Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Does History Dictate That New Jersey and Virginia ...

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2009-10-10T08:05:51.789-04:00

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NJ has some pretty red sections, but also pretty b...

2009-06-07T20:56:21.084-04:00

NJ has some pretty red sections, but also pretty blue ones too. I live in a county that Obama did not carry, and we have several small municipalities (many of which are seasonal communities).

Corzine is not my favorite, but he's trying to clean up a huge mess he inherited. I will vote for him and already have started to work on his campaign, because Chrisite is NOT a moderate. He's a Bush prosecutor who kept his job.

Jerry said... There are even several "donut hole"...

2009-06-04T14:35:26.917-04:00

Jerry said...

There are even several "donut hole" towns where the entire town is surrounded by another town!

Many folks talk about consolidating municipalities but it never seems to get anywhere. Consolidation referenda fail on a pretty regular basis.

This is so true. I live near two such setups: Jamesburg and Metuchen. There might even be others I don't know of. And I agree it pretty much comes down to not wanting to be controlled by cities, but it's not always cities.

We really need a governor that has the balls to say: "You either reorganize or you lose all funds." And if the state legislature doesn't back him, he'll veto everything. Or even just call for a new constitution that is county-based. Both will work.

@Dave: Yes, it was controlled by the Republicans in the 90s, as well as the House delegation.

And as I said earlier, NJ isn't quite as blue as it seems. Yes, we do manage to pass "liberal" laws like ridiculously heavy gun control, regulations, and other stuff. However, the north, west, and south are pretty solid red. (Anything but the central region, Camden, and Newark)

As another poster mentioned, I am glad to see an i...

2009-06-04T09:46:07.882-04:00

As another poster mentioned, I am glad to see an item here about the NJ and VA governor races. I also thank the many posters here who posted information I had been wondering about, saving the time and effort of looking it up.

NJ - First, a question. Wasn't NJ's state legislature controlled by the GOP for a few years in the 1990s? In the span of just a few years, both houses slipped to the Dems along the with governor's office. Didn't McGreevey have coattails in 2001 by taking the remaining state house to the Dems?

And Whitman's 1993 win over Florio was also a close one, wasn't it?

New Jersey is a pretty solid blue state, based on my own 7-point scale using the guv, U.S. Senators, prez vote, control of state legislative chambers, and % of U.S. House delegation. NJ scores a 6.62 out of 7.

If Christie can portray himself as a Whitman Republican, he can win. If he is more like a Bret Schundler Republican, he will lose.

VA - According to my aforementioned scale, VA has been one of the fastest moving (towards the Dems) states in the country, along with Colorado and New Hampshire. VA has recently flipped its state senate (sorta), both U.S. Senate seats, 3 U.S. House seats, and its prez vote.

With its unique one-term limit for governor, there is no incumbency advantage. It will be interesting to see if it continues its 20-year trend of being opposite to the prez's party.

NJ has more taxing authorities than Texas. It has...

2009-06-04T08:23:48.617-04:00

NJ has more taxing authorities than Texas.

It has more school districts (and school boards, administrators, etc) than it does municipalities... and there are 566 municipalities in NJ.

There are even several "donut hole" towns where the entire town is surrounded by another town!

Many folks talk about consolidating municipalities but it never seems to get anywhere. Consolidation referenda fail on a pretty regular basis.

I suspect that one thing that stands in the way of forced consolidations is who you might end up consolidated with. Nobody in a suburb of a city in NJ (think Newark, Patterson, Camden) wants to be bundled in with, outnumbered by, and controlled by that city.

New Jersey is one of the most liberal states in th...

2009-06-03T23:44:15.625-04:00

New Jersey is one of the most liberal states in the union yet has no problem voting for Republicans in-state.

I maintain that most New Jerseyans haven't yet seen Christie. When they do his poll ratings will drop. He also will not be able to compete with Corzine financially, who will have a field day with Christie's lack of experience, lack of planning, and some questionable integrity issues. And he WILL hammer these every single day all summer long. It will be a slaughter.

As for Whitman, keep in mind she ran against Jim Florio in 1993, New Jersey's most hated governor in history (even more than Corzine). And even in that race, he lost be less than 1% of the vote.

I don't think Corzine has this in the bag. I think his biggest issue is going to be getting Democrats out to vote, because many are planning on sitting out this election and Corzine can't afford that. But he's definitely going to put up a great fight and in the end I think if he can connect with voters he will beat out Christie, albeit by a small margin.

Oh another note. Locally, NJ isn't as blue as some...

2009-06-03T22:48:16.303-04:00

Oh another note. Locally, NJ isn't as blue as some people think. A lot of the state is like upstate NY and although my county and town have a strong Democratic machine, the boroughs I mentioned above that seceded are white, old, and conservative.

If Corzine can drive 2008-like turnout he'll win. Otherwise, it's Christie. He needs to like bow down to "minorities" or try hard to explain what went wrong (which I doubt people will buy because American are fickle).

Damn comment didn't post at first cause I keep get...

2009-06-03T22:44:42.562-04:00

Damn comment didn't post at first cause I keep getting logged out.

Anyway, good to see my state getting a mention on 538. :)

Yesterday, I temporarily became a Republican so I could "sabotage" the Republican primary by voting for Lonegan.

I honestly have no idea how the heck Corzine expects to win. He already tried to get Newark mayor Cory Booker (watch for him in 2013) to be Lt. Gov, but Booker essentially said lolno. I'm not convinced it's his fault, but the state has crashed under Corzine. As Tom said and I have read, we have a habit of Republican messes that Democrats struggle to clean up. Not to mention there is a lot of corruption and gimmes (which aren't unfair, but need to be reorganized).

Corzine is down by 10 or so and even though it's 5 months away, I really don't see how he can possibly win. People are fed up with him (whether it's his fault is irrelevant; the angry mob wants a head) and have taken kindly to the corruption crusher Christie.

Personally, I'm undecided and may not know who I vote for until I press a button on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November.

As for Lt. Gov., it's selected like the VP. The position is constitutionally useless because we still have the Secretary of State and other positions. So now, in good ole NJ fashion, we'll be paying $100,000 a year for a crown prince.

In all reality we need a new constitution. As Tom said, we have a huge municipal problem that people from other states may find bizarre. Almost every single municipality has its own police force and school board. Even tiny little boroughs of 5000. One such borough has two cops during the week and contracts from my town the rest of the time. Another borough sends its high school students right through my town to a borough on the other side.

These boroughs basically all seceded back in the late 1800s and early 1900s during a phase called the Borough Bonanza or something. It became chic for neighborhoods to secede from big towns and now we're stuck with this selfish mess.

We could probably save the state government if we consolidated all these municipal things into county or at least multi-town regions. Corzine attempted to resolve this by cutting money from towns that don't give up some "home rule". The small towns had a fit and the proposal died in the somewhat corrupt legislature. That happened a lot with Corzine now that I think of it. He attempted to clean up a lot, but the legislature was like haha no GTFO.

I wonder if Christie could take them on. The legislature is gonna stay Democratic, so we'd be bipartisan. I have a feeling he'd be forced to move a bit to the "left" if he wants anything done.

All in all, this state like the entire country needs a revolution.

Just to add my two cents. Having moved here in 200...

2009-06-03T22:41:49.245-04:00

Just to add my two cents. Having moved here in 2002 from New England, I found myself in a state of DUBYA supporters being extremely proud of "defeating the terrorists".

However, with the success of Governor Warner and many fellow transplants from more liberal parts of the country, Tim Kaine won election. Just like in 2008 with President Obama, it was us fake Virginians in the northern six counties that flexed newfound political muscle.

I am not sure that this is a permanent fixture in Virginia. President Obama was/is wildly popular in Northern Virginia and the Virginia Republican Party was in shambles in 2008. I do not believe this can last forever.

It will be an interesting election this fall and I look forward to voting in the primary on Tuesday.

Nate, While I agree with your conclusion, I think ...

2009-06-03T19:24:00.629-04:00

Nate,
While I agree with your conclusion, I think you incorrectly site Occam's razor. You've created a separate theory to explain each result, whereas the vote-against-the-party-in-power theory is singular. So as an ensemble, your reasoning is more complex.

You would do better to justify your position with correlation != causation, selection bias=bad, or better fit.

p.s. I'm not just pulling this complexity standard out of my backside. Rule-Based Bayesian Reasoning Systems often consider fewer rules to be simpler. This way model accuracy can be counterbalanced.

Of course, you are also aware of curve overfit. Which is quite analogous to trading many separate theories for one less accurate one.

Whitman had a LOT of trouble getting reelected, co...

2009-06-03T19:08:31.202-04:00

Whitman had a LOT of trouble getting reelected, contrary to this post-she won by just over a point against a serious opponent, about the same margin she got in her initial bid. 1993 was a consequence of backlash to tax hikes in a state with some of the highest taxes in the country, same as 2009.

NJ isn't a case of anti-incumbents. Corzine is incompetent-he's very liberal, even by New Jersey standards, and let himself take the blame for the 2006 state government shutdown. Christie's got a solid record as US Attorney, and the fact that he's running on his US Attorney's tenure means he's never had to take a stand on tax hikes/spending cuts from popular programs, like the ones that killed Corzine's approval ratings.

Christie has no reason to move further to the right-NJ Republicans
are moderates, mostly in real estate or business-anti-tax and anti-union, but they couldn't care less about social issues, which is the biggest gap between Christie and Lonegan.

NJ elects its 1st-ever Lt. Gov. in 2009. How + when will the candidates for Lt. Gov be chosen, and will they run on a ticket or separately from the gubernatorial candidates? If they run separately, the Democrat will cruise to victory.

The main reason Corzine is unpopular is that he's ...

2009-06-03T18:59:10.506-04:00

The main reason Corzine is unpopular is that he's trying to run a fiscally responsible government in a state with a HUGE property tax burden. This is the result of a woefully inefficient patchwork of redundant municipal governments, a situation that has been intractable to change. Corzine, faced with both a huge debt burden (inherited in a large part from his predecessors) and onerous pension commitments to teachers, cops, etc., has tried finding a formula to pay for it all, which has led to attempts to raise taxes and tolls. People here in NJ do not want to pay more in taxes/tolls/fees -- but they do not want services cut, either. In this regard the state IS a significant bellwether for how the nation as a whole is going to cope with future budget problems. Those struggles will, for the most part, be played out on the local level. But the local level is where national politicians are discovered and rolled out.

Which brings us to Mr. Christie. As far as I can see, his one and only appeal is that he's the Federal Prosecutor who put Sharpe James -- Newark's spectacularly corrupt African-American mayor -- behind bars. If he manages to beat Corzine, he will also have the aura of a winner added to his rep as a crusading DA in the Thomas Dewey mold. But beyond that?...

One major weakness of Christie: he's fat as a pig. He'd better get diet tips from Huckabee, toot sweet, if he wants a shot at anything beyond Trenton.

Small correction: Bob McDonnell is not the current...

2009-06-03T18:56:33.113-04:00

Small correction: Bob McDonnell is not the current attorney general of Virginia. He resigned to run for governor.

I grew up in southwestern Virginia and now live in NoVa. National politics may influence the gubernatorial races inasmuch as the national parties react to the previous year's presidential race and that can determine how much importance they attach to the outcome in Virginia. Individuals are an entirely different matter. While Northern Virginia is symbiotic with Washington (in the metropolitan sense), the rest of Virginia might as well be a thousand miles away.

Once the Dems throw their weight behind one candidate, you'll see this race become more competitive.

Nate... You site only opens up halfway--in your ...

2009-06-03T18:03:37.793-04:00

Nate...

You site only opens up halfway--in your Is Gay Marriage Coing or Going in NY State? post everything past "...there is some good news for advocates of gay mjarriage too." is gone. No earlier articles, no comments, nuttin'.

There are very few statewide positions elected in ...

2009-06-03T17:44:01.220-04:00

There are very few statewide positions elected in NJ (senate and the governor only). If you look at the last several decades, you would conclude that when given a choice, NJ voters choose the candidate in the race that appears closest to the center. This was true of Tom Kean and Christie Whitman and Jon Corzine as well as in the last several senate races.

Look for Corzine and everyone helping him to paint Chris Christie as further from the center than Jon is. Lonegan's pushing of Christie to a harder right position will, I suspect, come back to haunt Christie.

And Corzine gets re-elected, by a pretty narrow margin, IMHO.

Jerry (on the ballot in the fall for a local race, with Corzine at the top of the ticket)

Hate to quibble with the statistical evidence of a...

2009-06-03T17:41:21.990-04:00

Hate to quibble with the statistical evidence of a 538 post, but one small point... Christie Whitman barely squeaked by in 1997. She won by 1% against a then unknown mayor named Jim McGreevey. True, it helped that a libertarian candidate took nearly 5% of the vote, but I'd hardly say that constitutes "little trouble getting re-elected in 1997."

The election of a State Governor says little about...

2009-06-03T17:28:23.169-04:00

The election of a State Governor says little about the national leanings of a Party. One only has to look at NY which has often elected a Republican Governor yet is clearly Democratic in Congressional, House and Senate level.

If pressed I would guess that the incumbents win in NJ and Va.

Corzine is a dead duck. This former Wall Street b...

2009-06-03T17:12:32.591-04:00

Corzine is a dead duck. This former Wall Street banker is enormously unpopular and is running his state into the ground having busted its budget.

Without an incumbent in VA the race is harder to call.

But you can be sure in both states there will be a lot of people disgusted with Obama and his campaign of lies and deception that the national Dems will be sent a message.

As a single for instance have you noticed that Obama is suddenly proud of his Muslim heritage?
http://tinyurl.com/q3bjtk

How do admire a man who is so manipulative and deceitful?

petekent01 (on twitter)

Thanks for talking about the VA and NJ governorshi...

2009-06-03T16:58:11.460-04:00

Thanks for talking about the VA and NJ governorships - I had thought 538 had forgotten them.

As a native Virginian (now living in DC) I can tell you this - Virginia politics is weird. We hold elections in odd number years and the Governor can not hold two terms in a row but they can run hold the seat four years later. I have never gotten the impression that the Governors election have been in any way related to the National scene. The old saying that all politics is local is very true.

I can relate that the my impression as to why Mark Warner won the Governorship in 2001 after several attempts at running for Senator (only Virginia could have a Warner v Warner race!) was more to do with what the view that Jim Gilmore's term was a complete failure. When Gilmore first moved into the Governor's house there was all kinds of talk about how much further he could go in his career. There were not-so-subtle hints that Gilmore had his eyes on the White House. You'll notice that you don't hear Gilmore's name mentioned for any kind of higher office by the GOP. I remember polling that asked the right direction/wrong direction for the state at the end of Gilmore's term and wrong direction was the clear winner. In reverse, at the end of Warner's very successful term - see he actually obtained higher office by becoming Senator - when the right direction/wrong direction was asked the majority said right direction. I won't predict this upcoming election until I see that kind of poll.

I know Virginians like to mix it up and we have had two Democratic Governors. While I sense that Kaine was not as popular as Warner I haven't picked up a real sense that Virginia is headed in the wrong direction either. Terry McAufflie is a weak candidate because - let's face it - he's a Clintonite. I just don't think Virginia has forgiven Clinton or wants to relive those years. Yet McAufflie will bring all the big bucks he needs to run a potent campaign. But on the other hand I don't think the State Senate is viewed that favorably. The GOP has been steadily loosing it's stranglehold on the state senate over the past several elections. Personally I think McDonnell is leading in the polls because he ran unopposed while the Democrats have three candidates. [Plus I really really really hate McDonnell for turning away the extra federal money for the unemployed] While I won't predict the winner I will predict that this race will get a lot closer than it is right now, once the Democrats decide on a candidate.

"History Dictate," is simply a slightly strong for...

2009-06-03T16:52:44.247-04:00

"History Dictate," is simply a slightly strong formulation of the old cliche, "History Tells US." Since the author put it inside quotation marks he is not necessarily endorsing it usage, but this post is directly at the absurdity of the concept underlying the phrase. "History" doesn't tell us anything. It is a confusing mass of events upon which we attempt to impose order and from which we try to draw inferences. When someone says, "History tells us," s(he) is really saying, "This is a conclusion I have drawn from that set of historical events of which I am aware."

When history speaks, it is only because someone has grabbed it by the neck, started choking it and yelling at it "Speak to me!. But only of things I want to hear."

Thank you for putting up with my rant.

WV: thelacc

The Los Angeles County Club Gee, I've got to train the mind to give me better associations.

I'm not really sure it's fair to compare the two--...

2009-06-03T16:36:09.834-04:00

I'm not really sure it's fair to compare the two--NJ has less than 20% Republican registration, while VA was until pretty recently a solidly red state. In NJ yesterday, there were only slightly more than 300K votes cast in the Republican primary, in a state of almost 9 million people--and this is in an election that's their best chance of winning state-wide office.

While Corzine is hugely unpopular right now, I don't think it's an easy pickup for the Republicans--although Christie will have a better shot at it than Lonegan would have.

Nate wrote that the only time VA voted for the sam...

2009-06-03T16:34:44.219-04:00

Nate wrote that the only time VA voted for the same party for Gov. and Pres. was in 1968-69.

That's a bit misleading. The winning Republican candidate for Governor (Linwood Holton) was significantly more progressive than the Republican he defeated. For example, Holton -- who was the first GOP governor of VA since Reconstruction -- pointedly sent his children to integrated public schools at a time when most white Virginians were fighting fiercely against school desegregation and busing.

As it turned out, Holton's daughter is now married to Tim Kaine [how many times can you think of where two governors of different parties were related in that fashion?] and his son is an award-winning progressive historian. Holton himself endorsed Obama for President last year.

IDK man. VA's demographics have changed so drasti...

2009-06-03T16:17:09.844-04:00

IDK man. VA's demographics have changed so drastically and are beginning to lean Democratic. It's what helped Webb win (the macaca moment didn't hurt either). Warner would have won no matter what. He's like a demi-God in this state.

On top of that VA has been an exceptionally well run state under Democratic Governorship. That isn't something the well educated VA population is going to just forget about.

It's state issues that drive these races. In New ...

2009-06-03T15:59:46.397-04:00

It's state issues that drive these races. In New Jersey, Corzine is unpopular (a lot of governors are), but also made his fortune in Wall Street, plus he's not the greatest communicator. In Virginia, a strong GOP candidate, Bob McDonnell is leading, mainly because of the weakness of the three Dems running in next week's primary.

And the "exhaustion" factor may well in play in Virginia, as the Dems struggled to retain House of Delagates seats and lost a Board of Supervisors seat in Fairfax County.

Kaine also benefited significantly from a hugely p...

2009-06-03T15:56:54.871-04:00

Kaine also benefited significantly from a hugely popular predecessor. Whoever wins the Democratic nom next week will not have that benefit, at least not to the extent that Kaine did.