Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Senate Rankings, June 2009 Edition

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2009-10-10T08:10:01.195-04:00

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Where are your July Senate Rankings???? The latest...

2009-07-06T18:31:03.802-04:00

Where are your July Senate Rankings???? The latest they've been posted was the 10th.

Loved 538's electoral vote analysis during the Pre...

2009-06-29T05:26:45.515-04:00

Loved 538's electoral vote analysis during the Presidential election, but you are badly misreading Florida (#14 on your list).

Your backup for your statement, "The field of Democratic candidates started out fairly weak and is getting weaker." is NOT time series polling data, but merely a news article on the switching of Dan Gelber(D) from the US Senate race to the Florida Attorney General race.

Dan Gelber's switch reflects not a weakening of the field but, a consolidation of the early organizational advantages of Congressman Meek(D) who secured key union endorsements, is running a statewide petition drive to qualify for the ballot and has made astute campaign staffing decisions.

Congressman Meek's campaign manager is former Florida Democratic Party (FDP) Executive Director Ana Cruz; while his Central Florida field director is Chris Dunwody a top Obama organizer who lead astounding student turnout at the University of Central Florida (UCF).

As the initial enthusiasm for Organizing for America (OFA) fades, more Obama organizers and volunteers will join the Meek for Senate campaign.

Crist is vulnerable when his term of office is matched up against a timeline of economic statistics such as the Florida unemployment rate or home foreclosure statistics. The correlation is striking -- a high quality communications team could strike a mortal blow with those stats.

Florida in 2012 will be won on the ground, with the opening of four regional offices nearly 18 months before the election in Miami, Tampa, Orlando and Tallahassee Meek leads in the ground game.

Congressman Meek has demonstrated statewide leadership in his successful advocacy and leadership of the Class Amendment petition drive and ballot initiative. The Class Size Amendment campaign collected 500,000 signatures and over 2,500,000 votes statewide.

Crist, although currently riding high in the polls, he has no where to go but down. Although a formidable opponent, if Meek has enough resources to fund a vigorous field operation and a smart communications strategy, Crist is vulnerable.

Jim Callahan
Orlando, FL

Check Bob Krause's web site at www.krauseforiowa.c...

2009-06-22T02:13:32.955-04:00

Check Bob Krause's web site at www.krauseforiowa.com. There is a facebook and twitter link on the page. He's running against Grassley in Iowa, and starting early!

If Rubio takes down Crist then maybe there is a sh...

2009-06-13T13:39:07.866-04:00

If Rubio takes down Crist then maybe there is a shot but Meeks isn't getting within 15 points of Crist, if that.

Meeks is in a similar situation as Harold Ford Jr.
Ford Jr came close to winning the 2006 TN US Senate Race because 2006 was a pro Democratic Year but TN was a red state and the Republican Nominee Bob Corker was more moderate than Ed Bryant and Van Hilleary. If Harold Ford decided to run for the US Senate in 2002 when Lamar Alexander decided to run for the US Senate. Ford would have lost to Alexander by a landslide margin- similar to Meek loosing to Crist by a 60-40 margin or Alan Wheat losing to John Ashcroft during the 1994 MO US Senate Race.

OrlandoJDR, As an Orlando Democrat myself, I ...

2009-06-11T14:35:03.826-04:00

OrlandoJDR,

As an Orlando Democrat myself, I must note that I am certainly hopeful that your assessments are correct though both my experience and analysis lead me to the conclusion that your statements are more aspirational than factual.

I think Meeks is a decent candidate but assuming an African American turnout anywhere near 2008 I think is unlikely without Obama on the ticket. Meeks is a nice candidate but he is no Obama. In a state with dominant Republican margins in both legislative bodies I think any belief that a young state rep who has never faced a contested election is going to take down the Republican machine -- especially if Crist wins the nomination is somewhat pie in the sky stuff. If Rubio takes down Crist then maybe there is a shot but Meeks isn't getting within 15 points of Crist, if that.

i'm from ohio, so maybe i'm biased, but it should ...

2009-06-07T13:56:57.987-04:00

i'm from ohio, so maybe i'm biased, but it should be third...there's wide spread discontent for anyone with an "r" behind their name 'round here, while i don't see KY or CN changing parties..[candidates, maybe, in KY...]...my sense is that the best case outcome for the dems would be a two seat pick-up

Michel- I don't think Crist is as popular among De...

2009-06-04T09:43:23.579-04:00

Michel-
I don't think Crist is as popular among Democrats and Independents as he once was. He's certainly a strong candidate, but I think the changing demographics of Florida hold out hope for Dems. Last election the Dems did a great job in votor regirstration and there was a huge swing in voting from Republicans to Democrats. Add to that the fact that the State budget is in shambles (and we have a Republican dominated legislature) and is cutting schools and services, but giving developers breaks (despite the fact that overdevelopment is one of our biggest economic challenges) - my bet is people are going to look to see what leadership he offered and find none. Further, insurance premiums are going to shoot through the roof next year - despite his supposed taking action to stop that. If a hurricane hits, the impact on the State budget and insurance rates will be mind-bogglingly catastrophic.

No doubt, though, Crist is genial and generally likeable. But, at the end of the day, my impression is that his support among Dems and Independents is pretty thin and can be pulled away by a strong Dem challenger. Meek matches Crist in geniality - if he can bring Dems home and pull in independents (which make up an ever-increasing part of our electorate), I think he's got a pretty good shot.

As a longtime Democrat, I can't help but hope that...

2009-06-03T16:43:45.815-04:00

As a longtime Democrat, I can't help but hope that we "lose" Reid.

It would be worth one vote to get another shot at some leadership.

OrlandoJDR: You don't believe that Crist will get...

2009-06-02T20:07:42.420-04:00

OrlandoJDR:

You don't believe that Crist will get enough votes from Democratic and independent fans to make up for however many far-right folks choose to stay home or vote for a third-party candidate (are there any, by the way)?

I believe I read on Swingstate that Roy Cooper sim...

2009-06-02T20:05:25.249-04:00

I believe I read on Swingstate that Roy Cooper simply doesn't want to move from North Carolina until his youngest children are in college. According to his campaign site, his youngest, Claire, is now 13, so if that's the real reason, give him about 5 years. Being committed to one's family is not stupid and something we should all respect.

On the Florida Senate Seat, I think the analysis i...

2009-06-02T17:17:21.664-04:00

On the Florida Senate Seat, I think the analysis is a bit off. As a Floridian in the midst of it, Dan Gelber's dropping is not a sign of Dem weakness but of frontrunner Kendrick Meek's strength. He's already been endorsed by Bill Clinton and posted some impressive fundraising numbers. I think Gelber getting out of the race clears the decks for Meek to run unoppoed (another candidate is but token opposition). Meek is African-American and a great public speaker who Obama used as a proxy a good bit (and thus owes some support).

Dems would be smart to support Meek; if he can inspire the African American vote to turn out in numbers greater than usual (a la Obama) then he helps all the downticket races - including Sink for governor (who has a great shot).

As to Crist and Rubio - it's going to be a bloodbath. If Rubio wins, he may be too conservative for the general electorate (Florida gets bluer every day). If Crist wins, many hard-right Republicans may not vote for him to avoid giving him a national platform where he could eventually run for President. Overall, I think a much tighter race than this analysis allows.

prorridgegun: I don't like it, but I agree 100% wi...

2009-06-02T14:52:58.468-04:00

prorridgegun: I don't like it, but I agree 100% with clearing the field for Gillibrand. If Dems had a deep bench in New Yorkto pick from I'd be all for a primary.

There were several good candidates that could have challenged Gillibrand in a primary. Just because they don't have national recognition doesn't mean that NY didn't have a deep bench here.

The issue, though, is pretty moot at this point.

juvanya: I'm going to assume here to give you the ...

2009-06-01T23:55:50.880-04:00

juvanya: I'm going to assume here to give you the benefit of the doubt you mean a 70-30 majority, not a majority by 70 seats (which would be 85-15), but even so, I think this is just a pipe dream (as much as I'd like to see it). For this to happen even with every democratic seat up for grabs staying democratic, the democrats would have to win 10 seats that are currently republican up for grabs.

The currently GOP seats up for election are
MO,NH,KY,OH,NC,TX,LA,FL,IA,GA,OK,AZ,KS,AK,SC,SD,AL, and UT. Granted that there are 18 GOP seats up for election, but I'd guess that only maybe 9 or 10 could even be competitive. There is no chance of a democrat winning in Utah or Oklahoma (for example) pretty much no matter what happens between now and 2010. Frankly if the Senate gets to even something like 63 or 64 democratic seats I think that will be enough to deal with most issues.

When the economy recovers by the year's end, there...

2009-06-01T22:51:02.500-04:00

When the economy recovers by the year's end, there will be a 70-seat majority.

Nate's Senate rankings are a good guide to how the...

2009-06-01T20:39:02.516-04:00

Nate's Senate rankings are a good guide to how the pendulum swings back in politics (a law that most readers of this site are eager to deny, as we are now supposedly a permanent left wing country). Four of the top eight rankings are now Blue, and six of the top twelve. And this is with, arguably, a bit of pro-Dem spin fron Silver. And bear in mind that the landscape is most bleak for the GOP in the Senate, for various largely contingent reasons. Their prospects in Gov and Rep races is better. If the GOP were to hold steady or pick up one/two seats in the Senate in 2012, that would portend a much better showing in the House and statehouses. State level dynamics are also setting up well for them in places like California, NY, NJ, IL, maybe even MA.

Admit it Dems: the GOP is doing better at recruiting candidates than you had hoped (with the exception of losing Ridge). When you are a minority, it makes the move to the center easier (as its necessary for survival). A large majority (like the Dems now have) pulls you toward the left or right margin (because your victories supposedly "vindicate" your ideology). Electoral democracy is self-correcting in that way. I would be very surprised if the Democractic Party isn't at its high water mark for their current high tide. Gravity will set in as they are forced to govern in difficult times with a party that encompasses everyone from Heath Shuler to Maxine Waters. These dynamics will aid the "Whig's" comeback. Nate's Senate rankings, which have improved markedly for the GOP only three months into Obama's first term and basically during his honeymoon, drive this point home.

Re Nevada: that poll is useless (as are almost all...

2009-06-01T20:35:08.385-04:00

Re Nevada: that poll is useless (as are almost all polls reported by the Las Vegas Review Journal.) It had small numbers (650 or so) and asked the most ambiguous of questions to get an answer everyone already knew: Nevadans have never liked Harry Reid very much. surprise, surprise. the question is whether they will like him more than any right winger the Repubs can find to run against him.
Dean Heller's last two congressional races in a VERY conservative district have both been fairly to quite competitive so I don't see him as much of a threat. Obama, surprisingly, won NV in a walk and with him campaigning here for Reid I don't see a problem with him winning re-election. Might not be by an over-whelming margin (it seldom is for Reid), but he'll win, unless, as the saying goes, he gets caught with a dead girl or a live boy.....
And since when has Specter been a "moderate democrat"? that's laughable. As Sestak pointed out on Hardball on Monday, Specter supported ALL the conservatives on the Supreme Court, Gulf War II, AND voted against Obama's budget. I don't even live in PA anymore and I'll prob'ly give money to Sestak if he decides to run.

Hate to say this but Nichlemn makes a good point. ...

2009-06-01T20:04:18.786-04:00

Hate to say this but Nichlemn makes a good point. Nobody thinks "that guy is a great representitive but I would never want him to be a senator." You like a candidate or you dont. Plus its not like being a senator takes any more experience/qualifications than being a representitive.

"It's unthinkable that Dems could lose this seat [...

2009-06-01T19:23:36.352-04:00

"It's unthinkable that Dems could lose this seat [Delaware]"

Why not? Castle represents the exact same constituents in the House and has won by comfortable margins for years. Not all statewide offices are equivalent, but At-large Rep and Senator are pretty close. What sort of voters will think "Yeah, I want Michael Castle as my Representative, but no way do I want him as my Senator"?

@Cricket: Casual Observer answered your question ...

2009-06-01T17:52:39.896-04:00

@Cricket: Casual Observer answered your question in a post where he said, "Wake me up when..." He has been sleep-posting, which explains a great deal.

> Charles, Jim Bunning is very popular with Kentuc...

2009-06-01T17:49:27.497-04:00

> Charles, Jim Bunning is very popular with Kentucky social conservatives and with good reason. The man has one of the most conservative voting records in the Senate. It would be difficult to primary him for that reason.

Really? Wow. But surely they could find a more effective messenger/champion for their cause?

I trust there are tons of very conservative GOP politicians in KY. Why stick to one who's an electoral liability and is making a fool of himself on top of that?

I don't understand that. I wouldn't back a lame horse even if it had one lots of Kentucky Derbys in the past...

If I were a KY conservative stalwart I'd go for someone younger, who can sell the right-wing agenda with a smile. Someone who doesn't scare off moderates while nonetheless ceding no ideological ground. That'd be my candidate.

Charles, Jim Bunning is very popular with Kentucky...

2009-06-01T16:39:03.344-04:00

Charles, Jim Bunning is very popular with Kentucky social conservatives and with good reason. The man has one of the most conservative voting records in the Senate. It would be difficult to primary him for that reason.

I really wonder about Bunning. Why are Cornyn & Co...

2009-06-01T16:14:51.757-04:00

I really wonder about Bunning. Why are Cornyn & Co so anxious he does not run?

Is he that tough to beat in a GOP primary? Considering that he's become such a laughing-stock in many circles, I would have thought he'd have nearly as little a chance of winning the GOP primary as Burris winning the Dem primary in IL.

I just don't know how those Republican Kentuckians tick. Does anyone have a handle on this?

Isn't the filibuster calculation that you say Hutc...

2009-06-01T16:01:52.826-04:00

Isn't the filibuster calculation that you say Hutchison is making in Texas flawed? By my calculation, until Franken is seated a Hutchison resignation would drop the total number of sitting Senators to 98, and also drop the number needed to defeat a filibuster from 60 to 59. This scenario would make the Democrat's ability to invoke closure that much easier until a Republican replacement for Hutchison is appointed.

Am I wrong about this?

Alexi Giannoulias will get the Illinois senate sea...

2009-06-01T15:41:16.147-04:00

Alexi Giannoulias will get the Illinois senate seat. Great canidate and Obama will endorse him for sure. That's his basketball buddy.

Cooper is a retard for not running....the other dem canidates are low tier.

Didnt Bunning say he was gonna endorse another republican for the primary, what happened to that? He change his mind. He's screwed if he really does run for re-eleciton. Could he lose a republican primary? I dont think anyone here has mentioned that possibility.

As for Florida Nate is right on the money when he says dems should focus on Alex Sink winning the gubernatorial race. Alex sink as governor + Obama's increasing popularity with hispanics...cubins especially because of Obama's ease on restrictions...could give obama a serious advantage in Florida. Republicans CAN'T beat Obama if he wins Florida....IMPOSSIBLE.