Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Will Kay Bailey Hutchison Play Texas Hold 'Em?

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2009-10-12T04:05:02.636-04:00

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2009-09-06T03:36:05.389-04:00

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2009-08-03T23:09:52.646-04:00

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2009-07-22T03:53:00.564-04:00

The only one who got this right is freedom's truth...

2009-07-19T21:00:59.298-04:00

The only one who got this right is freedom's truth. It is the economy stupid. Texas has been able to weather this down turn pretty well and the incumbant in office always gets the credit or blame whether deserved or not.

Perry has made a tremendous comeback in Texas. If it wasn't for Kinky and Strayhorn splitting the vote, he would have lost the last election. Since then, Texas has weathered some pretty serious disasters:

1. I already mentioned the economy, also throw in the budget. While the Californians are dropping markers all over town we in Texas are sipping our Margaritas and laughing at their ineptness.

2. Katrina: As an admitted Perry hater, I have to say that I was very impressed with the way he opened up our state to the evacuees

2a. Rita: Two weeks later another monster storm almost hit Houston/Galveston. The evacuation of Houston was an unmitigated disaster. My own cousin tried to flee with his family, but got stuck in a 12 hour traffc jam and eventually had to go back or run out of gas. Fortunately for Perry, the storm veered off, which saved him any blame and exposed the inadequies of Houston's disaster plan. This was a blessing because...

3. Ike: ...this year Houston/Galveston did get directly hit by a nasty storm. After the dry run of Rita, the response to Ike was flawless. The people in inland houston stayed put while those nearer the coast fled. After, the response was well coordinated. Like Rita, this storm helped Texas in the next disaster. By reducing the available housing stock, and those affected being compensated by insurance, I think this storm helped blunt some of the sting from the housing crunch.

Perry is by no means out of the woods. Word is that Texas's budget issues will be coming next year. I think how that goes down will turn the election.

Texan here. Frankly, given the way the governor h...

2009-07-19T02:54:57.342-04:00

Texan here.

Frankly, given the way the governor has very little power, I was surprised at Hutchinson's interest, until someone mentioned her age. She's not looking for a springboard to power, but rather a transition from a public servant to retirement, which the governor's mansion would provide.

Frankly, I feel like joining her campaign for the primary though I probably wouldn't vote for her in the general, simply because I don't want Perry around for any longer. He's an embarrassment who panders to the fundies and kooks. KBH isn't any more sincere, but at least she tends to play both sides against the middle.

In any case, I'd rather see Bill White not go up against her in his Senate bid.

And yet another Texan: As a Dem who watches the T...

2009-07-16T18:06:32.369-04:00

And yet another Texan:

As a Dem who watches the TX GOP closely...

Perry (a certifiable idiot) has the Christianist wing-nuts wrapped up -- but he doesn't have enough sense to reach out to the balance of the party: urban-suburban/educated/social moderates.

KBH will do better with the state's fiscal conservatives (despite the TARP vote). These folks are downright embarrassed by the guy.

Perry's supporters are rabid and will turn out big-time. KBH's huge challenge will be to get her base out.

Unless Perry is caught in bed with a live boy (and there are plenty of rumors) or a dead girl, he'll likely win the primary.

This is the best scenario for the the Dems.

Frank: Yet another Texan's view: Perry is not p...

2009-07-16T15:52:30.160-04:00

Frank: Yet another Texan's view: Perry is not popular here except with the true wing nuts.

Be careful assuming that the natives, like Frank and others commenting here, are offering an accurate "view from the ground" analysis.

In the University of Texas poll, Perry had 42% approval rating versus 32% disapproval *. In the Texas Lyceum poll it was 57% approve vs. 30% disapprove**. In both polls, right under 30% IDed as Democrats.

Now Frank may well believe that somewhere between 40 and 60 percent of Texans are "true wing nuts" but don't be fooled in to thinking that Perry is somehow admired only by a small fringe of the state.

* http://www.laits.utexas.edu/txp_media/html/poll/files/200906-summary.pdf
**http://www.texaslyceum.org/media/staticContent/PubCon_Journals/2009/texas_lyceum_2009_poll_results.pdf

This would make for an interesting primary... Perr...

2009-07-16T01:23:44.062-04:00

This would make for an interesting primary... Perry a former TAMU yell leader and Hutchison a former Longhorn cheerleader. Hopefully all voting Aggies in the state will put their "gung-ho" differences aside and cast their vote for the candidate that is much better for our state... even if her blood does run orange! ;o)

Freedom's Truth: Don't forget Texas is also the ...

2009-07-15T21:54:44.816-04:00

Freedom's Truth:
Don't forget Texas is also the Biggest State in the Country!
(wait for the ice to melt.) :)

"BUT look at the numbers. Tough to correlate a mov...

2009-07-15T19:07:25.485-04:00

"BUT look at the numbers. Tough to correlate a move from KBH to Perry. Rather, votes are moving from KBH to undecided."

Correlation is clear: KBH fell from grace after voting for TARP.

Oh ... 3 reasons KBH will lose the primary: #6. KB...

2009-07-15T19:05:20.337-04:00

Oh ... 3 reasons KBH will lose the primary:
#6. KBH voted for the bailout, TARP. That's a very unpopular vote and its why Perry campaign is calling her "Senator Bailout". Perry has his issue, and that issue alone is enough for grassroots conservatives to reject KBH.
#7. Prolife vote will go Perry.
#8. Perry has run a more aggressive campaign, leveraging social media. Perry is web2.0, KBH is old-style. She hasnt had a tough race since 1993.

Dem crossover moderates could cut the margin. If I were KBH, I'd be calling Dem primary voters. But if she curries those votes, she loses the conservatives; End of day, Perry wins.

A lot of idiots are bashing Perry missing the big ...

2009-07-15T18:53:51.739-04:00

A lot of idiots are bashing Perry missing the big Texas picture:
1. Texas has had one of the best economic performances of the 50 states in the last 5 years. Perry is running on his good economic record.
2. Perry has not advocated secession but states rights, a position that 70% of Texans agree with. Everytime a lib brings it up in faux outrage it HELPS Perry.
3. Perry crushed in 2002 over Sanchez. Perry dug himself a hole over TTC, thats why he ran weak in 2006 (but still won), but has been digging himself out of it.
4. Every time a liberal says "Hutchison is not as bad as Perry" it costs her more votes in the GOP primary. Texas Republicans vote conservative, if Perry is the more conservative candidate, he wins, end of story.
5. van de Putte bowed out of the Gov race, means the Dems dont have a high-profile candidate. Basically Dems are throwing in the towel on the Govs race and will put their chips on the Senate race. They will lose there too.
The Obama/Dem agenda of energy taxes, mandates/taxes on healthcare, and trillion dollar deficits will be an anchor around their necks.
PS. To the folks using "clown", "moron", "idiot" etc.: Insulting the best state in the union and the good people of Texas along with stupid insults about Perry, Republicans, conservatives, etc. really only shows that liberals are vicious haters. Well done. Texas will re-elect Perry JUST TO ANNOY YOU.

AS for Hutchinson v. Perry -- who cares? Texas R...

2009-07-15T11:25:07.263-04:00

AS for Hutchinson v. Perry -- who cares?

Texas Republicans are like vicious plague rats that just won't stay home and gnaw on each other, they have to spread out and infect the rest of America.

Talking about Hutchinson, the right-wing corporate whore, who has received MORE money from the Oil & Gas lobby than any other politician in America, as if she were a creditable human being is laughable.

You Texans seem to be adept at parsing invisible signs of "moderation" as a reason to vote for someone who's basically an extreme right-wing corporate shill with a meaningless "moderate" veneer that only makes her more dangerous.

We're MUCH better off with Perry! He's such a total clown that the chances of him ever becoming a national figure are ZILCH -- which is all to the good.

Keep your zombie Republican morons down there in Texas. Your state has already done more than enough damage to the rest of the world for any one century with the two Bushes! Do us all a favor and vote for Perry if you can't elect anyone decent!

Texas is an open-primary state, and Governor Goodh...

2009-07-15T04:54:51.939-04:00

Texas is an open-primary state, and Governor Goodhair is deeply despised by Democrats. Many of us will be crossing over to vote for KBH in the primary just to boot his sorry ass back to the sinecure he's so carefully constructed at Texas A&M.

Too bad, Aggies; it's a shame that a once-respectable institution will have to cope with his stupidity, but you'll have to be sacrificed for the good of the state as a whole. There is some poetic justice here: you granted him a degree and appeared to like him just fine when he was a Yell Leader.

Take him back with our blessings.

while it may be true that the Governor of Texas is...

2009-07-15T01:18:45.437-04:00

while it may be true that the Governor of Texas is more ceremonial than other executives, history has shown what a competent leader can do. As a Texan living abroad (Alabama that is) I know of what I write. Ann Richards was one of the greatest governors in the history of the state. The success of Texas under her leadership was only equaled by the utter failure of her successors. After more than a decade of Prince George followed by Governor Goodhair, Texas has fallen to Alabamian stature. KBH has proven herself to be a skilled legislator and shrewd politician. She understands the strengths and weaknesses of the position. Perhaps she is looking for a retirement job or a springboard to the White House. I think she is a proud Texan who wants to help the greatest state in the union return to her days of glory. At least she couldn't do any worse than Prettyboy Perry. Hook 'em.

A retirement job or stepping stone to a Presidenti...

2009-07-14T19:28:08.385-04:00

A retirement job or stepping stone to a Presidential ticket.

A fool could be the Governor of Texas (a Ceremonial position) and has been.

Budget wise Texas has one of the weakest Governors...

2009-07-14T19:12:35.117-04:00

Budget wise Texas has one of the weakest Governors in the country. It is one of the few, if not only state, where the legislature also prepares a budget. Something like duel-budgeting as opposed to an executive budget model.

My understanding on the democratic side is John Sharp and Bill White are the two current hopefulls. Which could make for a competitive primary.

I would like to give a Plug for Bill White. He was a great Mayor of Houston and would still be Mayor if he weren't term-limited out.

Yet another Texan's view: Perry is not popular he...

2009-07-14T16:27:17.519-04:00

Yet another Texan's view:

Perry is not popular here except with the true wing nuts. While he
is pandering to them with his talk
of secession and tea bagging, he is
lining up a 1/2 million dollar a
year job at Texas A&M if he does
get the boot (he appointed cronies
as regents and system chancellor
who can then appoint him at TAMU
president.)

KBH may not be much more liberal
but she seems to be less self
absorbed and self serving than
Perry.

I find the trends interesting for one main reason:...

2009-07-14T16:04:41.814-04:00

I find the trends interesting for one main reason: Perry is everywhere on the map, but it's KBH who's steadily declining and losing points.

BUT look at the numbers. Tough to correlate a move from KBH to Perry. Rather, votes are moving from KBH to undecided.

Which means two things: A) these votes are moderate Repubs who can probably be brought back into the fold once her campaign picks up or B)we've got a Kinky/Strayhorn third party candidate who will suck the fervor out of this middle ground in the primary and the general.

If B happens, we're stuck with Perry again, because we've got two sects down here: Perry and anti-Perry.

While it's true that anyone is better than Perry, ...

2009-07-14T15:09:22.276-04:00

While it's true that anyone is better than Perry, I'm really excited about Hutchison's campaign. Her ideas strike me as fresh--something that's been missing in the governor's mansion for about ten years.

Count me as another Texan who would vote for Hutch...

2009-07-14T13:46:34.807-04:00

Count me as another Texan who would vote for Hutchison over Perry. I voted for Strayhorn in 2006.

Speaking of Governors (or soon to be former Govern...

2009-07-14T12:33:06.705-04:00

Speaking of Governors (or soon to be former Governors), SarahPac raised $730,000 in funds to date. Have you guys been clicking the ads on this site? Traitors.

All kidding aside, with the Republican party imploding upon itself in plummeting poll numbers, hypocrisy drenched sex scandals, and lack of clear vision, I've continually thought that the time is ripe for a new party. Wonder if Palin is purposely thinking of leading this charge or if she is just acting in her own self interests and being portrayed as the reluctant messiah?

Obviously I think some variation of the latter is the case but conservatives have often proved in the past that perception is 90% of reality. I shudder to think.

I also agree. I think people from outside the stat...

2009-07-14T11:42:03.744-04:00

I also agree. I think people from outside the state don't get just how unpopular Rick Perry is. I'd vote for Kay Bailey just to register my displeasure with him.

That having been said, I wish the Democrats could find someone personable to run.

Erratum—“Lady Kay will be well into her seventies ...

2009-07-14T11:39:15.856-04:00

Erratum—“Lady Kay will be well into her seventies in 2016…”