Been reading through your blog from 28AUG to current. You miscalled it on the Palin effect and have not manned up to admit that. Also, Palin helps with libertarians. I was going to vote for Barr, but will now vote for Palin and send John McCain a duck hunting invitation from Dick Cheney after the election.

Just like people shouldn't underestimate the impac...

2008-09-09T23:40:00.000-04:00

Just like people shouldn't underestimate the impact Barr with have in Georgia right? /sarcasm

Sorry, this talk about how Paul could play spoiler in Montana is about as silly as the talk that Barr would be a spoiler in Georgia. Remember all that? Now no one even mentions it as a possibility.

Sure, Paul could be a spoiler. Sure, Barr could be a spoiler. Just wake me when we have a number of polls consistently showing it.

This discussion seems to be over, but I thought I ...

2008-09-09T20:06:00.000-04:00

This discussion seems to be over, but I thought I would point to this article at Reason that makes my point for me.

So much for the Ron Paul effect in Montana:Rassmus...

2008-09-09T17:41:00.000-04:00

So much for the Ron Paul effect in Montana:

Rassmusen released,

McCain +11

New Rasumussen Montana poll out. McCain is +11. Th...

2008-09-09T17:29:00.000-04:00

New Rasumussen Montana poll out. McCain is +11. That should take the pipe dream of Obama winning it off the board with or without Ron Paul.

Also new Survery USA North Carolina poll with McCain +20. Yes you heard it right +20. I think we can safely say the wild fantasy of Obama winning NC is gone, and should also start making people realise that Virginia is fools gold.

New Flordai polls show Mccain 50 to 45.

Looks like if Obama wants to win this election his only real shot is out west in Colorado and Nevada.

Nate and the boys are having a bad week. Montana i...

2008-09-09T17:23:00.000-04:00

Nate and the boys are having a bad week. Montana is in:

Montana Rasmussen
McCain 53,Obama 42 McCain +11

Colorado and Nevada will follow as the ALL WESTERN, gun toting ticket dashes all Obama hopes in the Mountain Time Zone!

Nate, are you still predicting "Obama will be up a couple, three points by the end of this week", as you stated last Friday?

P.S. Keep sending Biden to Montana! That's sure to turn things around!

"America's Got Talent but remember, the voter line...

2008-09-09T17:17:00.000-04:00

"America's Got Talent but remember, the voter lines don't open until the after the show", says Jerry Springer . . . "and then America decides". The show is the 1st debate. I bet the audience will be biger than the biggest night of the conventions. Their is a lot of support both ways that is wide and about 1/2 inch deep.

Glenn in CO,Someone might have already corrected y...

2008-09-09T16:42:00.000-04:00

Glenn in CO,

Someone might have already corrected you on this, but -- You stated that the national Constitution Party nominated Alan Keyes, but that's not true. He tried to get the nomination but failed. Chuck Baldwin, a Baptist preacher who some anti-"New World Order" types seem to like, got the nomination. Bob Smith actually tried to get their nomination for the 2000 election, but claims that anti-Catholic sentiment within the party prevented it from happening. Perhaps Keyes, a black Catholic, was a bridge too far.

djl wrote:Libertarians like Sarah Palin? Really?I'...

2008-09-09T16:27:00.000-04:00

djl wrote:
Libertarians like Sarah Palin? Really?

I've voted Libertarian in every presidential election since I turned 18, and the woman gives me the willies. Between the (alleged) attempt at book banning, the (apparent) extreme social conservatism, and the mocking of people who are concerned about civil liberties that may be infringed by the "war on terror"...man, I dunno.

While I am certainly no Libertarian, you have rattled off the short list (which could be longer) of why I would imagine Libertarians being utterly repulsed by Palin.

I have to admit, of all the astonishing things this election cycle, the apparent popularity of Palin to Independents and Libertarians is, by far, the most perplexing.

Charles, your post is fair and I thank you for it....

2008-09-09T15:58:00.000-04:00

Charles, your post is fair and I thank you for it. However, I think (obviously) you are wrong in your analysis of which candidate will be worse for libertarian principles.

You're worrying about Al Gore and climate change? I'm worried about John McCain starting World War 3. I'm worried about the economy collapsing due to out-of-control spending. I'm worried about one of our cities getting nuked, because 4 more years of military adventurism, and I think it will happen.

That's fair, but I think you're equating a symptom with the problem in the war. "Military adventurism" may sometimes work as propaganda for terrorists to hate and attack America, but their hatred is more fundamental than that; it is a liberal fallacy that radical Islam would be a friend to America if only we would stay away.

As far as spending goes, I think Obama's position on that is clearly articulated: more, more, and more. McCain may not be much of a small government conservative; he is famously anti-pork but earmarks are a relatively small part of the budget. He is also in favor of regulations on businesses, which ties them closer to government and constricts the free market. But on taxes, he is more of a friend of libertarians; that much is clear. Obama can talk all he wants about how 85% of Americans will see a tax cut under his plan, but that means the 15% of the richest people will be taxed MORE, meaning MORE money for government to fund Obama's inevitable do-goody social schemes.

And even that ignores that with the Bush tax cuts, the federal government saw increased revenues; "the rich" made more money and thus paid more money in taxes to the federal government, despite lower tax rates.

So what might end up happening under Obama is that despite higher tax rates for "the rich," they end up paying less money in taxes because with a higher tax environment, they make less money. And since these people are the investors and employers of our nation, that means that the 85% that are paying less in taxes, will pay even less and less because they now have less money, due to the taxes on "the rich." Which means that the federal government under Obama, despite much higher taxes overall, will have much less revenue to spend on its lavish federal programs. Which means debt, poverty, and unemployment.

To our great future!

I suspect the MT numbers are from Rasmussen. They...

2008-09-09T15:24:00.000-04:00

I suspect the MT numbers are from Rasmussen. They are up on teh site, but only available to premium members.

Gallup went from +2 Obama on Saturday to +3 McCain...

2008-09-09T15:23:00.000-04:00

Gallup went from +2 Obama on Saturday to +3 McCain on Sunday...only a huge number (much larger than +5) could have made that large a swing in one day.

If the polls had been "similar" since then, today's average would now be more or less three of that huge number averaged together, which would make today's average that huge number, not merely the +5 that it is.

I take it you didn't bother to read the details of...

2008-09-09T15:16:00.000-04:00

I take it you didn't bother to read the details of Nate's post about the difficulties in extracting individual results from the trackers.

If you think that Gallup's statement about their individual results are already clearly fraudulent, then why are you even watching them anymore?

According to Gallup:"Gallup polling in recent days...

2008-09-09T15:10:00.000-04:00

According to Gallup:

"Gallup polling in recent days has been quite stable, showing McCain ahead of Obama by similar margins in each of the last four individual days of nightly tracking."

Don't expect the numbers to move much in either direction for at least a couple days.

That's nice, but numbers don't lie. If they don't move, Gallup has proven themselves either incompetent or fraudulent.