情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,...

congrats on the pub, Nate, but it was a weird interview. Obama is averaging plus 5 Wisconsin , plus 3 Colorado, plus 2 New Mexico, minus 2 Virginia, tied in Nevada and minus 2.6 in Missouri are all also swing states currently within a few points, worth 53 electoral votes, (and we could even throw North Carolina in there, since the latest poll has McCain up 2) so why the focus on the states you focused on? Was that your call or CNN spinning? Let's face it, all these states are trending Obama, so if they break his way

What about Colorado, Virginia, Missouri, and New M...

2008-06-13T18:10:45.912-04:00

What about Colorado, Virginia, Missouri, and New Mexico?

Those are all Red states in 2004 that, at least at this point, are breaking Blue.

Why did CNN not use your map if they were going to...

2008-06-13T18:07:10.931-04:00

Why did CNN not use your map if they were going to have you on the show - hello? - Colorado and New Mexico. You look like Vince Vaughn's brother.
Peace!

You looked quite nervous, especially when they (re...

2008-06-13T17:18:24.141-04:00

You looked quite nervous, especially when they (repeatedly) interrupted you and made you steer in another direction, but you didn't miss any beats even then.

Like I said, you need to have your own little special in which you control the subject matter and the pacing, and present the whole premise and logic of just what you do and why it works.

Aaron, Jeff, and Jay:That anonymous poster is funn...

2008-06-13T17:08:15.263-04:00

Aaron, Jeff, and Jay:

That anonymous poster is funny, and despite them posting here since the site started I think this is the first time anyone's responded. I mean, if "YAY!!! JOHN MCSHAME!!! LETS CLICK ON HIS AD AND CONTRIBUTE MONEY SO WE CAN "DELIVER HOT BOTTLED WATER TO DEHYDRATED BABIES" AND "VETO EVERY BEER"!!!" doesn't make you laugh, then rest assured that you're in the minority here. Just because a blog isn't a satire of others' blogs doesn't mean the comments can't be satire of others' comments.

Poblano: The problem here is that you did a morning show. The other problem is that you did CNN. I think MSNBC would be a better fit, but they're already all over Chuck Todd's nuts.

If you get another such opportunity you should bring to the table the stuff that no one on TV has. Everyone predicts that Ohio will go one way or another because of whatever, but no one predicts that the person who wins any one of Ohio, Michigan, or Pennsylvania will win the entire thing. In fact, if you want to draw the audience before dropping a more nuanced message next time you might try saying "In this election, whoever wins Ohio will win the entire thing over 80% of the time." The hosts will have a big important-sounding-to-laymen number to banter on, and then you could go further and say "but it turns out that the same is true of Michigan and Pennsylvania as well, with a win in all three of them determining the next president 99% of the time. What's interesting at present is that only Pennsylvania of these three leans toward either candidate, and that lean toward Obama almost on its own makes him the favorite to win presently." with the wording at the end there intentionally meant to trigger people's sports familiarity with statistics. Hell, going on a news network and telling them that Barack Obama in fact does not poll poorly among blue-collar whites but rather polls poorly among "Americans" and what this means for the election with contrast to what the popular narrative is would be interesting to these people and substantially different from typical projective punditry.

Also, make sure next time someone introduces you to an unfamiliar audience they mention either your stellar primary projections or PECOTA and also explain that your method is a weighted aggregate of polls. Their introduction of you gave you no credibility on the subject and in fact made you seem like a guy who was interested in sports first and just wandered on the set because you were also interested in politics.

You did great! Good job!Jane

2008-06-13T16:22:37.694-04:00

You did great! Good job!
Jane

With Tim Russert's sudden death, Chris Matthews an...

2008-06-13T16:17:10.536-04:00

With Tim Russert's sudden death, Chris Matthews and Keith Olbermann better be extra careful since they are presumably on the Clintons' latest enemies list too.

Great to see you on TV, but this just reaffirms m...

2008-06-13T16:14:22.719-04:00

Great to see you on TV, but this just reaffirms my decision to cancel my cable subscription and get all my news from sites like fivethirtyeight.com.

The anchors were morons - interrupting you every 3 seconds and steering the interview such that they gave no sense whatsoever of why 538 is good or different, or why Obama's electoral map is different.

I did learn one thing: Ethanol contributes to McCain's Iowa weakness.

RIP Tim Russert

2008-06-13T15:56:48.866-04:00

RIP Tim Russert

Mike:(1) - You mean like the graphic he has at the...

2008-06-13T14:59:13.742-04:00

Mike:

(1) - You mean like the graphic he has at the top of the page? (Except instead of purple at 50/50 it's white).

(2) I agree that when they asked about a state like Ohio or Michigan, rather than saying "I think it will go this or that way" a better answer would be to say "Based on the data available right now, my calculations show that it is a 50/50 tie and completely up for grabs at this point"

I think that a lot of the other comments are on to something. For next time, it would be good to have a short, one sentence statemnet that summarizes exactly what your doing that you deliver right at the beginning, like: "I use mathematical formulas that take data from various sources, including previous elections, current polling data, etc., to come up with a probability each candidate will win a given state. I then take these probabilities to predict who is most likely to win the election."

Strong interview performance, Nate. One tip for th...

2008-06-13T14:53:16.969-04:00

Strong interview performance, Nate. One tip for the future: Be sure to keep looking into the camera and fight the urge to flash your eyes at the monitor. For the viewer, it makes your eyes look shifty and you appear a little nervous.
If you really want to do punditry stuff, I suggest you do some practice with a friend recording and get used to having a conversation with a camera. You can learn a lot and improve dramatically after watching yourself on film.
Good show, though! I really enjoy your analysis and you have great data skills. Keep it up!

Good job on CNN, but whatever happened to Virginia...

2008-06-13T14:40:31.820-04:00

Good job on CNN, but whatever happened to Virginia, Colorado and New Mexico?

YAY!!! JOHN MCSHAME!!! LETS CLICK ON HIS AD AND CO...

2008-06-13T14:08:32.453-04:00

YAY!!! JOHN MCSHAME!!! LETS CLICK ON HIS AD AND CONTRIBUTE MONEY SO WE CAN "DELIVER HOT BOTTLED WATER TO DEHYDRATED BABIES" AND "VETO EVERY BEER"!!!

For those saying what about this other state... By...

2008-06-13T14:03:02.843-04:00

For those saying what about this other state... By the numbers here at 538, Ohio is the top tipping point state and the top must win state. PA and MI are 2/3 and 3/2

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: CNN Video

酒店經紀人, 菲梵酒店經紀, 酒店經紀, 禮服酒店上班, 酒店小姐兼職, 便服酒店經紀, ...

情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,...

What does 15.9% for Ohio mean in your Tipping Poi...

Good interview. The one thing I noticed was that ...

Wow, I just imagined a political show with Rachel ...

Good point Stephen C. Rose, were Poblano a regular...

Actually with all the advice about CNN and MSNBC w...

Yeah, make sure no one gets the idea you're a CNN-...

Well done! As for your next venue, I'd say you sho...

It would have been more interesting if they wanted...

You did well, Nate. I'm sure there are more media ...

congrats on the pub, Nate, but it was a weird inte...

What about Colorado, Virginia, Missouri, and New M...

Why did CNN not use your map if they were going to...

You looked quite nervous, especially when they (re...

Aaron, Jeff, and Jay:That anonymous poster is funn...

You did great! Good job!Jane

With Tim Russert's sudden death, Chris Matthews an...

Great to see you on TV, but this just reaffirms m...

RIP Tim Russert

Mike:(1) - You mean like the graphic he has at the...

Strong interview performance, Nate. One tip for th...

Good job on CNN, but whatever happened to Virginia...

YAY!!! JOHN MCSHAME!!! LETS CLICK ON HIS AD AND CO...

For those saying what about this other state... By...