Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: For Obama, Will Familiarity Erode Contempt?

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Hey Nate,Another thought as to the causality relat...

2008-11-20T02:07:00.000-05:00

Hey Nate,
Another thought as to the causality relationship here. Because the presence of blacks in a southern state seems to be heavily correlated with how much of a slave state it was, I'd be willing to bet that states with more blacks tend to be more racist states. For example, in 2001 blacks constituted 16% of Arkansas, 11% of Missouri, 22% of North Carolina, and a whopping 36% of Mississippi. I'd be willing to bet that Mississippi is the most racist of those states, and the two facts stem from the same causal factor.
Cheers, thanks for the work you do!
Michael, 23, Los Angeles

(my data is from http://www.census.gov/prod/2001pubs/c2kbr01-5.pdf)

I think what this proves statistically is that the...

2008-11-19T13:05:00.000-05:00

I think what this proves statistically is that the more blacks you live around, the more likely you are to be racist.

I have to say I completely agree with this assessment. Why would you learn, over your life, to hate the culture of a particular race if you haven't had to deal with it?

I wish I could say that familiarity will break dow...

2008-11-18T21:13:00.000-05:00

I wish I could say that familiarity will break down the color barrier, but I'm not so sure. I grew up in Kentucky, a nominal border state, but a particularly racist one. I expect that Obama did poorly in the states you mention because they lead the country in the proportion of under class, uneducated, evangelical whites. Minorities, women and glb-types always get the short end of the stick in these areas, at least in my areas. As education level rises, fundamentalism wanes and tolerance increases. Look and Jefferson and Fayette Counties in Kentucky, Davidson County in Tennessee, Fulton County, Georgia, etc. These are all urban areas with large universities in which a majority of white voters are well educated and middle to upper middle class. Obama did well in all of these areas. Obama's wins in Virginia and North Carolina were based on the relative increase in well educated white suburban voters over the last ten years. I have a feeling that is why they were targeted to begin with. I think Texas and Georgia will make good targets in 2012 because both states have strong university systems, have increasing numbers of upper middle class jobs available and both states have rapidly rising latino populations (which give an added boost). Unfortunately, states renowned for their backwardness (Arkansas, Oklahoma, Mississippi, Louisiana) will probably remain safe republican districts for many years to come.

Wow I hardly ever post and I havent been on 538 fo...

2008-11-18T21:02:00.000-05:00

Wow I hardly ever post and I havent been on 538 for a couple of days.
I'll take my spanking and promise never to miss it again!
I live in San Fran now but grew up in Memphis.
My first memories at 7 were the Garbage strike and the lines drawn. Then King being killed.
My mother crying, my grandfather happy, my grandmother worried.
Going over to my Great-grandparents that night.
My Mama and Papa.
Papa who showed me that 330 dollar pension check from the UAW and Ford EVERY month.
Mama who would not allow the n word around her.
God lives in this house Son---to my father.
Papa telling me that night that when men stand up sometimes they are beaten down, but Son you must stand up for what you believe.

Obama did that standing up.
Thanks Nate for your optimism and the numbers to back that up.

When I came out at 19 and my dad threw me out
and I lived in SF penniless and scared about AIDS.
His Dad, who ran with the Klan in Mississippi as a young man and im sure did many bad things, sent me 150 dollars a month and these prayers of forgiveness. Asking me to forgive my father.
I would have never have known how much he had changed if I hadn't stood up.

I celebrate the 48% of the Cali electorate who voted for gay marriage and the 11% of white people in Mississippi who voted for a black man for president of the USA.

I would like to see an age break down of white sou...

2008-11-18T19:12:00.000-05:00

I would like to see an age break down of white southern voters.

My reasoning: I grew up in Florida (Belle Glade and West Palm Beach) between 1943 and 1954. African-Americans were sent to the back of the bus; had separate public facilities; were excluded from many retail stores and had separate schools and communities. I never knew an AA until I moved to Denver in 1955. When I visited relatives in Florida, I heard the n-word often and it grated on my nerves. As a young child no one near me questioned racism, it was like the air we breathed. I have to believe later generations grew up aware of the social poison inherent in racism.

JW

The other factor no one (besides Mark L) seems to ...

2008-11-18T19:04:00.000-05:00

The other factor no one (besides Mark L) seems to be mentioning is how much KERRY campaigned in the states under review. In a state where Kerry didn't campaign, but Obama did, we should expect to see even bigger gains than in states where both campaigned (like Florida).

http://kromkowski.blogspot.com/2008_08_01_archive....

2008-11-18T15:59:00.000-05:00

http://kromkowski.blogspot.com/2008_08_01_archive.html

It seems to me that the whole analysis would make much more sense if the discussion moved beyond this artificial and homogenized notion of "white". The ancestry data and the religion data are what you need to look at. Moreover, the presence of African Americans is a confounding non-continuous variable.

Just take a look at the Kerry vote by county in Michigan vs. % of African American population.

I notice this pollster graph never includes DC. I...

2008-11-18T15:54:00.000-05:00

I notice this pollster graph never includes DC. I guess they can get away with skipping DC because it's not a state, but the real reason might be that it breaks the pattern. Obama won the white vote in DC, and DC also has a very high proportion of African American voters.

Thomas:As a person who has lived all over the stat...

2008-11-18T14:47:00.000-05:00

Thomas:

As a person who has lived all over the states, I disagree with you.

Racism has a different flavor in the south, as opposed to the north. It is much stronger and is more in the open. It is also more accepted.

When I worked the polls in January, the person sitting next to me said "I bet they'll be alot of them coming out to vote for Obama." He didn't say it with malice, but he did express it as such. It seemeed to him just an ordinary thing to say. You probably would not hear this from a stranger in the north.

In the north, you are more likely to get the "we even have a black in our group" type comment. The Bradley effect was very common in the past in the north. People who would not want others to realize they wre voting against the black just because he was black. There was very little evidence of the Bradley effect in the south, since people could say they were voting against the black.

In California (and the southwest), racism is more directed against the latinos (and also against the asains), but not as much against blacks.

I always get a kick out of people who attack south...

2008-11-18T13:52:00.000-05:00

I always get a kick out of people who attack southern people for bigotry. Irony is the greatest form of humor.

The South is heavily Republican amongst whites. White people in the South voted for the Republican, not against the black guy. The South is much more racially enlightened than the North. Most Southern whites would have no problem with a black president, he'd just have to be a conservative. It's the Northern whites that have the racist views.

This comes from a Northerner who has lived in the South.

Are you measuring how much time Obama spent campai...

2008-11-18T13:33:00.000-05:00

Are you measuring how much time Obama spent campaigning in each state in absolute terms or relative to how much time Kerry had campaigned in the same state? I would interpret Obama's outperforming Kerry among whites in a given state differently if I knew that Kerry had campaigned in that state more than, the same amount as, or less than Obama. It is possible that Obama campaigned in VA, SC, and NC more than Kerry - and that Kerry would have come closer to matching Obama's performance among whites if he had campaigned there as much as Obama.

I am more struck by the results from states where I am sure neither candidate did much campaigning... and Obama's under-performance among whites in those states.

Isn't there also a correlation between levels of p...

2008-11-18T12:57:00.000-05:00

Isn't there also a correlation between levels of poverty, education, college towns, and high tech companies in the election results?

wv: embinis - a bikini I'm embarrassed by.

Mr O did come to Birmingham once in the primaries,...

2008-11-18T12:09:00.000-05:00

Mr O did come to Birmingham once in the primaries, packed the house at Boutwell Arena. In Nov Jefferson county went blue for the first time in a long time, while the rest of the state basically stayed the same as 2004.

On closer reading of this post, I actually think i...

2008-11-18T11:43:00.000-05:00

On closer reading of this post, I actually think it misses the point of what racism is. Nate says racism is a "spectrum" from whites who are very racist to just a little racist or not racist at all. That refers to our *attitudes* - prejudice - but racism is not about personal attitudes, it's about structures of society - which are fundamentally racist and are unlikely to transform significantly in four years no matter who is president. Even a completely "non-racist" white person still benefits from white privilege on a structural/social level.

On the attitude level, I would also suggest that just because a white person voted for Obama does not mean they are not prejudiced. As pointed out in an insightful discussion on NPR of race relations post-Obama, "many white people who voted for president-elect Obama might nonetheless object to him living in their neighborhood." Let's not forget all the voters who told Obama canvassers things like "we're voting for the [n-word]." Are they not racist? Or are they just so angry with what has happened for the last 8 years that they will vote for any Democrat regardless of their prejudices?

Speaking as a sociology academic, racism is more e...

2008-11-18T11:29:00.000-05:00

Speaking as a sociology academic, racism is more evident when there is a large POOR black population. Poor people of all races are more likely to be involved in drugs and crime (out of desperation and lack of options). In non-blacks, a large poor black population sets up a false correlation between skin color and negative or fearful attributes that get publicity in the paper and on the news.

This would also explain a focus on the south; where there are large populations of poor blacks.

That might also explain the focus of Obama's efforts in these states, these are votes he can get.

We can see this effect mitigated in melting pot cities, where the poor are composed of several races and not one predominate race. In such areas (like New York City), crime and drugs are more associated with poverty (the real cause) than with any particular race.

"There are some analogies here to homophobia, in t...

2008-11-18T10:54:00.000-05:00

"There are some analogies here to homophobia, in that people become much more tolerant of gay people once a friend, workmate or family member has come out to them. The idea that you can say, Greg is gay, but guess what -- I know Greg, and he's a pretty good dude is very powerful. Prejudice is global, but tolerance is local."

As an out 'n' proud Greg, I have to thank Nate for giving me my new screen name: Pretty Cool Dude!

Other commenters have used words like “Rethuglican...

2008-11-18T10:25:00.000-05:00

Other commenters have used words like “Rethuglicans” and “mindset of simple people” to describe white people in the Southern states. One of the points of the article is to see racism, like all prejudices, as lying on a continuum.

One good step toward healing the hatred in this country is to speak respectfully of every other citizen.