Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: A Tied Congressional Election Every 400 Years or S...

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2009-10-10T05:42:04.780-04:00

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Why hasn't this been updated with this:http://voic...

2009-04-06T11:16:25.215-04:00

Why hasn't this been updated with this:

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/house/a-dead-heat-in-new-york.html

Here's how you can tell if someone's a Mule Rider ...

2009-04-02T18:17:30.571-04:00

Here's how you can tell if someone's a Mule Rider alt: they give any kind of rat's ass about Mule Rider.

Seriously, when he was here, all he did was threaten people with violence and complain about Nate never responding to his comment (he never responded to my comments either, get over yourself). Not even people who agreed with him like having him around. He was an utter waste of everyone's time, and no one wants to remember what it was like having here.

So when someone mentions him, I know for a fact that MR is back.

You weren't missed, Mule.

(And with that, I add another alt to my block list.)

I would propose that the popular vote for a 10 yea...

2009-04-02T16:54:55.209-04:00

I would propose that the popular vote for a 10 year period serve as the basis for the census and therefore the distribution of seats in the House of Representatives.

There would be a real incentive to work to get people to turn out and vote.

I am unaware of any provisions that mandate how the census is conducted and prior popular vote would appear to me to be a reasonable way to allocate House Seats.

Loner,I will say this: people like you are really...

2009-04-02T14:56:45.224-04:00

Loner,

I will say this: people like you are really only meant to listen and aborsb. I have no clue who you are (you lack "blog presence")and thus unless are polite I will not engage in discussion or debate with you.

Curious that in all of my highly analytical psot you choose one throwway nugget to comment on. And pointlessly, too, I would add.

loner-B/c you prefaced your comment ina snarky way...

2009-04-02T14:53:36.707-04:00

loner-

B/c you prefaced your comment ina snarky way I choose not to respond.

PeteKent—Normally, I wouldn't bother, but......whi...

2009-04-02T14:46:44.137-04:00

PeteKent—

Normally, I wouldn't bother, but...

...while his Fed Chairmen applied much more disciplined monetary policy.

Of these matters, I know a thing or two.

And the name of that Fed Chairman? What was he doing while President Reagan sought the job in 1980? How is he keeping busy these days?

Patrick—Fair enough. Personally, I don't see much...

2009-04-02T14:38:26.475-04:00

Patrick—

Fair enough. Personally, I don't see much to differentiate in the commentariat before and after the demise of "Mule Rider". It's great to have no comment moderation (I lost a few during those times) so, as I love polling trolls and hate concern trolls, it's all good right now where I'm concerned.

Dead Cat BounceI am a contrarian when it comes to ...

2009-04-02T14:28:15.273-04:00

Dead Cat Bounce

I am a contrarian when it comes to the current market rally which continued today based on "good news" and positive surprises particularly with regard to factory orders.

The thing to note is that the upticks are off historically very low numbers and thus tend to overstate strength. A sort of a dead cat bounce.

The fundamentals of our economy have turned poor. Unemployment sees no signs of abating -- even if a recovery is in the offing (which I doubt). As a lagging indicator it will take time for businesses to grow the confidence they need to start hiring workers back, particularly with so much governmental/legislative uncertainty.

The rapid and unprecedented expansion of the money supply being engineered by Fed Chairman Bernanke is getting very little play, even as interest rates on Treasury Debt continue to rise. This coupled with the threat of a doubling and then a tripling of the national debt has raised questions about the value of the dollar.

The prognosis for the dollar is poor and this actually can have a short term positive effect as our exports will become relatively cheaper and manufacturing and other exports can expect to pick up as foreign consumers appreciate the price decline they get. Longer term, however, the prognosis is not so good.

The exponential increase in the money supply and the deficit will have only one result: a general rise in interest rates. For a time, Bernanke can tamp this down by soaking up demand at lower rates, but even he knows that at some point he must stop monetizing the debt or threaten hyper-inflation. Right now folks seems to believe that some “reflation” is in order so people are discounting the inflationary risk, but history has shown that this kind of monetary policy, coupled with deficit spending can only result in stagflation – the painful combination of high unemployment and inflation – that we saw in the 1970s – that created untold misery until Reagan came in and cut taxes and unleashed growth while his Fed Chairmen applied much more disciplined monetary policy.

Of these matters, I know a thing or two.

Right now, believe it or not you have a world awash in cash that is seeking a home. The US Treasury still remains the safest place to park it, but sentiment can turn and turn rapidly. Already there are signs that China is seeking to acquire more in the way of tangible assets (witness its move to invest $20 billion in Rio Tinto, the world’s largest mining company). China is turning inward, thinking more and more about the potency of its own consumer market and is rapidly moving to vertically integrate it is economy and reduce its dependency on outside trading partners, including and perhaps most especially the US. My hunch is that China will increasingly begin to abandon the dollar and dollar denominated assets in favor of more tangible investments in its own infrastructure and economy and will finally permit the upward revaluation of its currency that was once long-demanded by its trading partners.

None of that bodes well for our long run future.

I expect an anemic recovery on the order of a couple of points of poz GDP growth during the first half of 2010, with little easing in unemployment that is likely to hit 10% within the next six to twelve months. Depending on when interest rates begin to rise, this recovery will choke off and we will see ourselves slump back down into a much more protracted recession that will only be overcome once the dollar is strengthened and the conditions for investment in the US are fundamentally strengthened.

None of that will come about by continuing the Bush polices of War and deficit spending that Obama seems content not merely to imitate, but to accelerate.

(You can now follow me on Twitter: PeteKent01)

DavidsfrSay what? An elected official trading infl...

2009-04-02T13:58:58.685-04:00

Davidsfr
Say what? An elected official trading influence to land a job for a spouse or child is an illegal act. In fact, its a hell of a lot more serious than an unreported gas grill, because the idea is often to put some person (the spouse or child) into a position to continue as a permanent influence peddler.

Stevens was a master of the patronage, no doubt, but ye in glass houses . . . Just wait until the Murtha network is fully aired in the coming months.

Patrick—Maybe there is truth to that comment from ...

2009-04-02T13:52:32.339-04:00

Patrick—

Maybe there is truth to that comment from John you linked to...

John brought Dirty Harry to mind.

No PorridgeGun on the most-despised list earlier in that thread. How'd that happen?

Jeff, you are comparing apples and oranges when yo...

2009-04-02T13:42:56.926-04:00

Jeff, you are comparing apples and oranges when you compare cronyism and nepotism (senators getting jobs for their friends and families) and actual goods and services rendered that have a monetary value but are unreported, as required by law or regulation. I don't necessarily defend the former, but the later do amount to specific violations.

I don't understand what you mean by "minute parsing" or "courtier feel". But your refence to Obama only being in the 50s in job approval according to Gallup did require very selective data picking.

Because such a tiny % of elections are close enoug...

2009-04-02T13:19:58.795-04:00

Because such a tiny % of elections are close enough that any single vote "counts" in the final tally, I've always clung to an observation once made by George Will: an individual votes not to choose a victor, but by participating in the process you assent to the outcome.

In other words, by voting, you agree that this is the means by which our representatives are chosen. In many ways, that also explains the ease with which the contested 2000 Presidential Election ended...not with a bang (armed revolt) but with a whimper (endless blogging).

As of right now, the DOW, NASDAQ and S&P 500 are a...

2009-04-02T13:00:20.137-04:00

As of right now, the DOW, NASDAQ and S&P 500 are all higher than they were on January 20th.

I thought everyone was supposed to be going Galt?

..................Jan. 20.....Today
DOW.............7949........8056
NASDAQ.........1440.......1618
S&P 500...........805.........843

Davidsfr,I will stipulate to Obama's popularity. I...

2009-04-02T12:57:44.566-04:00

Davidsfr,

I will stipulate to Obama's popularity. I just find the minute parsing of it on this site funny. It has a courtier like feel.

I'm no fan of Stevens, but this dimissal was not a technicality. Nor did it manifest the love of justice, but rather an effort to keep dirty laundy hidden. The reason evidence in the case was hidden was that it was exculpatory. Whether it would have been enough is unclear, but it was very relevant, and impuned the motives of a key prosecution witness.

Stevens was corrupt, but he was almost certainly corrupt in the way Byrd, Dodd, and the rest are corrupt: perfectly legally. I fail to see how his getting a break on his house is somehow worse than Biden snagging jobs for his kids at companies he regulates, or Dodd's gross corruption, or, for that matter, newly elected Senator Obama suddenly discovering a very lucrative (S350,000) a year job at U of C Hospitals that had neither existed previously nor has been filled since.

Perhaps you can provide the moral reasoning to explain the differences here. The GOP is no more corrupt in this sense than the Dems, as the crony capitalism of the latter's Bank Bill is making increasingly clear.

Solar irradiance at 12 year low!Sunapot minimum no...

2009-04-02T12:45:31.608-04:00

Solar irradiance at 12 year low!

Sunapot minimum now at least at 100 year low!

This is not a global warming scenario, but it sure points to climate change if it continues, just not the change we were planning for...

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/01apr_deepsolarminimum.htm

Obama wins!!! Markets continue surge!!!

2009-04-02T11:02:46.139-04:00

Obama wins!!! Markets continue surge!!!

Patrick—And this from someone who loathes MR.Of co...

2009-04-02T10:47:30.049-04:00

Patrick—

And this from someone who loathes MR.

Of course you do. Is this the end of Smoking Aces?

Oh well--59% for one day!Today he is back at 60, o...

2009-04-02T09:46:00.705-04:00

Oh well--59% for one day!

Today he is back at 60, or at leas that is the most recent number posted at pollster.com, probably actually yesterday's number. The 59I expect was from the day before.

And please, don't claim that Stevens was innocent or didn't deserve to lose his election. His case was droppedd on a technicality--misconduct by the prosecutors appointed by Bush. This in no way exonerates him, he was rightfully convicted, but because this administration actually cares about justice and doing things right, he's getting a pass.

David,Gallup Poll, 3/30:http://www.gallup.com/poll...

2009-04-02T09:17:00.105-04:00

David,
Gallup Poll, 3/30:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Job-Approval.aspx

This is the standard point of comparison that was being used to "disprove" Rasmussen. Yesterday it had him at 59.

Jeff, say what? USA Today/Gallup Poll 3/27-29Obama...

2009-04-02T09:04:59.628-04:00

Jeff, say what?

USA Today/Gallup Poll 3/27-29

Obama Job Approval
64% approve, 30% disapprove

Time to update the Senate rankings Nate. Dodd shou...

2009-04-02T08:54:06.931-04:00

Time to update the Senate rankings Nate. Dodd should be up there with Specter. The Courant has him trailing three GOPers, including Simmons by 16 points! Bye bye.

The GOP will have to wait 5 years, alas, to take back the Alaska seat stolen by prosecutorial corruption. What a disgrace. But he's just a Republican, why worry about his rights.

As for Obama's polls, I can't help but notice that Gallup isn't the gold standard it once was around here now that they are down in the 50s with Rasmussen and NPR.

PorridgeGun said... Diageo/Hotline Poll: Obama at...

2009-04-02T02:36:45.912-04:00

PorridgeGun said...

Diageo/Hotline Poll: Obama at 63, Right/Wrong Track Improving

***********
this is a good news for JOHN MccAIN !!!!
:)

PeteKent said... I try tried to be thoughful in m...

2009-04-02T02:33:53.304-04:00

PeteKent said...

I try tried to be thoughful in my post

**************

You kan't Ken't.
Sorry...
:)

I'm confused about the 400 years #with 6 instances...

2009-04-02T02:10:40.400-04:00

I'm confused about the 400 years #
with 6 instances of 0 through 9 vote differential in 93 years would sugest an average of once every 155 years. 49 instances of 0 through 99 vote differential in 93 years would sujest one tie ever 190 years. I just don't get the 400 #