Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Election Night Viewers' Guide

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2009-10-02T08:05:18.377-04:00

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2009-04-06T13:11:00.000-04:00

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2009-03-12T21:40:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-12T21:40:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-08T22:52:00.000-05:00

Nate, I hope you're preparing the site to get hit ...

2008-11-04T00:18:00.000-05:00

Nate, I hope you're preparing the site to get hit with HUGE traffic tomorrow!
Maybe a super-streamlined front page?

"It’s also possible to win the popular vote and lo...

2008-11-03T21:26:00.000-05:00

"It’s also possible to win the popular vote and lose every state, but I wouldn’t count on either scenario."

How??

loose every state by 1,000, win DC by 51,000

you are the light of my day. thank you!!!

2008-11-03T18:16:00.000-05:00

you are the light of my day. thank you!!!

1) Jack is out of his mind. Northern Virginia is b...

2008-11-03T17:43:00.000-05:00

1) Jack is out of his mind. Northern Virginia is bluer than blue, from at least Manassas to Arlington, and from Great Falls to the Occoquan and probably beyond. All us fake Virginians. :-)

2) The GOTV effort for Obama is in full swing tonight. At midnight, their plan is to put GOTV literature on every door in the region. At five a.m., a second sweep to make sure that everyone got covered. During the day, checks to make sure that people who said they were supporting Obama had voted, and if not, offers to drive them to their polling place. This is a level of thoroughness that's unprecedented. Meanwhile, nothing from the McCain side but robocalls.

Tonight, for the first time ever, I'm going out to do something for a political campaign, in the hope that my contribution helps in some small way. So if you're awake at midnight, think of me, slipping from door to door, getting out the vote...

Coal is not going to be a motivator for a McCain v...

2008-11-03T17:41:00.000-05:00

Coal is not going to be a motivator for a McCain victory in Virginia -- although McCain's position on embracing coal is a complete hypocritical flip-flop from years of being on the right side of theissue in the Senate. The fact is there just aren't that many people dependent on coal in Virginia.

Virginia final: Obama 51.2, McCain 47.5. That's the pro McCain estimate.

The other one is this. Obama's hard work and great ground game + massive turnout from AA voters adds up to a full 6% more than the underfunded inept campaign of Jim Webb received when he bested Maccaca-Man. 56% for Obama.

This election night plan amused me: http://www.big...

2008-11-03T17:29:00.000-05:00

This election night plan amused me: http://www.bigfatwhale.com/archives/bfw_381.htm

markymark, I'm not offended, I'm amused that peopl...

2008-11-03T17:04:00.000-05:00

markymark, I'm not offended, I'm amused that people still believe in things like god and heaven, it's almost like people believing in McCain winning the election. :-)

Thanks for the answers.. Gives me a better perspec...

2008-11-03T16:59:00.000-05:00

Thanks for the answers.. Gives me
a better perspective on things. Would hate to see him get in for all the wrong reasons.... ;-)

Condolences for his gran... :-(

Michael said... "I ran my computer calculations...

2008-11-03T16:55:00.000-05:00

Michael said...

"I ran my computer calculations of the states by re-weighting the polls to more realistic numbers, and this is what I got: MVRed.com Prediction: McCain 281-Obama 257"

Please, please, please come back Wednesday so we can laugh at you for your moronic attempts at StaDtizdics. Anyone can re-weight polls to make them say anyone will win.

Oh, I so hoped she would see him win. That's just ...

2008-11-03T16:53:00.001-05:00

Oh, I so hoped she would see him win. That's just heart breaking.

Very sad news about Obama's grandmother. Hopefully...

2008-11-03T16:53:00.000-05:00

Very sad news about Obama's grandmother. Hopefully she and her daughter can enjoy Obama's voctory together. (Sorry if that offends any atheists!)

Obviously, the polls closing is good news... for J...

2008-11-03T16:50:00.000-05:00

Obviously, the polls closing is good news... for John McCain... and his golf game.

Christ. I know they have to prop themselves up so their shaky voters feel motivated to go vote, but do the RePunkLicans have to live in fantasyland all the time? I mean, let's look at what we know.
1- Obama out raised and outspent McCain by large margins. I dunno that an outspent/outraised guy has ever won an election (exception: Al Gore, but we know how that worked out).
2- Obama has the far superior ground game. I cannot imagine they are gonna fold in the last 72 hours and I cannot imagine that the base will suddenly get excited in the last 72 hours for McCain when they haven't really cared for three months, and probably six months before that. And who was the last candidate with a far inferior ground game to win the election (excluding Al Gore, as we know that story).
3- Polling. They have a margin of error. Can they all exceed their margin of error in one direction? Doubtful. Even when you work through their methodology flaws, they are as likely to be wrong in Obama's favor as much as McCain's.

It's all over but the voting and the crying. And all the RePunkliTrolls can claim McCain victory all they want, it's not gonna change the YouthSurge, the AfricanAmericanSurge, the FakeVA Surge and the WhiteCarpetbagger Surge (Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada... They aren't all gonna be Obama's, but enough of them are to render the RedState BlueState OneState TwoState argument moot.

It will be fun to watch the returns. Then we can deal with four years of conservative radio complaining every time Obama sneezes.

AsIOnDi: A fantasy involving the late Princess Di or a tasteless comment on Operation Linebacker.

Jack said... "I guess everyone can label me neg...

2008-11-03T16:46:00.001-05:00

Jack said...

"I guess everyone can label me negative, but I live in Leesburg, VA, and I have never been more sure of an election outcome than I have of this one: McCain will unfortunately win Virginia. He will win it by a few points. And if Nate is right that Virginia is that important, than we are in for a long and potentially disappointing night. And if THAT is true, then one will legitimately have to wonder a LOT about Nate's algorithms, numbers, and everything one uses to point out for a long time how Obama has a greater than 90% chance of winning this. Frankly, reading Nate's post here, one wonders if it's the same Nate who rights the very positive outlooks for Obama's chances. I wish it was not true, but McCain will win Virginia and win it by a surprising margin."

Nate is wrong about all his statistics and outlook because you have a feeling about the election???

Do you have ANY evidence at all for this? You offer none. Just more boring assertions. Try making an argument and offer evidence to support it instead.

God bless you Toot

2008-11-03T16:46:00.000-05:00

God bless you Toot

Obama's grandmother has just died - via the BBC. ...

2008-11-03T16:45:00.000-05:00

Obama's grandmother has just died - via the BBC. It's on the Guardian ticker.

Oh, I am heartsick about Obama's grandmother.I was...

2008-11-03T16:43:00.001-05:00

Oh, I am heartsick about Obama's grandmother.

I was just thinking of her earlier today and hoping she would see tomorrow.

I'm sorry to hear the news about Obama's grandmoth...

2008-11-03T16:43:00.000-05:00

I'm sorry to hear the news about Obama's grandmother.

Andy JS said... Before the Civil Rights Act, did ...

2008-11-03T16:42:00.001-05:00

Andy JS said...
Before the Civil Rights Act, did those few African Americans who were able to vote split their votes equally between the parties, or did they favour one of them in particular?

Directly following the civil war, African Americans were republican loyalists. Party of lincoln and what not...

Then FDR recruited a large percentage of the African American population into the Democratic Party through his New Deal legislation. Later, Truman would integrate the federal service, thus ingratiating an even greater number of African Americans to the Democratic Party.

But Kennedy cemented it

Bleut: John McCain bluet his chances.

"In the UK it is actually illegal to make any stat...

2008-11-03T16:42:00.000-05:00

"In the UK it is actually illegal to make any statement that suggests you know which way the voting is going while the polling stations are still open for business, because it could influence how people vote or whether they vote at all."

Would be hard to make it illegal here without changing the constitution. 1st amendment and all that

obama's grandmother has passed away.

2008-11-03T16:41:00.003-05:00

obama's grandmother has passed away.