Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: What Will We Know by 7 PM?

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2008-11-04T18:38:00.000-05:00

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News in real-time on CNN Election Center 2008 site...

2008-11-04T17:59:00.000-05:00

News in real-time on CNN Election Center 2008 site
Latest news about exit polls 2008 - Watch now:
http://cnn-election.com/2008/index.php?q=exit-polls-2008

well.....
For McCain and Palin

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@ jackNetworks are not prohibited from calling the...

2008-11-04T17:42:00.000-05:00

@ jack

Networks are not prohibited from calling the election before the close of polls in the Pacific time zone. Not sure where you got that information, but it is false.

On the other hand, we all know if some combination of a close race in Indiana and wins in VA/FL/PA/NH combine, the race is over.

It would be interesting to host an interview with ...

2008-11-04T17:41:00.000-05:00

It would be interesting to host an interview with Nate AND Newt Gingrich....If you remember, Ole' Newt predicted a Republican Bloodbath...and went on to say: why, how and ramifications...two men of vision ?

Put it in the FAQ.I don't think the FAQ is/should ...

2008-11-04T17:25:00.000-05:00

Put it in the FAQ.

I don't think the FAQ is/should be user-editable. :)

Mason,I do believe in some government oversight. L...

2008-11-04T17:19:00.000-05:00

Mason,

I do believe in some government oversight. Limited in scope however.

No, I'm not "pro-gaming" but realize that information isn't "pefect" either. I don't think we're far apart here, actually.

I want to end on a good note with you Mason. We've had our ups and downs, and I certainly want to end on an up note as this all wraps up.

I don't really trust this analysis. The main Monte...

2008-11-04T17:18:00.002-05:00

i smell landslide....holy shit.

2008-11-04T17:18:00.001-05:00

i smell landslide....holy shit.

When you do the math as suggested, you don't get -...

2008-11-04T17:18:00.000-05:00

When you do the math as suggested, you don't get -5.7%. You get -5.6%. Do it yourself. It's likely a rounding artifact, but it is sloppy, especially for this site.

I hate that candidates can win without having the ...

2008-11-04T17:15:00.000-05:00

I hate that candidates can win without having the popular vote. Some good links to find out why America even got involved with an Electoral College can be found here: http://blog.mindbites.com/life-and-learning/the-electoral-college-all-you-ever-wanted-to-know/

Oh, count IA as a McCain loss. Can he still lose C...

2008-11-04T17:14:00.001-05:00

Oh, count IA as a McCain loss. Can he still lose CO and NM? Or Nev? Only 2 of three?

Stop ignoring early voting. McCain has already lost, CO, NM, NV. The first two would win and the third offsets NH.

I don't really trust this analysis. The main Monte...

2008-11-04T17:14:00.000-05:00

I don't really trust this analysis. The main Monte Carlo is running each state as an independent event; the proper way to analyze confirmed knowledge of one state would be to re-run the MC with those states held fixed.

To give a simple example, say that one state did something really unexpected, an event that happened in only one of the 10,000 cases. That doesn't give us 100% likelihood that the remaining 49 states will do exactly what that one MC run did.

Just in: latest McCain internal polling results:PA...

2008-11-04T17:12:00.000-05:00

Just in: latest McCain internal polling results:

PA: MCCAIN 52%, Obama 40%, Undecided 6%

NJ: Obama 47%, McCain 45%, Undecided 7%

MI: McCain 45%, Obama 44%, Undecided 7%

VA: McCain 53%, Obama 42%, Undecided 3%

CO: McCain 50%, Obama 44%, Undecided 4%

MO: McCain 49%, Obama 42%, Undecided 7%

FL: McCain 52%, Obama 44%, Undecided 3%

WTF!?

Oh. Wait. That's what Free Republic is reporting. Never mind.

I know that the perfect free market doesn't exist ...

2008-11-04T17:11:00.001-05:00

I know that the perfect free market doesn't exist because information is imperfect. That's where governemtnt has to step in. Prevent gaming of of markets and such.

Unless you're either pro-gaming of markets, or you think that perfect information exists.

(It's the latter wasn't it?)

Posted this earlier. Poster Dave says Obama GOtV w...

2008-11-04T17:11:00.000-05:00

Posted this earlier. Poster Dave says Obama GOtV workers are being directed from OH to PA because the "bottom fell out of the internal polls" there and it is within the margin of error. Has anyone heard about this?

Freaking out, for a few more hours.

62% most importan on the economy is great news for...

2008-11-04T17:09:00.000-05:00

62% most importan on the economy is great news for John McCain.

Mule Rider said... "Obama HAS and WILL CONTINUE to...

2008-11-04T17:08:00.000-05:00

Mule Rider said...
"Obama HAS and WILL CONTINUE to divide this country."

Oh sure... right on, Einstein. Like YOUR idiotic rhetoric will bring us all together. Oh wait... that's not what you really want, is it?

Another Q: How does it feel inside after you post one of your hater rants? All warm and fuzzy?

;o)

Oh, count IA as a McCain loss. Can he still lose ...

2008-11-04T17:07:00.001-05:00

Oh, count IA as a McCain loss. Can he still lose CO and NM? Or Nev? Only 2 of three?

And, yes, thanks to NATE AND SEAN for hosting. And not interfering. I think our self-selection worked well all in all. We lost a bit of our vibrancy, but we maintained our own sort of Democracy Wall.

So you're saying the rampant deregulation of the p...

2008-11-04T17:07:00.000-05:00

So you're saying the rampant deregulation of the past 15 years has had nothing to do with it? That the combination of investment banks and commercial or retail banks had nothing to do with it?

You must be a "Reaganite". Who by your definition was a socialist.