Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Virginia Gubernatorial Primary Live Blog

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2009-11-17T00:01:00.499-05:00

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Obviously Deeds' strength in the primary was his p...

2009-09-28T15:59:13.100-04:00

Obviously Deeds' strength in the primary was his popularity in the boondocks, and generally a democrat is going to do better in NOVA. So why is he trailing so much in the polls? I would actually have expected not just a Deeds lead in the race at this point, but a comfortable lead at that.

As far as the mention that the winner might be a veep candidate in 2012 or 2016, I think Jim Webb is also a very likely consideration there.

Never been a big Terry McAuliffe anyway. I'm glad ...

2009-06-10T12:55:17.811-04:00

Never been a big Terry McAuliffe anyway. I'm glad the good people of Virginia voted him out.

The better man won.

Any Virginians out there, did McAuliffe being so o...

2009-06-10T06:34:30.263-04:00

Any Virginians out there, did McAuliffe being so obviously a Hillary guy last year make a difference in the Primary? I get the feeling that, for want of a better term, the 'Obama wing' of the party is fairly well plugged into purple areas like VA. I get the feeling that the 'Hillary wing' plays well in blue areas, but is always going to struggle in socially moderate places like VA.

The wider point at the moment being that the GOPs concentration on social issues has allowed the Dems to moderate some social positions and seem more inclusive (Casey on abortion, any number of westerners on Guns as examples) whilst remaining essentially liberal. The liberalism has never played badly in border areas, the social liberalism has caused more problems for the Democratic Party in the South.

ONLY 0-2? You must have forgotten 2002 and 2004. ...

2009-06-09T23:47:31.507-04:00

ONLY 0-2? You must have forgotten 2002 and 2004. Make that 0-4 (or 0-5 if you count congressional and presidential elections seperately).

I think VA made the right choice and elected and e...

2009-06-09T22:47:57.141-04:00

I think VA made the right choice and elected and electable candidate for the fall. McCauliff just seemed like a political operative and not really a leader.

Now, he's 0-2 too at winning. I imagine he's gonna take a break for a while.

Terry McAuliffe ran a New York campaign, and Virgi...

2009-06-09T21:27:40.347-04:00

Terry McAuliffe ran a New York campaign, and Virginia is not New York.

Turnout will be about 320K--very good considering ...

2009-06-09T21:10:22.589-04:00

Turnout will be about 320K--very good considering the severe weather, and the general lack of interest. For the fall, the trick for Democrats is to play the expectations game--the Republicans are expected to win both races, and should do so easily. That way, if Deeds wins (Corzine is a lost cause in NJ), it's a big win for the Democrats. I don't think they're up to the task of this.

The closest, although not perfect, comparison I ca...

2009-06-09T21:08:36.645-04:00

The closest, although not perfect, comparison I can think of is the 2004 Illinois Senate seat.

Dan Hynes (Brian Moran) was the initial establishment favorite. He led in most of 2003, but could never could wrap things up. Then came a wealthy candidate Blair Hull, who promised to spend $40 million of his own money, and spend he did. After months of ads, Hull finally took the lead in late 2003 and January and February of 2004. Then came a bombshell in late Feb 2004, with some nasty information in his divorce files. Hull soon fell like a rock.
It was about that point that a third candidate started to take off. Until March 2008, this candidate was in the teens and his support primarily limited to black and progressive communities. But Hull's collapse and some endorsements caused many people to take another look (or for many a first look), and the momentum grew. This third candidate ended up winning with 53% of the vote.

> Is Joe Biden going somewhere? I like Joe, but I...

2009-06-09T21:04:01.969-04:00

> Is Joe Biden going somewhere?

I like Joe, but I hope Obama picks someone else. Someone that can win POTUS in 2016.

@Charlie 2012 for McDonnell 2016 for Deeds

2009-06-09T21:02:12.318-04:00

@Charlie

2012 for McDonnell

2016 for Deeds

"whomever wins is a decent bet to make a VP short ...

2009-06-09T20:49:43.380-04:00

"whomever wins is a decent bet to make a VP short list in 2012 or 2016.
"

Is Joe Biden going somewhere?

Rather than comparing this outcome to Iowa 2004, I...

2009-06-09T20:38:12.284-04:00

Rather than comparing this outcome to Iowa 2004, I'd suggest comparing it to the 1992 Wisconsin Senatorial Democratic Primary. Russ Finegold shocked two well-funded opponents, winning w/70% after polling in the teens shortly beforehand...

p.p.s.s. It looks as if McAuliffe is going to get...

2009-06-09T20:29:22.194-04:00

p.p.s.s. It looks as if McAuliffe is going to get 2nd (although there may be some northern votes hiding somewhere). Too Bad.

I'm glad this is turning from a story about Terry ...

2009-06-09T20:27:50.512-04:00

I'm glad this is turning from a story about Terry McAuliffe (at least to the national press) to one about Deeds.

Tomorrow's papers will be about a strong candidate who ran a good campaign, rather than a man who generally lived out of state (really, lets call him a carpetbagger) and leveraged his political connections into a governorship (or a chance at one, which it looks now like he would have likely lost).

It's a good day for the Democratic party, a better day for Virginia, and best of all for the democratic process.

Oops I made some mistakes in my summary i mean P.P...

2009-06-09T20:23:13.900-04:00

Oops I made some mistakes in my summary i mean P.P.S instead of P.S.S....and I spelled a few words wrong. Whatever.

Nick (this is from another Mark): Deeds first of a...

2009-06-09T20:18:56.952-04:00

Nick (this is from another Mark): Deeds first of all has the best chance of winning. He lost the attorney general race in 2005 by 323 votes to guess who? Bob McDonnell! What does that prove?! First he lost when Virginia was purple maybe slightly red (I now consider it a little bit the the left of center). He was also outspent by McDonnell two to one!!! Two to one in a slightly red state by 323 votes out of about five million votes. So he is probably the person who has the biggest chance aganst McDonnell for starters. Second, he has expereince as a delegate and a state senator for a rural county for about two decades!!!!! Thirdly and lastly, he is open minded and has views that I believe. He is a moderate, and a conservative on gun rights (he owns a pistol and shotgun). He is pro-choice. And liberal on a lot of the other issues. He has always played fair in politics. And is a nice guy. The Washington post said that in there endorsement of him. He is best to continue the Kaine, Warner tradition and transition. Overall, he is the best candidate.

P.S. McAullife is an exagerater
P.S.S. Moran changed his views for political gain (said he supported gay marriage in the end of the primary probably because he was losing ground......)

Totally OT but while I've had my eyes on the VA pr...

2009-06-09T20:18:33.572-04:00

Totally OT but while I've had my eyes on the VA prim tabs was I the only one failing to notice the Supreme's released a brief unsigned opinion refusing the appeal and clearing the way for Chrysler --> Fiat, et. al.?

nice work, nate and ed. Next time, when the 538 d...

2009-06-09T20:16:19.640-04:00

nice work, nate and ed.

Next time, when the 538 decision desk calls the vote, use your twitter account. you beat politico by 20 min, and most twitter breaking news by 30!

Nate, Your Iowa 2004 comparison is a little worry...

2009-06-09T20:09:44.362-04:00

Nate,

Your Iowa 2004 comparison is a little worrysome. I was an early John Kerry supporter (like December 2003, when he had 5% support nationally), but he became a much less interesting candidate (i.e. lost his backbone) when he become the frontrunner and then the nominee.

Obviously, McAuliffe would have been a disaster in the general election, but Deeds' strong support does not guarantee a strong showing in the fall (although it does suggest one).

Rather than destructing/deflating due to attacks at the end, or even a larger profile of an opponent, politicians like McAuliffe or Dean may be able to get supporters, but when decision time comes, people can't see themselves pulling the lever.

The Post called it for Deeds.

2009-06-09T20:09:23.403-04:00

The Post called it for Deeds.

Arlington is done except for absentees and Creigh ...

2009-06-09T20:07:48.762-04:00

Arlington is done except for absentees and Creigh wins with a bit over 48% Amazing.

Antmatic: "Moran vs Deeds straight up in a campaig...

2009-06-09T20:03:03.771-04:00

Antmatic: "Moran vs Deeds straight up in a campaign, I'm not sure who would have won."

If results continue the way the are going, it looks like Deeds could pull of a 50%+1 victory, very rare in a competative 3-way race.

Ironically, I was frustrated at the process (plurality to win, rather than majority) early on when it looked like Moran and Deeds would split the "non-McAuliffe" vote. Of course, then, it looked like Moran was ahead in the polls and Deeds should drop out. Luckily, I'm not a Virginia political consultant.

For those of us that are numerically challenged, W...

2009-06-09T20:02:29.825-04:00

For those of us that are numerically challenged, WaPost has a map with pretty colors showing the primary votes.

http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2009/elections/va/governor/1307/?hpid=topnews

Deeds is very well liked here on the blue island t...

2009-06-09T20:00:55.785-04:00

Deeds is very well liked here on the blue island that is the people's republic of Charlottesville, who he's represented well in the state senate since 2001 (he replaced the late Emily Couric). He might run right of this constituency on some issues, but he's been an effective legislator and advocate for the issues that count here. So it's not just rural and southwest. Glad to see the results bearing that out, too.