Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Senate Rankings, February 2009 Edition

Nate writes of Illinois: "if another Democrat lik...

2009-02-14T21:38:00.000-05:00

Nate writes of Illinois: "if another Democrat like Jan Schakowsky or Alexi Guannoulias upends Burris in the primary, as is somewhat likely, the GOP's path becomes very difficult." I love my Congresswoman Jan, and my local hot dog stand guy Leo loves his fellow Greek Alexi, but if Burris loses the primary don't we have a problem with pissed-off African Americans? And can Democrats win an off-year election if the African-Americans stay home?

I'm disgusted about my home state, Oklahoma. Wher...

2009-02-11T22:48:00.000-05:00

I'm disgusted about my home state, Oklahoma. Where else could an ultra right-wing Republican who insists homosexuality is the biggest threat to America's freedom (Tom Coburn) beat a respected moderate Democrat (Brad Carson) who had been a Rhodes Scholar and White House Fellow? That's what happened in '04.

Conway will be a strong Dem candidate in Kentucky....

2009-02-11T11:55:00.000-05:00

Conway will be a strong Dem candidate in Kentucky. He brought his A-game against Northup in 2002 and almost won in a tough cycle.

Chandler has solidified support in a blue district and I can't imagine him jumping into a Senate race in 2010.

My 2010 ranking1)MO(OPEN-Bond-R)Carnahan-D2)NH(OPE...

2009-02-10T20:38:00.000-05:00

My 2010 ranking
1)MO(OPEN-Bond-R)Carnahan-D
2)NH(OPEN-Newman-R)Hodes-D
3)OH(OPEN-Voinovich-R)-Fisher/Ryan-D
4)FL(OPEN-Martinez-R)-Meek/Gelber-D
5)KY(Bunning-R)-Mongiordo/Conway-D
6)NC(Burr-R)-Cooper/Shuler-D
7)PA(Specter-R)-Schwartz-D
8)CO-(Bennett-D)
9)IL-(Burris-D)-Giannoulias/Schakowsky-D
10)KS-(OPEN-Brownback-R)
11)LA-(Vitter-R)
12)NV-(Reid-D)
13)AZ-(McCain-R)
14)CT-(Dodd-D)
15)TX-(VACANT Hutchison-R)
16)NY-B(Gillibrand-D)
17)DE-(OPEN-Kaufman-D)-Biden-D
18)AK-(Murkowski-R)
19)SD-(Thune-R)
20)AR-(Lincoln-D)
21)SC-(DeMint-R)
22)OK-(Coburn-R)
23)GA-(Isakson-R)
24)CA-(Boxer-D)
25)WA-(Murray-D)
26)WI-(Feingold-D)
27)IA-(Grassley-R)
28)ND-(Dorgan-D)
29)IN-(Bayh-D)
30)AL-(Shelby-R)
31)MD-(Mikulski-D)
32)OR-(Wyden-D)
33)UT-(Bennett-D)
34)HI-(Inouye-D)
35)VT-(Leahy-D)
36)NY-(Schumer-D)
37)ID-(Crapo-R)

Following up on the Sen. Dodd comment above, here ...

2009-02-10T10:53:00.000-05:00

Following up on the Sen. Dodd comment above, here is a new poll that came out today (2/10):

http://www.courant.com/news/politics/hcu-qpoll-0210,0,4411573.story

Sen. Christopher J. Dodd's effort to resolve his mortgage controversy appeared to backfire last week, while Gov. M. Jodi Rell's got a 75-percent job-approval rating after releasing her budget, a new poll shows.

A Quinnipiac University poll released today showed Rell getting high marks for addressing the economy, but Dodd's explanation of getting what Countrywide Financial deemed to be a VIP mortgage dissatisfied voters by a wide margin.

Dodd got his worst approval rating ever in the Quinnipiac poll: 41 percent approve and 48 percent disapprove of his performance and 51 percent say they are likely to vote against him next year.

Those are atrocious numbers for a long serving incumbent D in a left-of-center state. Dodd may be the Burns of 2010: friendly state, long history of success, scandal that is mishandled and mushrooms, etc.

Nate, I don't know if you'll still checking commen...

2009-02-10T10:13:00.000-05:00

Nate, I don't know if you'll still checking comments here. But I think you may be blind to the danger that Sen. Dodd (D-CT) is facing.

The local media in CT are following his sweetheart deal with Countrywide much closer than the national media. His approval ratings are under 50% for the first time in memorable history. And his re-elect numbers aren't great.

I don't think his seat should be top 5. But he is much closer to #10 than where you have him.

And while Gov. Rell (R-CT) would be the GOP's top choice. Rep. Shays and Rep. Johnson are well known and have a solid following. Against a non-scandalized D, they would be underdogs. But if Sen. Dodd continues to refuse to release his mortgage papers, the trust he has built up will continue to disappear.

In the Kentucky race, Mongiardo is a homophobe (sp...

2009-02-10T08:06:00.000-05:00

In the Kentucky race, Mongiardo is a homophobe (sponsored the anti-marriage amendment just so everyone would know he is straight) and supports mountaintop removal. I didn't vote in his last race against Bunning, and I'm not voting in it again if he is the candidate. We can do better.

Blue State Republican Senate Seats up for grabs in...

2009-02-10T01:17:00.000-05:00

Blue State Republican Senate Seats up for grabs in 2010.
1)PA-(Specter-R)
2)NH-(OPEN-Newman-R)-Sen Elect.Paul Hodes-D
3)IA-(Grassley-R)
Purple State Republican Senate Seats up for grabs in 2010.
4)OH-(OPEN-Voinovich-R)-Sen Elect.Lee Fisher-D or Tim Ryan-D
5)FL-(OPEN-Martinez-R)- No Clear Favorite.
6)NC-(Burr-R)-No Clear Favorite
7)MO-(OPEN-Bond-R)-Sen Elect Robin Carnahan-D)

Nate,I understand that you just report the facts l...

2009-02-09T22:30:00.000-05:00

Nate,
I understand that you just report the facts like Joe Friday ..like you see them. However, I hope that the Vitter saga hasn't been played out yet. I don't believe it will be over until his hooker is on TV with Diane Sawyer. Someone down and dirty like Larry Flynt will step up and offer some money to Vitter's hooker for her rightful 15 minutes of fame. Vitter will not run again once that happens if he's smart which of course he's not. The guy was paying for hookers with his senate salary while katrina was hitting his state and his wife and kids were in church. That's not gonna look good on a commercial.

2010 US Senate Rankings1)NH(OPEN-Newman-R)2)MO(OPE...

2009-02-09T21:00:00.000-05:00

2010 US Senate Rankings
1)NH(OPEN-Newman-R)
2)MO(OPEN-Bond-R)
3)OH(OPEN-Voinovich-R)
4)FL(OPEN-Martinez-R)
5)KY(Bunning-R)
6)NC(Burr-R)
7)PA(Specter-R)
8)CO(Bennet-D)
9)IL(Burris-D)
10)KS(OPEN-Brownback-R)
11)NV(Reid-D)
12)TX(Vacant-Hutchison-R)
13)LA(Vitter-R)
14)NY(Gillibrand-D)
15)IA(Grassley-R)
16)AZ(McCain-R)
17)DE(OPEN-Kaufman-D)
18)OK(Coburn-R)
19)SC(DeMint-R)
20)GA(Isakson-R)
21)AR(Lincoln-D)
22)SD(Thune-R)
23)CA(Boxer-D)
24)WA(Murray-D)
25)WI(Feingold-D)
26)AK(Murkowski-R)
27)ND(Dorgan-D)
28)IN(Bayh-D)
29)AL(Shelby-R)
30)MD(Mikulski-D)
31)CT(Dodd-D)
32)OR(Wyden-D)
33)UT(Bennett-R)
34)HI(Inouye-D)
35)VT(Leahy-D)
36)NY(Schumer-D)
37)ID(Crapo-R)

I agree, coolstar, and thanks to Michael for speci...

2009-02-09T18:05:00.000-05:00

I agree, coolstar, and thanks to Michael for specifying five issues that Reid is criticized for. As I continue reading Reid's book I will look for those sections and see what the contexts of those decisions were.

PLEASE: the only people who think Harry Reid will ...

2009-02-09T15:40:00.000-05:00

PLEASE: the only people who think Harry Reid will have a tough time in 2010 are people who know NOTHING about Nevada politics! He'll win by his widest margin ever (all of his races have been extremely to fairly close so far). Nevada is an increasingly BLUE state (gee, anyone stay up for the returns Nov. 4)? Huge democratic registration advantage, no viable Rethug candidate in sight (maybe Jon Porter will run, god, I hope so!), Republican IDIOT governor who is LOATHED by EVERYONE.
Only possible thing for Harry to worry about would be a primary challenge from the LEFT. I'm sure many in the blogosphere would hope for that, but in NV, not a snowball's chance.

TSAMT,What fabulous bullshit. This isn't the Civil...

2009-02-09T11:29:00.000-05:00

TSAMT,

What fabulous bullshit. This isn't the Civil War or anything remotely like it. There are no copperheads today because there's no civil war to oppose.

Sure, we're a divided country in terms of political opinion. yet, the Red States and the Blue states keep shifting. Indiana was red in 2004, now it's blue. There's no set list of states that are all ready to take up arms and commit treason against the Federal Government together, is there? Nobody's arming for war.

So there's no copperheads. Which means Obama is not a copperhead. But I guess it just sounds impressive to say over the top attention getting things like that, doesn't it? Sure beats having to think of a compelling argument.

Spartaaaaa!

Texas isn't up unless Hutchinson resigns from the ...

2009-02-09T11:08:00.000-05:00

Texas isn't up unless Hutchinson resigns from the Senate early enough to force a special election... I don't see her challenging Perry in a primary and yet giving him the political capital which would come with the power to appoint her replacement. There's no upside for her there. Speculation about her resigning early predated Perry's decision to run for a third term.

obama is More like a Copperhead to me than Lincoln...

2009-02-09T10:49:00.000-05:00

obama is More like a Copperhead to me than Lincoln

Spartaaaaa

2009-02-09T09:19:00.000-05:00

Spartaaaaa

My gawd,I've never been so bewildered in my life t...

2009-02-09T09:13:00.000-05:00

My gawd,

I've never been so bewildered in my life that people are using my words of support and encouragement as if they were a campaign endorsement. Next thing you know MIM's going to have a logo in his profile that says "Statler N Waldorf Seal of Approval"

The thing shocks me even more is that none of you have said, "Who cares if SnW likes you or not?" or "Well, who the fuck is SnW to judge anyway?"

If I knew I could gain this much influence just by posting random drivel on 538, I'd have signed on years ago.

Well, might as well put it to use. My legions of followers, my digital army, attack! Grab thy telephones and annoy thy Senators to pass this Stimulating Package of Presidential Prowess! Take no prisoners! keep hitting redial till we crash the Congressional Switchboard! Tonight we dine in hell! This is Spartaaaaaaaa!

Spartaaaa!

Statler will also tell you that I'm 'a little roug...

2009-02-09T08:32:00.000-05:00

Statler will also tell you that I'm 'a little rough around the edges.' I disagree with that observation. I'm blunt and sarcastic, but I post in that manner to make a point - to make the person THINK about the facts before they post.

Arguing like a 5-year old isn't "blunt and sarcastic," it's childish. Comments should be attempt to be up to the standard of Nate's work, not infantile trading back and forth of insults like "Dumbocrats" or "Rethuglicans" or "Libtards" or "Goopers."

I don't know Nate as well as the original crew of BP authors, but writing a lot myself, I can't imagine much that makes a writer unhappier than putting a lot of work into something and seeing the immediate response of one's most loyal readers acting like grade-schoolers. I would wager that Nate doesn't feel that differently.

Besides, if you're going to be snarky, you better at least do good snark. Bill O'Lielly? Really? That's even lamer than Nancy Pelooser, which is a preetty high bar.

@Mike in Maryland,Oh, well. I gave you a chance to...

2009-02-09T08:19:00.000-05:00

@Mike in Maryland,

Oh, well. I gave you a chance to prove you were a mature person who had simply overreacted; now you have shown your true colors. But as they say, "No more Mr. Nice Guy." I warned you that I'm a tough debater. I was holding back before. No longer.

You are correct that I overlooked President Grant. But so did you. Grant was pointed out by another poster, after you had written your first way-over-the-top response to my argument.

Apart from Grant, there was nothing inaccurate about my statement. Your objections consisted of the following:

1) You hadn't said whether any president before FDR had tried to run for a third term; you had simply said no one before FDR was elected to a third term. Fair enough. This has nothing to do with "accuracy," but with clarifying your original argument.

2) I "disprove my own message" by mentioning an exception. Or, as you put it in your latest post, "if it IS a rule, then there ARE no exceptions." I'm tempted to say that statement doesn't dignify a response, but I'm game. Look up the word "exception" in the dictionary, particularly the second definition: "an instance or case not conforming to the general rule." Or, for that matter, look up the word "rule": "the customary or normal circumstance, occurrence, manner, practice, quality, etc.: the rule rather than the exception." Rules can have exceptions. Pretending not to know this basic fact of...well, the English language, is a far more serious error than not knowing Grant sought a third term.

3) Your parenthetical comment that "it would have been only the second election in which he ran for President - he was President from 1901 to 1905 only because McKinley had been assassinated, FYI." It's true that your original message only talked about presidents who ran three times; however, all I said was that TR sought a third term, which is true. You seem to think I was ignorant of the fact that TR first succeeded to the presidency following McKinley's death. The funny thing is, I actually have proof that I did know that before you mentioned it. Go to my Yahoo Answers profile, and scroll down to "My Answers," and the first answer is to the question, "For how many years was Roosevelt president?" The user did not clarify which Roosevelt he was asking about, so I gave him the answer for both, but I clearly said that TR succeeded to the presidency following McKinley's death. (Unfortunately, the answer is currently "in voting," so it doesn't currently display my user name, but it will in about thirteen hours.)

Apparently, the fact that we disagreed on these largely definitional issues proves that I'm an ignoramus who watches Fox News.

And just for your information, that was sarcasm. Accusing someone who challenged you on one small point of historical trivia of "spout[ing] the worn-out, or patently false, rantings of Lush Rimbaugh, Bill O'Lielly or Faux News" doesn't constitute sarcasm, it constitutes being a dick.

Mike, do you really think it's only Republicans wh...

2009-02-09T05:08:00.000-05:00

Mike, do you really think it's only Republicans who don't have their facts in order? I know I've had conversations with liberals and radical leftists who spout off a lot of nonsense as well as Republicans who spout off a lot of nonsense. And for what it's worth, my Congressman is Jerrold Nadler, and I agree with almost everything he says and does. (He's one of the most liberal members of Congress, thank goodness.)

Kylopod,As Statler will tell you, if someone prese...

2009-02-09T04:05:00.000-05:00

Kylopod,

As Statler will tell you, if someone present inaccurate information and I see it, there's a good probability that I will challenge that person on it. I don't care if you have many or most of the same political viewpoints that I do, I WILL CALL YOU ON INACCURACIES if and when I see them.

Statler will also tell you that I'm 'a little rough around the edges.' I disagree with that observation. I'm blunt and sarcastic, but I post in that manner to make a point - to make the person THINK about the facts before they post.

The major mistake you made was saying 'Up to that point, no one had ever tried to run for a third term except Teddy Roosevelt on a third-party ticket.'

That was in response to my statement that 'no person was elected to more than two terms in office.' And then it was pointed out that US Grant had his name placed into nomination at the 1876 Republican National Convention. So your 'no one' was disproved by you by mentioning TR, then Gavstern pointed out US Grant's attempt in 1876. I don't call that 'no one', especially when they occurred within 36 years of each other.

You also failed when you said you were 'stating a rule followed by an exception.' You were not 'stating a rule followed by an exception', because if it IS a rule, then there ARE no exceptions.

If you are who and what you say you are, then realize that, in my eyes, those who don't get the facts in order are the ones throwing propaganda, and they are almost always GOOPers. Continue to throw out inaccurate information and then take offense if it is corrected, and I WILL call you on it. Keep doing it, even on minor points, and I'll treat you like I treat GOOPers - with disdain, rebuttal of their arguments with FACTS, and more disdain.

And Statler, you and I may disagree on how I present points, but that's (usually) water under the bridge, as we almost always agree on the main points. Just stop your exaggerating to make points!!

Mark, I don't think it's his appearance that bugs ...

2009-02-09T02:02:00.000-05:00

Mark, I don't think it's his appearance that bugs so many liberals. It's the fact that he caved in over and over on vital issues of substance, such as the Iraq War, torture, supposed Executive privilege, domestic spying, extremist judicial appointments such as Alito, etc., etc. Just compare how stiff Republican resistance is now with how limp the Democratic _majority_ was for the last 2 years of GW's presidency.

I recommend Harry Reid's book "The Good Fight." I...

2009-02-09T01:51:00.000-05:00

I recommend Harry Reid's book "The Good Fight." It's a very good read and you may find out why the Dem. senators rally behind him and keep choosing him as their leader. He's very blunt in the book--says Barbara Bush is a bitch, Specter is always with you til you need him, etc. Happily he managed to get Specter's vote this time. Just go to the library and read the chapter on Reid's childhood in Searchlight, Nev. Terrible tough years, but great writing and funny, too.

By the way there's a good New Yorker profile of Reid online --Hillary is quoted as saying "Harry Reid has a spine of steel." His appearance belies his character and ability. I think he'll have no trouble getting re-elected.

sigh I don't know whether to laugh or cry. The i...

2009-02-09T00:26:00.000-05:00

*sigh* I don't know whether to laugh or cry. The idea that I'm parroting right-wing talking points and proving the brainlessness of the GOP is sadly hilarious to anyone who knows me, or simply bothers to click on my name and take a look at my blog.

But since you apparently didn't get the hints in my last post, I guess I have to be more explicit.

I am not, and have never been, a GOPer. I'm a lifelong Democrat, a staunch Obama supporter, and an admirer of Nate Silver's site--which is why I'm here. I have hardly ever listened to Limbaugh, O'Reilly, or Fox News. I have read several of Al Franken's books, though.

Why you assumed otherwise is really curious to me. All I did was challenge one small point of yours within a post I generally agreed with. And it was hardly over a partisan matter.

I've been reading and occasionally commenting on this site for some time, and I've noticed your name before, because I'm from Maryland too. I thought, if anything, that we could share a few points based on our common residence.

I have an unfortunate tendency to nitpick, and although I am a skilled debater, I tend to favor analysis over polemics. My comments were in no way intended as an attack on you, and I was even half-expecting that somebody might correct me and name some earlier presidents who ran for a third term. That would not have bothered me, because I enjoy learning new things, and I am in particular a junkie for presidential trivia. I honestly wasn't trying to "win" the argument, but simply engaging in a casual analysis of one point.

You have vastly misread my intentions. I hope you will reconsider your initial reaction to me, because we probably have a lot more common than you realize.

Mike in Maryland - Kylopod was making a valid, acc...

2009-02-09T00:19:00.000-05:00

Mike in Maryland -

Kylopod was making a valid, accurate, and nonpartisan point about your example that for much of the 19th and early 20th century, most candidates didn't have the opportunity and desire to run for a third term.

It wasn't a personal attack nor "right-wing talking points." There may be plenty of uninformed conservatives in the world to criticize, but let's try not to lump anyone who disagrees with you into that group.

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Senate Rankings, February 2009 Edition

Nate writes of Illinois: "if another Democrat lik...

I'm disgusted about my home state, Oklahoma. Wher...

Conway will be a strong Dem candidate in Kentucky....

My 2010 ranking1)MO(OPEN-Bond-R)Carnahan-D2)NH(OPE...

Following up on the Sen. Dodd comment above, here ...

Nate, I don't know if you'll still checking commen...

In the Kentucky race, Mongiardo is a homophobe (sp...

Blue State Republican Senate Seats up for grabs in...

Nate,I understand that you just report the facts l...

2010 US Senate Rankings1)NH(OPEN-Newman-R)2)MO(OPE...

I agree, coolstar, and thanks to Michael for speci...

PLEASE: the only people who think Harry Reid will ...

TSAMT,What fabulous bullshit. This isn't the Civil...

Texas isn't up unless Hutchinson resigns from the ...

obama is More like a Copperhead to me than Lincoln...

Spartaaaaa

My gawd,I've never been so bewildered in my life t...

Statler will also tell you that I'm 'a little roug...

@Mike in Maryland,Oh, well. I gave you a chance to...

Mike, do you really think it's only Republicans wh...

Kylopod,As Statler will tell you, if someone prese...

Mark, I don't think it's his appearance that bugs ...

I recommend Harry Reid's book "The Good Fight." I...

*sigh* I don't know whether to laugh or cry. The i...

Mike in Maryland - Kylopod was making a valid, acc...

sigh I don't know whether to laugh or cry. The i...