Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: This Post Brought to You by Poker

Hey, you have a nice blog here. Nice for share thi...

2009-10-07T12:39:40.249-04:00

Hey, you have a nice blog here. Nice for share this post. Keep up the good work. Really interesting stuff. That's one thing I'm really looking forward. Looking forward to reading more from you. Thanks for info and good day for You. Till next time.

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I recently came accross your blog and have been re...

2009-08-25T03:36:56.583-04:00

I recently came accross your blog and have been reading along. I thought I would leave my first comment. I dont know what to say except that I have enjoyed reading. Nice blog. I will keep visiting this blog very often.

Margaret

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@Ken: As a rough estimate, the "median" player fr...

2009-07-07T15:20:32.767-04:00

@Ken: As a rough estimate, the "median" player from 1D has about 35,000 chips at this time, so Nate's a lot farther above the median than he is above the mean. Roughly speaking, since his name is on the 2nd page of 7 pages of listed chip counts, he's within the top third of starters, and not much lower than that among survivors.

But there are some super large winners in this round, perhaps partly because this was the largest starting group? And some of the survivors are all but dead at this time.

Nate Silver 61550 Will be cheering you on during ...

2009-07-07T14:46:09.887-04:00

Nate Silver 61550

Will be cheering you on during day 2B!

sup bro! Tourney forum trip report, please. Good...

2009-07-07T13:40:56.388-04:00

sup bro!

Tourney forum trip report, please.

Good luck, Nate. Flop well.

Nate Silver, chip count of 61550 after day 1d. Gi...

2009-07-07T12:08:24.007-04:00

Nate Silver, chip count of 61550 after day 1d. Given the initial chip count of 30000 and approximately 1/3 of the entrants busted out so far, he is doing slightly better than average. Good luck on Wednesday.

Official entries 6,494 with an estimated $8.5M to ...

2009-07-07T10:45:30.114-04:00

Official entries 6,494 with an estimated $8.5M to the winner. I will be looking for you at the final table in November.

(Why did they come up with that screwy format? TV ratings?)

"Imagine the brain power (like yours) wasted" Oh ...

2009-07-07T01:28:56.522-04:00

"Imagine the brain power (like yours) wasted"

Oh goodness. Burn all the televisions while you're at it, ok? No hours wasted there. And sports? Grown men running around on fields playing children's games? We can't have that waste of physical talent. Ban it!

"Would love to see a numerical look at the affect of gambling on the average online gambler's bank account."

This is very simple. The average player loses at a rate determined by the house rake. Like in all competitive games, for every win there is a loss.

The UIGEA did more than its fair share to cleanse ...

2009-07-06T12:05:33.285-04:00

The UIGEA did more than its fair share to cleanse the online fish pool. At the same time though the explosion of advanced information was just beginning(i.e. online training, ICM, etc.), this part also helped busto the smart fish who may have still be profitable in the pre-UIGEA era. There were many big multitabling winners in those days who really weren't that good, but leaked slow enough to crush the mass amounts of completely terrible idiots.

At any rate Nate tha' Great is a legend at 4 to all us old timers.

Maybe bump into you at the series.

Play Good.
DERB

I hope for your and our sake they keep it illegal....

2009-07-05T23:54:19.309-04:00

I hope for your and our sake they keep it illegal. Imagine the brain power (like yours) wasted trying to make cash online by working those meaningless numbers while they take money from likely poor gambling addicts and college kids who want to strike it rich quick.

Would love to see a numerical look at the affect of gambling on the average online gambler's bank account. But of course, every online gambler made tons of money during that period (so i hear, wow--everyone was a winner!), so there's really no need to worry.

Join thousands of poker players across the country...

2009-07-05T21:41:44.432-04:00

Join thousands of poker players across the country who are
raising their voices to keep the US' most popular game legal. On July 22, during National Poker Week, the Poker Players Alliance will present this
petition to the President, asking his support to exempt poker from the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act (UIGEA), and for the legalization and regulation of online poker.

http://www.pokerpetition.com/

An interesting article on Baseball Prospectus, wri...

2009-07-05T12:57:41.280-04:00

An interesting article on Baseball Prospectus, written by Nate when he was apparently inspired by Moneymaker's win at the WSoP in 2003.

Nate Silver, "Moneymaker (or, Everything I Need to Know about Baseball I Learned From Watching the World Series of Poker)," BaseballProspectus.com, September 3, 2003.

I too, made a decent second income before the 2006...

2009-07-05T09:56:16.798-04:00

I too, made a decent second income before the 2006 legislation, but for me, it was blackjack, not poker. I'm hoping that if new legislation is passed, it's not only poker.

While blackjack has less "skill", it's also less of a gamble than other non-poker games for a skilled player that can keep emotion and adrenaline out of it.

The bonuses available online, and the lack of tipping the dealer, made it pretty easy to produce a consistent income, albeit without the psychological rush that comes with psyching out the others at the table.

WSoP or WTF? Take a look at this fascinating devel...

2009-07-05T00:45:29.200-04:00

WSoP or WTF? Take a look at this fascinating development: "WSOP: Day 1a Chipleader Eric Cloutier Facing 15 Felony Charges."

I can guarantee that, aside from the enjoyable con...

2009-07-04T11:46:01.639-04:00

I can guarantee that, aside from the enjoyable conversation, you would not want a rusty Mr. Silver at your initial table at the WSoP. There are still huge numbers of really bad, easy to exploit, loose-passive and loose-aggressive players left.

That said, he's correct that online play has become much harder after the UIGEA and the culling of many of the biggest cash machines from the player pool. I made far more money when i first started back in late 2004 than i do currently, even though i'm a much better player now. Man, do i miss the Limit Holdem sit-n-goes from Empire/Party Poker.

I'm curious how much money the UIGEA has cost me. Many of the bad players were going to leave eventually, anyway, but the UIGEA sped that along.

I agree with others that Nate should use his power to get online poker legalized. I don't know if approaching it from the tax dollars that go unclaimed is the best approach or not. The PPA needs a swift kick in the ass and Mr. Silver has the boot that can provide that impetus.

Fri, 03 Jul 2009 18:29:12 Day 1a Official Number...

2009-07-04T09:28:38.666-04:00

Fri, 03 Jul 2009 18:29:12

Day 1a Official Numbers (Main Event)

The official number of entrants for Day 1a is (drumroll please...) 1,116 entrants. By comparison, 1,297 players entered the Main Event on Day 1a in 2008, 1,287 played Day 1a in 2007 and 2,138 played Day 1a in 2006.

Everyone always talks about the poker players that...

2009-07-04T00:57:18.025-04:00

Everyone always talks about the poker players that were hurt by UIGEA but sports bettors were hurt even worse. Neteller closed down shortly thereafter, and the BS arrests of David Carruthers and other top BetOnSports officials caused all the European sportsbooks as well as some of the Latin American sportsbooks to leave the market. In a flash, Mansion, bet365, BoS, Ladbrokes, William Hill, and Pinnacle were all gone to Americans.

I will always have enmity for the PPA for disassociating themselves from sports bettors when trying to repeal the UIGEA. Both poker players and sports bettors are in the same boat. We need to pool our resources and fight this together instead of denouncing the other and going it alone.

On a side note, I don't know how anyone could continue to play online poker after the superuser scandals at Absolute Poker and Ultimate Bet. Two of the biggest poker sites on the web grift players out of millions and players still maintain with the utmost confidence that these sites are all on the up and up. Craziness.

See you at the Rio, then! Good luck, but not if yo...

2009-07-04T00:51:09.777-04:00

See you at the Rio, then! Good luck, but not if you're at my table.

Good luck! Win the big bucks!

2009-07-03T23:45:16.169-04:00

Good luck! Win the big bucks!

After reading all the comments, I have to respond ...

2009-07-03T17:05:58.091-04:00

After reading all the comments, I have to respond to this notion that poker is a contract between a fool and a conman. No, you're talking about games like slots, video poker, roulette, blackjack, and any other game in the casino other than competitive poker. The former is gambling, because the house always has the advantage, and nothing you can do can prevent you from losing money in the long run.

Competitive poker (like Hold 'em, Omaha, etc.) is different because the house doesn't have an advantage. Instead they make money on rakes or entrance fees. (And this is much less profitable for the casino than the true gambling games.) It's also different because if you're skilled enough, you will win. If you aren't skilled enough, you can play for lower stakes (with less-skilled people) or you can practice, study, and increase your skills. In the end, competitive poker isn't much different than competition in the marketplace. Skilled capitalists will prosper, while unskilled capitalists will flounder. Does that mean the unskilled ones are suckers? Of course not.

Seeing how much poker resembles capitalism, it's surprising how many Republicans are opposed to it. I can only guess that they are mistakenly lumping it in with gambling, or else are pandering to their similarly ignorant constituents.

Note that by "in the end" I meant over the course ...

2009-07-03T16:38:28.793-04:00

Note that by "in the end" I meant over the course of many tournaments or many hands. Obviously Phil Hellmuth does not win every tournament. And the sheer number and variety of entrants in the WSOP main event makes it enormously difficult to advance to the final table.

Yes! A post about poker! It's great to read about ...

2009-07-03T16:26:38.281-04:00

Yes! A post about poker! It's great to read about your poker past and how it gave rise to FiveThirtyEight. And good luck in the WSOP! Which events are you entering? I hope they spotlight you in the coverage. BTW, the first time I saw Tom Dwan on Poker After Dark, I thought it was you!

I wish you didn't refer to poker as gambling. Poker is a game of skill that only incorporates gambling. It has much more variability than other games, which gives the illusion that it's gambling. A skilled poker player might lose in the short term, but will win in the long term over less skilled players. You may beat Phil Hellmuth in a few games, but in the end he'll take all your money. A poker neophyte may beat me in a few games, but in the end I'm going to take all of his or her money.

Good luck Nate! I have a whole bunch of your posts...

2009-07-03T15:30:50.496-04:00

Good luck Nate! I have a whole bunch of your posts still stored away in a folder somewhere - invaluable advice!

Time for a Vegas meetup? Next weekend? Friday or...

2009-07-03T15:24:00.783-04:00

Time for a Vegas meetup? Next weekend? Friday or saturday night? I'll be in Vegas and would love to have a drink or 3 with 538 readers and the man himself.

Anyway, Nate, which day are you playing? I'm star...

2009-07-03T15:09:05.725-04:00

Anyway, Nate, which day are you playing? I'm starting on Monday, Day 1D, at Brasilia 175.

I'll have mixed feelings if you're at my table. I'm sure that even with a little rust, you're well above average for the field, but on the other hand, it'd be cool to meet you. :)

Good luck, and I'll hope to see you at the final table.