Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: In Alaska, Everyone's An Oil Baron

loveaed8@yahoo.com.tw

2009-09-22T07:47:31.653-04:00

loveaed8@yahoo.com.tw

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2009-03-12T01:41:00.000-04:00

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Oops--5-year rolling average, as gear goddess said...

2008-09-04T02:08:00.000-04:00

Oops--5-year rolling average, as gear goddess said.

Nate, you're understand of AK's PFD (Permanent Fun...

2008-09-04T02:06:00.000-04:00

Nate, you're understand of AK's PFD (Permanent Fund Dividend) checks is off the mark. The checks grew because of good investment returns, not because of anything Palin did. Higher royalties may increase dividends some time in the future, but the annual dividends are based on a three-year rolling average of investment returns of a fund established years ago from oil revenues.

Just sayin'...love your blog, BTW

Back to the topic of the original post ...In fact,...

2008-09-03T22:37:00.000-04:00

Back to the topic of the original post ...

In fact, the dividends received by Alaskans each fall have very little to do with the policies of the current governor towards the oil companies. The dividend is calculated based on a five-year average of the returns on the investment of the royalty monies taken in by the state going back to the early seventies. The amount we received last year ($1654) was for the year 2006, before Palin was governor, and was much higher than previous years because the several bad investment years following the dot-com boom finally dropped out of the five-year average.

What the governor's policies toward oil companies does affect, however, is our state budget. Because of high oil prices and a more aggressive tax policy crafted by Palin's advisors, we have a huge budget surplus this year. I went to a Q&A panel with Palin, who never spoke herself, and was unimpressed when her surrogates appeared not to understand the tax changes themselves.

The real reasons for Palin's high approval ratings are 1) the contrast between her and the currupt Republicans we've been dealing with up here; and 2) the law she just passed to give a $1200 energy relief rebate to each Alaskan. The checks roll out starting next Friday.

I really feel for the media folks out there trying to decipher the Palin story ... Alaska is very different from the Lower 48.

Good to see a discussion of Alaska's oil royalties...

2008-09-03T20:14:00.000-04:00

Good to see a discussion of Alaska's oil royalties. Isn't Alaska's largess directly relevant to the claims regarding Palin's "executive experience?" It seems to me that the most important and challenging routine executive decision-making that a governor engages in is deciding a state's budget priorities. This is particularly true in lean economic times when many states face large deficits. (Indeed, isn't this why Ahnold hasn't made it to St. Paul?) With oil prices high, oil revenues up, and Alaskans getting hefty checks from the state treasury, it seems that Palin has been spared the tough budget decisions - not exactly the position she will be in if and when she arrives in Washington.

LAT -In my mind her "reform fighting" as governor ...

2008-09-03T20:11:00.000-04:00

LAT -

In my mind her "reform fighting" as governor is relevant in two important ways.

First, it shows that, though she has had limited executive experience (depending on how much you count her time as mayor of Wasilla), she has made great use of it during her time as chief executive officer of the state of Alaska. As governor she represents that people of Alaska who are "owners" of the state's natural resources, and she has been very successful in pursuing the interests of her "shareholders" (I'd say she could expect a nice bonus if this were truly a corporate scenario).

This compares favorably to Obama's experience as the "chief executive" of his campaign team, which he has referenced as executive experience. Certainly he has run a tight ship, which will have a certain degree of importance in running a Presidential administration, but that's hardly the most important role of the President. The President needs to interact and negotiate with other "chief executives" of the world, which is not something that I would imagine has had much of a role in Presidential campaign. Gov. Palin, on the other hand, has done quite well in this role.

The second important aspect of Palin that this shows is a passion for pursuing the interests of her constituents. She has relentlessly pursued those issues which are in the best interests of Alaskans. Some will try to portray this as Alaska-centric, particularly combined with the rumours about the AIP, but I think she will show that she will utilize it to the same effect for all the citizens of the US, as VP (and, potentially, President).

Having said that, I always appreciate unexpected comparisons. Politics in Alaska is a strange business and there are, at least superficially, similarities to existing "oil states". There is a very interesting argument to be had over whether residents deserve any kind of "ownership" of the natural resources their state provides.

yes David if you see my post above I am not saying...

2008-09-03T19:37:00.000-04:00

yes David if you see my post above I am not saying Palin caused Alaskan politics and economics to be this way. My point is that to frame her as the equivalent of a reform fighter at the national level is highly misleading because the politics of commodity/reousrce nationalism are very specific. It is a small point. My larger point is that this story is a familiar one and it is very much connected to the structure of the economy. And it was sort of staggering for me to think that she has more in common with the resource nationalists of latin america than with other American politicians. (except the ones down south are not religious, they are messianic populists)

All things considered 21M isn't bad. The primetim...

2008-09-03T19:34:00.000-04:00

All things considered 21M isn't bad. The primetime speakers were lazy Fred and Joe Lieberman, who I don't think anyone figured could compare to Hillary Clinton. Fred gave a good speech but most people have long lost interest in him, and Lieberman isn't exactly a rousing speaker.

Now let's see what happens with the ratings tonight, with Sarah Palin speaking.

Will--Yes the Jared book is great. I like the firs...

2008-09-03T19:31:00.000-04:00

Will--Yes the Jared book is great. I like the first one much better though (guns, germs and steel). And you? what did you think?

Brad--my point is that her idea of reform is grounded and embedded in the economic politics of the Petro State. And those leave her with zero idea and zero preparation for what the national economy is challenged with. Plus--the rentier state mentality might actually lead to decision making that benefits oil producers (and the states that live off them) and not the US nationally. So reform in that context is not really reform at all just more of the pathologies of a rentier economy.

And for the record--I am not a Chavez fan but the idea that Palin's reform is what DC needs is like saying that all the countries in Latin America should follow Venezuela's lead. That makes no sense because that would be extrapolating from an economy that works exclusively on the riches of the commodity boom.

I know this analysis is not very fine--grained. Something has been bothering me for a few days and it just hit me that this is it so sorry if it feels raw and meandering.

As a side note--you guys know what Venezuela's call oil? The devil's excrement.

LAT -If Alaska is a prototypical oil state, then A...

2008-09-03T19:30:00.000-04:00

LAT -

If Alaska is a prototypical oil state, then A) it's been that way for a while, and B) Palin didn't really have anything to do with it. All that Palin did was make sure that the Alaskan state's role as owner of the available oil resources was fully utilized.

I really think it's a bit of a stretch.

Rhys,Independents weren't making those ads, and th...

2008-09-03T19:24:00.000-04:00

Rhys,

Independents weren't making those ads, and those are the people you may be able to convince with logic and reason.

But not if we act like the liberal version of trolls.

will walker -The "banning books" thing lacks conte...

2008-09-03T19:22:00.001-04:00

will walker -

The "banning books" thing lacks context. Since it wasn't pursued I don't really know what to think.

There does seem to be a loyalty issue involved, both in the state trooper investigation and the librarian issue. I don't know how well that plays with the "reformer" image, whether it really hurts it or not.

rhysyou aren't gonna convert anyone here with hard...

2008-09-03T19:22:00.000-04:00

rhys

you aren't gonna convert anyone here with hardcore liberal banter here.

I'm guessing nate attracts quite a few independents who prefer well reasoned thinking.

I have decided this because my candidate says that families are "off limits"

try politicalinaction.com if you want more red meat.

21 million watched the convention last night vs. 2...

2008-09-03T19:20:00.001-04:00

21 million watched the convention last night vs. 26 million for night 2 of the dem convention.

say what you will about the Clinton's, they brought the ratings to the haaaaaaaaaaaus.

"Hey Glen, we're Post Partisan here!"Speak for you...

2008-09-03T19:20:00.000-04:00

"Hey Glen, we're Post Partisan here!"

Speak for yourself. :)

But if Obama wins and they take a firehouse to the neocons and especially the Rove cult, I'll consider a reconciliation. ;)

"Now McSame's campaign are threatening legal action against the National Enquirer."

Aren't these the same people who just a month ago were releasing REALLY obnoxious attack ads and telling people who complained to get a sense of humor?

Man, this is all SO amusing.

Sarah Palin's speech excerpt looks ok, doesn't see...

2008-09-03T19:17:00.000-04:00

Sarah Palin's speech excerpt looks ok, doesn't seem to refute or hit dem policy tho.

She is definitely playing defense, but she goes after Obama's character in each excerpt.

lat-So Sarah "the reformer" Palin is reforming us ...

2008-09-03T19:15:00.000-04:00

lat-

So Sarah "the reformer" Palin is reforming us into a small corrupt oil state?

Drudge has lost it. No mention of the poor rating...

2008-09-03T19:13:00.001-04:00

Drudge has lost it. No mention of the poor ratings for the repubs, only mentioning a negative Palin story in context of it being biased, etc. Drudge has proven to be a repub this round, learn tonot trust him AND DO NOT GO THERE!!! TAKE AWAY HIS PRECIOUS HITS!!!!!

Lat - Have you read Jared Diamond's Collapse yet?

2008-09-03T19:13:00.000-04:00

Lat -

Have you read Jared Diamond's Collapse yet?

OMG! The National Enquirer loves that kind of pub...

2008-09-03T19:10:00.000-04:00

OMG! The National Enquirer loves that kind of publicity! They WANT to be sued by high visibilty people.

Even John "Suing made me rich" Edwards did not threatena lawsuit. Is this a ploy to keep the crazy and uneducated?

My guess, it is only a ploy to make people thinkthere is some reason to doubt the coming stories. If there are lawsuits, they will be dropped after the election.

David--thanks for your detailed post. I have to sa...

2008-09-03T19:06:00.001-04:00

David--thanks for your detailed post. I have to say something here that a lot of people are going to jump on me for but after reading your post it just hit me.

The Palin sotry is PROTOTYPICAL of oil states. You can take your post, leave everything but the names verbatim and you could be describing Venezuela circa 1998. Or Bolivia 2006. Or Ecuador last year. The issues are the same, the resource nationalism is also constitutional (but bolestered by a commodity boom) the parties are corrupt, the mavericks take on the corruption, the parties, rail about getting the resouces to the people, win the election.

If I told the story you just told to any Latin American they would not think 'Sara Palin'. They would think Evo Morales (and some would think Hugo Chavez) And this last bit is why I know people will jump on me but it is not about character or comparing them it is that the economics of oil states lead to these situations. And they are only sustainable as politics in oil states NOT nationally.