Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Third and Unfortunately Last Poker Update

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2009-10-12T03:42:02.791-04:00

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2009-08-28T02:21:09.712-04:00

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2009-08-03T23:16:05.054-04:00

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Jesus Christmas ... 10 words into your re-raise ma...

2009-07-27T16:01:23.913-04:00

Jesus Christmas ... 10 words into your re-raise manifesto it was a clear fold situation. No one of quality poker skills ever, ever, EVER goes over raise/re-raise players preflop with A-K, A-Q or any other non-pair. Nor do they do so with anything smaller than Jacks.

The only way a solid player does that without having a wired pair J-J or better is if he has been bone-dry for hours, has had his stack all but vanish and feels the need to make a move while there are chips in the pot.

Easiest fold ever. You must have been tired, desperate or both.

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2009-07-22T05:21:34.740-04:00

Nate, your math and tournament theory was spot on ...

2009-07-19T13:57:21.500-04:00

Nate, your math and tournament theory was spot on though it was frustrating to see that your understanding of the meta game was 2 years out of date (understandable as that was the last time you were a regular in the player pool).

My two quibbles were a) better player don't fold as much on an A82 rainbow flop anymore. Everyone expects people to continuation bet their entire range there so they float, bluff raise and call down with marginal holdings like 99. It takes at least 2 bets and sometimes 3 to win on that flop texture a lot. Its higher variance but if you bet, it has to be with the intention of betting again and not a one and done type thing.

b) your cold 4-bet range assigned in your bust out hand was too wide. The 4-bettor has some air in his range, but his value range looks pretty much like QQ+ and maybe AK. Also most people don't balance well in that spot and have nearly as much air as they should. I was reading all your analysis and nodding, except when you got to assigning your equity it was probably closer to 25-30% against his range than the optimistic 35-45% you gave yourself.

@David, FTW. If you call the $2,500, you have $45...

2009-07-16T15:11:02.713-04:00

@David, FTW. If you call the $2,500, you have $45,000 left with a pot of $6,500 and position (we don't know about the QQ yet). By raising to $7,500, if the kid calls you'll have $40,000 and a pot of $16,500, at which point any bet you make on the flop will put you in a very nasty situation if he then goes all-in.

It sucks that a top ten(?) hand is reduced to set-mining/bluff catching, but so be it.

The only difficulty with a call is what to do when QQ raises, as you won't have odds or position to set-mine. The way the hand played out here, though, it's a clear fold. Someone above mentioned the position of the rereraiser, and that was what swayed me when I read your account. If a good player is forfeiting their positional advantage by going all-in, that likely means they've got the goods pre-flop.

Sorry, Nate. Another poker pro here. I have to agr...

2009-07-15T07:29:55.176-04:00

Sorry, Nate. Another poker pro here. I have to agree with the others above and say this is an easy, easy fold. A 4-bet not from the blinds, from a strong player (and not a maniac), gives you a range of a big pair plus maybe AK (but probably not). Certainly AQ is not in the range, as any decent player would insta-muck AQ there.

The value of your tournament life, plus the fact that you are so far behind his range, makes folding 100% the right move.

But lets say that you did have 40% equity in the hand. I know you said you would be willing to risk it on a gamble. However, this is a very common error in many players' games. As you know, it is not a cash game, and the calculation of pot odds for all of your chips is just not the same thing as when you can rebuy.

Please, please reconsider folding when you think you are getting such a price in the future.

I think some people have forgotten that Nate is no...

2009-07-14T22:03:32.201-04:00

I think some people have forgotten that Nate is not an average amateur and does not need to be lectured about basic poker concepts. After all, he did play poker for a living for a pretty long time, and was a prolific 2p2 poster.

Despite being a limit holdem cash game player, he is still a very heavy favorite over the majority of posters here in a no limit tournament. See Matt Hawrilenko (hoss_tbf)

All in with 9s? What a donk. Stick to sticking t...

2009-07-13T21:13:48.640-04:00

All in with 9s? What a donk. Stick to sticking the rich for the cost of health insurance for obese people. Oh, and thanks for the higher interest rates under Obama.

One more thing, you always hear tournament pros ta...

2009-07-13T18:37:06.053-04:00

One more thing, you always hear tournament pros talk about how they will sometimes "wait for a better spot." The thing is most players raise too much preflop because they are afraid of playing postflop. What the best pros do is they play more hands than the average player, but they raise with all of them. They can get away with this by raising smaller like 2.5BB or less and they do it with their entire range. Imagine how hard it is to play against someone who could literally have ANY two cards when they raise.

My main point is this, rather than commit to 99, at your stack size you could try to steal the blinds and antes 5 times for the cost of reraising with the 99. Maybe you get caught raising with 35suited under-the-gun, so what? If they reraise you, you simply fold, if they smooth call then you still have a chance to hit a huge and well-disguised hand on the flop and maybe stack an opponent who can't put you on a straight when the flop comes 4-6-7 or trips when it comes K-5-5. If you keep your raise size small, the steal value alone will pay for the raise if it works about half the time.

Then lets say an opponent calls from one of the blinds, hands only connect with the flop about a third of the time so mostly everyone misses most flops. When you raise with your entire range of hands including a certain number of trashy ones, you end up playing a lot more pots heads up with position and initiative. So what happens is you get to see what your opponent does before you act. More information means you are always playing with the advantage.

Calling the 4bet was only a very small mistake due...

2009-07-13T18:18:50.571-04:00

Calling the 4bet was only a very small mistake due to the pot odds. There were two big mistakes in the hand:

1) Thinking you were short-stacked--although you had only half of an average stack, the blinds were still relatively small in relation to your stack, so there was no need to play a large pot with a marginal hand.

2) Reraising with the 99 was likely a mistake, with a 50BB stack, 99 still has plenty of implied odds and if you flop an overpair you can try to use position postflop to win a small pot but still get away if your opponent has you crushed. On dry boards, you can also smooth call your opponent on the flop and see if he checks the turn in which case a small bluff takes down the pot, or if you get lucky and your hand improves you might stack him.

When you get shortstacked, you are forced to make more moves and basically pretend that hands like 99 and AQo are the nuts, but you aren't really there yet until you get below 20BBs or so.

If you are interested in playing deepstacked tournaments, I would pick up Daniel Negreanu's "Power Holdem Strategy" which is the best treatise on the small ball style which most of the best pro players in the world use. Negreanu, Ivey, Mizrachi, Hellmust, Hansen, they all use a variation of small ball.

The math supports it because it reduces variance and takes advantage of position (and thus being able to control pot size) and it allows you to exploit your opponents postflop. In other words, since you are playing most of your pots in position you are always playing with more information than your opponents. You play their hands more than the cards you hold. Since I started learning this style, I've won about 40K in two months (admittedly been running a little hot too, but I've avoided many spots that old me would've busted).

Anyway, I busted on an optional move that I could have passed up on also, so don't feel too bad.

Nate, Enjoyed your post. For the record, your mis...

2009-07-12T14:27:20.388-04:00

Nate,

Enjoyed your post. For the record, your mistake in the hand was your reraise preflop, where you made a limit Hold 'Em play in a No Limit Hold 'Em tournament. Your stack size in relation to the raise (47,500 to a 2,500 initial raise) made your hand a pretty standard flat-call. Nines in this spot are good for one of two things: set-mining (where you'd prefer the stacks to be deep in relation to the post-flop pot) and winning small-to-medium sized pots when your pair holds up against two overcards. Initiating a preflop shootout turns your situation into a very very marginal one.

Once someone cold four-bets you, it's time to dump your hand. Your opponent's range is going to be QQ+ and AK, meaning playing for stacks is break-even at best. Depending on how your opponent treats AK in this spot, you may not even have that much value here.

My advice to you would be to make your choices with a plan in mind. Before you make a reraise like the one you made in this hand, you need to think about whether or not you're comfortable playing nines for all your chips if someone shoves over the top of you. If you're not, don't commit yourself with a three-bet.

What a donkey

2009-07-11T16:41:19.279-04:00

What a donkey

Three rather obvious points: 1) Nate clearly do...

2009-07-11T16:39:39.290-04:00

Three rather obvious points:
1) Nate clearly doesn't have the magic number of 10,000 hours of poker practice that he needs to be competitive in this environment.
2) If you actually consider the "cost" of playing another day in the world's most popular poker tournament, you don't belong there in the first place.
3) Like lots of amateurs, he over-thought his last hand as it was simply a binary decision: stay in and likely bust out or fold and keep playing.

It's a bad play from Nate and a bad justification ...

2009-07-11T09:15:22.723-04:00

It's a bad play from Nate and a bad justification because he's not including information he had going in. I won a 150 person, 100-dollar buy-in tourney 5 years ago, and at one point in the tournament I WAS the short stock. But, because I'm used to being a grinder on the tables, I waited, picked my spot, and kept alive.

Nate had to have know he was drawing dead. Given his chip situation and his commitment to play the hand, he should have gone all-in after the loose raise. With a short stack calling such a raise, you're sending a signal that youre not that confident in your hand but you'd go all in.

Queens would still call, assuming he had a good many more chips than Nate. But there are better odds he doesnt

The threebet is bad and calling off your stack was...

2009-07-11T06:11:46.678-04:00

The threebet is bad and calling off your stack was terrible. He is never showing up with AQ and if he's a good online player and realises you are tight, he's not all that likely to have AK either. I wouldn't. Easy fold, but hey, if you fish never made a bad call, there'd be no money in poker.

Tight guy 4-bets and you get it in with 99? I didn...

2009-07-11T04:21:13.654-04:00

Tight guy 4-bets and you get it in with 99? I didn't know the main event became a hyper-turbo...

Honestly, this makes me question whether Nate is a...

2009-07-10T21:35:44.597-04:00

Honestly, this makes me question whether Nate is actually a good poker player. This wasn't really a good play. I mean really, that is a situation you can't be calling with a marginal 99 with. On a reraise its either AK (Nate a 55/45 favorite) or NAte is domianted. Dominated is much more likely. Math says you need 3.5 to 1 odds to call there. you didn't have them, and your done.

I don't like the poker play. Moreover, if the guy...

2009-07-10T21:24:45.901-04:00

I don't like the poker play.

Moreover, if the guy folding earlier does have AJ this is bad news for you. Him having AJ move the number of possible AK from 16 to 12, while moving the number of AA from 6 to 3. And if you consider AQ in his range you also go from 16 to 12 on that. So the early person folding an A is bad for you (I.e., if you saw him flash you an A as he folded, you should be more likely to fold, not less).

Moreover against an early raise and reraise for a tight player I think AQs is not in the range. I'm not even sure AK is in the range. A tight player will have KK+ or QQ+. A slightly looser player will have JJ+,AK. Remember you are seeing a raise, a reraise, and then this move. That is very strong.

Nate, I loved this post. However, I have to disagr...

2009-07-10T20:19:39.597-04:00

Nate, I loved this post. However, I have to disagree with your logic. Your math is accurate as always, but I think you need to look at the hand from the "good player's" perspective.

He being a good player was able to read you (and Harry Arms) just as well (or better) than you can read him. Therefore, he knew from your bet that you had a medium pocket or suited A-face (K, Q). He probably thought there was a small chance you could be underplaying a high pocket, but considering you rely heavily on the math (which this guy probably picked up on), he knew it was not likely.

There are three possibilities here:
A) He believes he has the best hand and either wants to win the pot to not get out drawn or make the pot worth taking the risk to take out an opponent.
B) He isn't sure he has the best hand but wants to try and "buy" the pot knowing he has position and a decent stack.
C) He doesn't think he has the best hand and is bluffing.

I would give the odds (based on what you said in the story) as 75, 23, 2 (respectively). He is a good player and knows that risking B with two raisers is something only to do "occasionally" and bluffing with two raisers is "very rare" especially with you being low stacked and needing to push soon.

I would also say that in scenario B, you might have the winning hand about half to two thirds of the time. I doubt he would risk this situation with less than AK suited, and probably nothing less than pocket 7s.

So looking at it from his hand and eveluating how he would play in differnt senarios, I would guess you really only had a 15-20% chance of not being seriously down (only 20% odds of winning the hand). Even if you 80% odds when you are up (15-20% from above), you only had about 30% odds on the hand at best. But that is the estimate of a Monday night quarterback. Well done anyway!

I thought the poker fatigue may have gotten to Nat...

2009-07-10T19:24:07.619-04:00

I thought the poker fatigue may have gotten to Nate when he said "Third" poker update, because I could only find two under the "poker" label, but then I clicked on "gambling" and remembered his pre-flight post. Nice articles, Nate, I eat this kind of stuff right up.

Some tough love for Nate here. I certainly agree ...

2009-07-10T18:46:57.969-04:00

Some tough love for Nate here.

I certainly agree with much of the poker commentary and fear sounding like an "unprofessional" poker player, but - anyone who's played a home game with too-slow blind raises can tell you sometimes you're willing go for a coin flip because you just. can't. take. any. more ...

@salt_bagel Great point about the equity of playin...

2009-07-10T17:30:12.570-04:00

@salt_bagel Great point about the equity of playing vs. equity of everything else.

BTW: I should have looked harder: "" A sample of...

2009-07-10T15:21:12.608-04:00

BTW: I should have looked harder:

""
A sample of 9,998 members was drawn from the AAAS membership list excluding those who were not based in the United States or whose membership type identified them as primary or secondary-level educators.

Founded in 1848, AAAS is the world’s largest general scientific society, and includes members representing all scientific fields. AAAS publishes Science, one of the most widely circulated peer-reviewed scientific journals in the world. Membership in AAAS is open to all.
""

So, a 'scientist' is a member of AAAS. My second question still holds, however.