Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Obama & Palin: Carpe Diem

If you think I'm wrong, please point out several c...

2009-07-08T17:17:32.048-04:00

If you think I'm wrong, please point out several campaign appearances she made in heavy Dem strongholds in the 2008 campaign. I've wracked my memory, and can't think of any.

I don't disagree with that or that she'd create problems for the candidate she'd be trying to help by going into the Dem heavy areas. I also think with state-wide races she and the candidate will have some room to maneuver to target her appearances and keep her support low key in areas where she could do damage. I agree with that entirely, that is effectively what my posts have said.

However for her to be a serious contender for the GOP nomination, rather than running just to set herself up as a power broker with the keys to The Base (for another VP nomination? after how badly things went between her and the McCain team?), she's going to have to go into hostile territory.

That is when the sparks are going to fly and the local candidates are going to duck-and-cover.

Dwight, In a state-wide campaign (such as for gov...

2009-07-08T16:27:12.957-04:00

Dwight,

In a state-wide campaign (such as for governor or senator in 2009 or 2010, or both and President in 2012), Palin could campaign in many areas that are GOOPer strongholds, but skip entirely the Dem strongholds.

Look back to 2008 - When Palin campaigned in Virginia, she stayed out of Northern Virginia almost entirely. If I remember correctly, the closest she came to NoVa was one campaign rally in Fredericksburg, which is basically a border city to NoVa, with a lot of GOOPer strength very close by (Quantico Marine Corps. base, for instance). Most of her campaign appearances in Virginia were in the Shenandoah Valley, Southwest Virginia, and parts of the Tidewater - all traditional GOOPer strongholds.

When Palin campaigned in Pennsylvania, she almost exclusively campaigned in the "T", not in Southeast or Southwest PA, the Democratic strongholds.

When Palin campaigned in Ohio, she almost exclusively campaigned in areas that were strong GOOPer strongholds, staying out of Cleveland and Toledo (although in the exurbs of those two cities), and (again if I remember correctly), she made one appearance in Columbus - a joint appearance with McCain - but Columbus was considered to be more a toss-up area than favoring one candidate over the other.

She is so polarizing to the electorate that I don't think she will do much campaigning (for others in 2009 or 2010 for others, or for others and herself in 2012) in areas where her appearance will polarize the independents and moderate GOOPers (in the primaries) and Democrats (in the general) into action against her.

If you think I'm wrong, please point out several campaign appearances she made in heavy Dem strongholds in the 2008 campaign. I've wracked my memory, and can't think of any.

Mike in Maryland

My Blogger ID is http://www.blogger.com/profile/02848893412251095965

Of course a 2012 nomination run could set her up f...

2009-07-08T11:23:26.897-04:00

Of course a 2012 nomination run could set her up for a Jesse Jackson type career, as such one where success is not measured in whether she gets the nomination. She then becomes a walking mouth piece, fluttering from controversy flashpoint to controversy flashpoint. Unelectable because of her storm crow reputation and polarizing personality. Now there is a fit.

If polls show the D incumbent winning by a more c...

2009-07-08T11:11:39.073-04:00

If polls show the D incumbent winning by a more comfortable margin if Palin campaigns in their district, it should allow some of them to drift a bit more to the left and give more support to President Obama's proposals

Exactly what the breakpoint from positive to negative is the big question. As well though she is polarizing, there might be some wiggle room to skate from area to area within a given electorate since it isn't actually her being elected, in much the same way that Presidential (or Governor, Senator, etc.) coattails are used selectively.

But she won't campaign much, if at all, in the districts with a very heavy Dem lean,

It is going to be very hard for her NOT to if she still has designs on a Republican POTUS candidate nomination. Watching that resignation speech says to me that she does, although maybe I'm misreading between the lines?

It is one thing to count on "red states" for the core of your victory and another to completely ignore blue and purple states. It would be the antithesis of Obama's "there are only the united states" that proved critical. Sure the Republican primaries, with more winner-take-all states, might get her closer than as a Democrat. But she' still has to get an outright majority of delegates on her side and she has to give the appearance of being elected nationally (as opposed to fearing it) because there is a significant number of primary voters that vote strategically.

That of course brings up the nightmare scenario for the GOP. Where she comes close but can't quite seal the deal with enough delegates and Sarah holds out harder than Hillary did. You know the press is going to be cheerleading, playing that up, and fanning any flames just as this did last year with the Democratic Party. There are some really stubborn chunks of the GOP that I imagine going to be behind Palin (think Ron Paul and his shadow convention) that could give some real substance to this without the natural healer like Bill Clinton waiting in the wings.

WV: shirksi - the act of shrugging off and distancing yourself from Palin's support for your candidacy when talking to anyone outside The Base

P.S. What is the arabic translation for Al Queda, again? :)

Dwight, The AP article concentrated on the gubern...

2009-07-08T05:31:22.540-04:00

Dwight,

The AP article concentrated on the gubernatorial contests in Virginia and New Jersey that occur this year, and did not even mention the Congressional races that will be in 2010.

My feeling is that those Blue Dog Congressional Democratic incumbents and candidates would also welcome Palin to campaign for their opponents, as she excites not only the GOOPer base, but also the Democrats (base plus others) but in the opposite direction, and drives the independents away from the GOOPers. If polls show the D incumbent winning by a more comfortable margin if Palin campaigns in their district, it should allow some of them to drift a bit more to the left and give more support to President Obama's proposals.

So all in all, I think it's an almost all around win for the Democratic candidates if she chooses to campaign anywhere in this year's gubernatorial races in VA and NJ. After all, wherever she campaigns, she's in someone's Congressional District. But she won't campaign much, if at all, in the districts with a very heavy Dem lean, thus NOT the home of almost all non-Blue Dog Democrats. The same scenario also applies in the 2010 campaign season.

Mike in Maryland

My Blogger ID is http://www.blogger.com/profile/02848893412251095965

@Mike So doubt she's dead, at times poisonous, we...

2009-07-08T04:42:45.357-04:00

@Mike

So doubt she's dead, at times poisonous, weight in a lot of states. But there are going to be states at the edges of the D advance, Blue Dog territory and such, where she'd be helpful for the GOP candidate. How much damage that'd do overall for the GOP in the long run, how much would it delay getting out of this rump situation they are in? Hard to say, but right now I suspect there is a lot of pressure to just win back those seats (like in Idaho) where the loss was a complete, utter embarrassment to the GOP.

Renard wrote: Palin . . . never has been able to d...

2009-07-08T04:26:08.578-04:00

Renard wrote:
Palin . . . never has been able to discipline her messaging in a way that clearly defines her in a positive and transformational light

AP News reports:
Sarah Palin's decision to step down as Alaska governor was driven in part by her wish to help Republican candidates across the country, associates say.

But in New Jersey and Virginia, both of which have competitive governors' races this year, the prospect of a visit from the party's 2008 vice presidential nominee has so far drawn a muted response from the GOP contenders in both states.

and

For their part, Democrats in both New Jersey and Virginia were eager to link their rival GOP contenders to Palin.

Since it's an AP News story, it will be reprinted in many newspapers on Wednesday. Another method of finding the full story is to go to the AP News site (http://www.ap.org), use the '7 Day Search' option, and type 'Palin' as the search criteria, then look for one title as, or similar to, "GOP candidates in Va., NJ wary of Palin".

And yes, let her be the 2012 GOOPer candidate. Her margin of defeat would probably make Goldwater's look close.

Mike in Maryland

My Blogger ID is http://www.blogger.com/profile/02848893412251095965

In comparing Obama and Palin, it is odd that you l...

2009-07-07T10:44:24.732-04:00

In comparing Obama and Palin, it is odd that you leave substance completely out of the discussion. The biggest difference between the two is not message control, but message: when you ask Obama a question, you get an answer that relates to the question and is generally indicative of familiarity with the issue at hand, and with a policy position if appropriate; when you ask Palin a similar question, it is difficult to characterize what you get, but it's clearly not the same kind of answer. This has nothing to do with whether or not you agree with either's position on any issue. It means that Palin's flakiness is not the result of loose message control, but of lack of message content. Obama's "gravitas", if you will, comes not from steely message control, but from a lot of message content. Which would make experience an irrelevant variable, and what you do with the experience more important.

Obama has been thinking about and studying with di...

2009-07-07T09:21:47.537-04:00

Obama has been thinking about and studying with discipline important public policy issues (like nuclear proliferation) since he was a youth. He was a community organizer where among other things he led a hugely successful get out the vote effort, a harvard law student, an attorney, a constitutional law professor, a state and then national senator.

Palin, on the other hand, has been a beauty queen, a sportscaster, a city council member then mayor of a town of 6000, and then a less than half term governor.

In each position Obama excelled. Talk to his peers and superiors from any of his past positions and they rave about him. Can Palin claim anything similar?

It would take a lifetime to bridge the talent, intelligence, discipline, and experience gap between Obama and Palin. When you factor those things in, and why shouldn't you, the comparison in this article is ridiculous. Obama appears to be have rocketed out of nowhere, but if you really look at his experience, he's been preparing for the Presidency for at least 20+ years, arguably much longer.

Chris Of Rights, Ever hear of literary allusion a...

2009-07-06T21:14:30.328-04:00

Chris Of Rights,

Ever hear of literary allusion and/or comparison with a recent and quite topical situation?

Probably not, since you are apparently a GOOPer. And we KNOW the average curiosity factor of the GOOPers, and ability of GOOPers to do research, is quite low - actually almost non-existent.

(Warning - Your personal average may differ, higher or lower, from the total average.)

Mike in Maryland

My Blogger ID is http://www.blogger.com/profile/02848893412251095965

How is an affair such a stretch given our recent e...

2009-07-06T20:16:04.308-04:00

How is an affair such a stretch given our recent entertain by "Don't Cry for Me Argentina (because I'll do it while vititing you)" Sanford's peccadilloes?

Last I checked, she and Sanford are not the same person.

And it wasn't just an affair you were assuming (a debunked one, mind you), but a bastard child. You went from stupid to ridiculous in one easy step.

By your logic, I should assume that all Democrats like to drive off bridges and kill people.

Or that they all keep $100,000 in fridges in their offices.

Or that they all have 6 rent-controlled apartments in New York.

Or that they all are friends of Angelo.

Sell crazy someplace else. We're all stocked up here.

@Francis - The reason vouchers have failed so spec...

2009-07-06T19:35:36.831-04:00

@Francis - The reason vouchers have failed so spectacularly is because they break the Blaine Amendments in the state constitutions that have them (39 of the 50 states, to be specific).

It is supremely ironic that the main reasons Blaine Amendments exist is because Christian fundamentalists were afraid of government funding Catholic schools, thereby giving them what they believed to be theological legitimacy. Now those same fundamentalists want the Blaine Amendments repealed because their churches are in financial trouble (despite paying no tax) and need a bailout from big-government because they can't stand on their own.

Chris of Rights - We come up with them from the r...

2009-07-06T16:00:00.750-04:00

Chris of Rights -

We come up with them from the running soap opera and serial infidelities of politicians in general and Republican politicians in specific. The rumors of a possible affair were sparked after the "First Dude's" business partner's wife filed for divorce and the Palins subsequently petitioned to have the divorce filings and proceedings sealed. How is an affair such a stretch given our recent entertain by "Don't Cry for Me Argentina (because I'll do it while vititing you)" Sanford's peccadilloes?

Grog, If you think Palin is intelligent, then you...

2009-07-06T13:56:07.635-04:00

Grog,

If you think Palin is intelligent, then you are more stupid then you have shown thus far.

No one is afraid of her, people hold her stupidity against her and rightly so.

Here's an interesting idea. Perhaps the other shoe...

2009-07-06T13:03:46.459-04:00

Here's an interesting idea. Perhaps the other shoe is not corruption or whether or not Trig (side note: why a devout Christian woman would name her child after a pagan god is beyond me) is her child, but rather, perhaps, given the rumors that Palin had had an affair with Todd's business partner, perhaps Trig is actually not Todd's.

And perhaps Obama's not human, he's actually a cyborg.

Seriously, where do you people come up with these things? And why do you bother?

Here's an interesting idea. Perhaps the other sho...

2009-07-06T12:46:52.591-04:00

@Francis - What is considered to be "conservatism"...

2009-07-06T11:06:11.790-04:00

@Francis - What is considered to be "conservatism" has a very different meaning today than it did forty years ago, largely because of the passing of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and the success of Nixon's "Southern Strategy" that weaned the Dixiecrats and Wallace supporters away from the Democratic Party (and the brief split into the AIP) and into the GOP. By the time Reagan rolled around, the people who ideologically the Republican Party was expressly formed to oppose were the dominant force in the Party and by 1994 they had absolute control, something they have not yet relinquished.

While the GOP still claims to be the party of limited-government conservatism that hasn't been true in reality since the late '60s. The politics of today's GOP is is effectively Stalinist Communism with a Southern Baptist veneer slapped over it bolstered by exceptional marketing skills.

You want to see who is really reducing the size and power of big-government? Here is the data from 1985-2005 regarding federal civilian employment from the OPM. According to the old definition of conservatism, the most conservative president we've had in the last 25 years was Clinton.

9/85 - Reagan - 1,831,912
9/86 - Reagan - 1,811,895
9/87 - Reagan - 1,856,980
9/88 - Reagan - 1,854,898
9/89 - Bush I - 1,878,221
9/90 - Bush I - 1,879,821
9/91 - Bush I - 1,905,840
9/92 - Bush I - 1,899,086
9/93 - Clinton - 1,841,539
9/94 - Clinton - 1,780,110
9/95 - Clinton - 1,717,931
9/96 - Clinton - 1,662,907
9/97 - Clinton - 1,607,813
9/98 - Clinton - 1,582,186
9/99 - Clinton - 1,562,830
9/00 - Clinton - 1,551,689
9/01 - Bush II - 1,568,543
9/02 - Bush II - 1,608,513
9/03 - Bush II - 1,603,386
9/04 - Bush II - 1,631,894
9/05 - Bush II - 1,638,155
9/06 - Bush II - 1,631,008

Federal civilian employment, which was already high during the Reagan years, kept climbing until the peak of 1991. During the Clinton years they went down every single year, sometimes quite dramatically early on in his administration when he had a Democratic congress. When he had a Republican congress, the decreases were generally smaller but still present. When Bush Jr. was inaugurated the federal civilian employment rate went back up again although not quite to the level of the Reagan/Bush Sr. years.
Note that these are the civilian employment rates. Military employment is not included in these figures (I haven't looked for them) but it is probably safe to assume that because of the strong military policies of the Republican presidencies combined with the figures shown above that overall federal employment under Republican administrations was significantly higher than it has been under Democratic administration.

If there is any political party that is using big-government to create jobs, it is the Republicans. The civilian federal government was
roughly 20% smaller when Clinton left office as compared to when Bush Sr. left office. The era when the GOP was the party of small-
government ended very dramatically with Reagan.

And to think a lot of people back then thought Dur...

2009-07-06T09:14:24.868-04:00

And to think a lot of people back then thought Durbin would not be liberal enough to succeed the bespectacled prairie progressive properly.

Durbin got elected to the US Senate in 1996 suceed...

2009-07-06T08:35:07.962-04:00

Durbin got elected to the US Senate in 1996 suceeding the great Paul Simon after serving 14 years in the US House of Representatives. In 2004 Durbin was elected Senate Democratic Whip.

@flcounselor: How come you give bonus points to S...

2009-07-06T06:53:47.952-04:00

@flcounselor: How come you give bonus points to Sarah Palin just for being female.

Its stuff like this I hate. OH MY GOD A WOMAN CAN DO THIS!

As a male I see this as giving special privliges/credit to women. Many women view this type of thing as condescending.

Its 2009. We should not have to treat women with kid gloves. Palin has done nothing more than use her looks and gender to get her way. And its a real shame because not all female politicians are like this.

Even worse she enforces pretty much every single stereotype:

(x) Uses her gender to get her way
(x) Uses her looks to get her way
(x) narcissistic
(x) ditz
(x) over inflated sense of worth
(x) victim complex

When guys give bonus points to a female for being an attractive woman in fuels women to try to use their looks/gender to their advantage rather move up the ladder on their own merit.

When women go the other way and just use their gender and looks to coast through life (the sarah palin method) all it does is fuel sexism in both directions. Women will complain that men will only give good looking women a chance to move up the ladder and men will complain that good looking women get whatever they want in life by abusing the power their looks and gender give them over men.

The funny thing, Grog, is the fact that Sarah Pali...

2009-07-06T06:22:30.312-04:00

The funny thing, Grog, is the fact that Sarah Palin is a woman is the ONLY thing I like about her, even a little bit. It is her one redeeming value.

Same thing with Ann Coulter. If only that skinny blonde would keep her pie-hole shut, I could maybe like on her a lot!

Definitely Condoleezza Rice, too. And maybe even Michelle Malkin.

As opposed to, say, "conservative males" such as Newt Gingrich, Karl Rove, Glenn Beck, Lou Dobbs, and especially Rush Limbaugh, all of whom can find absolutely no use for whatsoever...

Francis said... . . . I am certainly ready to go w...

2009-07-06T03:50:54.619-04:00

Francis said...
. . . I am certainly ready to go with vouchers and whatever else it takes to break the teachers unions.

So, Francis, are you against public education?

If so, why?

And just what is it that makes you HATE the teachers unions? An explanation would seem to be in order. And not an explanation that just says "They're greedy", but a rational basis for a list of reasons for your obvious hatred of the teachers unions.

Mike in Maryland

My Blogger ID is http://www.blogger.com/profile/02848893412251095965

Call me when Palin is sworn in as POTUS in Jan. 20...

2009-07-06T03:26:22.341-04:00

Call me when Palin is sworn in as POTUS in Jan. 2013. But don't blame me when you turn blue waiting for that to happen.

You know, I do hate that Palin is a woman. Why do ...

2009-07-06T02:27:56.358-04:00

You know, I do hate that Palin is a woman. Why do I hate this? Because she represents and re-enforces the exact incompetent-but-good-looking, overreaching ditz stereo-type that my daughter is likely have to fight to be taken seriously.

But really that anger is aimed the corrrect target. No, not Palin. She just gets derision, and at times a little pity. Instead my anger is aimed at the elements of the GOP who harbour in their minds this stereotype, whose projection of there idea of what "woman" means and what women have to offer, whoses twisted ideas of "affirmative action" and tokenism makes this circus possible. :(

Franci - Before her selection by McCain, Palin was...

2009-07-06T02:17:12.078-04:00

Franci - Before her selection by McCain, Palin was a typically inconsistent, petty governor. She spent most of her time getting revenge on her political enemies and doling out oil revenues to the citizens of her state, making Alaska the model for socialism in the United States.

But after McCain selected her it all changed.

She is now a conservative everywoman. She is not only anti-abortion, even for rape and incest victims, but while she "believes" in evolution ("my parents, after all, were school teachers"), she believes that evolution was directed by God. And occurred over the last 6000 years (or so).

She quit on July 3 because her state's oil revenues are way down and the governor later this year (no longer her) is going to have to preside over a whopping tax increase for all Alaskans, and/or cut off the oil revenues that each Alaskan looks upon as his/her due.

Since raising taxes, much like abortion, is anathema to Republicans, she had no choice but to quit in order to answer her "higher calling."

In other words, she is a first class hypocite along with everything else. And this moron had the gall to complain about the politics of personal destruction even as she whipped up crowds while attempting personally to destroy Obama with lies. Pallin around with terrorists. Yes, one of the candidates was and was actually sleeping with a successionist.

So, Sarah Palin's Wikipedia entry is not to be relied upon. It's all made up bullshit. Just like her.

You betcha.