Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Bennet, Denver Schools Chief, Reportedly Chosen as...

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2009-03-28T05:19:00.000-04:00

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2009-01-16T04:46:00.000-05:00

I find some of these posts interesting. First, I a...

2009-01-03T20:55:00.000-05:00

I find some of these posts interesting. First, I am not going to pretend to be an expert on another state's politics.

I think an R will have a difficult time winning in IL, NY, or CO.

Thanks to the previous IL gov, I don't really think the GOP is necessarily having an advantage in terms of no corruption. The gov office in that state has had problems in general. And look at Reps Foster and Bean toppling incumbents. Oh sorry Foster just took Hastert's place in retirement. The state has been going blue. In the tank for the big O.

A GOP senator in NY? Not likely. Maybe have Al D Amato run again? Just kidding.

But I LIVE in Colorado. So really that's my home. Bennet? Wow what a weird choice. I used to teach in Denver schools, so I've met the guy. Met him at the DNC convention also. Seems very practical and OK. Really Owens kept winning because he was the incumbent, and barely won the first time. CO governors generally keep winning reelection. But I don't know about our present governor's prospects. But the governor of Colorado is a No-win job as you will see. I do not know if he would win again in another office. In sample Senate polls, he was found loosing to Salazar (John) or Hickenlooper (who've I've also met.)

But realistically, please realize that this state is gone nearly completely blue. Not Mass or Hawaii, but going that way, A prominent GOP type in Colorado told my best friend, a hardcore conservative himself, that CO is "blue as the sky." The state GOP is a mess, and dominated by the hardcore christian right. Many so called out of state political experts don't realize this yet even. The liberal base in Denver/Boulder is growing in the suburbs too. This base is now dominating the state voting.

Colorado Springs is still very conservative, but actually Obama got quite a few votes even there to help him. But the Springs is not large at all compared to Denver. The last time the GOP dominated the state legislature it was awful - dominated by cultural conservatives that debated god, guns, and gays and did little else. Schaffer was a throwaway candidate that ran a terrible campaign. It was run by Dick Wadhams, who also ran George Allen's campaign for Senate. Apparently he is still around, and no doubt the state Dems like that one, after seeing the Schaffer debacle.

But please, we don't know if Bennet will run again in 10. People seem to keep assuming that. WHY? Sure in 10 the seat will be competitive, after all this isn't Mass or Hawaii. But I would put money on the Dem. I absolutely do not think Owens would be a shoe in for 10 at all, or Elway for that matter. As I said Owens and Elway were loosing in sample polls against J Salazar and Hick, and even Romanoff (I think). Elway loosing is not surprising. He is just an ultra wealthy football player. Most people I think are happy thinking of him being a retired football player, not legislating while pretending to be an average Joe. He is just a CELEBRITY. Nothing more. I don't think he would fly to the Senate if he ran. Kind of like running Pete Coors. He was running for name effect. That's it.

People not in this state have NO idea of the political change that has taken root here. Conservative gun toting ranchers are a tiny minority. The GOP is so stunned they do not know what to do. Colorado is a paradox. Lots of wealthy, well educated whites folks. Yet, higher education is a mess, and child poverty is growing at like the HIGHEST rate in the country. There are no services for the disabled almost at all. The GOP in CO couldn't care less about any of these things. People know this. Transportation funding has been a problem too. Colorado's state budget is in dire straights. We actually have constitutional amendments mandating INCREASES in K12 education spending along with spending/tax cuts everywhere else SIMULTANEOUSLY. The point is that the GOP has no concept of governing in this state. NONE! They are always on fire complaining about not being able to gut K12 education. Beauprez was crushed when he ran for Gov 4 years ago. They wouldn't know what to do if they had any power here, other than the obvious, cut taxes and hope for the best. The Dems are having a terrible time also, but at least they are trying to do something.

Hey Dubsy, his name is Bill Owens. That would be f...

2009-01-03T17:48:00.000-05:00

Hey Dubsy, his name is Bill Owens. That would be former governor Bill Owens. If he runs, he's an instant front-runner over Bennet. He's the only guy on the R bench who scares anyone. He would very tough to beat.

@Rich Rifkin:I don't think this is the time to be ...

2009-01-03T12:35:00.000-05:00

@Rich Rifkin:

I don't think this is the time to be a Deficit Hawk. Krugman argues that this is the time for the US government to invest in the economy, putting people to work and creating a "trickle-up" effect, if you will.

By the BTW, Social Security is fully funded through 2042. There will be plenty of time for us to deal with whatever fit hits the shan.

wv: obedicr: O, be a dic or, instead, just allow Burriss to take his lawful seat in the Senate.

Debating about which 50-60-year-old will be the de...

2009-01-03T11:34:00.000-05:00

Debating about which 50-60-year-old will be the democratic frontrunner in 8 years seems an exercise in futility.

It isn't fair, but I'm not convinced that woman candidates in their late 60's (Clinton, Sebellius) will have legitimate shots. Hilary was bitter (and clinging to superdelegates and "blue-collar white folks") because this was her moment. She knows her odds will never be so good again.

theuptake.com will provide live coverage of the co...

2009-01-03T02:48:00.000-05:00

theuptake.com will provide live coverage of the counting of 953 absentee ballots today (Saturday) at 9:00AM Central Time.

(Assuming the Minnesota Supreme Court doesn't stop the counting.)

Five years ago who ever heard of Obama?I'm sure so...

2009-01-03T02:18:00.000-05:00

Five years ago who ever heard of Obama?

I'm sure some Democratic meteors,now unknown, will be streaking across the political sky in a few years.And not all will burn out.

You call this a MILD surprise? I was pretty shocke...

2009-01-03T02:09:00.000-05:00

You call this a MILD surprise? I was pretty shocked myself. I don't know anything about this guy, so I can't say it's a horrible choice necessarily, but picking an unknown definitely makes it much more likely that we (as in, the Dems) will lose the seat in 2010. I think he probably should have went with Hickenlooper---although admittedly I don't know much about him either.

Also, to the person who was trying to list upcoming Democratic stars: No mention of Kathleen Sebelius??? She seems like one of the most obvious choices. There's also Janet Napolitano, Evan Bayh, Claire McCaskill, Tim Kaine, both Udalls, etc. And there's no maybe about Warner, he's definitely a big one. And if you're suggesting that that Warner is too conservative, I should mention that he's no more conservative than the other 2 people you mentioned (Webb and Schweitzer).

Mr."DIction"-At least spell Bennet's name right.

2009-01-03T01:56:00.000-05:00

Mr."DIction"-

At least spell Bennet's name right.

NATE: "(Bennett will) be liberal on social issues ...

2009-01-03T01:42:00.000-05:00

NATE: "(Bennett will) be liberal on social issues and the environment, but more moderate on fiscal policy (as his business background might imply)."

What does "more moderate on fiscal policy" mean these days? I can't see it means anything.

We have just finished two terms of a so-called conservative who not only massively increased every domestic spending program. He has spent $10 billion a month on a crazy war in Iraq for almost 6 years now with no cutbacks elsewhere to pay for it. He just got an additional $750 billion for his poorly conceived TARP program with no way to pay for that. And now we will usher into office in a few weeks a so-called liberal who wants to stimulate the economy with a trillion dollar pork barrell project.

In other words, nobody is a "fiscal moderate" anymore. The Republicans spent like drunken sailors for 8 years; and now it's the Democrats' turn. I cannot see Mr. Bennett or any other elected official stopping or even slowing down the spending train.

By 2016, when MediCare is bankrupt and Social Security is underfunded, the fit may hit the shan. I don't know where this all leads, but the collapse of the dollar and its disappearance as the world trading currency seems likely. That then means 20% interest rates and massive inflation here. Again, though, there are no "fiscal moderates." It's an extinct species.

...you are hereby sentenced...Geneva Conventions.....

2009-01-03T01:05:00.000-05:00

...you are hereby sentenced

...Geneva Conventions...trashed

How about a few years as a Democrat registered to vote in Utah?

What happened in Minnesota today is that they finished up the process of selecting absentee ballots that everyone could agree had been wrongly rejected. Both campaigns expect that when these ballots are counted Franken will still lead. I expect that the Minnesota Supreme Court will rebuff Coleman's latest petition on Saturday (I'll be the one eating crow if not) and that the State Canvassing Board will announce a result this weekend. I finally tracked down the relevant Minnesota statute regarding what happens next:

204C.40 CERTIFICATES OF ELECTION.

Subdivision 1. Preparation; method of delivery. ...the secretary of state shall prepare a certificate for every state and federal candidate declared elected by either a county canvassing board or the State Canvassing Board. Except as otherwise provided in this section, the secretary of state or county auditor, as appropriate, shall deliver an election certificate on demand to the elected candidate.... In an election for United States senator, the governor shall prepare an original certificate of election, countersigned by the secretary of state, and deliver it to the secretary of the United States Senate.... If a recount is undertaken by a canvassing board pursuant to section 204C.35, no certificate of election shall be prepared or delivered until after the recount is completed. In case of a contest, the court may invalidate and revoke the certificate as provided in chapter 209.

Subd. 2.Time of issuance; certain offices. No certificate of election shall be issued until seven days after the canvassing board has declared the result of the election. In case of a contest, an election certificate shall not be issued until a court of proper jurisdiction has finally determined the contest....

Opus 132 said... Robby,you are hereby sentenced to...

2009-01-03T00:41:00.000-05:00

Opus 132 said...
Robby,you are hereby sentenced to become a Republican!

I cannot stand by as the Geneva Conventions are trashed.

Robby,you are hereby sentenced to become a Republi...

2009-01-03T00:35:00.000-05:00

Robby,you are hereby sentenced to become a Republican!

I am here to humbly accept my serving of crow. Th...

2009-01-02T23:34:00.000-05:00

I am here to humbly accept my serving of crow. Thanks to Andre Smith's betrayal of my beloved Crimson Tide (in addition to a critical injury at LT), Utah is beating the tar out of Alabama, despite my arrogant predictions to the contrary.

Do with me what you will.

Unfortunately not,obsessed.As the Star Tribune rep...

2009-01-02T23:28:00.000-05:00

Unfortunately not,obsessed.

As the Star Tribune reports:

"As state officials prepare to count 953 disputed absentee ballots Saturday, the court is expected to decide soon whether to instead open the door to a new centralized review of about 2,000 such ballots, as requested by Sen. Norm Coleman -- or at least order the review of hundreds of additional ballots identified by the Coleman and Al Franken campaigns.

If the court refuses the Coleman request, an attorney for the GOP senator said Friday, he would likely lose the recount and immediately move to legally contest the state Canvassing Board's certification of final results."

as per TPM, it appears that Franken and coleman ha...

2009-01-02T22:49:00.000-05:00

as per TPM, it appears that Franken and coleman have come to an agreement on allowing a bunch of ballots to be counted, so we might have a resolution sooner than previously thought

I'm far more interested in how Bennet will vote on...

2009-01-02T21:19:00.000-05:00

I'm far more interested in how Bennet will vote on stem cell research,abortion,"don't ask,don't tell",etc.than his chances in 2010.

Tell me he's a liberal/progressive Democrat and I'll be happy.

larry, she's certainly qualified for it ;)captcha ...

2009-01-02T20:58:00.000-05:00

larry, she's certainly qualified for it ;)

captcha was "trusty"...interesting

Let me be the first to say"Chelsea Clinton for Pre...

2009-01-02T19:57:00.000-05:00

Let me be the first to say"

Chelsea Clinton for President in 2024!

@Brad:Yes, downstate IL is redder than OK. But IL...

2009-01-02T19:13:00.000-05:00

@Brad:

Yes, downstate IL is redder than OK. But IL is turning bluer anyway. This is coming from the Chicago burbs.

As an Illinoisan, I get the distinct feeling that ...

2009-01-02T19:09:00.000-05:00

As an Illinoisan, I get the distinct feeling that IL is turning temporarily redder at the state level, for obvious reasons. The state govt is dysfunctional, and under D control. Blago just brings the situation to a boil. We need to get pat Quinn in as soon as possible, hopefully with some decent Sen.
Burris definitely is a big problem, especially if he intends to try to keep the office. The old Cruz case (Burris persisted in trying to execute a man he knew was entirely innocent)has come up. I'd tried to forget that hideous episode.

Bloomie is running for a third mayoral term in 200...

2009-01-02T19:02:00.000-05:00

Bloomie is running for a third mayoral term in 2009.

it's hard to see him run in 2009 and then again, a year later, in 2010.

also, bloomie turns 67 next month. It's hard to run for president at age 75.

You would be surprised how red downstate IL is, an...

2009-01-02T18:59:00.000-05:00

You would be surprised how red downstate IL is, and how red Kane county can be again. I still think 2010 is not a continuation of 2006 and 2008 unless the dems really do something - like get the economy turned.

I mean't that I doubt Illinois is getting redder, ...

2009-01-02T18:47:00.000-05:00

I mean't that I doubt Illinois is getting redder, not that Mark Kirk will run for the senate.