Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: CNN Video

酒店經紀人, 菲梵酒店經紀, 酒店經紀, 禮服酒店上班, 酒店小姐兼職, 便服酒店經紀, ...

2009-10-09T03:16:12.691-04:00

酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店經紀,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店工作,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
菲
梵,

艾葳酒店經紀公司提供專業的酒店經紀, 酒店上班小姐,八大行業,酒店兼職,傳播妹,或者想要到打工兼差、...

2009-09-09T23:38:01.572-04:00

艾葳酒店經紀公司提供專業的酒店經紀, 酒店上班小姐,八大行業,酒店兼職,傳播妹,或者想要到打工兼差、打工,兼差,或者八大行業,酒店兼職,想去酒店上班, 日式酒店,制服酒店,ktv酒店,禮服店,整天穿得水水漂漂的,還是想去制服店當上班小姐,水水們如果想要擁有打工工作、晚上兼差工作、兼差打工、假日兼職、兼職工作、酒店兼差、兼差、打工兼差、日領工作、晚上兼差工作、酒店工作、酒店上班、酒店打工、兼職、兼差、兼差工作、酒店上班等,想了解酒店相關工作和特種行業內容,想兼職工作日領、假日兼職、兼差打工、或晚班兼職想擁有快速賺錢又有保障的工作嗎???又可以現領請找專業又有保障的艾葳酒店經紀公司!

艾葳酒店經紀是合法的公司工作環境高雅時尚，無業績壓力，無脫秀無喝酒壓力，高層次會員制客源，工作輕鬆，可日領、現領。
一般的酒店經紀只會在水水們第一次上班和領薪水時出現而已，對水水們的上班安全一點保障都沒有！艾葳酒店經紀公司的水水們上班時全程媽咪作陪，不需擔心！只提供最優質的酒店上班,酒店上班,酒店打工環境、上班條件給水水們。心動嗎!? 趕快來填寫你的酒店上班履歷表

水水們妳有缺現領、有兼職、缺錢卡奴的煩腦嗎?想到日本留學缺錢嗎?妳是傳播妹??想要擁有高時薪又輕鬆的夜間兼職工作,打工機會和,假日打工,假日兼職賺錢的機會嗎??想實現夢想卻又缺錢沒錢嗎!??
艾葳酒店台北酒店經紀招兵買馬!!徵專業的酒店打工,想要去酒店的水水,想要短期日領,酒店日領,禮服酒店,制服店,酒店經紀,ktv酒店,便服店,酒店工作,禮服店,酒店小姐,酒店經紀人,
等相關服務幫您快速的實現您的夢想~!!

^^ nice blog!! ^@^徵信, 徵信, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社...

2009-03-11T04:51:00.000-04:00

^^ nice blog!! thanks a lot! ^^徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社, 徵信...

2009-03-11T04:50:00.000-04:00

情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,...

2009-02-11T22:48:00.000-05:00

What does 15.9% for Ohio mean in your Tipping Poi...

2008-06-14T09:57:00.000-04:00

What does 15.9% for Ohio mean in your Tipping Point States Table? ...and 83.8% for Ohio in the Must-Win States table.

Do you have an explanation for these somewhere?

Good interview. The one thing I noticed was that ...

2008-06-14T08:53:00.000-04:00

Good interview. The one thing I noticed was that the CNN people didn't look to hard at the site. If they had, they might have noticed that you have CO and NM flipping, and NV as a toss-up, too. I do agree with your analysis that the election will come down to whomever can pull off OH, PA and MI.

Wow, I just imagined a political show with Rachel ...

2008-06-13T23:57:00.000-04:00

Wow, I just imagined a political show with Rachel Maddow and Nate! We'd have trustworthy information.

Nate, congratulations. I thought your CNN appearance was exceptional given the constant interruptions. Wish we could have heard a bit more from you and a lot less from them.

Marie

Good point Stephen C. Rose, were Poblano a regular...

2008-06-13T23:23:00.000-04:00

Good point Stephen C. Rose, were Poblano a regular guest analyst on Air America he would also have a pragmatic avenue to always be around Rachel Maddow.

Actually with all the advice about CNN and MSNBC w...

2008-06-13T23:12:00.000-04:00

Actually with all the advice about CNN and MSNBC why not PBS and NPR -- not as big a reach but a better chance of making a serious impact. Cheers, S

Yeah, make sure no one gets the idea you're a CNN-...

2008-06-13T22:38:00.000-04:00

Yeah, make sure no one gets the idea you're a CNN-exclusive commentator. You'll never replace Chuck Todd, but if you play your cards right with MSNBC they'll let you be a guest political analyst and eventually one of the three on Todd's team and from there you would have the best chance of making regular appearances on Maddow's show when it starts later this year/early next year.

Essentially what I'm saying is that you should do whatever possible to always be around Rachel Maddow. If you get in early as a regular commentator on her show then she'll likely bring you back all the time for the entire span that her show runs. This would be huge for your career in political analysis, but more importantly, it would be huge as far as always being around Rachel Maddow goes.

Well done! As for your next venue, I'd say you sho...

2008-06-13T22:17:00.000-04:00

Well done! As for your next venue, I'd say you should angle for Keith Olbermann. Just promise to slip him some preliminary stats from the next BP :-)

(Ooh! A panel with you, Chuck Todd, and Rachel Maddow with kick holy ass. That's a lot of brains there.)

It would have been more interesting if they wanted...

2008-06-13T21:28:00.000-04:00

It would have been more interesting if they wanted to know about your methods and techniques as opposed to "what's this state gonna beeeeeee?!" Still, good job handling the interrupting news media, Nate =).

You did well, Nate. I'm sure there are more media ...

2008-06-13T20:52:00.000-04:00

You did well, Nate. I'm sure there are more media appearances for you in the future, and if you're flagellating yourself about any small errors right now, well, learn, deal, and move on, because you were well-informed, prompt and even rather damn cute.

Anyway, here's where John Roberts got his start. (Click the Clash part 2 link if you don't see the right video right away). Roberts was always a clueless tool, but the fact that he interviewed The Clash way back when does give you a Joe Strummer number of 1. Represent!

congrats on the pub, Nate, but it was a weird inte...

2008-06-13T20:19:00.000-04:00

congrats on the pub, Nate, but it was a weird interview. Obama is averaging plus 5 Wisconsin , plus 3 Colorado, plus 2 New Mexico, minus 2 Virginia, tied in Nevada and minus 2.6 in Missouri are all also swing states currently within a few points, worth 53 electoral votes, (and we could even throw North Carolina in there, since the latest poll has McCain up 2) so why the focus on the states you focused on? Was that your call or CNN spinning? Let's face it, all these states are trending Obama, so if they break his way

What about Colorado, Virginia, Missouri, and New M...

2008-06-13T18:10:00.000-04:00

What about Colorado, Virginia, Missouri, and New Mexico?

Those are all Red states in 2004 that, at least at this point, are breaking Blue.

Why did CNN not use your map if they were going to...

2008-06-13T18:07:00.000-04:00

Why did CNN not use your map if they were going to have you on the show - hello? - Colorado and New Mexico. You look like Vince Vaughn's brother.
Peace!

You looked quite nervous, especially when they (re...

2008-06-13T17:18:00.000-04:00

You looked quite nervous, especially when they (repeatedly) interrupted you and made you steer in another direction, but you didn't miss any beats even then.

Like I said, you need to have your own little special in which you control the subject matter and the pacing, and present the whole premise and logic of just what you do and why it works.

Aaron, Jeff, and Jay:That anonymous poster is funn...

2008-06-13T17:08:00.000-04:00

Aaron, Jeff, and Jay:

That anonymous poster is funny, and despite them posting here since the site started I think this is the first time anyone's responded. I mean, if "YAY!!! JOHN MCSHAME!!! LETS CLICK ON HIS AD AND CONTRIBUTE MONEY SO WE CAN "DELIVER HOT BOTTLED WATER TO DEHYDRATED BABIES" AND "VETO EVERY BEER"!!!" doesn't make you laugh, then rest assured that you're in the minority here. Just because a blog isn't a satire of others' blogs doesn't mean the comments can't be satire of others' comments.

Poblano: The problem here is that you did a morning show. The other problem is that you did CNN. I think MSNBC would be a better fit, but they're already all over Chuck Todd's nuts.

If you get another such opportunity you should bring to the table the stuff that no one on TV has. Everyone predicts that Ohio will go one way or another because of whatever, but no one predicts that the person who wins any one of Ohio, Michigan, or Pennsylvania will win the entire thing. In fact, if you want to draw the audience before dropping a more nuanced message next time you might try saying "In this election, whoever wins Ohio will win the entire thing over 80% of the time." The hosts will have a big important-sounding-to-laymen number to banter on, and then you could go further and say "but it turns out that the same is true of Michigan and Pennsylvania as well, with a win in all three of them determining the next president 99% of the time. What's interesting at present is that only Pennsylvania of these three leans toward either candidate, and that lean toward Obama almost on its own makes him the favorite to win presently." with the wording at the end there intentionally meant to trigger people's sports familiarity with statistics. Hell, going on a news network and telling them that Barack Obama in fact does not poll poorly among blue-collar whites but rather polls poorly among "Americans" and what this means for the election with contrast to what the popular narrative is would be interesting to these people and substantially different from typical projective punditry.

Also, make sure next time someone introduces you to an unfamiliar audience they mention either your stellar primary projections or PECOTA and also explain that your method is a weighted aggregate of polls. Their introduction of you gave you no credibility on the subject and in fact made you seem like a guy who was interested in sports first and just wandered on the set because you were also interested in politics.

You did great! Good job!Jane

2008-06-13T16:22:00.000-04:00

You did great! Good job!
Jane

With Tim Russert's sudden death, Chris Matthews an...

2008-06-13T16:17:00.000-04:00

With Tim Russert's sudden death, Chris Matthews and Keith Olbermann better be extra careful since they are presumably on the Clintons' latest enemies list too.

Great to see you on TV, but this just reaffirms m...

2008-06-13T16:14:00.000-04:00

Great to see you on TV, but this just reaffirms my decision to cancel my cable subscription and get all my news from sites like fivethirtyeight.com.

The anchors were morons - interrupting you every 3 seconds and steering the interview such that they gave no sense whatsoever of why 538 is good or different, or why Obama's electoral map is different.

I did learn one thing: Ethanol contributes to McCain's Iowa weakness.

RIP Tim Russert

2008-06-13T15:56:00.000-04:00

RIP Tim Russert

Mike:(1) - You mean like the graphic he has at the...

2008-06-13T14:59:00.000-04:00

Mike:

(1) - You mean like the graphic he has at the top of the page? (Except instead of purple at 50/50 it's white).

(2) I agree that when they asked about a state like Ohio or Michigan, rather than saying "I think it will go this or that way" a better answer would be to say "Based on the data available right now, my calculations show that it is a 50/50 tie and completely up for grabs at this point"

I think that a lot of the other comments are on to something. For next time, it would be good to have a short, one sentence statemnet that summarizes exactly what your doing that you deliver right at the beginning, like: "I use mathematical formulas that take data from various sources, including previous elections, current polling data, etc., to come up with a probability each candidate will win a given state. I then take these probabilities to predict who is most likely to win the election."

Strong interview performance, Nate. One tip for th...

2008-06-13T14:53:00.000-04:00

Strong interview performance, Nate. One tip for the future: Be sure to keep looking into the camera and fight the urge to flash your eyes at the monitor. For the viewer, it makes your eyes look shifty and you appear a little nervous.
If you really want to do punditry stuff, I suggest you do some practice with a friend recording and get used to having a conversation with a camera. You can learn a lot and improve dramatically after watching yourself on film.
Good show, though! I really enjoy your analysis and you have great data skills. Keep it up!