Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: The Electric Minor Political Scandal Acid Test

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2009-10-08T08:20:35.815-04:00

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2009-09-11T01:18:12.781-04:00

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2009-03-11T05:59:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-11T05:59:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-12T23:05:00.000-05:00

Has anyone gotten around to discussing the negativ...

2008-07-01T02:24:00.000-04:00

Has anyone gotten around to discussing the negatives of John McCain's Vietnam experience regarding his foreign policy position, especially regarding the Iraq war? I recall reading an article in a recent Sunday New York Times discussing McCain's report to the military after his release from captivity. He plainly states that he believed the Vietnam War failed largely because the military and the administrations at the time did not properly convey its importance to the rest of the country.

It occurred to me that John McCain suffered permanent disability and harm in a war that the country effectively "chose" to "lose" and that he may see Iraq as a way to compensate for that loss. Or, at least, he may be determined not to allow the US to repeat the mistake of Vietnam - giving up before the job is "done." However, such a narrow focus inevitably leads to tunnel vision. I think McCain is so focused on Iraq and "winning" there that he's to a degree ignoring other aspects of US foreign policy - including completing the defeat of the Taliban and Al Quaeda in Afghanistan.

McCain Swift Boat Surrogate!OK not a huge scandal ...

2008-06-30T13:52:00.000-04:00

McCain Swift Boat Surrogate!

OK not a huge scandal buy, your test came to mind when I read over at TPM that;

The McCain campaign held a conference call unveiling a new "truth squad" Web site designed to defend McCain from attacks on his military record.

This was in response to Wes Clark's claim yesterday that McCain lacks the necessary experience to be President, which wasn't an attack on McCain's military record at all.

Be that as it may, on the call, the McCain camp rolled out a leading surrogate named Bud Day -- who was described merely as a fellow POW of McCain -- who blasted such attacks. "John was slandered and reviled in the 2000 campaign in a way that denigrated his service enormously... it was absolutely important to face this issue right off the bat."

But guess what, it turns out that this very same Bud Day was featured in the Swift Boat Vets ads attacking John Kerry in 2004!

According to your test this could be jumped on effectively because;

1. It's easy to reduce to a sound bite McCain's swiftboat hypocrisy.

2. Core brand? This guy is part if the truth squad!

3.Core negative? McCain no longer maverick, same as bush, now using his attack people.

4. Pushing back hard will only help cement democrats opinion on one of Obama's meta narratives, namely "not this time"!

5. Right on time its a campaign lull.

Lets see if this gains traction.

Max

I love this test. It makes a lot of sense.I would...

2008-06-30T00:23:00.000-04:00

I love this test. It makes a lot of sense.

I would also add that any of the following will exponentiate any of Nate's test criteria

(in approx order of magnitude)

1)Sex related (bonus points for anything non-hetero)

2)Illegal activities (drugs, solicitation, corruption, etc)

3)It involves any of the following: Money, Family, Religion, Hollywood or Identity Politics;

4)There is video

5)The candidate is considered the front-runner (the media wants a horserace)

Nate!Crucial modification to #3. It's not only the...

2008-06-29T20:55:00.000-04:00

Nate!

Crucial modification to #3. It's not only the candtate's negative perception that might be "proved," it's his party's perception, too. That's also partly why the Wright controversy cut so deep.

So I'd say when you put it like this:

Rich guy Republican candidate owns seven houses and cheats on his property taxes while millions are losing their homes thanks to Wall Street greed

this could linger for McCain for a while.

I think this story can go far to counter the Karl ...

2008-06-29T20:48:00.000-04:00

I think this story can go far to counter the Karl Rove (fulsome) attack of "elitism" against Obama.

McCain's defense will be on the order of "Well, my rich heiress wife has bought so many houses with her multi-million dollar trust fund that we can't be expected to keep up with the measly taxes on all on them, now can we?"

This tax problem will display the real gap between McCain and the reality of ordinary Americans. Anybody remember the first Bush and his surprise at bar code readers at the grocery store?

Adam said:"Nate, you seem not to mind the -gate de...

2008-06-29T20:43:00.000-04:00

Adam said:

"Nate, you seem not to mind the -gate descriptions for scandals (Watergate, coingate, Boratgate). But I absolutely positively cannot stand those. Nixon is dead and done and not everything has to be a -gate. It makes for flashy, trendy, unprofessional writing."

Sorry, Adam. "-gate" will remain a suffice denoting a political scandal long after I (and even you) pass from the scene. Just as Governor Gerry leant his name to politically driven redistricting.

This "tax gate" scandal is just another example of...

2008-06-29T20:39:00.000-04:00

This "tax gate" scandal is just another example of the "Straight-talk Express" really being the "Flip-flop flier to Waffletown"

I especially love this youtube video of McCain "appeasing" and "emboldening the enemy" by seeking advice from terrorists

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6OGG9lDCwc8

Nate,I think it may be an interesting exercise to ...

2008-06-29T19:56:00.000-04:00

Nate,

I think it may be an interesting exercise to apply this criterion to the sudden disappearance of the Ron Paul phenomenon in the Republican primary season. In my opinion, the scandal that crushed him was when CNN broke the story about the "racist Ron Paul newsletters." I think that story ruined his credibility with the very people he was trying to court: old-style individualists who once held sway over the conservative movement, and find appeals to bigotry repulsive.

I like your scale a lot.The only thing you might c...

2008-06-29T19:49:00.000-04:00

I like your scale a lot.
The only thing you might consider adding, and this may be a variant of #1, is the incident presented as a picture or a video that can easily go viral.

I don't think the McCain tax problem will make it, but I hope I'm wrong.

I have a different take on the LaJollaGate scandal...

2008-06-29T17:18:00.000-04:00

I have a different take on the LaJollaGate scandal, here's my spin:

1) "McCain accidentally didn't pay his taxes and his home was almost confiscated"

2) The issue is competency. McCain is experienced and "ready on day one", but somehow he can't even manage his personal finances.

3) It reinforces the previous signs of his incompetency--the thousands of dollars in credit card debt despite having enough resources to pay them off easily, the nearly financially defunct campaign in '07, and the other poor management decisions like the infamous "green screen" speech

4) Given Obama's proven record of competency running his campaign, I don't see how using this would be a problem

5) Just another nail in the ocffin, not terribly shocking

"The McCain's own a house in La Jolla that they di...

2008-06-29T17:04:00.000-04:00

"The McCain's own a house in La Jolla that they didn't pay taxes on for four years."

Fair or not, there is a lot there. And the explanations don't help much.

This is an excellent test Nate. I've bookmarked it and will refer back to it as the various yet-to-be-exposed scandals roll out during the season.

But you should rename it for no other reason than it might get more traction. I recommend the following alliteration: The Silver Scandal Scale. It makes little sense but it is easier to remember.

The news media doesn't report McCain scandals, bec...

2008-06-29T16:19:00.000-04:00

The news media doesn't report McCain scandals, because they're so biased towards the left. Duh.

I second Adam 11:47's gripe. God forbid another sc...

2008-06-29T16:11:00.000-04:00

I second Adam 11:47's gripe. God forbid another scandal should occur at the Watergate hotel, we'd be subjected to breathless bloviation about "Watergategate."

As a big Obama supporter I wouldn't mind this stor...

2008-06-29T15:23:00.000-04:00

As a big Obama supporter I wouldn't mind this story getting big airplay but I don't think it'll really resonate with people. I personally don't really care. I'm all for tax evasion. Er... nevermind.

Tiger, it's interesting the GOP no longer has anyt...

2008-06-29T14:05:00.000-04:00

Tiger, it's interesting the GOP no longer has anything smarmy to say about marrying rich, too.

To the commenter who misspelled de minimis, you re...

2008-06-29T14:04:00.000-04:00

To the commenter who misspelled de minimis, you really think there's an "I'm rich" exemption to a six-figure debt? It's still a six-figure debt to the rest of the world, even if she's worth over 1000 times what the average American is worth.

Agreed on that. If he reads the news at all, he'd...

2008-06-29T14:02:00.000-04:00

Agreed on that. If he reads the news at all, he'd know that. His comment was reminiscent of Bush's comment earlier this year when he said "He hadn't heard about it" when told that the price of gasoline might reach $4.

But in McCain's case, the issue is more fundamental. He seemed tone deaf on the offshore drilling issue -- alienating a lot of people in Florida, for example.

And more fundamentally, his plans to re-up the Bush tax breaks for the rich are fundamentally out of touch with the desire for middle and working class tax relief.

And his "plan" for health care is hopelessly out of touch.

All you have to do is read the news and you know i...

2008-06-29T13:52:00.000-04:00

All you have to do is read the news and you know it's over $4 a gallon. Come on.

You don't have to fill up your car with gas to und...

2008-06-29T13:34:00.000-04:00

You don't have to fill up your car with gas to understand how it mihght be hurting lower paid people, nor do you need to know the exact price- simply that it is far too high for most people.

Tiger -- you're missing the point. Marrying rich ...

2008-06-29T13:31:00.000-04:00

Tiger -- you're missing the point. Marrying rich is good! Wish we could do that.

But if you get so out of touch as a result that you don't understand what the concerns are on the ground, in the economy, and on the street, you're going to be criticized as an elitist. That was not Kerry's problem. It is McCain's.