Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Senate Polling Update, 9/20

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2009-07-23T02:21:10.567-04:00

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2009-03-12T02:03:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-12T02:03:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-09T00:34:00.000-05:00

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2009-01-19T08:46:00.000-05:00

Please return to updating senate races at least on...

2008-09-26T15:29:00.000-04:00

Please return to updating senate races at least once a week; I know you're busy, but there's interesting polling out in all the competitive ones, and even the Bluegrass appears to have taken a turn for the bluer, and I want to know how big that turn is from your model's PoV.

thansk for the great work you do!

1. PPP is a dependable pollster, and probably the...

2008-09-23T08:28:00.000-04:00

1. PPP is a dependable pollster, and probably the best pollster for NC. Their record on the primary is unassailable - they called every race, down to Auditor, various Secretaries, etc. I would go with their numbers over anyone's.

2. PPP and Civitas (another NC group, a Republican firm) do the best job of breaking out their internals by region. PPP gives area code, Civitas breaks down 5-6 regions. SUSA gives 3 (too few, too indescript). Both pollsters also offer more interesting internals about voter makeup - population types (small town, urban, rural, suburban); voting behaviors (early voting v. election day); these provide additional insights beyond race, gender, age that give credence to their numbers. Both also poll for Barr - a larger factor in NC than perhaps some other states.

3. I live in NC. I've studied the voting patterns from an academic perspective and know the state experientially. It's a Dem year.

4. The registration numbers on the NC State Board of Elections website are updated regularly (monthly, I think). Once early voting starts, you can also find that info there. NC is a state that has to keep very explicit voting data from Voting Rights Act legacy. The website is good, and part of how I know #3 above.

5. Historically, NC voters are ticket-splitters. Hagan's fate and Obama's are not as linked as two Dem candidates might be in another state. I do think, however, that both will win. I think the more likely trade-off this year will be the election of a Republican governor in a state that's had Dem govs for the past 16 years (and has only had 3 Rep govs since 1900).

6. Nate needs to factor in the recent NC polling - esp. the new PPP - and shift NC to the "tilts GOP" column. Hagan's odds are better than he gives her. :-)

The Arkansas entry needs to be fixed. The republic...

2008-09-22T23:15:00.000-04:00

The Arkansas entry needs to be fixed. The republican candidate should be blank rather than TBD. There are no Republicans on the ballot for US Senate, only a Democrat and a Green.

Great blog!!!

2008-09-22T16:51:00.000-04:00

Great blog!!!

The key thresholds for the Senate are at 50 (if yo...

2008-09-21T19:37:00.000-04:00

The key thresholds for the Senate are at 50 (if you have the Vice President on your side) 51 (if you don't), and 60 (which is enough to stop a filibuster). However, 55 is also an important number, because it means the committee ratios change.

The Senate allocates seats on Committees in the proportion they are in the Senate as a whole. Most committees have 20 members, meaning right now the seats are split 11-9 in favor of the Democrats.

However, if the Democrats get up to 55 seats (probably excluding Lieberman), they will be traditionally entitled to change that ratio to 12-8.

This is a huge difference as a practical matter, because it will no longer possible for the Republicans to peel off a single Democrat on a Committee to help them block legislation. It will make party discipline among the Democrats much easier, because individual Democratic senators will be able to take a "pass" on this issue or that (voting against their party in Committee), but with the Democrats still prevailing.

The Dems may or may not kick Lieberman out the cau...

2008-09-21T16:08:00.000-04:00

The Dems may or may not kick Lieberman out the caucus, but they will take his committee and sub-committee chairmanships from him.

It's not so much that he has endorsed Mcain. Actually appearaing and speaking at the Republican convention will be the reason.

We need to win MS-B(Musgrove) and either ME(Allen)...

2008-09-21T13:46:00.000-04:00

We need to win MS-B(Musgrove) and either ME(Allen),KY(Lunsford) before telling Lieberman(CT) to go Cheney himself.

We won't tell Lieberman to go Cheney himself no matter how many seats we pick up. 60 Senators is only important for winning cloture votes. Each cloture vote will be unique. We cannot count on every Democratic Senator going with the party on every vote, so every extra vote we can get may be important. And that means we will not kick Lieberman out of the caucus as long as he generally supports us (which except for foreign issues, he generally does). Besides, he's friends with many Democratic Senators and the good ol boys network will stick together.

Barr lost the the first round in his fight but the...

2008-09-21T13:38:00.000-04:00

Barr lost the the first round in his fight but the case was not thrown out of court.

There is absolutely NO WAY the courts will take McCain and Obama off the ballot. The Texas Supreme Court is Republican controlled and taking both off the ballot will hurt McCain. Besides being a weak legal argument and totally contrary to any sense of equity, the politics of the situation guarantee Barr loses this suit.

Anyone care to place odds on Stevens guilt or inno...

2008-09-21T13:34:00.000-04:00

Anyone care to place odds on Stevens guilt or innocence when the trial is completed?

My WAG is 3-1 in favor of conviction. DOJ has a great record of getting convictions and a DC jury will not be sympathetic to Stevens. OTOH, he won't be lacking for the best lawyering that money can buy.

If Stevens is innocent, I think he will get by and...

2008-09-21T13:10:00.000-04:00

If Stevens is innocent, I think he will get by and that'll provide a small bump to the GOP as the biggest perceived crooks in Congress after that are Rangel and Jefferson.

The difference between Stevens (Rangel and Jefferson) is Rangel and Jefferson represent heavily safe Democratic Districts- 85% Democratic. They don't have a serious Republican opponents. Rangel and Jefferson can hold on to their seats until expulsion.

Stevens is facing a strong top tier Democratic challenger- Mark Begich is a popular mayor of a big city- Anchorage. He is a son of a popular Democratic Congressman.

Nate - I think your Senate tracker should now be o...

2008-09-21T11:43:00.000-04:00

Nate - I think your Senate tracker should now be over 56.

As for a early post saying Ted Stevens' guilt or innocence would be decided before the election, I think the opposite will happen. At some point next month the trial will get continued "by stipulation." The last thing Stevens wants is a trial before the election, no matter what anyone may have said.

If that N.C. PPP poll is even close to accurate, i...

2008-09-21T03:42:00.000-04:00

If that N.C. PPP poll is even close to accurate, it spells trouble for McCain in Virginia. No way that N,C. is that close without Obama leading in Virginia.

Sam, you're certainly entitled to your opinion, bu...

2008-09-21T02:39:00.000-04:00

Sam, you're certainly entitled to your opinion, but Nate has at least explained (in detail) his methodology. How did you come to find "Nate's win percentage [is] not even close to neutral"? Would you explain your methodology?

Again I find Nate's win percentage not even close ...

2008-09-20T23:58:00.000-04:00

Again I find Nate's win percentage not even close to neutral. Their is more volatility within that statistic than the stock market right now.

I've moved to DC recently, and people here really ...

2008-09-20T23:27:00.000-04:00

I've moved to DC recently, and people here really are hopefully for statehood and 2 senators. I'm not sure what cloture rules would be, but if the Democrats get 59 seats, two more would be 61 out of 102 or 60%. Think it could happen?

Watch Mississippi very closely. Musgrove could be...

2008-09-20T23:01:00.000-04:00

Watch Mississippi very closely. Musgrove could be poised to win.

If you look at the cross-tabs of the latest poll (from R2K), while only four percent of whites (Wicker's base) are undecided, 18 percent of blacks (Musgrove's base) are undecide). If three things happen, Musgrove will pull ofh a shocking upset:

(1) He holds onto the 23/24% of the white vote he already has;

(2) He's up 75-7 with the black vote today, he needs the remaining undecideds to break the same way so he can claim 91% of blacks; and

(3) hope black turnout hits 39%+. Blacks make up 37% of the state. If turnout goes to 39%, and Musgrove holds those numbers, he will win. The math is there.

This race is extremely winnable and close, which is why Barbour is trying every dirty trick possible to win.

Hey! wait a minute...

2008-09-20T22:49:00.000-04:00

Hey! wait a minute...

Of all the polls taken within the week leading up...

2008-09-20T22:48:00.000-04:00

Of all the polls taken within the week leading up to the NC Dem primary it appears PPP did pretty well:

ACTUAL: O - 14.7%

Zogby: O - 14.0%
PPP: O - 10.0%
Ras: O - 9.0%
R2K: O - 7.0%
Mason: O - 7.0%
SurUSA: O - 5.0%
InsAdv: O - 4.0%

Thank you Jen. Woohoo!

2008-09-20T22:47:00.000-04:00

Thank you Jen. Woohoo!

Tom, Would just like to thank you for the transpar...

2008-09-20T22:42:00.000-04:00

Tom,

Would just like to thank you for the transparency in your polls. I appreciate any pollster who shows their work.

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Senate Polling Update, 9/20

キャッシング インプラント クレジットカード 現金化

^^ very nice 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社, 徵...

^^ nice blog!! ^@^徵信, 徵信網, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵...

徵信社, 感情挽回, 挽回感情, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 捉姦, 徵信公司, ...

情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,...

Please return to updating senate races at least on...

1. PPP is a dependable pollster, and probably the...

The Arkansas entry needs to be fixed. The republic...

Great blog!!!

The key thresholds for the Senate are at 50 (if yo...

The Dems may or may not kick Lieberman out the cau...

We need to win MS-B(Musgrove) and either ME(Allen)...

Barr lost the the first round in his fight but the...

Anyone care to place odds on Stevens guilt or inno...

If Stevens is innocent, I think he will get by and...

Nate - I think your Senate tracker should now be o...

If that N.C. PPP poll is even close to accurate, i...

Sam, you're certainly entitled to your opinion, bu...

Again I find Nate's win percentage not even close ...

I've moved to DC recently, and people here really ...

Watch Mississippi very closely. Musgrove could be...

Hey! wait a minute...

Of all the polls taken within the week leading up...

Thank you Jen. Woohoo!

Tom, Would just like to thank you for the transpar...

キャッシングインプラントクレジットカード　現金化