Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Today's Polls, 9/1

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2009-03-12T01:46:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-12T01:46:00.000-04:00

Well, this is probably early, since today's pollin...

2008-09-02T13:11:00.000-04:00

Well, this is probably early, since today's polling post hasn't come out, but this is the single best set of national polls I have seen for Obama yet. Either a delayed post-convention bounce or a visceral reaction AGAINST the Palin pick. I believe that is the largest Rasmussen gap ever, and the first time 2 polls on the same day have Obama at 50% or more, and the largest RCP gap I have seen yet. I am not saying it holds, and expect it to close down to 3-4 points after the GOP convention, but let's face it, 6% nationally is a blowout. Your thoughts, Peter Kent?

National Rasmussen Tracking Obama 51, McCain 45 Obama +6
National USA Today/Gallup* Obama 50, McCain 43 Obama +7
National Hotline/FD Obama 48, McCain 39 Obama +9
National CBS News Obama 48, McCain 40 Obama +8

Here is what Obama really thinks about equal pay.....

2008-09-02T11:50:00.000-04:00

Here is what Obama really thinks about equal pay...

"On average, women working in Obama’s Senate office were paid at least $6,000 below the average man working for the Illinois senator . . . . Of the five people in Obama’s Senate office who were paid $100,000 or more on an annual basis, only one – Obama’s administrative manager – was a woman.”

Obama refused to give women a high salary job...

Hope-o-crisy.

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@ midpointman

Ever heard of spurious relationships? What makes you think that the difference in salary paid to Obama's staff men and women is due to "hypocrisy". You just don't get it. It's not about paying women the same as men, it's about paying women the same as men for the SAME WORK. So if you can't show that the men working for Obama did the same work as women and can't show whether the men have more years of experience you can't say a thing about Obama's views on equal pay.

Midpointman:I'm sorry but your response was a non-...

2008-09-02T02:24:00.000-04:00

Midpointman:

I'm sorry but your response was a non-starter:

1. You didn't post the link to the spot where FactCheck supposedly reamed Obama. I am therefore concluding that you lied about it.

2. You posted a link that only led to a one-paragraph abtradct of an article. The abstract merely stated that selection of major accounted for up to 95% of the geneder diffference. It made no mention of which direction that was. I didn't purchase the right to read the full article, which costs $17.00 for non-subscribers. Did you? You didn't answer that, did you?

3. You cited the article for the proposition that there was no longer a gender difference in pay. The article dealt only with recent college graduates, so it exlcuded people over 25 and non college graduates.

Even if the article does state that recent women graduates get higher pay than recent male college graduates, it doesn't stand for the proposition you cited it for. It might apply to 5% of the workforce and makes a mockery of your post. Hence my calling you a fraud.

To Humanist et al. playing with 'several' solution...

2008-09-02T00:51:00.000-04:00

To Humanist et al. playing with 'several' solutions for the dailies from the 3-day averages.

There are actually an infinite number of solutions. Adding ANY function with mean zero and period 3 has ZERO effect on the 3-day averages. There are an infinite number of such functions, even restricted to the integers. However, since 3 and 7 are relatively prime, and since we have over 100 days of data, it is safe to about 1% accuracy to assume that these periodic components are zero. That allows the dailies to be extracted by algebra./mbw

Sarah Pallin's hero Pat Buchanan's old boss Richar...

2008-09-01T23:19:00.000-04:00

Sarah Pallin's hero Pat Buchanan's old boss Richard Nixon had to give the Checkers speech. Does Sarah Pallin have to give the Bristol speech.

Yup, she might do ok in the debate. But she will ...

2008-09-01T23:06:00.000-04:00

Yup, she might do ok in the debate. But she will be asked about her nutball positions, the AIP, and all the rest and she won't bring the independent women she was hired to bring.

It's all an expectations game in the end. Palin co...

2008-09-01T22:51:00.000-04:00

It's all an expectations game in the end. Palin could just as well be preparing night and day to catch up on all foreign affairs issues right now and if she comes across as better than the average high school kid she might have beaten the low expectations that are now being attributed to her chances at the VP debate.

Palin, the choice pales in comparison to Biden.She...

2008-09-01T22:45:00.000-04:00

Palin, the choice pales in comparison to Biden.

She is still on the ticket!!! Hooraty for stupidity.

@midpointmanThe decision to have a Down's baby is ...

2008-09-01T22:42:00.000-04:00

@midpointman

The decision to have a Down's baby is courageous, many would not.
------
How is it courageous? She likely is behind her decision wholeheartedly but it's not about courage. She would be dead, absolutely dead and buried politically if she stepped in to an abortion clinic to have an abortion after all expressed views on abortion. There is no way that the Governor of the state would manage to have an abortion in secret so what are we talking about? It was either having a Down baby and be true to her expressed beliefs and stay in office (which viewpoint weighed more in her decision is up for debate but not really relevant) OR be the laughing stock of the Democratic party, the pariah of the Republican party and have no political future what so ever.

Here in Florida, this is the time of year that the...

2008-09-01T22:41:00.000-04:00

Here in Florida, this is the time of year that the Weather Channel ratings soar. No time to answer the telephone about polls when the tropical update is on.

At least we don't have any local branches of the Alaska Independence Party down here.

I am a firm democrat, and am loyal to my party. Gi...

2008-09-01T22:23:00.001-04:00

I am a firm democrat, and am loyal to my party. Given that, I have respect in John McCain. I'd not vote for him. He is a very smart man. My problem is, I would not want a woman, who has a 17 year old daughter, who obviously did not practice safe sex, in a leading country position.
Sex ed? Teen agers know where and how babies get here. That's silly to say they don't, this is 2008. Given the math,that was creatively done at the beginning of this blog, I'd belive what I read about the 4 month old. I was very put off, over the fact that Mrs. Palin left her baby on the bus with her daughter, while she went and spoke yesterday. That made my skin crawl.
This woman lives in the dark ages. How sad it would be if this awful woman ruined John McCain's career, cause he wasn't told these things before he chose her. While I donot want him to be the president, The outcome of this might be very horrible.
Also, might I add: the hurricanes are really bad. This puts her daughter's pregnancy under the carpet. We must not forget this woman's actions, nor her daughter's.

SUBthat was funny !I did not know he was a POW...

2008-09-01T22:23:00.000-04:00

SUB

that was funny !

I did not know he was a POW...

JOSHUAI live north of the cape & south of Dayona i...

2008-09-01T22:21:00.001-04:00

JOSHUA

I live north of the cape & south of Dayona in central FL.

I am monitoring the storma that are lined up across the atlantic constantly - even at this moment.

Every storm tracker cone has the outside of Hanna as generally headed toward Savannah-Charleston with the left side from the cape to north carolina on the right.

IF the HIGH pressure zone shifts or dissipates in the next 2 days, then the 'cane will slide left into FL on Thursday.

As GUSTAV falls apart, that shift to the left for Hanna becomes a stronger possibility.

But the odds at the moment are still that it will strike the carolinas head on Fri or Sat.

However, all that energy will smack the northern coastal areas of FL Thursday & Frioday even if it doesn't make landfall here.

As Gustav shows, if evacs are needed you must start at least 2 days out or it is too late to be effective to move large populations.

We will all know better by this time tomorrow night. But the is unfortunately a pretty good chance that Hanna will slide over into FL by Thursday as it stands now.

Remember, several days ago they thought this storm was headed to Cuba or would fall apart & so it would miss the Bahamas. Now the Bahamas are in harms way. Then Hanna turned from S to NE & is still turning & forming tonight.

This is gonna be a big 'cane month it would appear with IKE coming right behind currently headed to So FL then maybe into the gulf...

"hey did you know he was a POW ???"I had not heard...

2008-09-01T22:21:00.000-04:00

"hey did you know he was a POW ???"

I had not heard that DCM. I think McCain should find a way to work that into his campaign. I mean he never mentions it, nor do any of his surrogates or supporters. He really needs to find a way to get that story out.

changing your story now midpoint? I thought you sa...

2008-09-01T22:19:00.001-04:00

changing your story now midpoint? I thought you said we haven't been getting warmer the last 10 years - are you dropping that now? As for 'hype' ... how about this gallup poll ...

http://media.gallup.com/poll/graphs/042108GlobalWarming5_5390fcbswof3.gif

between worry a great deal and worry a fair amount, you have 66%.

and if you talk about the environment as a whole, you get ...

http://media.gallup.com/poll/graphs/042108GlobalWarming7_do389csa0p2.gif

86% of people think we should take more action to protect the environment.

My friends, DCM in FL is right. We need to remembe...

2008-09-01T22:19:00.000-04:00

My friends, DCM in FL is right. We need to remember that, for 5 and a half years, McCain was forced to live completely without Rovian apparatchiks and Party functionaries of any sort!

Those were hard times. These days, even doing something as simple as organizing a VP vetting team brings back bad memories. Enhanced interrogation. No Rovian apparatchiks of any sort!

People, this man has to walk a fine line.He was a POW, my friends. If, at times, he eschews all semblance of due process and responsibility, it's because he was a POW.

"While 61% of Americans say the effects of global ...

2008-09-01T22:17:00.001-04:00

"While 61% of Americans say the effects of global warming have already begun, just a little more than a third say they worry about it a great deal, a percentage that is roughly the same as the one Gallup measured 19 years ago."

Once again, I state that you have nor proven your assertion that "most Americans do not believe the global warning hype". On the contrary, you have proved by posting this that you were, in fact in error as 61% is a strong majority.

Henceforth, you are officially an "ass-talker" in my eyes.

Nixon would have not only thrown her under the bus...

2008-09-01T22:17:00.000-04:00

Nixon would have not only thrown her under the bus by now, he would have personally run over her with the bus, get out, say it was an accident and cry over the corpse in front of the media.

VC:Never fear -- she is far better than Dick Nixon...

2008-09-01T22:12:00.001-04:00

VC:

Never fear -- she is far better than Dick Nixon, much more authentic and likeable.

"Vegetarian": Ancient Eskimo word for man who ia poor hunter.

Todd - We all agree that Global Warming is real.It...

2008-09-01T22:12:00.000-04:00

Todd -

We all agree that Global Warming is real.

It has gotten hotter than say 50 years ago.

The "hype" is that we are all doomed...and sooner than we think.

Clearly not too many believe that.

Clearly not too many think the world is in deep danger, as Al Gore does.

So you see this poll as evidence that we all DO believe the hype, then?

Saying Global Warming is happening is not the same as believing we are all doomed because of it.

Even the right agrees it has gotten warmer, they just disagree on the mix of causes.

It is probably partially man-made, but the latest IPCC estimates are very tame as to sea level rise.

Even the IPCC no longer believes the hype.

PETEgod bless you, but really. I guess you must h...

2008-09-01T22:11:00.000-04:00

PETE

god bless you, but really.

I guess you must have to earn your GOPer blogger points since you are back with the silly Obama brother concerns....

that is just so sad & pathetic !

hope you had a nice holiday w/e anyway. Hi to Sarah P. too, she needs your help bigtime now...

Pete kent said " I think that Barack’s brother is ...

2008-09-01T22:10:00.001-04:00

Pete kent said " I think that Barack’s brother is one of the saddest stories of the campaign. I saw the CNN interview and it showed the young man's pride in his half brother, but there was no question that there has been no personal or emotional connection between the two.

In the famous magazine issue the brother did insist that he was very poor and forced to live by his fists, at which he said he was very good.

I think this story says nothing more than that Barack Obama has no time for his family."

__________________________________

I wonder what Cindy McCain's disinherited sister thinks of this story? How is there personal connection.

This is not a winner for your candidate. Cindy says she is an only child, but she has an older sister from her father's first marriage who got nothing from her father. Where would Cindy be without daddy's money? Probably not married to McCain.

umm, well it's changed accuweather has pushed it u...

2008-09-01T22:10:00.000-04:00

umm, well it's changed accuweather has pushed it up to friday afternoon sometime and it wont be anywhere close to hitting FL, it show's it's going to be hitting SC well after the convention.