Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Barack Obama Crushed John McCain in Nevada

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2009-10-02T06:46:49.940-04:00

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2009-03-31T22:12:00.000-04:00

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2009-03-12T06:00:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-12T06:00:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-09T06:22:00.000-05:00

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2009-02-08T22:04:00.000-05:00

That's because we FLOODED Clark County with Obama ...

2008-11-06T13:55:00.000-05:00

That's because we FLOODED Clark County with Obama volunteers/canvasers, many of whom came from California (including me)!

It was inspiring to be part of the ground game in Las Vegas on the final weekend - an experience I will never forget. After having participated, I can say with confidence that our GOTV efforts made a HUGE effort in Clark County, Nevada. I applaud the organizers and leader there who worked the area for much longer than I did!

Not if Obama won in Indiana . . . that was leaning...

2008-11-06T03:04:00.000-05:00

Not if Obama won in Indiana . . . that was leaning McCain in the final model.

So 538.com turned out to be almost perfect but with a tiny Republican lean.

Think back, if you will, to the big model change way back before the DNC when pie chart started looking like a blue PacMan. At the time it seemed outlandish - like lefty poll porn - even non-trolls ridiculed it. Quite amazing how the combination of all those tweaks to the model were so dead-on.

And it took guts - the scorn heaped on wrong predictions can be merciless.

In both the election and the projection, intelligence, integrity and courage came through. Life is good.

I acknowledged 3 years ago on Nov. 4th, 2005 that ...

2008-11-05T14:10:00.000-05:00

I acknowledged 3 years ago on Nov. 4th, 2005 that Nevada would go Blue by 2008 in this rather virulent article I wrote announcing Nevada Divorces Red State Jesusland. The reason is similar to California. The consistently democratic leaning Clark County was projected to have a higher population than all the other 16 counties combined before 2008. As we all know, more urban areas typically lean democrat..

All hail Nate Silver, Seer of Seers, Sage of Sages...

2008-11-05T13:57:00.000-05:00

All hail Nate Silver, Seer of Seers, Sage of Sages, Prognosticator of Prognosticators and Election Prophet Extraordinary!

For the first time, I can say I'm PROUD to be a Ne...

2008-11-05T10:09:00.000-05:00

For the first time, I can say I'm PROUD to be a Nevadan!

Wow -- you guys would not believe the wild dream I...

2008-11-05T09:50:00.000-05:00

Wow -- you guys would not believe the wild dream I had last night.

Or maybe you would! :-)

I knew Obama was going to crush McCain in NV. I w...

2008-11-05T08:16:00.000-05:00

I knew Obama was going to crush McCain in NV. I was making phone calls to NV all day on Saturday to get out the vote and the postivite response was overwhelming!

Now it's time for EVERYONE to get to work and help this man. It's going to take all of us to fix this mess and there will be plenty of people trying to put up obstacles.

Alaska. Apparently they like their criminal polit...

2008-11-05T08:01:00.000-05:00

Alaska. Apparently they like their criminal politicians up there. You Betcha! *wink*

Thank you, Sean. Your daily stories of what was go...

2008-11-05T07:03:00.000-05:00

Thank you, Sean. Your daily stories of what was going on in Obama field offices around the country helped push me out the door to drive to PA.

Brett's wonderful photos made it that much more real.

Thanks so much.

Of all the states Obama carried, I was most cheere...

2008-11-05T05:27:00.000-05:00

Of all the states Obama carried, I was most cheered by the Nevada result (especially the margin). The state director there, Terrence Tolbert died over the weekend at the age of 44.

Great job T.

Shortly after I started going to UNLV the stereo i...

2008-11-05T03:48:00.000-05:00

Shortly after I started going to UNLV the stereo in my car broke so I started bringing my ipod and listening to podcasts. I always listened to Barack Obama’s podcast first. They were always short, between 5 and 20 minutes, and they came out frustratingly infrequently, and they were far and away my favorite. He spoke with clarity and a quiet confidence and I always felt inspired.

This was a man who understood what needed to be fixed and how to fix it. This was a man who cared deeply about improving the United States and had the means to do so. He was thoughtful and intelligent and intellectually curious. Mired in the anti-intellectualism of the George W. Bush presidency here was a bright spot of a man who thought about things the same way I did, who was actually doing the things I’d only thought about. I was inspired and I wanted him to be president.

Along with inspiration though, I felt frustration. I thought it would never happen. He was brand new to Washington, he was black, and everyone was talking about Hillary. Plus he was who I wanted and for 8 years what I found inspiring had been a pretty poor indicator of what the American people found inspiring. At the time it didn’t appear he would even run.
But then he ran, and he came from behind to beat out Hillary Clinton, John McCain, and all the attacks from the right (Really Sean Hannity? Reading from the Communist manifesto? Really??

People were talking about how they teared up watching the results, or his acceptance speech, or the commentary, or the crowd, I didn’t. But as I sat quietly and remembered how I felt listening to those podcasts, the inspiration and the frustration, I finally did. The long-shot, the black man whose middle name is Hussein, who is extremely intelligent, who genuinely cares about improving the country, will be our next president.

Congratulations Barack, I can’t wait.

No win in Missouri this time. Unless there are as ...

2008-11-05T03:11:00.000-05:00

No win in Missouri this time. Unless there are as many provisional ballots as they say. http://www.sos.mo.gov/enrweb/allresults.asp?eid=256

Franken now up 2,000 votes.....

2008-11-05T03:07:00.000-05:00

Franken now up 2,000 votes.....

A celebratory mood tonight on the Las Vegas Strip....

2008-11-05T03:05:00.000-05:00

A celebratory mood tonight on the Las Vegas Strip. All day long I was walking the strip between the Tropicana and the Wynn (both sides of the street) wearing a foot tall red white and blue hat and a couple of signs promoting my movie and book (which also has the potential to be a terrific Las Vegas show CUTTING CONFESSIONS) and most people I encountered were happy (aside from those numerous losers who don't know how to control their vices, which is death in Las Vegas.) Planet Hollywood (the old Aladdin) featured CNN's election coverage on one of its huge outdoor televisions that rise above the strip and people were transfixed as Barack Obama gave his speech and there was applause at various points. One individual, a young good looking black man, was driving his BMW convertible down the street honking and waving an Obama/Biden sign in the air. Even McCain supporters who talked to me were polite (possibly because I make extra effort at all times to be polite-after all, I want people to read my work and need to make a good impression by not being pushy) and most people were feeling pretty okay, even though a lot of them weren't visibly thinking about the election. Overall, the Las Vegas Strip was a really terrific place to be today.

CUTTING CONFESSIONS a very unusual fate driven love story-another, but different One Flew Over The Cuckoos Nest:

www.cuttingconfessionsfilm.blogspot.com

www.myspace.com/370392338

I am thrilled for Barack Obama and hope to follow in his footsteps as a man who when faced with a difficult task and long odds rised admirably to the ocassion. In that way, just as Barack Obama, it is my hope Tamar (the real life girl in this unusual love story) and myself can be inspirations to others through the story which is unusual but that is often true of stories that become classics, which is my hope for this story just as my hope for Barack Obama is that he will live up to his potential and bring us together in a positive way.

To quote the great Denny Green: "They are who we ...

2008-11-05T03:04:00.000-05:00

To quote the great Denny Green: "They are who we thought they were!"

Thankfully, we didn't let 'em off the hook.

I can't thank you guys enough for getting it right and for the peace of mind you provided this Obama voter.

Smackdown delivered!

I just looked out my window again. Looks like anot...

2008-11-05T03:03:00.000-05:00

I just looked out my window again. Looks like another 200 people have joined in. Two bands now performing. God bless America!

Too bad some of this joy will be tempered tomorrow by Prop 8 passing. The fight goes on.

Verification word: yestra. "Yestra-day," John McCain had a 1.1 percent chance of winning. Now he has none.

I think Nate might have collasped in an exhaustive...

2008-11-05T03:02:00.000-05:00

I think Nate might have collasped in an exhaustive heap at the keyboard...with his computer screen spamming: wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww

I just checked the estimates against the actual re...

2008-11-05T03:01:00.000-05:00

I just checked the estimates against the actual result (except for Montana, Nevada, and the Nebraska congressional districts, which are still coming in). They're very accurate; most estimates are comfortably well inside the margin of error, with some straying out as you get into double-digit points victories (e.g. Obama won DC by 86 points as opposed to 538's estimate of 60). The popular vote is within a percent too.

The best prop 8 source seen to be on cnn. So far,...

2008-11-05T03:00:00.000-05:00

The best prop 8 source seen to be on cnn. So far, it's not looking good. We worked very hard to GOTV against Prop 8, but it always been an uphill battle against the Utah money machine. It's a sad day when a discrimination amendment can be bought by big money.

Before anyone suggests otherwise, I don't consider a campaign funded by small contributions to be bought, only ones by big money.

WV plike: Utah money smells plike