Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: A Senior Surge?

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Why not make the argument about women and Latinos ...

2008-05-29T19:22:00.000-04:00

Why not make the argument about women and Latinos -- which ain't a bad argument at all -- and leave it at that?

The answer is two-fold.

1. The Clinton campaign has proven over the past few months that they will say and do anything to benefit themselves. If stretching the truth on the senior vote helps, then stretching the truth is what they'll do.

2. They're subtly sending the signal to the supers that Obama has trouble with old people.

In the face of willful ignorance (hosertohoosier, ...

2008-05-29T12:52:00.000-04:00

In the face of willful ignorance (hosertohoosier, Anon@17:31 et al) perhaps some plainer language will help:

Clinton's statistical argument here, like her "Popular Vote" meme, is bullshit, plain & simple. Both in terms of the data chosen (caucus states don't count; using 45+ instead of 65+ or even 50+, which are her actual strengths) and in the analysis applied, this is blatantly illogical crap pedaled by people who surely know better, but lack the moral compass to care.

Using raw numbers here is just idiotic. A zillion factors (Bush, press, $$, competitiveness, etc) have driven up turnout across the board. But the increase has skewed in such a way that older voters are not as overrepresented as before -- otherwise Clinton would be winning.

As Poblano points out, they had other halfway-plausible arguments to make, but they just.can't.stop.lying.

Rock the Vote has released a two-page fact sheet o...

2008-05-29T11:15:00.000-04:00

Rock the Vote has released a two-page fact sheet on youth turnout in the primaries (PDF) that will help with this debate.

In both the Republican and Democratic primaries 18-29 year old voters have increased their vote share compared to the previous presidential primaries (2004 for Ds, 2000 for Rs). So even though turnout is rising across the board, young voters are becoming increasingly influential in the primaries.

Also keep in mind that this is not a new trend - young voter turnout was up in 2006 and 2004 as well. For more analysis check out rockthevote.com/research.

As a matter of fact, there is precedent of a compe...

2008-05-29T06:46:00.000-04:00

As a matter of fact, there is precedent of a competitive Puerto Rico Democratic Primary:

1980- Jimmy Carter vs Ted Kennedy

870.000 voters

Carter won 52-48%

Therefore, turnout might be quite high in the PR primary this time.

The result is anyone's guess, but I think that the Clinton victory margins are somewhat overrated and could very well turn in a single-digits victory.

Anon I've been talking to... you are making me I t...

2008-05-28T23:08:00.000-04:00

Anon I've been talking to... you are making me I think I may have overestimated the spanish effect and underestimated the novelty effect. I went and checked some of my indicators of campaign voter involvement (local news coverage, campaign events (both candidate and non-candidate), and online campaign group membership...) It's hard for me to get as good a feel on especially the news coverage one, because it's all in spanish, but I think they're more involved there than I originally thought. While I hold by my under 1 million number, I'm now thinking more like 500-750K.

I didn't say they'd be uninformed either, but I do...

2008-05-28T22:35:00.000-04:00

I didn't say they'd be uninformed either, but I don't accept your point about connecting. This is a special occasion for PR. The only presidential candidates they (were) likely to get would be English-speaking. That doesn't mean they won't turn out.

So I'd take the over in your guestimate of turnout. How much more? My guestimate would be coming from the same place yours is -- the air.

I wasn't saying they're UNINFORMED because they sp...

2008-05-28T22:18:00.000-04:00

I wasn't saying they're UNINFORMED because they speak spanish. I'm just saying they won't CONNECT as much with the candidates, who don't speak fluent spanish.

In any case, turnout will be below 1 million.

I follow you up to a point. But the fact that they...

2008-05-28T22:04:00.000-04:00

I follow you up to a point. But the fact that they speak Spanish or are not closely connected with or exposed to "English speaking candidates" doesn't lead me to the conclusion that turnout will be low.

From what I can tell there has been a lot of media exposure to the candidates both in "news" and advertising in Spanish. (Read DailyKos for some background.)

Both candidates have pushed for programs and initiatives of interest to Puerto Ricans.

So I think there's every reason to expect high turnout -- it's who they will vote for that's more unpredictable.

The PR polling is obviously slightly better than w...

2008-05-28T21:41:00.000-04:00

The PR polling is obviously slightly better than worthless. However, in my opinion, not by much.

First, the poll's sample size. To get a margin of error, you want a sample size up around 400+. 300 is a bit low.

Second, the Poll seems to lean on undecided REALLY hard. The %Cinton + %Obama equals 99%. In fact, I bet they didn't even list undecided as an option. and I think that underestimates some of the potential movement.

Second, voter turnout / demographic models. There is no precedent of Peurto Rico voting in a competitive Primary, or even General Election, so it's hard to predict who the "likely voters" are. as for absolute turnout, I have no more than 1 million... PR has an over 18 population of just under 3 mil, and even in these competitive open primaries, we haven't seen over one third eligible turnout. (IN and NC, for example, were about 25% eligible turnout. In fact, I bet it's probably gonna be something under 500K, because most people in PR speak spanish, and haven't gotten as much exposure / connection with the (english speaking) candidates. And yes, it's a bit of a novelty there, but still, Plus, it's not like they've been campaigning all over the state for weeks.

Veering a bit off topic, I suspect Obama's gonna get no worse than 40%, because of the Islander thing.

Poblano: I just saw a new poll on Puerto Rico tha...

2008-05-28T21:07:00.000-04:00

Poblano: I just saw a new poll on Puerto Rico that shows Clinton +20. It is here:

http://www.pollster.com/

Is this poll a piece of crap or do you give it some weight? Any opinions of how PR will go down?

Another poll showing McCain +4 in Michigan.EPIC/MR...

2008-05-28T20:40:00.000-04:00

Another poll showing McCain +4 in Michigan.

EPIC/MRA

McCain 44%
Obama 40%

http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080528/METRO/805280446/1361

Even your own electoral college map has been chang...

2008-05-28T20:31:00.000-04:00

Even your own electoral college map has been changing constantly. So these maps mean ABSOLUTELY NOTHING at this stage.

The experts she's quoting are the same experts who predicted she would inevitably win the nominaton. The polls she's referencing are the same pollsters who gave her 20+ points in all state and national polls.

If Clinton is the strongest candidate, why is she where she is today? She had the upperhand on EVRYTHING - money, name recognition, familiarity, establishment support, etc and SHE COULDN"T WIN.

How the hell is she going to beat McCain in a contest where her name will no longer be an asset?

Truth is: OBAMA KNOWS HOW TO WIN; Hillary knows how to lose!

So in fact, pretty much the opposite of what she s...

2008-05-28T20:00:00.000-04:00

So in fact, pretty much the opposite of what she said is true, namely it is the base favoring Obama that has increased in percentage terms! This seems to be the commonly held view, but its good to have this data to reference.

incidentally... Does she think that these super delegates... the same group who have been hounded every day since Obama's runaway wins back in March... the same cohort who must by now be familiar with all the contours of this race... she thinks that they will buy this erroneous nonsense?

The Clinton memo has a point, and so does your ana...

2008-05-28T19:22:00.000-04:00

The Clinton memo has a point, and so does your analysis. But superdelegates don't care about % increases. They care about the #s, and they know how many of each of these demographic groups are in each other's coalition. Hillary Clinton can claim a decent chunk of these three demographic groups as hers at this stage in the primary, and they will jump ship if the superdelegates don't do whatever it is that Hillary wants. So I think this is an argument to think long and hard about angering all these (numerically) newly engaged seniors, who total up to be about the same as all the newly engaged young voters. It's saying, don't forget about the WHOLE coalition, and I think it is an excellent argument for making her VP to keep the "Clinton new voters" as motivated much as the "Obama new voters (young + black voters).

There was actually a very large turnout of young v...

2008-05-28T19:20:00.000-04:00

There was actually a very large turnout of young voters in key swing states like Ohio in 2004. Check the exit polls. The % of the electorate of young voters was really high (around 22% or so if I recall). Unlikely it will be much higher than that this year (especially if the resultant Clinton-driven senior + women + Latino increase defects partially to McCain and turns out too).

I enjoyed your counterfactual analysis of "What if...

2008-05-28T19:18:00.000-04:00

I enjoyed your counterfactual analysis of "What if..." turnout increased among young, Latino, and black voters compared to 2004, but why didn't you do the same analysis for women (and seniors). We can see how much better Clinton will do against McCain, hypothetically, compared to Kerry vs. Bush in 2004. If she has these % increases as nominee, what does it mean. Alternatively, why not do the counterfactual scenario where youth and black turnout go up w/ Obama vs. McCain, but there is a resultant turnout increase for McCain among women, Latinos, and seniors (given the raw feelings among these three groups and Obama after the primary). Why not assume these groups vote 10%, 20%, 30% more GOP than normal without Clinton on the ticket, and see if the young + black voter turnout increase still offsets these other demographic defectors to the Republicans.

I agree with hosertohoosier. First of all, I real...

2008-05-28T19:14:00.000-04:00

I agree with hosertohoosier. First of all, I really like your analysis. I think you have done a spectacular job. In fact, I think you may have been cited (but not by name) in the memo--when they mention poll analyses showing Clinton with over 300 electoral votes.

But anyway, the point they were trying to make is to think about all the new voters, including three critical groups in the Dem. coalition for the general. It is not "particularly misleading" as you claim. I think you might do a better job here if you'd be more objective in reporting (why not just say "Their claims should be dissected, and it depends no whether you look at % increase or numeric increase." It is much more balanced.

Anywya, seniors have numerically risen in primary turnout, even though no one is talking about it. These new senior voters count just as much as all the new young voter on the numeric comparisons. And we all know these seniors matter in the general (as a %) more than young voters based on past experience. That's why increasing seniors as much as young voters, can marginally make the difference if they are in your camp. And then, as you explain, the evidence for % and numeric increases in Latinos (which is definitely attributable to Clinton in Texas and California, of not elsewhere--the evidence of that is pretty incontrovertible) and women also help her cause.

The point on seniors is, what coalition of "new" voters wins the general? A lot of new senior voters is a significant achievement, as much as the # of new young voters.

Anonymous @ 5:27 -- Now you're just making stuff u...

2008-05-28T18:33:00.000-04:00

Anonymous @ 5:27 -- Now you're just making stuff up.

in 2000 a huge turn out of students at the primary...

2008-05-28T18:27:00.000-04:00

in 2000 a huge turn out of students at the primary,but not the election bush won. in 2004 a huge turnout over students at the primary not the election bush won.2008 a huge turnout of students at the primary .can oyu say deja vu. the fact is older voters vote and younger ones dont.