Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: [UPDATED] On First Day of Recount, Franken Gains N...

酒店經紀人, 菲梵酒店經紀, 酒店經紀, 禮服酒店上班, 酒店小姐兼職, 便服酒店經紀, ...

2009-10-02T05:36:11.149-04:00

酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店經紀,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店工作,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
菲
梵,

艾葳酒店經紀公司提供專業的酒店經紀, 飯局小姐,領檯人員,領台,傳播妹,或者想要到台北酒店、林森北路...

2009-08-28T02:50:48.311-04:00

艾葳酒店經紀公司提供專業的酒店經紀, 飯局小姐,領檯人員,領台,傳播妹,或者想要到台北酒店、林森北路酒店,私人招待所,或者八大行業當酒店PT,酒店公關,酒店兼職,想去酒店上班, 日式酒店,制服酒店,ktv酒店,禮服店,整天穿得水水漂漂的禮服酒店,鋼琴酒吧當酒店領檯,酒店小姐,公關小姐??,還是想去制服店當上班小姐,水水們如果想要擁有打工工作、晚上兼差工作、兼差打工、假日兼職、兼職工作、學生兼差、兼差、打工兼差、日領工作、晚上兼差工作、酒店工作、酒店上班、酒店打工、兼職、兼差、兼差工作、酒店上班等,想了解酒店相關工作和特種行業內容,想找打工、假日兼職、兼差打工、或晚班兼職想擁有快速賺錢又有保障的工作嗎???又可以現領請找專業又有保障的艾葳酒店經紀公司!

艾葳酒店經紀是合法的公司工作環境高雅時尚，無業績壓力，無脫秀無喝酒壓力，高層次會員制客源，工作輕鬆，可日領、現領。
一般的酒店經紀只會在水水們第一次上班和領薪水時出現而已，對水水們的上班安全一點保障都沒有！艾葳酒店經紀公司的水水們上班時全程媽咪作陪，不需擔心！只提供最優質的酒店打工,酒店上班,酒店打工環境、上班條件給水水們。

水水們妳有缺現金、有卡債、缺錢卡奴的煩腦嗎?想到日本留學日本打工嗎?妳是工讀生找工作??想要擁有高時薪又輕鬆的夜間兼職工作,打工機會和,假日打工,兼職工作日領假日打工的機會嗎??想實現夢想卻又缺錢沒錢嗎!??整天還在煩腦如何賺錢有什麼賺錢方法,和賺錢最快方法!?,想要打工,日領工作,短期打工,兼差工作,打工兼差工作嗎!?,
請加入我們艾葳酒店經紀公司工作單純輕鬆”高時薪”又可日領徵想要當傳播妹,上班小姐,酒店兼差,酒店兼職,歡迎學生打工,!!!
加入我們實現夢想就從現在開始^__^

キャッシングインプラントダンボール水　通販

2009-07-22T03:56:31.061-04:00

キャッシング
インプラント
ダンボール
水　通販

外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇 ...

2009-04-16T04:32:00.000-04:00

a片,成人網站,美女交友,美女視訊,a片,成人網站,美女交友,美女視訊,a片,成人網站,美女交友,美...

2009-03-23T05:27:00.000-04:00

^^ very nice 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社, 徵...

2009-03-12T22:08:00.001-04:00

^^ nice blog!! ^@^徵信, 徵信網, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵...

2009-03-12T22:08:00.000-04:00

成人網站,成人影片,av女優,h漫,成人網站,成人電影,a片,色情,成人影片,色情,成人電影,色情,...

2009-02-26T12:12:00.000-05:00

成人網站,成人影片,av女優,h漫,成人網站,成人電影,a片,色情,成人影片,色情,成人電影,色情,h漫,成人影片,成人電影,免費A片,色情,成人電影,成人影片,免費A片,色情,成人網站,免費A片,成人網站,色情,a片,成人影片,情色,免費A片,微風成人,情色,成人影片,微風成人,av女優,

成人網站,成人網站,成人網站,成人網站,色情網站,色情網站,色情網站,色情網站,av女優,av女優,av女優,av女優,色情,色情,色情,色情,h漫,h漫,h漫,h漫,sex,sex,sex,sex,成人影片,成人影片,成人影片,成人影片,成人電影,成人電影,成人電影,成人電影,av女優,a片,a片,a片,a片,成人網站,成人網站,成人網站,成人網站,成人影片,成人影片,成人影片,成人影片,av女優,av女優,

av女優,av女優,色情,色情,色情,色情,h漫,h漫,h漫,h漫,sex,sex,sex,sex,情色,情色,情色,情色,a片,a片,a片,a片,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,成人網站,成人網站,成人網站,成人網站,成人影片,成人影片,成人影片,成人影片,av女優,av女優,av女優,av女優,色情,色情,色情,

色情,h漫,h漫,h漫,h漫,sex,sex,sex,sex,情色,情色,情色,情色,辣妹視訊,辣妹視訊,辣妹視訊,辣妹視訊,080視訊聊天室,080視訊聊天室,080視訊聊天室,080視訊聊天室,美女交友,美女交友,

美女交友,美女交友,情色視訊,情色視訊,情色視訊,情色視訊,哈啦聊天室,哈啦聊天室,哈啦聊天室,哈啦聊天室,ut聊天室,ut聊天室,ut聊天室,ut聊天室,聊天室,聊天室,聊天室

情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,...

2009-02-08T21:25:00.000-05:00

short story: dcweatherboy has it right. there are...

2008-11-20T18:38:00.000-05:00

short story: dcweatherboy has it right. there are two many unknowns to be confident in any prediction.

longer story: the numbers are sufficiently confusing to make my head hurt. hopefully the following summary is useful (from Star Trib numbers posted this morning)

Changes not attributable to challenges
Coleman 37
Franken 101
Total 138

Challenges by Coleman 146
Challenges by Franken 123
Total 269

Total change
Coleman 160
Franken 247
Total 407

what these numbers do tell us is that uncontested change is 1/3 of the total, and 2/3 of the change that has occurred is due to challenges. probable prediction #1: the recount itself will not resolve the election. it will be the resolution of the challenges that does that.

my understanding is that challenges are basically a free good. "Frivolous" would mean no chance whatsoever from the standpoint of either campaign. In pure economic terms, as a rep of either campaign, I ought to challenge any ballot that has even a 1% chance of being overturned. The problem with that approach is that it the challenger is likely to lose credibility.

Who knows what the optimal strategy is? The review board will know the incentive is to be aggressive with challenges, so the board is likely to have a somewhat skeptical posture. From the challenger's perspective, one's expectation going in is prevailing on less than 50%. A good outcome would be prevailing on less than half, and picking up some you don't expect to.

From this, it is possible to speculate (although some knowledge of how these review meetings go would help). As a general strategy, the challenger would want a mix of credible reasoned challenges, less credible ones that can leverage the credible ones, and then maybe some longshots (say in the 25% range) sounds about right.

There is also media strategy both before and after. As the leader, the Coleman campaign has a stronger incentive to reinforce the impression that Coleman continues to lead. Given how close this thing is, part of the argument to the review board will be to tread lightly and not reverse the results of the recount, while downplaying how much the results have been affected by the use of challenges. to put it another way, the Coleman campaign would have reason to adopt a more aggressive strategy than the Franken campaign, and both would be expected to use an aggressive, rather than limited challenge strategy.

Frankin is now leading at a rate of 2.83 votes per...

2008-11-20T17:38:00.000-05:00

Frankin is now leading at a rate of 2.83 votes per 1 pecentage of votes counted. If he continues at this pace, Franklin will have a net of 283 votes and will win. This is before any challenged votes are counted or absentee votes that are in dispute.
Hope it holds. Looks good.

I know you guys would like to predict out who wins...

2008-11-20T16:56:00.000-05:00

I know you guys would like to predict out who wins but let's admit it. No one knows at this point :) It's too close

Looks as though someone already did what I just as...

2008-11-20T16:38:00.000-05:00

Looks as though someone already did what I just asked, but I'm too statistically illiterate to know whether those formulae take into account the fact that the challenges are likely total garbage.

Steve, what of it? What do Franken's chances look like if we assume the challenges will yield a negligible net change (and therefore that Franken is actually within 99, rather than 159, votes)?

Nate,I'm sure I'm not the first to wonder whether ...

2008-11-20T16:34:00.000-05:00

Nate,

I'm sure I'm not the first to wonder whether Coleman's purpose in challenging ballots (60 more than Franken as of 4:20 p.m. EDT) is intended to retain an artificially inflated de facto lead as long as possible, in the spirit of the "possession is nine-tenths of the law" principle, in the event of a favorable court ruling or other bizarre special-teams play down the line.

(That was sort of convoluted, but I think you got it.)

As of this comment, Coleman leads by 159 ballots with 30 percent of precincts and 22 percent of votes counted (unless I've got that backwards). If you remove all challenges, eliminating Coleman's consequent net gain of 60 votes, Franken is actually within 99 votes. Having closed the gap by nearly 60 percent already, Franken would seem well positioned to overtake Coleman.

In light of the now-widely-circulated claim that most challenges on both sides of the recount are frivolous, do you think you might be able to jury-rig a magical formula for intelligently guessing the number of such challenges actually likely to bear fruit? Or are there too many variables?

The notion in my ocean is that Coleman is desperately trying to preserve doubt. Would you mind setting your number-cruncher on a path of doubt-destruction?

Assume that Coleman says "Hey, that vote that was ...

2008-11-20T16:33:00.000-05:00

Assume that Coleman says "Hey, that vote that was counted for Franken... that really shouldn't be counted for anyone." In this case, the number of Coleman ballot challenges goes up by one, and the number of votes for Franken in the recount goes down by one.

But assume that Coleman says "Hey, that vote that wasn't counted for anyone... that really should be counted as a vote for me." In this case, the number of Coleman ballot challenges goes up by one, but the number of votes for Coleman in the recount does not go up by one?

Why would they presuppose that the challenge will be successful, in its effect on the recount totals, in the first case but not in the second?

For the sake of being able to evaluate how Franken is doing, I'll continue to assume that all of the ballot challenges are of the type that question a previously-recorded vote for the opponent -- and that 25% of these challenges will be upheld. (Not that I believe that this is accurate - I just find these assumptions more likely to be true than the Star Tribune's assumptions). If correct, Franken has already gained 161 votes on Coleman (115 "actual" votes gained through the recount process, and a projected 46 more to be gained after the canvassing board makes all of their evaluations).

Go Al!

Steve,Don't forget about the challenged ballots. ...

2008-11-20T16:27:00.000-05:00

Steve,

Don't forget about the challenged ballots. Coleman is challenging a lot more than Franken, and some say many of his challenges are frivolous. This is probably strategic on his part, and it's skewing the results so far.

A squeaker Franken projected to lose by 38 votes ...

2008-11-20T16:25:00.000-05:00

A squeaker Franken projected to lose by 38 votes

Total Already counted Uncounted
421,756 2,001,078
Odds of any change 0.051% 1,236 1,021
Odds of a net change due to recount 0.041% 994 821
Franken % of net change 58.4% 580 479
Coleman % of net change 41.6% 414 342
Franken vote 166 137
Current Franken deficit 175
Estimated Franken margin of loss -38

I probably made this more difficult than it needed to be, but here goes. I also don't know if my table will display correctly. I downloaded the Star Tribune’s numbers from yesterday. Given those results the odds of any change – either an addition or subtraction-is .055% (a change of 5.5 votes per 10,000 ballots cast).
One of the earlier posts points out that there is a known issue with a particular type of machine. I excluded the St. Louis county results on that basis, which reduces the estimated rate of change to .051%.

However, since there are changes in both directions, I based the net change for either candidate on the results. With St. Louis excluded, Coleman had a net of –87; Franken a net of –69. The net change is 20% lower than the estimate of any change.

Of the net change, Franken pulled 55.8% vs carrying 47.7% of the vote counted. Franken did better for the uncounted vote, carrying 50.3%. I gave Franken the same margin.

Carrying that out with the uncounted vote, Franken picks up 138 votes vs. a current deficit of 175. This estimate is very sensitive to assumptions, and the likelihood of any vote change varies widely between counties. The exclusion of St. Louis in total is extreme where yesterday’s count gave Franken +23 vs. +1 for Coleman. That lowered Franken’s ratio from 65% to 55%. The election is tied at a ratio of 60.7%.

The Coleman campaign has increased the rate of the...

2008-11-20T15:18:00.000-05:00

The Coleman campaign has increased the rate of their challenges, but most of the increase seems to be coming from Hennepin County. Maybe Coleman's people got worried about what they were seeing in Hennepin?

OleEmmy said... "If there is an exact tie, the win...

2008-11-20T15:04:00.000-05:00

OleEmmy said... "If there is an exact tie, the winner is chosen by "lots." That could be a coin toss, drawing a card from a deck, or drawing straws. Its in the MN constitution."
Can we have a robed priest call upon the Urim and Thummim?
I'd love to see Franken win this on a coin-toss, just so I can twit the Republicans with how obviously this was "God's will", but it would be even better if we could have a ceremony with a lot of "thypedu" (theistic hype, mon Dieu!)

@dcweatherboy, It depends what the challenges are ...

2008-11-20T14:50:00.000-05:00

@dcweatherboy,

It depends what the challenges are for. Is Coleman challenging the validity of ballots that had previously been counted for Franken? Or, is he challenging the failure to include ballots for him that had previously not been counted? The more of the former type of Coleman challenges, the better for Franken. The more of the latter, the better for Coleman. Without knowing more about the challenges, I don't think we can definitively say.

wv: rufert, the name of the new dog Obama promised his girls.

So it went to 156. 21% in.It looks like Coleman h...

2008-11-20T14:43:00.000-05:00

So it went to 156. 21% in.
It looks like Coleman has challenged 210 and Franken has challenged 143. I guess this is good since Franken has challenged 1/3 less than Coleman according to what Nate said. Does this make sense? Let me know! I am curious if I have this right!

http://www.startribune.com/politics/national/senate/

I assume many of the challenges will ultimately go...

2008-11-20T14:13:00.000-05:00

I assume many of the challenges will ultimately go against the challenger (many objections seem a stretch). That should be good news for Franken, because Coleman's people are challenging a lot of votes in St. Louis County, which would have narrowed the overall gap considerably.

Nice to see Minnesota values voter intent. Good on ya!

BTW, thanks Don et al for the updated total. This is more addictive than March Madness!

down to 168 now (before noon Thursday)

2008-11-20T13:14:00.000-05:00

down to 168 now (before noon Thursday)

Squirrel -Assumptions are, of course, the source o...

2008-11-20T09:54:00.000-05:00

Squirrel -

Assumptions are, of course, the source of inaccuracies in these projections. And all assumptions are, by definition, not true. But we are forced to make assumptions one way or the other, no matter how tough or treacherous it may be to do so, to make any guess as to the meaning of the data that have come in so far. If we quote the counts as listed in the Star Tribune, we are implicitly assuming that every challenged ballot will be thrown out. I find this assumption to be no more legitimate than the assumption that they will all be reinstated - or that 25% of them will be reinstated. And it is interesting to see the great impact that varying these assumptions has on our interpretation of the data.

wish the same principles had been applied in 2000 ...

2008-11-20T09:30:00.000-05:00

wish the same principles had been applied in 2000 in Florida already to prevent the humiliation of democracy advocates around the globe and to spare us the last eight years of incompetence and bigotry!

samule,

Don't offer your skewed and twisted opinion based on the bullshit fed to you with a liberal, spiteful spoon.

This country is the beacon of freedom and democracy around the globe, and while she isn't perfect, there's nothing that happened here that was a "humiliation" for "democracy advocates" around the globe.

Since the beginning of the 20th century, pretty much the rest of the world has been humiliating to watch on behalf of the United States. Europe and the rest of the Eastern Hemisphere came completely unglued - TWICE! - before the first half of the century with millions of people murdered, tortured, and excoriated.

And the second half of the century was only slightly better but with millions upon millions still under the oppression of the old Soviet Union and other authoritarian and totalitarian factions.

All the while, both then and now, the United States was and still is the gold standard for liberty and democracy. Don't you ever get on your high horse about how the United States has ever been a humiliation for democracy until we come even remotely close to causing even 1/10th of the pain, misery, and sadness that the rest of the world has caused through its misguided and sickening affront to basic human rights and freedoms.

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: [UPDATED] On First Day of Recount, Franken Gains N...

酒店經紀人, 菲梵酒店經紀, 酒店經紀, 禮服酒店上班, 酒店小姐兼職, 便服酒店經紀, ...

艾葳酒店經紀公司提供專業的酒店經紀, 飯局小姐,領檯人員,領台,傳播妹,或者想要到台北酒店、林森北路...

キャッシング インプラント ダンボール 水 通販

外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇 外遇 外遇 外遇外遇 外遇 外遇 外遇 外遇 外遇 ...

a片,成人網站,美女交友,美女視訊,a片,成人網站,美女交友,美女視訊,a片,成人網站,美女交友,美...

^^ very nice 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社, 徵...

^^ nice blog!! ^@^徵信, 徵信網, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵...

成人網站,成人影片,av女優,h漫,成人網站,成人電影,a片,色情,成人影片,色情,成人電影,色情,...

情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,...

short story: dcweatherboy has it right. there are...

Frankin is now leading at a rate of 2.83 votes per...

I know you guys would like to predict out who wins...

Looks as though someone already did what I just as...

Nate,I'm sure I'm not the first to wonder whether ...

Assume that Coleman says "Hey, that vote that was ...

Steve,Don't forget about the challenged ballots. ...

A squeaker Franken projected to lose by 38 votes ...

The Coleman campaign has increased the rate of the...

OleEmmy said... "If there is an exact tie, the win...

@dcweatherboy, It depends what the challenges are ...

So it went to 156. 21% in.It looks like Coleman h...

I assume many of the challenges will ultimately go...

down to 168 now (before noon Thursday)

Squirrel -Assumptions are, of course, the source o...

wish the same principles had been applied in 2000 ...

キャッシングインプラントダンボール水　通販

外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇 ...