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2009-02-08T04:00:00.000-05:00

I have no numbers to back this up but here goes......

2008-12-17T11:15:17.308-05:00

I have no numbers to back this up but here goes... From what I saw a lot of Franken's undervote challenges were to ballots with filled in ovals for Barkley or Aldrich along with dots or stray marks in or near the Franken oval. Clearly they had no chance of success. I think it is very likely that these are in the withdrawl pile. Hopefully that gives Franken a higher undervote percentage in his withdrawn challenges pile than Coleman. Thanks for the good analysis everyone. I'm back to being optimistic again!!

I think yesterday's numbers bode well for Franken....

2008-12-17T09:19:37.868-05:00

I think yesterday's numbers bode well for Franken.

He won 39% of his undervote-challenges and 7% of his Coleman-vote challenges. If we believe the Franken campaign claim that he wins by 4 votes if all challenges are rejected, then Franken must have challenged 93 more undervotes than Coleman (while Coleman challenged 192 more Franken votes). So, having a greater success rate on undervotes is very good.

If we assume that 10% of all challenges (withdrawn or not) are on undervotes, then Franken projects to 379 undervote-challenges (163 remain, 216 withdrawn), and 2899 Coleman-vote challenges (303 remain, 2596 withdrawn). Since each of the withdrawn challenges is rejected, the overall rejected rates become:

undervotes: (39%*163)/379 = 17%
Coleman votes: (7%*303)/2899 < 1%

If we apply these same rates to all of Coleman's challenges, I get Franken winning by 18.

Note 1 to KWRegan: don't be spooked by the low number of still-remaining challenged undervotes. Franken has most likely withdrawn more than remain, leaving Coleman a reasonable number (just under 300 total).

Note 2 to mediapost: yes, if Coleman succeeds in his still-remaining challenges at the same rate as Franken, he will win. But as you said, is there anything that makes us believe his challenges 467 through 1000 are just as valid as Franken's 1 through 466? My above assumption that the overall challenge-success rates are equal argues that those excess challenges will be rejected. If not, then Coleman's overall challenge-success rates will be much higher than Franken's and either Franken 1) needs to add to his pile challenges that could be accepted, or 2) he is legitimately going to lose.

KWR, great point regarding checking the % of under...

2008-12-17T08:24:14.531-05:00

KWR, great point regarding checking the % of undervotes and their effect. I am running off to work, but will try to follow your derivations more closely when I get there.

Another wrench (possibly), is as it was rumored in the blog yesterday, Coleman is actually thinking about re-ADDING prev. withdrawn challenges based on what he saw fly in yesterday's proceedings. All over the local news channels this AM news cycles: BOTH campaigns are considering re-adding the prev. withdrawn ballots.

FWIW
~Latte

Wow, this is complicated and stressful!Thanks for ...

2008-12-17T07:52:50.877-05:00

Wow, this is complicated and stressful!
Thanks for the recent posts.
It will be very interesting to see how the Minn.
Supreme Court acts on Coleman's attempt to
stop sorting and counting the wrongly discounted absentee ballots.
Any predictions?

A disquieting note to add here: Unless Franken wit...

2008-12-17T00:14:40.306-05:00

A disquieting note to add here: Unless Franken withdrew some of his own undervote challenges, there are far fewer of those than we thought. If we extrapolate the 56-of-160 undervote challenges we saw today (41 other - 7 ex-Coleman + 22 Franken votes) at face-value, we get only about 150. For Franken's reporting to be correct, that implies Coleman has made under 50 such challenges?? Seems hard to believe. The "150" also seems to defy "mediapost"s discovery of 130 such challenges among 2500-odd ballots, when the STrib had mounted over 6,000 total. Relevant questions I see are:

(a) How many, if any, of Franken's withdrawn challenges do *not* uptick Coleman's vote count?

(b) Same Q for Coleman's withdrawn challenges.

(c) Were any Hennepin/Ramsey/St.Louis ballots seen today? In the break I took from grading final exams today, they seemed to be mainly from small Coleman-leaning counties. Ah yes, alphabetical from Anoka, as I can see tracking TheUptake's directories.

It's incumbent on some reporter to tally (a) & (b)---I'm not asking you guys to double up your yeoman's service :-). Some evidence about (a) is that Franken won 22/(22+34) = just-under-40% of his undervote challenges. If Nate's high-end estimate of 20% from "first principles" (and prior optical-scan recounts?) was correct, then maybe Franken pruned the bottom half of his undervote challenges---ones that maybe were "under-5%-ers" and hence less valuable than the 7/(97+7) = about 7% success he's had in his overvote challenges.

BTW, my exam grading (including proofs and essays) is MUCH more difficult than what the CB is doing, and since I'm checking the TA's initial grading pass, it's also a kind of recount...

Bottom line: if we're right about the previous analysis then it was a good day for Franken.

WV "ballys": OK, no repeat of my "Franken has bigger ovals" joke at TheUptake (which ballot was that?), but rather a reference to the casino-like nature of the proceedings...

a couple of things before I go to bed.@bo, that's ...

2008-12-16T23:21:12.019-05:00

a couple of things before I go to bed.

@bo, that's an interesting twist on the "dead heat"/"statistical tie". I don't think the Board will do that calling the blurry 200 or so with unresolvable voter intent a gray area that necessitates a coin flip. Though that would be mathematically palatable, I suppose.

The Board's mo has been to dismiss those in which they cannot discern the voter intent. And they will not strive for a tie passing up on the best opportunities. That'd be like expecting a coin flip to land on a side, and to help that eventuality rounding off the coin edges to bull nose rather than flattening them out. (wow, what a weird analogy :). So, I don't think the Board is trying to punt the decision on the election to a coin flip.

@mediapost
It's not as grim as you post, from what I gather. I see Franken's success rate as >18%. On top of your 13%, he also succeeded in dismissing at least 7 Coleman votes to the "other" pile. So the net effect I get is Franken cutting 29 off Coleman's lead due to his challenges out of 160 attempts. That's better than 18%, and a far better rate than I expected.

As to how many total challenges Franken had remaining, I saw numbers like 440-441 to start with this AM. Now I see numbers between 230 and 250 on the remaining Franken challenges for tomorrow.

As to the rest of your math, I see where you are going with this. But assuming equal number of challenges for each candidate remaining, the net difference at the outset was less than a hundred by most counts, and 97 acc. to Strib/SOS (215-118 at the outset when there were 6655 total). What I see is Franken has already made up 29 of that with less than half way to go through his challenges and none of Coleman's, most of which are going to be dismissed.

Even if it is at the same rate as Franken's, Al stands to gain (61-18)% of about, call it, 500 to make math easy. That's 43% of 500 or about 215 net pick up for Franken from Coleman's challenges vs roughly the same # for visa versa.

But we know that Coleman actually has more votes taken away from Franken due to his challenges than visa versa, so that assumption on the 43% gain earlier is probably erroneous and a real low ball number.

The best way to look at it is this: acc. to your count and Elias count, we started the day with Franken being up 4, assuming all the challenges are dismissed. To that we added another 29 today from those challenges that stood, and stand to add even more tomorrow.

Let's see what the net pick up is actually tomorrow for Franken, and the see how Coleman challenges stack up, and if Coleman is able to gain as much from his pile. All I know is that the 18% challenge success rate is fabulous and exceeding all expectations.

~ Latte

wv - ejacilsm. over excitement over [r]ejected ballots.

Thanks Latte,Sounds like good news so far, thanks ...

2008-12-16T22:55:18.974-05:00

Thanks Latte,

Sounds like good news so far, thanks for the update and the web site. I enjoy hearing Elias speak.

So, if we extrapolate the results of today to Franken's 466 challenges then Coleman would pick up 284 votes (61% of 466) and Franken would pick up 60 votes (13% of 466). The net pickup of 224 for Coleman leaves him with a lead of 412 (188 + 224). If we assume the same success rates for Franken on Coleman's 1000 challenges (I don't have an exact number), we would get 610 for Franken and 130 for Coleman, a net gain of 480 for Franken and a 68 vote lead (480 - 412). However, that is not as good as it sounds because the withdrawn challenges have not been applied and Franken will have 435 more withdrawn challenges than Coleman (3278 - 466 = 2812 Franken withdrawn challenges vs. 3377 - 1000 = 2377 Coleman withdrawn challenges). So, it looks to me like Franken will have to do considerably better on Coleman's challenges than Coleman did on his. If Franken gets an 80%/5% split of the 1000 Coleman challenges he would have a 338 vote lead (750 - 412) but would still have 435 more withdrawn challenges than Coleman. He needs a 90/5 split or better for his lead to be greater than the his excess withdrawn challenges... That doesn't seem to sound so good. On the other hand, there is little reason to believe that Coleman challenges 467 - 1000 will get him much of anything, so 80/5 or 90/5 might be doable.

I have been interested in this discussion(s) since...

2008-12-16T22:23:41.754-05:00

I have been interested in this discussion(s) since the election. I believe that there is a scenario that I have not seen written about. Though unlikely, in the stranger than fiction category I am not so sure it is such an outrageous possibility. I shall also note that I have absolutely no credentials to enter into this argument and I may have missed a significant fact that make this a joke, though I know I am not alone in that regard.

First I would like to comment about the Minnesota process. From my perspective it has in general been extremely efficient, straight forward and fair. I don’t believe there is a way yet devised that is perfect, or that can claim to be fair and have accuracies to the single or low double digit level out of 2.9 million ballots cast. To those that believe otherwise I believe they need to present their process and mechanisms. In these circumstances I hope this remains a Minnesota process and both the federal courts and the US Senate resist the temptation to intervene.

My scenario assumes that the Canvass Committee strongly believes that this is an issue for Minnesota to solve, and that they personally would like find a “safe harbor” solution where they are not made into scapegoats. The “safe harbor” solution is an “exact tie”. I hope that I read that correctly when I read some of the Minnesota Law. I also believe that most of us realize that there is nothing ultimately exacting about any election process conceived of today (that is there is no judgment anywhere in the process that can not be challenged or open to some interpretation). Even if the best count possible yields an “exact tie”, it will have judgment connected to it. Is it a stray mark that should be ignored or is it an identifying mark yielding a ballot that should be rejected.

The scenario is that the Canvass Committee will declare a tie based upon roughly the above argument (even if the spread in the count is single or low double digits). This is the most unlikely case because it would take a great deal of courage for the members to take though I believe that it is the correct one. I believe that “exact” could be interpreted to be the level of process accuracy. The Minnesota Supreme court might have something to say about it but they might actually agree with the committee.

The other way of achieving an “exact” tie would be to interpret enough of the difficult ballots such that the count for both candidates match exactly. This would be easier done if the committee does its voting in a closed session like most judge panels. (At this writing I have not found a source that has stated the process that the committee will take or has taken.)

Once the “exact” tie is certified then there would be a coin toss.

Minnesota will have their senator. The US Senate would have to act and not react. They would invite all sorts wrath from many quarters. If I understand the most recent precedent, the state essentially threw up their hands and said that they could not certify a winner. I also think (I could be wrong here) that the process in that state was a reelection if there was a tie which is what the US Senate decided to do.

The US Supreme court would also find itself in lots of criticism if they intervened. Minnesota followed diligently the state law. It is hard to imagine that a coin toss is unfair and biased toward one political party or the other (though it is not exactly 50-50, where the spread is greater than the spread in this count).

@mediapost,KWR and I have been blogging on theupta...

2008-12-16T20:43:12.023-05:00

@mediapost,
KWR and I have been blogging on theuptake.org site on and off in the early afternoon (not sure if he saw me). In any case, www.theuptake.org is a better streaming site because you can chat while the ballots are being reviewed. They have the day's video saved and ready to go on top of the page.

Here is a quote from one of the zookeepers @ theuptake regarding the end of the day results:

Michael McIntee: "160 votes challenged by Franken reviewed. 22 went for Franken, 97 for Coleman and 41 for "other". About 7 of those votes in the "other" pile were originally Coleman votes."

My analysis is that the Board strains, but does not overstrain to discern the intent. Anything that's middle of the line or circling the letters in Coleman does not constitute a vote acc. to the Board.

The x'ed out ovals got nicely parsed, imho. With the apparent overvotes, the Board counted them to delete the x'ed vote and to count the filled in oval. With a single x'ed out filled out oval the Board decisions split depending on the ballot and individual case. Sometimes they allowed the vote, other times I saw them punt it as unclear voter intent into the "other" pile.

Finally, the most impressive thing to me was their ruling thus far on the potentially id'ed ballots. Where the person's name or initials were present for no apparent reason, the ballot was dq'ed as marked/id'ed. But in cases where the voter x'ed out an oval and/or made a correction and added the initials as proof of him/her doing the editing, they allowed the vote. Some interesting subcases of that came up, imho.

A great day for Franken, imho.

~ Latte

Thanks just_looking,I can't get the link to come u...

2008-12-16T20:29:34.691-05:00

Thanks just_looking,

I can't get the link to come up. I get the outline of a page but no content. Can you publish it again? Thanks

It will be maddening if they don't update the totals daily, but it's starting to look like we'll just have to wait until the entire process is over. The daily recount updates provided such great drama.

Are there any sites that show the ballots and the rulings (is that the site you pointed to just_looking?) I'd be particularly interested in the 2 ovals with one Xd out ruling.

You can follow the recount hereAs of 3:49 PM centr...

2008-12-16T17:10:29.750-05:00

You can follow the recount here

As of 3:49 PM central, Franken had won at least 10 out of 111 challenges (his vote total went up 10), and had lost at least 74 (Coleman's vote total went up 74). What you can't tell is of the other 27 ballots, which were Franken losses (originally no vote), Franken wins (originally a Coleman vote) or the Board could not decide.

Another interesting point is that after Franken's challenges are judicated, he will appear to be behind by quite a bit. But then after Coleman's are judicated, Franken will appear to be ahead by quite a bit (Coleman has about twice as many challenges remaining). We won't know the true story until the vote totals are adjusted for the withdrawn challenges.

@mediapost,I heard Knaak's comments in news clips ...

2008-12-15T21:47:43.881-05:00

@mediapost,
I heard Knaak's comments in news clips on radio, but have not seen them in print until you posted. My take on these duplicates is similar to what I posted before:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/12/missing-ballots-in-minneapolis.html#comment-6991714510940607270).

Here is my take on this, but all imho only.
No doubt you have run into a category of challenges where a perfectly good looking ballot gets flagged because of "no duplicate" found. If you read my original post, to find the dupes, the judge has to sort through the entire precinct full of ballots, which is often several thousand. For each dupe. Them dupes are hard to find. Even when they are there.

One of the issues MN hand recount shed a lot of light on is how some election judges are a bit fuzzy on some of the subtleties of the less common procedures. High absentee false error rate is but one glaring illustration of this.

IMHO, another is the duplicate issue and how some of the judges deal with the jammed, and especially wrong format absentee ballots which require a fairly elaborate dance from the judge. In Washington County we've seen a bunch of originals for which no dupes could be found. Coleman challenged every single one. Afair, there were a couple that we challenged as well. Also, afair, there were duplicates with no originals in the envelope as well, but those are far less frequent, unless the envelope with the originals got misplaced.

What the procedure the Canvassing Board will decide upon in these cases is unclear. Will they think the dupes are in the general pile, and the judge absentmindedly forgot to mark them as such? Or that the judges never made the duplicates to feed them through?

But my hunch is that Knaak is blowing smoke. I bet the Coleman campaign has calculated that they are ahead in that type of a challenge, and would stand to gain if all duplicate type of challenges were summarily allowed.

My issue is understanding the mechanism for the double count that needs to be proposed. If the original got chewed up, there was no way it got counted twice, especially after the hand recount. Judge would have created an incident report, recording the instance, the duplicate ballot would've been marked. I honestly cannot see how "a couple of hundred" of these would've been counted twice, esp. in a hand recount.

~ Latte

wv - secycop. I kid you not!

Good job Latte!! Thanks for not slowing down the p...

2008-12-15T20:11:44.530-05:00

Good job Latte!! Thanks for not slowing down the proceedings with frivolous challenges!!

I've seen a couple of articles about the Coleman camp claiming there are several hundred duplicate ballots. If true I don't understand why it wasn't resolved as part of the hand recount. It's hard to imagine that the local election officials would allow them to be double counted again in the recount, but if they were it could have a huge affect on the outcome. Do you know any details behind this story?... and why were they initially going to go to the MN Supremes? This is very confusing.

see below:

Knaak added a wrinkle to the Coleman's team legal arguments, saying it will ask the canvassing board Tuesday to "ensure the concept of one person, one vote" by not allowing duplicate votes that were cast on Election Day to be counted more than once.

He said campaign officials believe "a couple of hundred" votes from locations he didn't specify were mistakenly counted twice on Election Night. Local elected officials created those duplicates after originals were misfed or jammed into voting machines, he said.

Initially, the campaign had planned to treat the issue of the duplicate ballots as part of its argument to the Supreme Court, but decided instead to present it directly to the Canvassing Board.

"We want to make sure they're counted just once where there are obvious duplicates," Knaak said, adding that the campaign's lawyers will ask that those particular ballots be treated collectively by the board.

SOS web page is now listing all three sets of with...

2008-12-15T19:44:30.527-05:00

SOS web page is now listing all three sets of withdrawn challenges from both candidates:

http://www.sos.state.mn.us/home/index.asp?page=1405

The pdf's are not included, but the challenge number is listed after the county and the precinct, so if you are organized, they are trackable.

FWIW, all four of mine survived the purging :).

~ Latte

wv - ledshai: John Paul Jones career post-Zeppelin

I wonder when we're going to get any updated count...

2008-12-15T07:46:43.147-05:00

I wonder when we're going to get any updated county by county totals with the withdrawals taken out. STrib is still showing 6655 challenges. It will be very intersting to see how the lead changes.

Did you guys see this in the STrib AP story?"The A...

2008-12-14T22:39:49.446-05:00

Did you guys see this in the STrib AP story?
"The AP also found that among challenged ballots that easily could be assigned, Franken netted 200 more votes than Coleman. But Coleman has withdrawn significantly fewer ballot challenges than Franken — that is, the pool of challenges that can now be awarded to Franken is larger, and both campaigns announced Sunday that they would withdraw more challenges by Tuesday.

Of the remaining challenges, the AP found that only about 1,640 couldn't reliably be awarded to either candidate. More than 400 possible Franken votes were being held up on grounds that those voters identified their ballots through write-ins, initials, phone numbers or some other distinctive marking. At least 300 possible Coleman votes were in limbo for the same reasons."

That actually sounds pretty good. No-brainers bring Franken just a little ahead (~200 gain, starting down 188 or 192). He seems to have a little more room to grow in the questionable ballots, too.

So maybe it'll be Coleman demanding that those absentees count.

@mediapostThe last one from St. Louis County is fa...

2008-12-14T21:47:59.858-05:00

@mediapost

The last one from St. Louis County is fairly consistent in its voting method/marking. So, imho, it's fairly straightforward to discern the voter intent. And the election judge saw it that way too. So, this is Franken's to lose, which he might, though the odds are better than 50/50 imho for Al.

The Arden Hills ballot show a clear pattern of how the voter marks his intent. It's by filling in the oval. The rest is doodling. Again, impartisanho.

As to the top two, I recall seeing a fair number of such ballots where the side issuing the challenge didn't jibe. Several other posters pointed those ballots out as well.

Lastly, I'm very curious to see if any news org publishes the remaining 1000 ballots on Tuesday. I am assuming that when the Franken campaign gets its challenges below 500 as per Board's renewed request last Friday, the Coleman folks will be eager to match.

It looks like theuptake.org will carry the Canvassing Board deliberations of each ballot live, so it would make a lot of sense that someone will publish the last 1000 that counts, as the Board and the campaigns will each have their copies of the 1000 stack.

I can almost taste the daja vu as we see the all too familiar ballots pop up. I hope the Lizard People survive the purging at the Coleman camp and make it to the finals. I have some others I am rooting for as well (the argyle ballot, the pearl necklace ballot, etc.)

~ Latte

@Michael (mbw)Here's a couple of confusing ones. T...

2008-12-14T21:26:43.091-05:00

@Michael (mbw)

Here's a couple of confusing ones. These look like ballots that Franken would challenge but they say Coleman challenged them. I wonder if the challenge stamp is incorrect and they were really Franken challenges.

http://senaterecount.startribune.com/media/ballotPDFs/Ramsey_St.%20Paul%20W2%20P12_challenged%20ballot%209.pdf

http://upload.mpr.org/ballots/Chippewa/chippewa_claracity_challengedballot1.pdf

Here's another weird one. The 'o' in Coleman is filled in. There is another name that has an 'o' in it that is filled. All the rest of the ballot has the usual ovals filled in. They actually awarded the vote to Coleman and Franken has challenged. It's hard to see how that should count as a vote.

http://senaterecount.startribune.com/media/ballotPDFs/Ramsey_ArdenHillsP2_challengedballot1F.pdf

And one last one that favors Franken. It's hard to see how this should count either.

http://senaterecount.startribune.com/media/ballotPDFs/St.Louis_NewIndependence_challengedballot1C.pdf

Good article on www.msnbc.com on the status of the...

2008-12-14T20:17:18.471-05:00

Good article on www.msnbc.com on the status of the "challenged ballots."
No mention of the absentee ballot issues, however.
Any one else out there have any news or new predictions on all of this?

@mediapost- Any further tidbits for us addicts?p.s...

2008-12-14T18:30:13.854-05:00

@mediapost- Any further tidbits for us addicts?

p.s. Thanks!

I disagree with the easy line that this is good fo...

2008-12-14T13:25:33.800-05:00

I disagree with the easy line that this is good for Franken and bad for Coleman. Because, though he may not like it in this case, even a Republican will say, at least publicly, that all legitimate votes should be counted.

Oh, wait. No, a Republican would not say that. Remember Florida (and the aftermath we live today)?

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Minnesota Canvassing Board Sides with Franken on T...

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I have no numbers to back this up but here goes......

I think yesterday's numbers bode well for Franken....

KWR, great point regarding checking the % of under...

Wow, this is complicated and stressful!Thanks for ...

A disquieting note to add here: Unless Franken wit...

a couple of things before I go to bed.@bo, that's ...

Thanks Latte,Sounds like good news so far, thanks ...

I have been interested in this discussion(s) since...

@mediapost,KWR and I have been blogging on theupta...

Thanks just_looking,I can't get the link to come u...

You can follow the recount hereAs of 3:49 PM centr...

@mediapost,I heard Knaak's comments in news clips ...

Good job Latte!! Thanks for not slowing down the p...

SOS web page is now listing all three sets of with...

I wonder when we're going to get any updated count...

Did you guys see this in the STrib AP story?"The A...

@mediapostThe last one from St. Louis County is fa...

@Michael (mbw)Here's a couple of confusing ones. T...

Good article on www.msnbc.com on the status of the...

@mediapost- Any further tidbits for us addicts?p.s...

I disagree with the easy line that this is good fo...

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Minnesota Canvassing Board Sides with Franken on T...

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I have no numbers to back this up but here goes......

I think yesterday's numbers bode well for Franken....

KWR, great point regarding checking the % of under...

Wow, this is complicated and stressful!Thanks for ...

A disquieting note to add here: Unless Franken wit...

a couple of things before I go to bed.@bo, that's ...

Thanks Latte,Sounds like good news so far, thanks ...

I have been interested in this discussion(s) since...

@mediapost,KWR and I have been blogging on theupta...

Thanks just_looking,I can't get the link to come u...

You can follow the recount hereAs of 3:49 PM centr...

@mediapost,I heard Knaak's comments in news clips ...

Good job Latte!! Thanks for not slowing down the p...

SOS web page is now listing all three sets of with...

I wonder when we're going to get any updated count...

Did you guys see this in the STrib AP story?"The A...

@mediapostThe last one from St. Louis County is fa...

@Michael (mbw)Here's a couple of confusing ones. T...

Good article on www.msnbc.com on the status of the...

@mediapost- Any further tidbits for us addicts?p.s...

I disagree with the easy line that this is good fo...

外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇 ...