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For what it's worth, Ben Schak claims that the electoral college gives Obama an advantage, based on simulation. He gives some reasonable-sounding arguments why this should be true), basically that McCain wins bigger in his safe states than Obama does in his.

He quotes it in terms of how the popular vote is split versus Obama's win probability, though, so it's hard to directly compare.

(Disclaimer: Schak is a friend of mine.)

Gee from a much earlier post I thought rusty tromb...

2008-06-16T21:42:15.072-04:00

Gee from a much earlier post I thought rusty trombone was going to be McCains running mate!

What's the explanation for the local peak around 1...

2008-06-16T21:37:45.811-04:00

What's the explanation for the local peak around 10 EV in the electoral vote distribution chart? It surely can't correspond to reality - you don't get another peak that size until you get to around 150 EV.

On another issue, is there any chance of displaying your win prediction using the old methodology? I'm assuming the old and new will converge some in a week or two.

Nice analysis. Here's a bit of analysis I was wor...

2008-06-16T21:32:17.909-04:00

Nice analysis. Here's a bit of analysis I was working on to correlate approval ratings of standing presidents to change in parties holding office. Doing a little analysis it is almost a certainty the Obama will be elected the next president.

Analyzing the elections since 1936 when the public was first polled for presidential approval ratings (ARs) EVERY election when a standing president or in some cases 2 presidents with an average approval rating of less than 50% had led to the opposite party winning the white house (0 out of 4 times).

In the same analysis if the standing president has an approval rating over 50% that does not guaranty that the same party wins back the white house. However in this case when the opposing party did win the white house the elections were incredibly close like in 2000, 1968 and 1960.

Change seems to be a major factor in elections particularly after 2 term presidents. Political parties have only returned parties back into power after two term presidencies in 2 out of 5 times.

Standing President(s) AR, Election winner and popular vote difference
2004 Bush 51%, Bush reelected 2.46%.
2000 Clinton 65%, Bush elected but Gore won popular vote 0.51%.
1996 Clinton 59%, Clinton reelected 8.51%.
1992* Bush 35%, Clinton elected 5.56%.
1988 Reagan 55%, Bush elected 7.72%.
1984 Reagan 57%, Reagan reelected by 18.21%.
1980* Carter 39%, Reagan elected 9.74%.
1976* Ford 55% but Nixon 24% (AVG 39.5%), Carter elected 2.06%.
1972 Nixon 63%, Nixon reelected 23.15%.
1968 LBJ 55%, Nixon elected 0.70%.
1964 JFK 66% and LBJ 75% (AVG 70.5%), LBJ elected 22.58%.
1960 Eisenhower 65%, JFK elected 0.17%.
1956 Eisenhower 75%, Eisenhower reelected 15.40%.
1952* Truman 38%, Eisenhower elected 10.85%.
1948 FDR 72% and Truman 55% (AVG 62.5%), Truman elected 4.48%.
1944 FDR 72%, FDR reelected 7.50%.
1940 FDR 64%, FDR reelected 9.96%.
1936 FDR 60%, FDR reelected 24.26%.

*Incumbent(s) average ARs less than 50%

.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Approval_rating

I find it very very funny that people on here thin...

2008-06-16T20:27:48.375-04:00

I find it very very funny that people on here think Barack Obama will blow out John McCain. I have no idea where they get this idea, his poll 'bounce' lasted about 1 week and it's back to a dead heat in many polls.

Barack Obama will not blow out John McCain because there will be perhaps million[s] of Clinton supporters that will back John McCain. Secondly we live in a world where many senior citizens are still racist, and they are the group that always goes out to vote.

Obama may win the popular vote, but the electoral college projections I have got this election coming down to Michigan-Ohio-Pennsylvania.

I expect Michigan to go to McCain, esp. if he picks Romney as his VP. I expect Pennyslvania to go to Obama by 3 points.
I expect Ohio to go 50/50 and separated by 50,000 votes.

Read more at my blog:
www.mvred.com

I hear a lot of talk about the possibility of Obam...

2008-06-16T20:18:34.607-04:00

I hear a lot of talk about the possibility of Obama winning the popular vote, but losing the electoral college, on the basis of high African-American turnout across the board (the scenario Jason K talks about above). I'm not so sure -- I think it's pretty unlikely that there'd be a huge surge in AA turnout that wouldn't affect Ohio, Florida, Virginia and Missouri -- all of which are states that are close enough/have a big enough AA population for that turnout issue to make a difference.
More likely, I'd think, might be a scenario where Obama does win the electoral college, but not by as big a margin as his popular vote win would suggest....
btw: what's up with the spellcheck in Firefox still not recognizing "Obama"?

Congrats Nate! You've made the big time: porn spam...

2008-06-16T19:59:21.865-04:00

Congrats Nate! You've made the big time: porn spammers.

This is an awesome new graphic you've added. The interesting thing is that, yes, it looks linear when you exclude those endpoints. With them included though (and this augments what Juris stated above) the curve resembles the S-curve you typically see in a binary logit/probit model. In this case, what you have resembles a dichotomous variable for "Obama wins" where the tipping point is 270 electoral votes (instead of, say, 0.5). Anything beyond that and your vote choice is Obama, and below is for McCain. Interesting.

Several folks have mentioned "bring back the cartogram." I'm not a big fan of the cartogram, but we have sought to resize each state to match its electoral vote total proportionally in a template we're using for our electoral college analysis at Frontloading HQ. Granted the methodology behind it may be simplistic compared to what Nate has put together here, but it is an interesting hybrid map that deals with the "map is all red" issue but doesn't completely distort the map to get to correct it.

Now everyone can cross their fingers and hope that this isn't yet another link to porn. At least I'm using HTML tags. They don't seem to be that sophisticated yet.

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Popular Vote v Electoral Vote

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Interesting about Missouri. I have always thought...

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fang2415 -I don't think proportionality would empo...

@yohoho78:You're definitely right about the 270 th...

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maxdaddy, of course you're right about Wyoming bei...

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I oppose the National Popular Vote idea for two ve...

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Nate,Another fascinating graphic! Sometimes we ge...

See the cartograms athttp://www-personal.umich.edu...

I expect Michigan to go to McCain, esp. if he pick...

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