Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Barack is, like, so popular!

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2009-09-11T07:36:46.172-04:00

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2009-03-11T22:14:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-11T22:14:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-15T02:52:00.000-05:00

@Acacia: Behind everywhere else? I don't think so....

2008-07-31T14:15:00.000-04:00

@Acacia: Behind everywhere else? I don't think so. The rest of the world has already decided that our next President is Barry Obama.

Thankfully, the American people (of whom the President is the representative, and of no other people), have a say in it.

While Obama celebrity is about as substantive as S...

2008-07-31T14:09:00.000-04:00

While Obama celebrity is about as substantive as Spears and Hilton, he has a long way to go on the young female sleaze factor.

Obama is like pR0n for spiritually vacuous, anti-metaphysical, historically naive, self-important moderns who desperately want to believe they can remake the world in the image of their enlightened, sophisticated world view.

But those people are still outnumbered by the hoi polloi who just want to gawk at Lindsey Lohan.

i'm probably not the first person to notice this, ...

2008-07-31T14:08:00.000-04:00

i'm probably not the first person to notice this, but obama leads in popularity in the US. he's behind everywhere else. someone should shop this story to the MSM, so they can in turn reassure voters that obama is an american phenomenon and not a german one. that is, as long as we're still talking about issues of no import to anyone with a brain and bills to pay.

"It amazes me that after all this time, you guys s...

2008-07-31T12:45:00.000-04:00

"It amazes me that after all this time, you guys still confuse Afghanistan with Iraq. [...] Do you really think all arabs are the same?"

Just in passing: Afghanistan is not an Arab country.

Maybe Larry Sinclair has been hiding one in his cl...

2008-07-31T11:08:00.000-04:00

Maybe Larry Sinclair has been hiding one in his closet?

Clearly, Obama needs to leak a dimly lit sex tape ...

2008-07-31T09:33:00.000-04:00

Clearly, Obama needs to leak a dimly lit sex tape and/or let the paparazzi catch him going out for a night on the town without wearing underwear.

Nate's not been trending so well. McCain/Hilton ma...

2008-07-31T01:02:00.000-04:00

Nate's not been trending so well. McCain/Hilton may yet catch down with him, but the 538 527's need to start swiftboating the rest of the field in a huge way, and SOON. Sad. So, so very sad.

http://www.google.com/trends?q=%22obama%22|%22barack%22|%22barack+obama%22%2C+%22britney+spears%22|%22spears%22|%22britney%22%2C+%22Paris+Hilton%22%2C+%22McCain%22|%22John+Mccain%22%2C%22FiveThirtyEight%22|%22Nate+Silver%22|%22Poblano%22|%22Nate%22&ctab=0&geo=all&date=2008&sort=0

"I would love to think that John McCain is a big i...

2008-07-30T23:56:00.000-04:00

"I would love to think that John McCain is a big international celebrity but he's not,"

Rick Davis -- McCain's campaign manager when discussing the new ad

The more I think about this ad, the more I realize how weak it is. McCain is jealous of Obama. Obama is a celebrity and he's not. I can understand how this can get under their skin. But ultimately its not Obama's fault that he is popular. Ultimately there is nothing wrong with being popular. You shouldn't vote for somebody because they are popular, but its just as stupid a reason to vote against somebody.

"Vote for me because I'm jealous of the other guy's popularity" is the most pathetic campaign slogan I have ever heard.

Envy and jealousy are not becoming in a guy that wants to be the leader of the free world.

Seriously, if this is the best McCain's team can up with, they really ought to just give the concession speech right now.

DarienCrow said:Bush went to war to avenge the Tow...

2008-07-30T23:36:00.000-04:00

DarienCrow said:
Bush went to war to avenge the Towers with an overwhelming 90% approval. It amazes me that 7 years later 40% of those people say now they were part of that 10%.

Here is a book for you. Just saw this writeup on Political Wire. Read the last paragraph. Seems there was NOT a high % of people in favor of going to war. We'll have to read the book to get more info:

Out in a couple days: The Opinion Makers: An Insider Exposes the Truth Behind the Polls by David W. Moore.

The author -- a former senior editor of the Gallup Poll -- says that today's opinion polls misfire due to an intrinsic methodological problem: survey results don't differentiate between "those who express deeply held views and those who have hardly, if at all, thought about an issue."

Specifically, Moore notes that in the period leading up to the invasion of Iraq, every major media poll showed substantial public support for a preemptive strike. In truth, there was no majority of Americans calling for war.

This seems even more interesting:http://www.google...

2008-07-30T22:02:00.000-04:00

This seems even more interesting:

http://www.google.com/trends?q=%22barack+obama%22%2C+%22hillary+clinton%22%2C+%22john+mccain%22%2C+%22george+bush%22&ctab=0&geo=all&date=ytd&sort=0

VACon,I like you. You're smart. You don't just rep...

2008-07-30T21:52:00.000-04:00

VACon,

I like you. You're smart. You don't just repeat back GOP talking points. You actually think about things before posting.

Apparently, one of McCain's old aides agrees with us. The Brittany ad is just stupid and counterproductive. Of course, I'm a Democrat so I hope he keeps running it. Its a great ad John. Why don't you use your whole budget on it?

This is from politicalwire.com

John Weaver, a long time confidant and friend of Sen. John McCain, told Marc Ambinder that McCain's current campaign strategy "diminishes John McCain" and the recent ad linking Sen. Barack Obama to Paris Hilton and Britney Spears was "childish."

Said Weaver: "For McCain to win in such troubled times, he needs to begin telling the American people how he intends to lead us. That McCain exists. He can inspire the country to greatness. There is legitimate mockery of a political campaign now, and it isn't at Obama's. For McCain's sake, this tomfoolery needs to stop."

You need to search right.http://www.google.com/tre...

2008-07-30T21:31:00.000-04:00

You need to search right.

http://www.google.com/trends?q=%22obama%22%7C%22barack%22%7C%22barack+obama%22%2C+%22britney+spears%22%7C%22spears%22%7C%22britney%22%2C+%22Paris+Hilton%22%2C+%22McCain%22%7C%22John+Mccain%22&ctab=0&geo=all&date=2008&sort=0

http://img237.imageshack.us/img237/346/bobssw1.png

Google allows you to OR search items using the OR operator "|". So try various combinations of BO, with BS, Paris Hilton and McCain - as in the above link.

Ofcourse no good way to break PH.

Thanks for the link to Google Trends. It helped e...

2008-07-30T20:40:00.000-04:00

Thanks for the link to Google Trends. It helped explain McCain's appearance in the dairy aisle: he was trying to bask in the reflected popularity of cheese.

http://xrl.in/azc

According to mancrush.com, Barack is 4th behind Je...

2008-07-30T20:06:00.000-04:00

According to mancrush.com, Barack is 4th behind Jesus Christ, Elvis, & George Washington

It's impossible to win by 1 EV unless an elector c...

2008-07-30T19:45:00.000-04:00

It's impossible to win by 1 EV unless an elector casts their vote for someone other than McCain or Obama (or doesn't vote at all).

I'll be the first Republican to say that ad was in...

2008-07-30T19:44:00.000-04:00

I'll be the first Republican to say that ad was incredibly stupid. Try harder, John. This just makes you look jealous.

Plus the Brittney Spears thing reminds people of Dole.

Several of those possibilities look very realistic...

2008-07-30T19:40:00.000-04:00

Several of those possibilities look very realistic to me.

I guess there is a decent point to investing in Omaha. Its hard for me to picture him winning Omaha unless Iowa is already won. Its also hard for me to picture him winning Colorado without winning New Mexico. I think the most likely Omaha matters scenario is Kerry + IO + VA - NH.

I'm not particularly worried about faithless electors or the house. I guess anything can happen though.

""That religion, of course, being environmentalism...

2008-07-30T19:37:00.000-04:00

""That religion, of course, being environmentalism, the altar at which they all worship""

Actually...the environment is a significant factor in why Obama is so much closer to McCain in the polls in Montana and the Dakotas then Democrats tend to be.

Another question. What does the simulator say is t...

2008-07-30T19:00:00.000-04:00

Another question. What does the simulator say is the exact probability of McCain winning by a single EV? I can't quite tell by the chart. If there was some obvious scenario that led to a single vote McCain win, I'd be more inclined to invest in Omaha.

A few possibilities, certainly not a definitive list:

Kerry + OH - NH
Kerry + IO + VA - NH
Kerry +CO + IN/MO -NH
Kerry + IO + CO

The scenario analysis has a 269-269 tie at 0.54%. I'd guess a 268-270 result has about the same likelihood. I'd also want an extra EV in case of a 269-269 result. Although it seems likely Obama would win in the House, I would not want to take my chances on wheeling and dealing or a faithless elector or even a mistake. Remember Kerry lost an EV in 2004 because someone wrote in Edwards, apparently by mistake.

Your point about Iowa is well taken, however. Unless it starts to tighten up, no reason to spend lots of money on ads there.

I assure you I am sane and obviously not stupid.Th...

2008-07-30T18:51:00.000-04:00

I assure you I am sane and obviously not stupid.

That's exactly what a stupid insane person would say!

"The cost of advertising has to be cheap and TV ad...

2008-07-30T18:47:00.001-04:00

"The cost of advertising has to be cheap and TV ads in Iowa would also reach this district. I wouldn't write it off yet."

That district is basically Omaha. I decent part of the Omaha suburbs are in Iowa so I could see running a couple ads there.

It sort of depends on whether McCain bothers to campaign in Iowa. I've gotten every indication they've already written it off. Obama already has a far better ground game in place for Iowa since McCain skipped it during the primaries and Obama spent about 6 months there. If McCain doesn't challenge it (and I think he would be stupid if he did), I don't see Obama spending much money in Iowa. Just run the ground game without the air. I think the ROI in Montana and North Dakota is far better than Omaha.

Another question. What does the simulator say is the exact probability of McCain winning by a single EV? I can't quite tell by the chart. If there was some obvious scenario that led to a single vote McCain win, I'd be more inclined to invest in Omaha.

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Barack is, like, *so* popular!