Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: BREAKING: Obama Campaign Organizers Trying To Win ...

キャッシング網頁設計クレジットカード　現金化ダンボール留学水　通販ウィークリ...

2009-07-22T04:13:58.267-04:00

キャッシング
網頁設計
クレジットカード　現金化
ダンボール
留学
水　通販
ウィークリーマンション
障害者
有料老人ホーム
看板　製作
レーザー脱毛
フランチャイズ

フランチャイズコンタクトレンズインプラント会社設立ショッピング枠　現金化お見合いグルー...

2009-07-17T05:43:28.195-04:00

フランチャイズ
コンタクトレンズ
インプラント

会社設立
ショッピング枠　現金化
お見合い
グループウェア
電報
矯正歯科
格安航空券
網頁設計
ウィークリーマンション

クレジットカード　現金化
キャッシング
ダンボール
水　通販

^^ very nice 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社, 徵...

2009-03-12T02:33:00.001-04:00

^^ very nice 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社, 徵...

2009-03-12T02:33:00.000-04:00

徵信社, 感情挽回, 挽回感情, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 捉姦, 徵信公司, ...

2009-02-09T05:53:00.000-05:00

情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,...

2009-01-19T08:29:00.000-05:00

Did the Obama campaign EVER give away free yard si...

2008-10-27T10:15:00.000-04:00

Did the Obama campaign EVER give away free yard signs and other chum? If they did, it's news to me.

I have an Obama yard sign -- I ordered it from the campaign website and paid good money for it! Same for my Obama button, bumper sticker, and T-shirt. It never even occurred to me that I should get that stuff free.

I had a window sign up right after Obama declared ...

2008-10-16T11:15:00.000-04:00

I had a window sign up right after Obama declared candidacy (it came in the mail with my contribution). This is over a year's worth of conversations I've had with passers-by and neighbors. I am somewhat agoraphobic and dislike talking to strangers somewhat, also. I found out about the acceptance speech gathering in my little town from the sign volunteer (and a web site) and when I attended that a volunteer signed me up to register voters, which I did three times, which is a big step forward for me. I enjoyed it and registered a fair number of people.

This is a transition year in "chum" distribution but the general public doesn't know this and aren't comfortable with being told that "you can print one out". I don't have a color printer. This is a small, poor town, but it has lots of persuadable people, even by people unable or unwilling to canvass. I don't want to because when involved in more local, contentious issues, I received a few "death thrests" a few years ago, and as a single elderly woman living alone with no relatives for hundreds of miles, I just quit being as involved at that level.

I admire those who can quit their jobs and volunteer, and so forth. I was that kind of volunteer in the 1960s. But any help at all is fine with me, and each yard sale or bumper sticker sale at our Obama booth generated conversation and words of involvement and mutual encouragement. And I didn't mind the complaints about how hard it is to get them - not everyone uses a computer as much as 20-somethings do, and elders are pretty faithful voters, and it's voters that this is all about.

It's not just about the yard signs - it's about pe...

2008-10-05T14:20:00.000-04:00

It's not just about the yard signs - it's about people who would like to participate or support the Obama campaign but unless you can canvass or can afford to make phone calls with your own cell phone or pay from home - OBAMA H.Q. doesn't want you, doesn't need you. That's it. Canvass, Call or get lost. Oh - while F.O.'s spend they're PAID time on conference calls and emailing, blogging and bullying volunteers who are REALLY DOING THE WORK.

Coming directly from one of the organizers you ref...

2008-09-24T11:46:00.000-04:00

Coming directly from one of the organizers you refer to in your post:

Thank god someone gets it, and someone (other than us, who have to patiently smile and lament the lack of yard signs) can SAY IT TOO! Sean, you're a wonderful human being. This should be on the front page of The Politico.

Okay, back to the campaign. But I won't tell you which one. ;)

Does the Obama campaign really want everyone think...

2008-09-24T05:49:00.000-04:00

Does the Obama campaign really want everyone thinking that they don't have a significant presence in swing states? Maybe that strategy will work . . . we'll see. As I discuss in the post, I spoke to campaign staffers in four offices this week, and they were all desperate for signage and stickers.

Online Marketing Solution

Brian Goethe

there's also this yardsign that I found: cafepress...

2008-09-23T01:18:00.000-04:00

there's also this yardsign that I found: cafepress.com/08yardsign

Brilliant post. Thank you. I'm in 100% agreement...

2008-09-22T22:01:00.000-04:00

Brilliant post. Thank you. I'm in 100% agreement with everything you wrote.

magnificent post!

2008-09-22T17:57:00.000-04:00

magnificent post!

This is the greatest column I have ever read. Tha...

2008-09-22T14:49:00.000-04:00

This is the greatest column I have ever read. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. This is going to wallpaper our office.

You're damn straight and that was an excellent pie...

2008-09-22T12:48:00.000-04:00

You're damn straight and that was an excellent piece of parody. We, the sore footed, muscle warn and annoyed as hell organizers of the world salute you!

First, I can't overstate how much I admire and res...

2008-09-22T11:39:00.000-04:00

First, I can't overstate how much I admire and respect your dedication to rigorous statistical models based in every piece of available evidence. I only recently started reading 538.com, but it is now on my daily reading list.

Second, I am wondering how this focus on voter registration by the Obama campaign will affect the predictive accuracy of voter turnout in prior years? I haven't seen this issue discussed at length or in a satisfactory way anywhere. To me (optimist that I am)it seems that historic levels of new voter registration (even if you assume that only a small percentage will vote)when coupled with the fact that most polls do not include cell phone-only households (which tend to be predominantly AA and young are two good reason to believe that the polls are likely systematically under-estimating of how well Obama will perform in November. Maybe there is no way to model this, but I think it would be an interesting thing to consider incorporating into a model and would really be interested in hearing your thoughts on how these dynamics will play out!

Sean, three probelms with your post.(1)Your argume...

2008-09-22T10:56:00.000-04:00

Sean, three probelms with your post.

(1)Your argument against yard signs is that they're too costly in terms of organizers time ... but that's a self-inflicted cost. If there were enough signs on hand, organizers wouldnt have to waste time defending why they dont have enough signs.

(2)Belittling and patronizing your supporters because they're not smart enough to understand that something they think is important is not important is NOT a winning electoral strategy.

(3)Finally, your marketing argument that Obama has high name recognition so signs are unimportant is plain wrong. Everybody has head of Tide, but that does not prevent P&G from spending millions to continually promote the brand.

@ rebelofthesheepThe Democrats should identify tho...

2008-09-22T08:59:00.000-04:00

@ rebelofthesheep

The Democrats should identify those aren't as soon as they can and dispatch volunteers to that area to motivate them and hand out water bottles and stuff. The ones leaving do it because they think their vote isn't going to change the outcome. That becomes a problem when 10,000 indivuals think the same and unfortunately long lines tend to be more rampant in urban districts which tend to be favorable towards the Dems and would skew the election towards McCain.

FYI: As long as you're standing in line before the...

2008-09-22T08:41:00.000-04:00

FYI: As long as you're standing in line before the polls close, they legally have to let you vote. The trick is getting people to wait.

So if my lawn signs are useless, and the conversat...

2008-09-22T07:55:00.000-04:00

So if my lawn signs are useless, and the conversations I've had about them and the neighbors I've met because of them don't count, does that mean the Obama campaign will refund the $16 I contributed to get them?

If lawn signs are such a huge imposition on the hard-working campaign, CHARGE US MORE FOR THEM YOU FOOLS and make it worth your while. Quit whining.

All this talk of the Bradley Effect. Hmmm very int...

2008-09-22T07:36:00.000-04:00

All this talk of the Bradley Effect. Hmmm very interesting. Was there a Bradley Effect when Doug Wilder was elected Governor of Virginia? I am actually asking that question seriously!

But here is the deal, Maybe all this talk of the Bradley Effect is the media trying to keep what is about to become a not so close election seeming close. Obama consistently 5 points ahead- ahhh but remember the Bradley effect, it might only be a point or two in reality! The Bradley Effect, and a thousand other factor Xs this time around are only going to be visible the day after the election. Lets wait till then to get excited about them.

@SamYeah, that might work.I don't like it though b...

2008-09-22T06:03:00.000-04:00

@Sam

Yeah, that might work.

I don't like it though because it's pretty disingenuous. I suppose that kind of pandering is unavoidable, but it's silly and dishonest. Obama would really lose face in my eyes, and with a lot of other scientifically literate people. His position on nuclear is already so tenuous that I can only - just - accept it.

That McCain says he would not be comfortable with nuclear waste going through phoenix is silly, it has been going through phoenix and every other major American city since at least the 1960s. Military waste of course (huge amounts were produced by the Manhattan project), not civilian, but it's perfectly safe as evidenced by the fact there has not been one accident of note involving the transport of waste.

(Fluorine gas, hydrochloric acid, dioxins, methyl-mercury and thousands of other industrial chemicals get trucked around every day and actually do kill people occasionally in accidents. But they're not scary like nuclear waste. So no one cares.)

Anyway, McCain backed away from Yucca Mountain as soon as he ran for president. So that's a non-issue.

Honestly the only significant value in Yucca Mountain is that it mitigates the argument about "No final storage place for nuclear waste." Outside of that I don't see a lot of utility. We'll end up reprocessing the "waste" anyway.

Well, it would save tax payers some money if Yucca were opened. Nuclear energy companies paid for it (over 1 Billion in "waste disposal fees" have been collected by the government), and Yucca was supposed to be open by now. So now the government is having to pay the cost of maintaining alternate storage facilities. If Yucca does ever open, it will be a nice profit for US taxpayers, since the thing only cost a few billion to build when its done, but rate payers have paid tens of billions into the fund. Yeah, the electricity market is huge!)

How about we stay away from nuclear? You think Oba...

2008-09-22T05:11:00.000-04:00

How about we stay away from nuclear? You think Obama could have a secret meeting with the populace of Nevada? Get the state to know that he doesn't reall y want Nuclear energy and McCain does. Let all of Nevada know, but not let anyone else in on it. That could be the deciding factor in Nevada, but they have to know and be scared of it. He also can't let McCain tell the American public, Obama doesn't want to do everything possible to get off oil. He wants to buy from the Arabs. Look he don't like nuclear. It might flip Nevada though.
==========

All Obama needs to do is to run ads and campaigning in Nevada saying that storing nuclear waste in Nevada isn't a good idea and that McCain has dismissed nuclear waste going through Arizona. "So how safe is it really?". That would help drive the Dems to gain some points in Nevada without becoming a national issue.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qlZihwEgqNw

as an FO currently working in Alaska, thank you th...

2008-09-22T04:10:00.000-04:00

as an FO currently working in Alaska, thank you thank you thank you for this post. we got a laugh out of it, but oh man, is it ever true.

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: BREAKING: Obama Campaign Organizers Trying To Win ...

キャッシング 網頁設計 クレジットカード 現金化 ダンボール 留学 水 通販 ウィークリ...

フランチャイズ コンタクトレンズ インプラント 会社設立 ショッピング枠 現金化 お見合い グルー...

^^ very nice 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社, 徵...

^^ very nice 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社, 徵...

徵信社, 感情挽回, 挽回感情, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 捉姦, 徵信公司, ...

情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,...

Did the Obama campaign EVER give away free yard si...

I had a window sign up right after Obama declared ...

It's not just about the yard signs - it's about pe...

Coming directly from one of the organizers you ref...

Does the Obama campaign really want everyone think...

there's also this yardsign that I found: cafepress...

Brilliant post. Thank you. I'm in 100% agreement...

magnificent post!

This is the greatest column I have ever read. Tha...

You're damn straight and that was an excellent pie...

First, I can't overstate how much I admire and res...

Sean, three probelms with your post.(1)Your argume...

@ rebelofthesheepThe Democrats should identify tho...

FYI: As long as you're standing in line before the...

So if my lawn signs are useless, and the conversat...

All this talk of the Bradley Effect. Hmmm very int...

@SamYeah, that might work.I don't like it though b...

How about we stay away from nuclear? You think Oba...

as an FO currently working in Alaska, thank you th...

キャッシング網頁設計クレジットカード　現金化ダンボール留学水　通販ウィークリ...

フランチャイズコンタクトレンズインプラント会社設立ショッピング枠　現金化お見合いグルー...