Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Is 2118 the Magic Number?

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2009-10-09T04:11:40.146-04:00

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2009-09-09T23:33:46.260-04:00

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2009-03-11T04:41:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-11T04:41:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-12T00:25:00.000-05:00

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2009-02-08T23:13:00.000-05:00

50% + .5 of total delegates?50% + .5 of total vote...

2008-06-02T16:42:00.000-04:00

50% + .5 of total delegates?
50% + .5 of total votes?
50% + .5 of total votes cast (the guys still in the bar who forgot to give proxy and miss the vote)?

The number of total delegates will be different and greater than the number total votes.

All MI, FL delegates are seated (delegate count +1 for each), but they will have half vote (vote count + 1/2 for each)

Hello, Sean!Here's another way to try to puzzle ou...

2008-06-01T19:59:00.000-04:00

Hello, Sean!

Here's another way to try to puzzle out the numbers: Add up MSNBC'S counts.

As of 6:06, they'd posted these counts:

Obama pledged 1727
Clinton pledged 1622
Obama super 329
Clinton 293
Obama from Edwards 16.5
Unallocated Puerto rico 5
Undecided pledged 31
Undecided supers 201.5

That adds up to 4,225.

Eight more are Edwards delegates who have not endorsed Obama, based on MSNBC's count at www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21660914. They show Edwards having won 25, but that's based on listing Florida as 7, which is clearly rounded up from the 13 he won being halved yesterday to 6.5. Take 24.5, and subtract the 16.5 they count as having moved to Obama, and that's the eight.

But that's still only 4,233, and it still only yields a magic number of 2,117.

Find one more, and 2,117.5 needed could round to 2,118.

Find two, and 2,118 would be right without rounding.

But I'm stumped on where the one or two could come from.

FYI: this isn't a problem that appeared yesterday. A couple of days after Edwards endorsed, I realized that I got one total by adding up all the kinds of delegates MSNBC listed, and a number two higher if I worked out what total made 2,026 a majority.

"To me the question remains as to whether Clinton ...

2008-06-01T15:14:00.000-04:00

"To me the question remains as to whether Clinton is going to decide to destroy the Democratic Party to stoke her ambition."

We already know the answer to that one. She has ALREADY decided to destroy the Democratic Party, and is ALREADY doing everything she can to do so. The "count every vote" meme (that she adopted only AFTER noticing how far behind she was; not a peep from her when the outlaw states were originally stripped of their delegates, except to say that they "wouldn't count for anything") has leaked its poison into her most diehard supporters.

An impeachment drive in New York needs to begin on Nov 6, no matter who wins the presidency.

I cannot wait for Clinton to finally be gone. I re...

2008-06-01T13:27:00.000-04:00

I cannot wait for Clinton to finally be gone. I really hope PR is close with low turnout today. Not that it really matters - its a perception thing. We don't need another 30%+ Clinton win (like WV & Kentucky) to get the Clinton supporters all up in a tizzy right as things are finally being concluded.

All that crappin' around for a difference of one d...

2008-06-01T12:43:00.000-04:00

All that crappin' around for a difference of one delegate? God, I hope this thing doesn't come down to one delegate. By the way, a FL or MI superdelegate is actually a half a delegate under the compromise.

To me the question remains as to whether Clinton is going to decide to destroy the Democratic Party to stoke her ambition. We await the reckless queen's decision.

Probably this is Sean Forman.I googled him and Nat...

2008-06-01T12:02:00.000-04:00

Probably this is Sean Forman.
I googled him and Nate and there is a blog post by Sean Forman with the nickname "Sean".
And he knows Nate (probably all baseball-stats-junkies do):
"As part of the campaign, I was asked to write text (along with Nate Silver over at BP) about the 1977 Yankees"

Obama wraps this up Tuesday night. McCain we are c...

2008-06-01T11:54:00.000-04:00

Obama wraps this up Tuesday night. McCain we are comng for you next.

Sean Forman?!If so, this is like the internet base...

2008-06-01T11:37:00.000-04:00

Sean Forman?!

If so, this is like the internet baseball stats all-stars on politics.

Anyone else hoping that Obama releases 30 or so superdelegates before the votes come in on Tuesday so that the clinching delegates are pledged ones from SD and Montana?

I don´t want to steal 538.com any readers.They are...

2008-06-01T10:27:00.000-04:00

I don´t want to steal 538.com any readers.
They are doing a much better job as I ever could. It´s just that I can publish some of my results in the comments- they get read here also.

(And my english is not good enough for running a site in english- nor would my articles have the same style as Poblanos if I had to write in a foreign language.)

Ramsus, you're doing a lot of good work, why not c...

2008-06-01T10:23:00.000-04:00

Ramsus, you're doing a lot of good work, why not create a new site?

I'd read.

FYI, 2117 is not the magic number, because the def...

2008-06-01T10:02:00.000-04:00

FYI, 2117 is not the magic number, because the definition of a magic number (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magic_number_(sports)) is the number of delegates needed to REACH 2117. Currently, the magic number is somewhere in the 64-66 range, depending upon whose count you trust the most.

There is also something I've seen called the "Huck number", which is the number of delegates that are needed to declare before a candidate is mathematically ELIMINATED from the contest (named after Huckabee, when he was still running for prez at the time McCain clinched the nomination). I saw one estimate that Clinton's Huck number was 51, at which point she would be "hucked".

Here is some analysis I ever wanted to do:I. Top 1...

2008-06-01T08:42:00.000-04:00

Here is some analysis I ever wanted to do:

I. Top 10 Swing States by Percentage of Elections where Obama gets between 47.5 and 52.5% of the Two-Way-Vote:

OH 44,1
NV 43,7
NH 43,7
MI 43,6
NM 42,9
WI 42,8
VA 42,7
CO 42,1
IN 40,9
PA 40,3

II.
Correlation between Pennsylvania and Ohio.
My Win% for Ohio is actually 48.5%, for Pennsylvania 66.5%.

But if you only look at the elections where Obama wins Pennsylvania, his OH Win% moves up to 67.1%.
And if only those elections are counted, where Obama loses Ohio, his Pennsylvania WIn Percentage goes down to 51.9%.

Finally, here is my EV-distribution chart (a simple Excel-Chart, not so beautiful as the 538 charts)

http://img142.imageshack.us/my.php?image=unbenanntwd2.png

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/rubbish.phpI couldn´...

2008-06-01T08:04:00.000-04:00

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/rubbish.php

I couldn´t add anything

Polling in America is quite odd. In Britian, sampl...

2008-06-01T07:01:00.000-04:00

Polling in America is quite odd. In Britian, sample sizes are usually above 1,000 but in America they are usually only 600 people, even thought there are far more voters. Why is this?

Also, maybe this is just the first time I'm notici...

2008-06-01T06:05:00.000-04:00

Also, maybe this is just the first time I'm noticing it, but Obama is more dependent on winning Ohio in the GE than Clinton is on winning Florida. I find that worrying given last time's controversies and the fact that they never were resolved conclusively or the potential for abuse remedied.

Seriously, there are thousands of Nates. There is...

2008-06-01T05:59:00.000-04:00

Seriously, there are thousands of Nates. There is only one Poblano.

I think it WAS royal. We (the blog author) think, ...

2008-06-01T05:02:00.000-04:00

I think it WAS royal. We (the blog author) think, that...
But maybe Poblano (I like that name better than Nate^^ Nate is a cool "real" name, but Poblano really rocks.) found a co-author now.

Why did Obama get such a bump in West Virginia? He had 4-5% Wins before, and is now at 20%. I guess Wyoming caused that, but he did not even get such a bump in Wyoming from the DailyKos poll, so why in West Virginia?

2nd
FInally I improved my copy of your spreadsheet. My macro now just runs 10 minutes instead of 2 hours,and I am able to track single runs and the Electoral Vote Distribution.
And a sort of Swing State Analysis, but that works different than yours. I just track how often the Democrat gets less then 52.5 and more than 47.5 percent of the two-way-vote.

I was wondering who this mystical "we" was. Glad ...

2008-06-01T04:38:00.000-04:00

I was wondering who this mystical "we" was. Glad to know it wasn't royal, but I'm still wondering...

Who the hell is Sean?

2008-06-01T04:35:00.000-04:00

Who the hell is Sean?