Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Minnesota Challenged Ballot Examples

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2009-10-02T05:06:27.714-04:00

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2009-08-28T02:41:32.063-04:00

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2009-04-16T04:04:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-08T04:37:00.000-05:00

This won't be over until the 12,000 erroneously re...

2008-12-02T14:05:00.000-05:00

This won't be over until the 12,000 erroneously rejected absentee ballot envelopes are evaluated and some percentage of those, probably 5-10% are judged valid, or minor defects allowed to be corrected, and then they're counted.

The matter will probably end up being decided by the MN Supremes.

Please don't let that halfwit criminal Franken ste...

2008-12-02T13:04:00.000-05:00

Please don't let that halfwit criminal Franken steal the election.

That is the reason Obama is not as happy as he should be after this "historic" election. He knows if ballots were checked Acorn and his other buddies have forged enough votes to steal the election again.

Remember 1960 where they found out JFK did not really win - the Daly machine voted the cemetaries and Obama was trained by them.

He learned well - just study his past hijinks.

John,That's Gnarls Barkley to you.And I intend on ...

2008-12-02T12:27:00.000-05:00

John,

That's Gnarls Barkley to you.

And I intend on donating alot of money to the future Governor Barkley. I'm not much into sports, but that man surprises me in a good way every time I hear him speak.

IT' OVER!Nate, book your concession speech for Rac...

2008-12-02T10:34:00.000-05:00

IT' OVER!

Nate, book your concession speech for Rachel's show ASAP!

http://www.minnpost.com/braublog/2008/12/02/4936/mpr_franken_challenges_more_bogus

Just finished my analysis (Wow, 850 ballots are A ...

2008-12-02T04:53:00.000-05:00

Just finished my analysis (Wow, 850 ballots are A LOT!).

Bottom line: Franken is close, probably a few ten's of votes, but not yet over the top.

Caveats: With not nearly enough data from big challenge-generating counties, and with big uniformity problems, there's not a lot we can make of it- take my conclusion with a whole barrel of salt. Some challenge types are so county specific (sometimes precinct- and perhaps table-specific) that there's no telling where it'll go.
Also, my rules are as bad as anyone else's, excpet for the State Canvassing Board, and they don't post on 538.

Key takeaway: Franken has a slight edge in challenge "quality", but not enough to close the gap as it now stands. He'll need to do better in the ballots we don't have available to win this election.

But the main thing is that some "procedural" rulings by the canvassing board may have a huge impact on the results. Some of the recurring challenges require consistent judgement calls (the "dot in other oval" and "multiple write-in's" mentioned above are both good examples), and some are totally procedural, and I don't know how will the law be interpreted (torn ballots, wrong precinct ballots, duplicates or originals missing and many others).

Bottom bottom line: we just don't frigging know.

wv: rackedu.
"Did you have rackedu in school today?"
"Sure dad, I fired my first shotgun!"
"Why that's great, son!"

>>Can we put Dean Barkley in there to hold the sea...

2008-12-02T00:32:00.000-05:00

>>Can we put Dean Barkley in there to hold the seat until it's officially decided for sure who wins?

As long as he's not related to Charles Barkley, possible Democratic candidate for Governor of Alabama.

Can we put Dean Barkley in there to hold the seat ...

2008-12-02T00:23:00.000-05:00

Can we put Dean Barkley in there to hold the seat until it's officially decided for sure who wins? I kinda like the guy.

>> Are today's results good or bad news for Fra...

2008-12-01T23:11:00.000-05:00

>> Are today's results good or bad news for Franken?
>> Please explain.
>> Looks bad to me.

I just ran the numbers through my system (I'm a database geek). If we go through the system and just take the delta (difference), you get the number previous mentioned.

However, if you make a blanket call to throw out ALL challenges (with the not very scientific thinking that the majority of frivolous challenges will cancel themselves out) and back those numbers back into the mix, Franken has picked up 63 votes since the Election was certified.

However... he was down 215 at that time and thus he would still be down 152 votes. A lot of this will depend on the non-frivolous challenges and the court challenge on the absentee ballots.

My guess is that it will go to the Senate and they will decide who to seat. I think it might go the way of the New Hampshire election of 1974 and probably it will end in a re-voting at some point.

Read more about it here: http://www.eagletribune.com/punews/local_story_335011452.html

-- John

One more interesting ballot, Wadena_P2#8. By my "...

2008-12-01T22:57:00.000-05:00

One more interesting ballot, Wadena_P2#8. By my "click-and-drag" principle, the voter did not "obliterate" Barkley clearly enough, so it goes as an overvote. Which seems to be the initial ruling, as this shows as challenged by Franken. But you'd have to say the mind-change toward Franken is pretty clear.

Is anyone maintaining a list of "interesting ballots"?

I, too, apparently have no life. I'm at:Coleman 2...

2008-12-01T22:52:00.000-05:00

I, too, apparently have no life. I'm at:
Coleman 254
Franken 235
Other 111

I also have a newfound sense of respect for the incumbent soil and water commissioner in my conservation district. Never again shall I write in my name in opposition to that dude, lest some D-bag accuse me later of "identifying" my ballot.

One more observation: The challenge gap is more th...

2008-12-01T22:45:00.000-05:00

One more observation: The challenge gap is more than made up by Minneapolis and St. Louis County (Duluth) alone:

STL
Franken -126 from 228 Coleman challenges
Coleman -069 from 128 by Franken

MPL
Franken -179 from 250 Coleman challenges
Coleman -083 from 134 by Franken.

STP
Franken -019 from 68 Coleman challenges
Coleman -053 from 63 by Franken.

Ummm, I don't know what to infer...

I cannot describe the very strange mix of emotions...

2008-12-01T22:37:00.000-05:00

I cannot describe the very strange mix of emotions I am feeling right now. On the one hand, I have just received my credit card bill -it's really ugly, and almost all of it is political contributions. Mood: Down.

It appears Franken is in a good position at the moment. He's leading in the recount, but then again, those challenged ballots haven't been looked at yet. And they still won't look at the damned absentee ballots. Mood: Cautiously hopeful.

Jim Martin may or may not win in Georgia. Most folks on this site say he won't, including Nate and Sean. Mood: Hopeful, but very nervous.

Canada is getting ready to oust the robotic Stephen Harper in favor of a coalition government between the NDP and the Liberals. I like the NDP, and really don't mind the Liberals so much, even if Stephane Dion does look like he wandered into the party convention to use the bathroom and got elected party leader by accident. Harper's environmental policy is odious, and he got waaay to close to Bush, so I won't mind if he goes. Still, they delayed the confidence vote for a week, and I wonder what's up his sleeve. And I do wish the coalition government plans would include the Bloc. Mood: Suspicious.

Finals are coming up soon. Mood: Anxiety-ridden.

Lately, I've been thinking that it's not very healthy for me to be so wrapped up in politics. I need to get a life. Mood: Meh.

Thanks for the comments!I'm really rooting for Fra...

2008-12-01T22:05:00.000-05:00

Thanks for the comments!
I'm really rooting for Franken.
Let's hope for the best...
I also hope for more words of wisdom from Nate.

Nobody knows. There's also the Fobbes Factor. As...

2008-12-01T21:51:00.000-05:00

Nobody knows. There's also the Fobbes Factor. As I think other commenters have noted, not all the challenges are by Franken or Coleman---this one by Democrat Lisa Fobbe for State Senate nicked Franken a vote, what a traitor!

As for the current situation, one thing to note is that for a long time the portion of the vote recounted favored Coleman by 14,000--19,000 or so. A very blue portion was counted today, so that comparison with the 11/4 totals means that of the ballots that haven't been touched yet, almost 2,000 more of them are for Coleman. So the higher "challenge gap" may be masking that Franken picked up more new votes today---but Coleman has the greater "new-vote" potential from here on out. Or maybe every former undervote is winding up in the challenge pile---who knows??

@William Land,It's like reading tea leaves.If we a...

2008-12-01T21:44:00.000-05:00

@William Land,
It's like reading tea leaves.
If we apply KWRegan (and my) type of analysis, the net change today in the challenge differential vs yesterday is 191 vs 147 (using KWR numbers for yesterday, as mine are buried too far). That's an additional 44 challenge gap for Coleman.

At the same time, Coleman's edge widened to 344 acc to SOS (340 acc. to Strib, which I trust less) from 282. That's a 62 larger.

Subtracting all these new incremental challenges assumed to be frivolous, we get a net gain for Coleman of 62-44=18, unless my arithmetic is suffering after first Monday back at work.

OTOH, Franken is leading in the recount for the first time as they are starting to close out Hennepin and Ramsey county. In the gross recount totals he is up be > 4200 afair.

Overall, I was hoping for something the other way: Franken gaining 18 net, but being down in the gross recount total a bit.
That's why I'd like to hear Mark Elias spin this for me, and better yet, Nate :).

~Latte

wv - genswiga, as in "I am getting ready for a good genswiga right about now. Straight up. Bombay."

Are today's results good or bad news for Franken?P...

2008-12-01T21:33:00.000-05:00

Are today's results good or bad news for Franken?
Please explain.
Looks bad to me.

SOS just updatedFranken 11/4 1,107,528Franken now...

2008-12-01T21:21:00.000-05:00

SOS just updated

Franken 11/4 1,107,528
Franken now 1,105,030
LOST 2,498

Coleman 11/4 1,103,291
Coleman now 1,100,922
LOST 2,369

Delta = 215 + 129 = 344

Challenges
Coleman 3068
Franken 2876

Coleman leads the challenges by a new high of 192.

Waiting to hear Elias take.

~Latte

wv - ciessec: the sickly feeling one gets in response to Betty McCallum's clandestine moves to get Ciresse backed in during the MN primaries

Okay here's my take:1) Al Franken should appeal to...

2008-12-01T15:57:00.000-05:00

Okay here's my take:

1) Al Franken should appeal to get the absentee ballots reviewed. There's no legitimate reason why they can't at least look at them and see if they were rejected properly or not. Quality Control should be a part of every government entity.

2) In the interim, the Senate should appoint Dean Barkley to serve as Senator until the mess with the ballots is cleared up. He's already been a Senator for Minnesota, so he doesn't need training to be effective, and he's neither Dem nor Repub, so it's not like he'd show undue favortism to either party during the interim period he will temporarily fill.

3) The press should chill the fuck out on the post-mortems. Nobody's looked at the challenged ballots yet, and since most of those appear to be frivolous on both sides, but nobody really knows what the exact number of frivolous ones are, let's face it, the margin of error here is just huge.

4) Al Franken should stay in the fight as long as he possibly can, and pursue every legitimate avenue available to him. Before appealing to the Senate to decide who should serve as Senator, he should exhaust every attempt to get the voters of Minnesota's votes counted. If that means a drawn out court battle, so be it. He's got nothing to lose and everything to gain.

Several commenters here have observed that the "id...

2008-12-01T15:11:00.000-05:00

Several commenters here have observed that the "identifying marks" have been "redacted", though I haven't seen official confirmation of this, nor anything on the nature of what was redacted.

The one such challenge in ballots I saw that looked arguable was where someone wrote in "Gerald (or Gregor?) Andersen" for third different offices, and on the third, a vote-for-3, wrote in two other Andersens. Are there limits to what one can do with write-ins? There must be some limits, else they could be used to identify. I voted to uphold the challenge (by Franken)---that and granting an overvote challenge by Franken were my only two excludes.

As of right now by the STrib's tally, the gap has gone from 282 down to 270 (-12), while the challenge differential has gone from 147 down to 115 (-32). Unless the domains of the STrib's challenge and ballot figures are different (and in-midday I've had reason to suspect they get out of sync), this seems reasonable to infer that Franken has made a bunch of non-vote challenges today---net about 20 +- 5 more than Coleman. I say "about" because it could also be that Coleman has picked up more undervotes than Franken, but a-priori it seems unlikely that he's netted 5 more than Franken in the limited counting so far today.

Rolling Stone story on the recount, spotted via TheUptake.org.